内部控制、公司治理与管理者舞弊研究——基于中国上市公司的数据信息分析

本文对2005-2010年因管理舞弊而受到中国证监会、上海和深圳证券交易所、财政部以及其他单位公开处罚的非金融类上市公司进行了实证研究,结果发现企业的内部控制质量与管理人员的舞弊概率显著负相关;其次,通过在模型中引入相关公司治理变量,本文还发现合理的公司治理机制不仅能够直接降低管理人员舞弊行为的概率,而且作为内部控制的环境因素,可以有效地提高企业内部控制的整体质量,使其更好地发挥抑制管理人员舞弊行为的作用。     

公司治理与财务舞弊关系的经验分析

以财务舞弊上市公司为研究对象，以董事会构成和所有权结构作为公司治理变量，研究公司治理和财务舞弊之间的可能关系。研究发现，发生财务舞弊与未发生财务舞弊上市公司董事会中外部董事比例不存在显著差异；股权集中度越高的上市公司越容易发生财务舞弊；控股股东性质与财务舞弊行为不存在显著相关性。研究还发现，上市公司配股活动与财务舞弊显著负相关、公司规模与财务舞弊显著负相关、董事会规模与财务舞弊显著正相关。     

内部控制、公司治理与管理者舞弊研究——基于中国上市公司的数据信息分析

本文对2005-2010年因管理舞弊而受到中国证监会、上海和深圳证券交易所、财政部以及他单位公开处罚的非金融类上市公司进行了实证研究，结果发现企业的内部控制质量与管理人员的舞弊概率显著负相关；其次，通过在模型中引入相关公司治理变量，本文还发现合理的公司治理机制不仅能够直接降低管理人员舞弊行为的概率，而且作为内部控制的环境因素，可以有效地提高企业内部控制的整体质量。使其更好地发挥抑制管理人员舞弊行为的作用。     

监督抑或跟随：机构投资者治理角色研究——来自舞弊公司机构持股行为的经验证据

文章利用被中国证券监管部门处罚的舞弊公司及未舞弊公司为对象,考察机构投资者在公司治理中是扮演监督者还是跟随者角色。研究发现,从公司舞弊前一季度到后一季度机构投资者并未减持舞弊公司股份,不具备舞弊预测与识别能力;机构投资者倾向于利用分析师评级结果进行投资决策;机构投资者容易被舞弊公司误导,而分析师评级则有助于减轻机构投资者被误导程度。结果表明,目前机构投资者更多扮演着跟随分析师的消极角色而非有效监督者的积极角色,分析师评级具有一定的决策有用性。     

信息披露监管的外部性——同行信息传递与市场学习

本文使用2001—2008年中国A股上市公司为样本,以信息披露违规公司的处罚公告为切入点,从信息披露监管外部性的角度,研究信息披露监管的有效性。实证结果表明,同行竞争者对处罚公告产生显著的信息传递效应,并且信息传递效应的程度与公司会计信息质量显著正相关,这说明监管当局对违规公司查处的信息披露监管产生了显著的外部性,并且这种外部性与会计信息质量显著正相关。同时,本文还发现会计信息质量的改进与同行公司对处罚公告的市场反应显著负相关,说明信息披露监管的外部性对公司信息披露行为有显著影响,使同行公司管理者在这一过程中产生了显著的市场学习行为。本文丰富了信息披露监管及其外部性的相关理论,并对上市公司信息披露监管具有重要的参考价值。     

上市公司负面声誉与分析师关注:"趋之若鹜"抑或"避之若浼"

本文选取2008-2018年A股上市公司为样本,以公司违规处罚作为负面声誉的代理变量,考察分析师在选择跟踪对象时会否将公司负面声誉纳入考量.研究发现,公司违规处罚导致分析师关注度显著降低.机制检验表明,违规处罚通过降低投资者信息需求和分析师供给意愿两条路径影响分析师关注.拓展性分析发现,公司所受处罚越严重、被罚款金额越多,分析师关注度越低;处罚事件对分析师关注的负面冲击具有长期效应;对于非国有企业和处于高社会信任水平地区的公司,违规处罚对分析师关注的负向影响更显著.本文为深入理解我国证券市场中的声誉机制提供了经验证据,亦为监管机构加大违规惩处力度、借助分析师等市场"看门人"的力量提增监管威慑力提供了政策参考.     

上市公司负面声誉与分析师关注:"趋之若鹜"抑或"避之若浼"

本文选取2008-2018年A股上市公司为样本,以公司违规处罚作为负面声誉的代理变量,考察分析师在选择跟踪对象时会否将公司负面声誉纳入考量.研究发现,公司违规处罚导致分析师关注度显著降低.机制检验表明,违规处罚通过降低投资者信息需求和分析师供给意愿两条路径影响分析师关注.拓展性分析发现,公司所受处罚越严重、被罚款金额越多,分析师关注度越低;处罚事件对分析师关注的负面冲击具有长期效应;对于非国有企业和处于高社会信任水平地区的公司,违规处罚对分析师关注的负向影响更显著.本文为深入理解我国证券市场中的声誉机制提供了经验证据,亦为监管机构加大违规惩处力度、借助分析师等市场"看门人"的力量提增监管威慑力提供了政策参考.     

政府分权与企业舞弊:国有上市公司的经验证据

文章以国有企业的舞弊活动为研究视角,考察了政府分权的经济后果。理论上,政府分权会减轻企业的政治成本,降低企业的舞弊概率;但同时政府分权也会加剧代理成本(管理层自利行为的成本),提高企业的舞弊概率。以金字塔层级作为政府对国有企业分权程度的替代变量,实证结果显示,政府分权显著降低了国有企业的舞弊概率。对舞弊类型细分之后发现,政府分权主要降低了企业信息披露与资本市场交易方面的舞弊。此外,政府分权对企业舞弊的抑制作用主要存在于政府干预动机较强的地区。本文的结论从企业舞弊的视角支持了政府对国有企业的分权化改革。     

证监会处罚、分析师跟踪与公司银行债务融资——来自信息披露违规的经验证据

证监会处罚公告释放的"坏消息"具有风险预警的作用,可能导致违规公司银行债务融资下降。分析师跟踪可能具有信息效应和声誉效应,影响证监会处罚公告与公司银行债务融资之间的关系。在中国资本市场强化监管的背景下,本文考察了证监会处罚对于违规公司非公开市场融资的经济后果。我们的研究发现,证监会处罚公告后,违规公司的银行贷款签约概率、银行贷款签约率和新增银行贷款规模均下降;并且,处罚等级越高,下降越显著。银行预期违规公司的信息成本与违约风险上升,而非公司真实的财务状况恶化是公司银行债务融资下降的主要原因。此外,分析师跟踪的信息效应而非声誉效应,缓解了证监会处罚公告与公司银行债务融资之间的负向关系。本文拓展了资本市场处罚和分析师跟踪对于公司非公开市场融资的经济后果研究,也为新兴市场国家的资本市场监管提供了经验证据。     

上市公司舞弊性财务报告及其防范与监管——基于中国证券监督委员会处罚公告的分析

舞弊性财务报告是全世界经济社会和会计职业界关注的重大问题。我国目前也面临其挑战。本文以中国证券监督委员会2002—2006年处罚公告中涉及的上市公司舞弊性财务报告为依据,对我国上市公司舞弊性财务报告的主要类型、手段等进行了统计分析。分析发现,舞弊公司表外舞弊严重,所占比重大;同时存在多种舞弊类型,典型的是虚假利润表和虚假披露;虚构销售业务、虚增资产、隐瞒对外担保分别成为虚假利润表、虚假资产负债表和虚假披露的最主要舞弊手段;舞弊公司同时采用多种舞弊方法,且舞弊行为持续年限在两年以上,最长的达9年。本文最后提出了相应的防范与监管建议。     

Emission Allowance as a Derivative on Commodity-Spread

We provide a valuation formula for emission allowance. Assuming that the value of emission allowance on the last day of a trading phase is equal to a spread of commodity prices (e.g. electricity and natural gas) when the spread is positive and less than the penalty, we show that the emission allowance price is equal to the value of a portfolio of European call options on the spread of the commodities. Using the formula, we obtain a hedging strategy for emission allowance trading. We also empirically analyze option value embedded in emission allowance, and find by numerical analysis that the option value is relatively large.     

Short sales constraint and SEO pricing

We examine the influence of SEC's Rule 105 on informed trading and the information content of stock prices around an SEO's offer day. We show that constraints on short sales inhibit informed trading and hamper incorporation of information into stock prices for offers whose traders have private adverse information and without options listing. The constraints contribute to increased price uncertainty and higher market sensitivity to seller-initiated trading. After controlling for other causes of SEO discounts, we find that the decrease in information content of stock prices just before an offer day has a significant impact on the SEO's value discount.     

Real Estate Valuation and Cross-Boundary Air Pollution Externalities: Evidence from Chinese Cities

Within an open system of cities, compensating differentials theory predicts that local real estate prices will be higher in cities with higher quality non-market local public goods. In this case, more polluted cities will feature lower home prices. A city’s air pollution levels depend on economic activity within the city and on cross-border pollution externalities. In this paper, we demonstrate that air pollution in Chinese cities is degraded by cross-boundary externalities. We use this exogenous source of variation in a city’s air pollution to present new robust estimates of the real estate impact of local air pollution. We find that reductions in cross-boundary pollution flows have significant effects on local home prices. On average, a 10 % decrease in imported neighbor pollution is associated with a 0.76 % increase in local home prices. We also find that the marginal valuation of clean air is larger in richer Chinese cities, and hukou barrier of labor migration has been further phased out.     

END‐OF‐DAY PRICING IN THE U.S. TREASURY MARKET: A COMPARISON OF GovPX AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK

We compare end‐of‐day indicative U.S. Treasury prices from GovPX and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). We find that the two sources rarely quote identical prices, and differences are not simply due to noise or rounding. The average bid price differential is 2 cents for notes and bonds, but it is only ¹/₁₀ of 1 cent for bills. Bid‐ask spreads in both sources appear to be largely artificial and contain limited information. Finally, we find that the end‐of‐day indicative FRBNY bid prices are closer to true intraday GovPX market quotes than end‐of‐day indicative quotes provided by GovPX itself.     

Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance, and Risk Premia: An Empirical Perspective

In a model with housing collateral, the ratio of housing wealth to human wealth shifts the conditional distribution of asset prices and consumption growth. A decrease in house prices reduces the collateral value of housing, increases household exposure to idiosyncratic risk, and increases the conditional market price of risk. Using aggregate data for the United States, we find that a decrease in the ratio of housing wealth to human wealth predicts higher returns on stocks. Conditional on this ratio, the covariance of returns with aggregate risk factors explains 80% of the cross‐sectional variation in annual size and book‐to‐market portfolio returns.     

Warrant price responses to credit spread changes: Fact or fiction?

We use a new approach to analyze the relationship between warrant prices and issuers’ credit spreads. This approach allows us to gain insights into whether issuers use their credit risk systematically to increase their profits. In a post‐Lehman sample, we find strong support for a systematic use since issuers decrease prices less after cred it spread increases than they increase prices after credit spread decreases. Credit spread decreases are accompanied by price increases on several successive days. This sluggish adjustment in prices can be explained by the fact that retail investors’ purchase decisions depend on product prices.     

Futures prices and inflation information

This study examines the timing and speed with which inflation futures prices absorb inflation information. Results of the study show that inflation futures prices already reflect the expected inflation. Moreover, 71% of unexpected inflation has been reflected in futures prices about 25 business days prior to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement, which usually coincides with the end of the CPI measurement period. Reaction to the remaining 29% occurs on and shortly after the CPI announcement date, especially on day 0 and day 2. The inflation risk premium that investors are willing to pay to avoid uncertain inflation is estimated to be 1.41% per annum.     

Regulations,earnings management,and post-IPO performance: The Chinese evidence

In this study, we examine whether government regulatory initiatives in China involving IPO by SOEs may have contributed to opportunistic behaviors by the issuer. We focus on two sets of IPO regulations issued between January 1, 1996 and February 11, 1999: pricing regulations, which stipulate that IPO prices be a function of accounting performance, and penalty regulations, which penalize IPO firms for overly optimistic forecasts. We find that IPO firms that report better pricing-period accounting performance have larger declines in post-IPO profitability, lower first-day stock returns and worse long-run post-IPO stock performance. Furthermore, IPO firms that make overoptimistic forecasts also have lower first-day returns and worse post-IPO stock performance. Using non-core earnings as the proxy for earnings management, we document some evidence that IPO firms that report higher pricing-period accounting performance have engaged in more income-increasing earnings management. Hence, pricing regulations may have induced IPO firms to inflate pricing-period earnings and affect the post-IPO performance negatively. On the other hand, penalty regulations have deterred IPO firms from making overoptimistic earnings forecast and therefore have a positive impact on the behavior of IPO firms.     

The impact of nominal stock price on ex-dividend price responses

In this paper, we examine whether nominal stock price can help to explain the ex-dividend day anomaly where stock prices drop by less than the dividend amount on the ex-dividend date. We find that stocks with lower nominal prices have ex-dividend day price drops that are more consistent with theoretical predictions based on an efficient market. After controlling for factors that have been previously documented to influence ex-dividend day stock price behavior, price-drop-to-dividend ratios are closer to one for lower priced stocks. To further explore this phenomenon, we examine the change in the price-drop-to-dividend ratio around stock splits. Firms that split their shares have a larger price-drop-to-dividend ratio after the split, and companies that reverse split their shares have a smaller price-drop-to-dividend ratio after the split. Our evidence indicates that ex-dividend day stock price behavior is influenced by the nominal price of a share and that this relation could also influence the decision to split a firm’s shares.     

The Effect of Regulation on Insurance Pricing: The Case of Germany

This article analyzes the impact of policy form regulation on the unit price of insurance and determinants of premium changes using the 1994 deregulation of the German property–liability market as a natural experiment. Our result show that policy form regulation did not increase prices above competitive levels. Factors influencing premium changes are significantly different for the two time periods, pre‐ and post‐deregulation, indicating that regulation affects insurance pricing. Focusing on highly competitive lines after deregulation, we find a significant price decrease, and this decrease is offset by higher prices in the remaining other lines.