非合作博弈环境下金融宏观调控选择--以湖北省经济金融形势为例

博弈本是市场经济活动中的正常现象．每个市场参与主体都希望通过自身理性的行为．实现功能或利益的最优化或最大化。但根据“纳什均衡”理论．往往自身的理性选择对于整体而言却形成了一种非合作的博弈行为。在我国现在正处于经济转轨过程中．各微观市场主体进行充分博弈的机制尚不完善,在利益本位驱动下,非合作博弈现象普遍存在,从而在一定程度上抵消了政策实施的效果,所以非合作博弈也是经济的一种常态,它的存在有助于我们发现经济运行中存在的问题。探根溯源,找出规律。因势利导,从而做出最优制度安排。本轮金融宏观调控正是面临这种挑战．理性的选择应该是进一步改善金融生态环境,完善金融宏观调控方式,     

由“囚徒困境”想到的

经济学搏弈论中有个著名的“囚徒困境”原理，讲的是在竞争状态中，两个人互不信任、互不合作，结果两个人只能作出多坐几年牢的选择。这种非合作搏弈在经济学上的表现就是加大了交易成本，降低了效率。但搏弈论还有种合作搏弈，而且经济学认为，“囚徒困境”属于一次性搏弈，在一次性搏弈中，自私者会把互相欺骗作为最佳选择。在重复搏弈中，当事人会谋求长期利益最大化，特别是在某种制度的约束下，人们会采取合作搏弈的办法，更加倾向于诚实和合作。     

消解“囚徒困境”探寻新的监督均衡——对人民银行核算业务事后监督的博弈分析

为符合帕累托改善的原则，通过增加一个奖惩矩阵，可以摆脱“囚徒困境”，实现个体理性与集体理性的协调和一致。核算部门的违规与监督部门监督不力并存的状况，是人民银行核算业务事后监督博弈中的“囚徒困境”。因此．建立有效的激励约束机制是实现新的监督均衡并充分发挥监督效力的有效途径。     

个人住房贷款市场的竞争策略

个人住房贷款市场是寡头垄断市场，市场竞争往往陷入囚徒困境，形成“双输”格局。必须进行金融产品的深加工，进行无风险的金融创新，才能彻底摆脱囚徒困境。     

会计诚信缺失的心理学思考

长期以来,人们把会计诚信的缺失归罪于会计人员职业道德的沦丧。杨雄胜教授在《会计诚信问题的理性思考》一文中说:“对普遍存在的中国会计信息失真现象,不能简单地认定为是会计人士道德沦丧,事实上,我们的会计真的一点也不想做假帐呀!中国会计在业务中往往陷入了博弈论所描述的‘囚徒困境‘之中……会计‘囚徒困境导致了会计诚信原则的缺失。”简单地把会计信息失真的原因,归结于会计人职业道德的沦丧有过于简单化之嫌。从心理学的角度来看,中国会计人陷入“囚徒困境”只是会计诚信缺失的表象,会计“囚徒困境”的产生有着深刻的个人与社会心理的原因。一、会计诚信缺失的心理学分析(一)会计囚徒困境是会计人诚信缺失的内在心理因素美国著名道德心理学家和道德教育学家柯尔伯格采用创设了一个内容涉及法律、权威或正规的责任等方面的道德两难情境的方法,要求被试者作出选择。这个两难故事为:在欧洲,一位妇女因患有一种罕见的癌症已濒临死亡。医生认为只有一种药可以救她命,即该镇一位药剂师最近发明的一种镭。药剂师以10倍于成本的价值2000元出售该药。病妇的丈夫海因茨向每一位熟人借钱,但总共才凑到了药价一半左右的钱。他恳求药剂师把药便宜卖给他或以后将药钱补上,但药剂师说...     

会计诚信缺失的心理学思考

长期以来,人们把会计诚信的缺失归罪于会计人员职业道德的沦丧. 杨雄胜教授在《会计诚信问题的理性思考》一文中说:"对普遍存在的中国会计信息失真现象,不能简单地认定为是会计人士道德沦丧,事实上,我们的会计真的一点也不想做假帐呀!中国会计在业务中往往陷入了博弈论所描述的囚徒困境之中……会计囚徒困境导致了会计诚信原则的缺失."     

从个体理性到交往理性：东海铸锻担保圈风险的形成和化解

交往主体作为“经济人”,在市场的博弈过程中,追逐自身利益最大化是个体理性的选择,但在日常经济活动中,个体理性往往导致集体非理性结局。本文运用哈贝马斯的“交往理性”理论剖析了山东省聊城市东海铸锻破产案,在政府主导或外部力量适度干预下,通过谈判磋商,最终促进多家银行与企业达到交往理性的均衡状态,并据此提出了相关风险处置的顶层设计。     

供应链节点企业间信任的“囚徒困境”

信任问题是供应链战略联盟成败的关键.本文通过对供应链节点企业间博弈过程中信任问题的研究,建立“囚徒困境”模型,阐述其陷入“囚徒困境”的过程并发现其中原因,提出解决信任的“囚徒困境”的具体方法.     

“互联网+金融”与商业银行竞争融合关系的博弈分析

论文构建了"互联网+金融"与商业银行竞争与合作关系的双寡头博弈模型,剖析当前"互联网+"跨界经营模式对商业银行的冲击,发现在一次博弈的情况下博弈双方可能会陷入帕累托次优的"囚徒困境",但是长期重复博弈可以促使双方由竞争走向融合,走出"囚徒困境"实现福利水平最大化。     

集体行动的困境及化解途径探析

20世纪60年代前的传统利益集团理论认为,由具有共同利益的个体组成的集团总是具有增进集团共同利益的倾向.因此,追求个人利益最大化的个体理性最终会导致集团成员采取一致的集体行动,实现个体理性和集体理性的完美结合.然而,现实中许多符合集团利益的集体行动并未发生,例如,汽车驾驶者对于在道路上畅通行驶具有共同利益,但是驾驶者并没有采取集体行动抵制交通拥堵.据此,奥尔森认为,集团利益的公共物品属性会引致集团成员普遍的搭便车行为,继而导致寻求自身利益最大化的行为人不会采取集体行动来实现共同利益,这在大集团中尤其如此.这就是所谓的集体行动困境.本文试图从理论上梳理集体行动困境产生的机制,同时探索走出集体行动困境的路径选择.     

Short-sale refinancing and price adjustment speed to bad news: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Short selling may accelerate stock price adjustment to negative news. However, the literature provides mixed evidence for this prediction. Using short-sale refinancing and a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model, this paper explores the effect of short selling on stock price adjustment. Our results show that (1) short-sale refinancing improves the speed of stock price adjustment to negative news. This result holds after we control for endogeneity. (2) The positive relationship between short-sale refinancing and stock price adjustment speed is significant in subsamples of stocks with higher earnings management or lower accuracy of analyst forecasts, indicating that firms with more opaque information are more likely to be targeted by short sellers. In subsamples of stocks with a higher ownership concentration or lower ownership by institutional investors, short selling is more likely to increase the speed of stock price adjustment, indicating that ownership structure may influence negative news mining. (3) As short-sale refinancing exacerbates the absorption of bad news by stock prices, it increases crash risk. This study enriches the research on the economic consequences of short selling and provides empirical evidence supporting regulations on short selling in China.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note:     

The China puzzle: Opportunities for accounting research

How can China achieve phenomenal economic growth despite what is considered as 'weak' institutions in market-based economies? Xu(2011) provides a framework to u...     

Aims and Scope

<正>The focus of the China Journal of Accounting Research is to publish theoretical and empirical research papers that use contemporary research methodologies to...     

Income smoothing and the cost of debt

The literature on income smoothing focuses on the effect of earnings smoothing on the equity market.This paper investigates the effect of income smoothing on th...     

The case for management history

This article defines the case for treating management history as a discrete subject area, although one closely related to business, accounting, labour, and industrial history. It seeks to concentrate on the nature, process, and practice of management as an activity within the organization, and to argue that it is important that modern British managers understand the intellectual and cultural roots of their profession, since without these they will tend to be swayed by short-term management 'fads'. Within the broad topic there are several identifiable sub-areas for potential exploration, including the comparative historical development of management between different countries, management institutions, managerial careers and labour markets, management structures, management skills, and management thought and theory.     

Cost accounting standard and cost accounting systems in Japan. Lessons from the past - recovering lost traditions

This paper aims to show two things. The first is how Japanese culture has contributed to the development of Japanese cost accounting history. The second is to reveal the research possibilities of cost accounting history. This paper also reviews the salient features of several important examples of these aspects of cost accounting practice in Japan. It therefore explores, through some practical illustrations, how and why Japanese cost accounting differs from that found in the West.     

The life and career of John Spence Ogilvy (1805-71), the first chartered accountant to emigrate to Australia

So far as the available evidence allows, this paper examines the life and career of John Spence Ogilvy, foundation member of the Society of Accountants in Edinburgh in 1854, who emigrated to Melbourne in 1856, but did not play a part in the development of an organized accounting profession in Australia. The paper also attempts to explain the gap of thirty-two years between the formation of the first accounting bodies in Edinburgh and Melbourne.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

【正】The China Journal of Accounting Research‘‘CJAR’’(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditin...     

Shared Standard Setting in the Public Interest:A Strong Model

正The last two decades have been a definitive era in the evolution of the accountancy profession.In the wake of major corporate scandals at the turn of the century,an international public debate arose on the need for more effective and well-considered regulation;this debate then reignited during the global financial and sovereign debt crises.