江西省“十一五”期间市域经济增长贡献度与贡献差异的实证研究

近年来,江西11市经济总量和人均收入都得到较快增长,政府希望借此机遇大力发展各市经济,并实现经济增长方式的转变。本文使用"十一五"期间11市的GDP、人均GDP、财政收入、人均财政收入、经济增长率、财政收入增长率以及各市GDP所占省内份额等指标来研究市域经济贡献度,通过实证分析将11市分为Ⅰ类、Ⅱ类和Ⅲ类区域。最后,规范地分析了各市域贡献度差异的原因并提出优化11市经济的建议。     

政府内源融资:增税的经济约束

政府通过增加税收的内源融资受到经济增长的约束表现为总量和结构两方面。实证结果表明 ,中国近 5年税收的快速增长中政府增税融资比重在 2 5 %——— 5 4 %之间。增税使宏观税负增加不超过2 2 .9% ,宏观税负与政府支出占GDP比重相差不超过 3个百分点为宜 ;增税应以消费支出税类为主 ,资本收入税类、劳动所得税类的增税空间很小。     

湖北省经济增长与城乡居民收入关系研究——基于VEC模型的实证

文章基于向量误差修正模型研究了湖北省经济增长与城乡居民收入的关系。通过分析湖北省1978~2011年的经济数据,文章构建了一个以人均GDP、城镇居民人均可支配收入和农村居民人均纯收入为内生变量的VEC模型,并分析了三个经济变量的冲击效应。文章的研究认为,湖北省城乡居民收入份额持续下降,离最优收入份额还存在较大差距;经济增长与收入之间存在着长期的稳定关系,经济系统偏离长期均衡值时,系统存在着自我调整机制,但调整力度较弱;经济增长对城乡居民收入有显著的冲击效应,城乡居民收入之间也存在着冲击效应。     

国际金融机构专递

亚行新书诠释亚洲经济发展50年的成功经验亚行发行的新书《亚洲繁荣之路:50年政策、市场和科技发展的回顾》,详实地分析了在过去50年亚洲经济成功的经验,同时也告诫切勿骄傲自满。亚洲发展中经济体在全球国内生产总值(GDP)中所占份额从1960年的4%上升到了2018年的24%。如果包括澳大利亚、日本和新西兰在内,这一份额则从13%增加到34%。同一时期,亚洲发展中经济体的人均GDP从330美元增加到了4,903美元,增长了14倍(按2010年定值美元计算)。     

包头与呼和浩特地区GDP、人均可支配收入、人口与银行存款关系研究

本文从宏观角度实证研究包头和呼和浩特地区银行存款与GDP、人口和人均可支配收入之间的关系,结果表明三个因素对银行存款都有重要的影响,随着GDP和居民人均可支配收入的增加,银行存款会不断增长;人口的变动也会增加银行存款。因此,发展经济,增加居民可支配收入,保持人口合理增长和变动,才能稳定持续增加银行存款。     

环境库茨涅兹曲线在中国的现实考证

改革开放以来中国取得了经济上的迅速发展,但同时也伴随着一定的环境污染。本文利用1995~2012年中国31个省市地区的面板数据,基于环境库茨涅兹曲线假说,以各省市人均工业废水排放量、人均工业排放量、人均工业烟粉尘排放量与人均GDP数据进行建模,研究我国环境污染与经济增长之间的关系。结果表明:我国从整体来看,人均工业排放量与人均GDP之间满足"N"形曲线特征。人均工业烟粉尘排放量与人均GDP之间尚未呈现出明显的"N"形曲线关系。从时间发展阶段来看,2005年之后,人均工业废水排放与人均GDP之间呈现出较为明显的倒"N"形曲线关系;从区域来看,部分经济发达地区的人均工业废水排放量与人均GDP之间满足"N"形曲线关系特征。     

中国行业收入差距的度量及其对经济增长的效应分析

本文利用1985-2007年各行业人员平均收入和各年人均GDP数据,根据我国行业收入差距的现状计算并度量了行业收入差距的基尼系数,并由计算的基尼系数和我国实际人均GDP的变动特征建立了我国行业收入差距与经济增长的协整模型,实证研究结果表明,我国行业收入差距与经济增长存在长期稳定关系,且行业收入差距对经济增长的长期效应取决于行业收入差距水平和经济发展阶段。我国改革开放初期的行业收入差距对经济增长具有促进作用,而现阶段行业收入差距的扩大对经济的长期增长产生阻滞作用。研究进一步估计和分析误差修正模型,表明了我国行业收入差距与经济增长的长期稳定关系对短期经济增长没有显著影响,并提出缩小行业收入差距的相应政策建议。     

数字

12．3％ 根据国家统计局的数据,2013年我国国内生产总值（GDP）达到568845亿元,占全球GDP的比重达到12．3％。人均GDP由1952年的119元增加到2013年的41908元（约合6767美元）。统计显示,1953年至2013年,我国GDP按可比价计算增长了122倍,年均增长8．2％,其中改革开放以来GDP年均增长9.8％。     

利率变动对我国人身保险保费收入的影响——基于非线性STR模型的实证分析

本文基于STR模型，对1982—2010年我国存款利率变动与人身保险保费收入之间的关系进行了分析。结果表明，当存款利率水平处于较低水平时（6％以下），STR模型中的非线性特征不明显。人均GDP增长为人身保险保费收入增长提供了动力，存款余额增加对人身保险保费收入增加有抑制作用。当存款利率水平处于较高水平时（超过6％），STR模型的非线性特征趋向显著，人均GDP增加对人身保险保费收入增长的减弱，存款余额对人身保险保费收入产生的收入效应大于替代效应的同时，取代人均GDP成为了人身保险保费收入增长的主要动力。     

汽车金融发展的社会信用环境

根据发达国家的经验,当人均国内生产总值(GDP)达到1000美元时,轿车开始进入家庭;当人均国内生产总值(GDP)达3000-10000美元时,进入汽车消费快速发展时期。2005年,中国人均GDP达到1703美元。根据国家统计局公布的统计数据,2005年我国汽车累计产销570.77万辆和575.82辆,同比分别增长12.56%和13.54%,其中,乘用车产销393.07万辆和397.11万辆,同比分别增长19.73%和21.40%;商用车产销177.70万辆和178.71万辆,同比分别下降0.60%和0.75%。可见,家庭轿车已经成为我国城镇居民的消费热点。发达国家70%的汽车销售都有融资性安排,但相比之下我国汽车…     

Personal income tax mimicry: evidence from international panel data

This paper investigates personal income tax (PIT) mimicry at the international level. It is the first to empirically investigate the extent to which PIT mimicry varies along the tax schedule and the first to include nations which are not part of the OECD. We use data on international personal income tax schedules from the world tax indicators to estimate marginal and average tax rates at various multiples of per capita gross domestic product (GDP). These tax rates are then used to estimate the extent to which countries respond to their neighbors’ PIT policy. We find evidence of PIT mimicry using a balanced panel of 53 countries over 24 years. This finding is strongest for tax rates at lower multiples of per capita GDP and survives several robustness checks.     

China's Abolition of the Agricultural Tax,Local Governments’ Responses and Economic Growth

When evaluating agricultural policy changes, much of the attention in the literature has been limited to agricultural productivity growth. This study demonstrates that, under a regionally decentralised authority system, the effect of China's abolition of the agricultural tax (AAT) in 2004–05 extended beyond the realm of agriculture. We find that, following the AAT reform, Chinese counties with higher reliance on agricultural taxation for budgetary revenue prior to the AAT reform experienced higher agricultural economic growth, as expected, but lower non‐agricultural economic growth in the short run. This growth‐inhibiting effect of the AAT reform on non‐agricultural production in the short run can be explained, to some extent, by the increased non‐agricultural taxation due to the insufficient funds that Chinese county governments received from the upper‐level governments following the AAT reform; the magnitude of this tax increase was associated with the degree to which each county relied on agricultural taxation for budgetary revenue prior to the reform. In addition, our results show that the AAT reform resulted in a high level of regional inequality in terms of non‐agricultural GDP per capita. In summary, our study shows that although the AAT reform succeeded in promoting agricultural production, such accomplishments were achieved at the cost of lower non‐agricultural output growth and higher regional inequality of non‐agricultural GDP per capita at the county level.     

Understanding multidimensional tax systems

Income tax systems are multidimensional, and ignoring their non-rate aspects can introduce bias into cross-country empirical estimation of the impact of taxation on economic outcomes. We analyze 10 non-rate tax system aspects, codified based on recent reports published by the Organisation for Co-operation and Development. We find that a single factor (which we call Dispersed Responsibility), related to the role of taxpayers and third parties in tax collection, can reasonably summarize the cross-country covariation, and offer it as a parsimonious measure of non-rate tax system dimensions for future empirical analysis. We also ascertain that a standard measure of trust in government is positively associated with greater administrator coverage and administrative assessment, as well as more serious sanctions for non-compliance. Ethnic heterogeneity, individualism, and a history of external conflict also can explain certain aspects of tax systems. We find that countries with greater trust in government score lower on Dispersed Responsibility. Finally, we find that adding a measure of the number of tax authority employees can eliminate the otherwise significant positive estimated coefficient of GDP per capita on the tax level, and attracts a significant positive correlation itself, suggesting that the extent of tax administration and enforcement is part of the story that explains the enduring statistical regularity between tax levels and per capita income.     

外商直接投资对苏州经济发展影响的实证分析

本文分析了1993—2007年外商直接投资（FDI）和苏州经济发展的关系。分别考察了外商直接投资与国内生产总值（GDP）、人均收入的相互作用对苏州经济发展的影响。实证结果表明,FDI对苏州经济发展具有较强的促进作用。在实证研究的基础上,本文最后分析了FDI对苏州经济发展的净效应并得出了相关结论和启示。     

运用税收手段 增强居民消费能力

改革开放以来,我国经济迅速发展,国内生产总值和居民收入不断增加,但由于收入分配不公等因素的影响,我国劳动者报酬、居民收入占GDP的比重持续下降,税收收入占GDP的比重不断上升,居民不同群体间的收入差距悬殊,导致居民消费能力不强,消费率降低。本文针对这一现实,着重研究了如何运用税收手段,调节分配,增加居民收入,扩大国内需求,促进经济发展。     

经济增长、税收收入与宏观税负——基于中国宏观经济数据的实证研究

本研究以经济增长、税收收入与宏观税负三者间的关系为研究对象,利用中国2006年第1季度至2011年第3季度的税收收入、GDP和所计算得出的小口径宏观税负的数据,以供给学派经济学家亚瑟.拉弗（Arthur Laffer）提出的著名的＂拉弗曲线＂（Laffer-curve）为指导,建立计量经济模型,分别测算实现经济增长最大化的宏观税负和实现政府税收收入最大化的宏观税负,并分析了中国税收收入与经济增长的关系,为近年来中国积极推进财税体制改革和近期出台的结构性减税政策提供支持。     

台湾地区中小企业融资研究

我国台湾地区在经济建设上取得了显著的成效,人均GDP由1952年的169美元上升到2011年的21592美元,这很大程度上得益于台湾中小企业做出的贡献和作用。经过60余年的发展,台湾地区中小企业在经济贡献率、税收创造、新增岗位创造等方面均取得了巨大的成效。本文通过对台湾中小企业发展现状、政府法律制度建设以及金融支持等方面的分析．研究台湾地区中小企业得以快速繁荣发展的因素。     

How Does Infrastructure Construction Affect Economic Development along the “Belt and Road”: By Promoting Growth or Improving Distribution?

ABSTRACT

The “Belt and Road Initiative” has involved deepening infrastructure construction along the “Belt and Road”. Using data from countries who have joined the “Belt and Road”, this study examines how infrastructure construction has affected economic development along the route. Findings show that infrastructure construction can promote economic growth and per capita output growth while improving income distribution of residents along the “Belt and Road”. Results also indicate that the effect of infrastructure construction on economic development is heterogeneous; such construction can substantially increase economic growth in developing countries but has no significant effect on economic growth in developed and emerging developing countries. Infrastructure construction can greatly improve residents’ income distribution in developed and developing countries but has no significant effect on residents in emerging developing countries. Collectively, these findings identify foreign direct investment and urbanization as important channels through which infrastructure construction can influence economic development.     

Global-scale assessment of potential future risks of food insecurity

This paper presents an approach of combining biophysical, social, and economic factors for spatially explicit assessment of potential future risks of food insecurity at a global scale over the period of 2000–2020 under a certain scenario. In doing that, two indicators, namely per capita food availability and per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), were selected to cover the four dimensions of food security, with the former representing the status of food availability and stability, and the latter reflecting the situation of food accessibility and affordability. These two indicators were then linked to an integrated modeling framework. Under this framework, a GIS-based EPIC model was adopted to estimate the potential yields of different crop types under a given biophysical and agricultural management environment, a crop choice decision model was used to model the changes in crop areas through tracking the crop choice decisions, and the IFPSIM model was utilized to evaluate the crop price in the international market. Based on these two indicators, the potential risks of food insecurity were assessed with a spatial resolution of six arc-minutes. The results show that both changes in per capita food availability and changes in per capita GDP during 2000–2020 vary across regions worldwide. Some regions such as China, most eastern European countries, and most southern American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation. On the contrary, certain regions such as southern Asia and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future. In these regions, both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020. Although most developed countries will also experience both a decrease in per capita food availability and a decrease in per capita GDP, these countries are likely to be food-secure due to their higher income and purchasing power.     

Optimal International Taxation and Growth Rate Convergence: Tax Competition vs. Coordination

Optimal international taxation and its implications for convergence in long run income growth rates are analyzed in the context of an endogenously growing world economy with perfect capital mobility. Under tax competition (i) the residence principle will maximize national welfare; (ii) the optimal long run tax rate on capital incomes from various sources will be zero in all countries; and (iii) long term per capita income growth rates will be equalized across countries. Under tax coordination, (i) becomes irrelevant while (ii) and (iii) will continue to hold. In other words, optimal tax policies are growth-equalizing with and without international policy coordination. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.