探析天气风险以及天气衍生品在我国的发展

变幻莫测的灾害性天气给世界各国经济、社会带来了严重的损失,作为一种有效的天气风险管理工具——天气衍生产品逐渐得到越来越多的关注。文章从天气风险的基本概念开始,从天气衍生产品产生的背景出发,简单介绍天气衍生产品市场的现状及发展,并对我国天气衍生产品的发展进行展望分析。     

天气衍生产品对我国金融市场创新及农业风险管理的启示

21世纪是金融全球化和自由化的时代,面对变幻莫测的天气及由此带来的社会损失,天气衍生产品作为一种有效的避险工具正受到越来越多人的关注。文章从世界天气衍生产品发展情况出发,介绍了欧美发达国家天气衍生产品发展现状及我国在应对天气风险的现有举措,结合中国现有国情,就未来我国发展该种金融工具的有利条件和不利因素进行了可行分析,充分论证了未来我国天气衍生产品发展的迫切性和直接现实性。最后为未来我国天气衍生产品的发展提出切实有效的举措与发展建议。     

农业自然风险的金融管理：天气衍生品的兴起

天气衍生品是农业保险创新的产物，它将金融工具的理念用于自然灾害的风险管理，为农业生产者的风险转移提供了新途径。天气衍生品的推出可以增强保险公司和再保险公司分散风险的能力，有助于提高农业自然风险的管理水平。本文介绍了全球天气衍生品发展的产品与市场状况，并提出了相关的政策建议。     

基于ARMA模型的气温衍生品定价研究：以武汉市为例

随着气候异常变化频率的增加以及极端天气事件的频繁发生,天气风险对农业的影响尤其严重,天气风险管理成为了关注的热点.天气衍生品作为国外进行天气风险管理和转移的金融创新工具,为应对天气风险提供了重要的途径,定价问题则是天气衍生品研究中的核心问题.本文使用武汉市1990.1.1-2009.12.31的每日气温数据,采用了基于ARMA的时间序列模型分析了武汉市气温动态变化的过程,对模型进行了估计、检验了模型的预测准确度,结果表明：ARMA模型具有较好的拟合优度,能以此为基础对气温期权等天气衍生产品进行合理定价.基于以上分析,本文提出应提供有利的技术环境、政策环境和制度环境以推进农业天气衍生品开发与市场发展的政策建议.     

气候变化与天气衍生产品创新

由于气候变化会加大天气的波动性,企业需要运用天气衍生产品来对冲天气影响的风险以稳定利润。天气衍生产品是一类特殊的金融衍生产品,具有自身特定的构成要素、标的变量、支付函数和定价方法。随着气候变化的影响逐步加大,天气衍生产品具有广阔的发展空间。     

天气衍生品的运作机制与精算定价

天气衍生品是为了规避天气风险给天气敏感行业带来收入的不稳定性而兴起的创新型风险管理工具,其实质是通过衍生合约对天气风险进行分割、重组和交易的证券化产品。不同于传统金融衍生品,天气衍生品的价值取决于温度、湿度或降雨量等天气指数。本文在分析天气衍生品市场发展的基础上,重点探讨了最常见的天气期货和天气期权的运作机制及其精算定价。     

抵押债权工具:具有重要实践意文的信用衍生产品

信用衍生产品是当前国际金融市场新兴的信用风险管理工具,信用衍生产品以其改变传统风险管理理念、分散资产风险的优点为国际银行业所认同.本文通过对当今国际金融市场发展最为迅猛的信用衍生产品一抵押债权工具的描述和分析,为我国信用衍生产品发展提出初步思路.     

信用衍生产品风险探析

信用衍生产品市场的发展引发了信用风险管理信用风险定价资产组合管理的变革并将对金融市场的结构和效率产生积极而深远的影响.然而,信用衍生产品市场在促进风险转嫁和分散的同时也蕴含着一定的风险.本文对信用衍生产品的风险进行了分析.     

信用衍生产品与金融安全和金融效率

信用衍生产品是重要的信用风险转移工具.本文通过分析信用衍生产品对金融安全和金融效率的影响,研究信用衍生产品发展规律,认为信用衍生产品转移的信用风险在市场容纳能力限度内,市场能够分散吸收,提高金融效率;反之,超出市场限度,就会放大风险,引发金融危机.     

天气指数保险及创新产品的比较研究

本文从天气指数保险及衍生品创新的本质和内涵出发,通过三组比较来进行分析。首先是进行天气指数保险和传统保险的比较,进而了解天气指数保险在理赔流程上的变化以及从风险导因出发的风险管控形式;其次是天气指数保险和天气指数衍生品之间的比较,了解这两种天气指数保险创新形式的内在联系与实质区别,提出天气指数衍生品就是天气指数保险在资本市场的应用延伸;最后通过天气指数衍生品和传统金融衍生品的比较,得出两者并非替代关系而是互补关系,提出需要推出天气指数衍生产品进行有效的风险管理。     

异常天气保险应纳入上海世博会应急机制

本文对上海世博会期间的异常天气保险进行了设计,并提出了政府给予一定补贴建立异常天气保险制度、引入专业保险中介、完善异常天气保险相关法律法规、提高保险和气象专业服务水平等政策建议。     

The warning of haze: weather and corporate investment

This paper investigates whether air quality affects corporate investment. Using a sample of Chinese A‐share listed firms from 2007 to 2013, this paper finds that poor air quality is negatively associated with corporate investment and reduction of corporate investment due to air pollution intensifies with manager risk aversion. In addition, this paper provides evidence against the alternative explanation that corporate investment decreases due to government air‐quality regulations. Furthermore, this paper also suggests that poor air quality is negatively associated with investment efficiency. These findings complement existing literature on how weather conditions affect corporate financial decisions.     

Pricing temperature derivatives with a filtered historical simulation approach

In this paper, we propose pricing temperature derivatives using a filtered historical simulation (FHS) approach that amalgamates model-based treatment of volatility and empirical innovation density. The FHS approach implicitly captures the risk premium with the entire risk-neutral model (except the innovation distribution), thereby providing significantly more flexibility than existing methods that use only one designated parameter to capture the risk premium. Additionally, instead of relying on the fitted innovation distribution, the FHS approach uses empirical innovations to capture excess skewness, excess kurtosis, and other non-standard features in the temperature data, all of which are important for the correct pricing of temperature derivatives. We apply the FHS approach to pricing derivatives written on the temperature of Chicago, and demonstrate that this approach yields better in-sample and out-of-sample pricing performance than the constant market price of risk method and the consumption-based method.     

日照时间天气指数保险的费率厘定——以长沙县早稻作物为例

天气指数保险是传统农业保险、区域产量保险的创新。选择天气指数保险探讨其费率厘定,有助于克服道德风险和逆选择,确保农业保险快速、健康地发展。粮食作物日照时间天气指数保险的费率厘定,首先要测算日照过短（或日照过长）的严重程度,计算日照过短（或日照过长）测度指标;再分析气候因素导致粮食作物减产的程度,计算气候减产率;然后利用计量经济分析方法,确立气候减产率与日照过短（或日照过长）测度指标之间的定量关系;最后根据该定量关系以及日照过短（或日照过长）测度指标的期望值,求得日照时间天气指数保险的费率。     

Influence of weather on New Zealand financial securities

The present study examines the influence of four independent facets of the local weather in the two major cities of New Zealand on the interest rates of bank bills and government bonds and the returns of stock indices. Factor analysis of the local weather variables generates four independent facets measuring temperature, sunshine, wind in Auckland and wind in Wellington. The analysis is based on a repeated measures design. Two results, which are consistent within a given financial security, are observed. The prices of bank bills are positively influenced by the level of the sunshine factor. The prices of stock indices are negatively influenced by the level of the Wellington wind factor. The influence of the level of sunshine on the returns of stock indices is susceptible to two interpretations.     

Temperature models for pricing weather derivatives

We present four models for predicting temperatures that can be used for pricing weather derivatives. Three of the models have been suggested in previous literature, and we propose another model that uses splines to remove trend and seasonality effects from temperature time series in a flexible way. Using historical temperature data from 35 weather stations across the United States, we test the performance of the models by evaluating virtual heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) contracts. We find that all models perform better when predicting HDD indices than predicting CDD indices. However, all models based on a daily simulation approach significantly underestimate the variance of the errors.     

A two-factor model for the electricity forward market

This paper provides a two-factor model for electricity futures that captures the main features of the market and fits the term structure of volatility. The approach extends the one-factor model of Clewlow and Strickland to a two-factor model and modifies it to make it applicable to the electricity market. We will particularly deal with the existence of delivery periods in the underlying futures. Additionally, the model is calibrated to options on electricity futures and its performance for practical application is discussed.     

气候变化对经济金融系统性冲击的物理风险研究

中国作为全球最大的发展中国家,其综合实力伴随着经济、科技的快速发展而不断增强。但我国的极端气候事件趋多趋强,气候风险水平呈上升趋势,影响我国经济社会的发展。金融作为经济运行的核心,在宏观经济中有着举足轻重的作用。为了研究气候变化与经济金融稳定之间的关系,本文对极端气候事件损失体系和区域经济金融稳定性综合体系进行指数合成并构建面板模型探讨气候变化中气温和降水量因素的变动和极端气候事件对区域金融稳定的影响,得出气候变化的物理风险通过极端气候事件对经济发展和金融稳定有负面影响,并根据实证结果提出完善绿色金融市场和优化信息披露制度的政策建议。