Critical factors and pathways influencing genetically modified food risk perceptions

This study aims to identify the critical factors and paths that affect the Chinese public’s risk perceptions of genetically modified (GM) foods from an emotional appraisal perspective. Using an experiment conducted with university undergraduate business students in China, we examined the evaluative pathways of the Chinese public by manipulating fairness and controllability appraisals in scenarios constructed about GM foods risk. The experiment was designed around two evaluative pathways – consequentialist and deontological perspectives – focusing on controllability and fairness. This led to a distinct set of emotional responses. It was found that both consequence-based and morality-based emotions caused stronger perceived risks toward GM foods. Understanding these responses provides new insight into how scientists and experts in China might best frame their communications about GM foods.     

Talking aggressively about GMOs? Examining the effect of aggressive risk communication with communicator’s facial expression and gender

Abstract

Two experiments (N = 229 and N = 268) assessed the effect of aggressive risk communication about GMOs by a scientist on respondents’ perceptions of message quality and writer (the scientist communicator) likability. We also considered two factors from the communicator that may influence how individuals process aggressive messages – facial expression (study 1) and the gender (study 2). Both studies showed that aggressive communication has a negative effect on both perceived message quality and writer likability, which is explained by the level of negative expectancy violation individuals perceived. Moreover, study 1 showed that smiling appeared to be a negative influence on the outcomes and study 2 showed that gender did not influence how people perceive aggressive messages. The findings provided both scholarly and practical implications for science and risk communication.     

Light me up: power and expertise in risk communication and policy-making in the e-cigarette health debates

Abstract

This paper presents a detailed account of policy-making in a contemporary risk communication arena, where strong power dynamics are at play that have hitherto lacked theoretical analysis and empirical validation. Specifically, it expands on the understanding of how public health policy decisions are made when there is a weak evidential base and where multiple interpretations, power dynamics and values are brought to bear on issues of risk and uncertainty. The aim of the paper is to understand the role that power and expertise play in shaping public health risk communication within policy-related debates. By drawing on insight from a range of literatures, the paper argues that there several interacting factors that shape how a particular narrative gains prominence within a wider set of perspectives and how the arguments and findings associated with that perspective become amplified within the context of policy choices. These findings are conceptualised into a new model – a policy evaluation risk communication (PERC) framework – and are then tested using the Electronic cigarette debate as a case study.     

An explanatory analysis of perceived risk decision weights (perceived-risk attitudes) and perceived benefit decision weights (perceived-benefit attitudes) in risk-value models

Abstract

All decision making requires a trade-off between risks and values. While Markowitz defined risk as the variance of returns (thus reasoning that investors should consider it as undesirable), the more general risk–value framework allows risk to be defined as a person’s subjective judgments. Psychological risk–return models go further, decomposing observed behavior (risk taking) into two processes: (1) a judgment of benefits and risks and (2) a trade-off between perceived benefits and perceived risks, with a person-specific willingness to trade-off units of returns (benefits) for units of risk, conceptualized as attitude toward perceived risk (PRA) and attitude toward perceived benefits (PBA). PRA and PBA describe the degree to which people find perceived risks and benefits attractive, all other things being equal, and are assumed to be relatively stable across situations and domains. We test this assumption in an empirical study, checking the temporal stability of PRA and PBA (using the a Domain-Specific Risk-Taking [DOSPERT] scale ) and the cross-task stability of PBA (performing comparisons between the DOSPERT and the Columbia Card Task[CCT]). Finally, we explain both PRA and PBA using the Big Five personality dimensions and Stimulating–Instrumental Risk Inventory (SIRI), showing that PBA weights increase with openness to experience, while the negative effect of perceived risk on risk taking (PRA) increases with conscientiousness and decreases with stimulating risk taking. The results show that PBA and PRA can be treated as traits which, in some instances at least, are stable across time and tasks, and which can be partially explained by personality, providing a link to the idea of a personality dependent ‘ideal point’ for risk preference.     

The use of expected value in pricing judgments

Lacking specific knowledge, the public perceives technical risks based on their trust in the authorities. This article explored the role of shared value in the process of trust judgment and risk perception of genetically modified (GM) foods. Study 1 showed that social trust was a mediator between shared value and risk perception. Higher value similarity between individual and spokesperson resulted in deeper trust in the institution; moreover, social trust effectively reduced public risk perception of GM foods. Study 2 demonstrated that shared value improved in the care and competence dimensions of trust. The two dimensions of trust were positively related, but only competence had a significant influence on risk perception. Implications for risk communication are discussed.     

Consumer reactions to unfamiliar technologies: mental and social formation of perceptions and attitudes toward nano and GM products

Abstract

Using focus groups, the research analyses the mental and social processes through which consumers form perceptions and opinions about unfamiliar technologies and the derived products, taking the perception of nanotechnology and nano-products, GM and GM products as example. Our findings suggest that limited understanding of the technological principles and lack of (visible) products prevent the formation of experience-based attitudes and behavioral intentions. In this context, consumers interpret and assess cognitive interventions such as product labels or product information, as well as the trustworthiness of unfamiliar information sources, based on heuristic clues, association, mutual reassurance and previous attitudes. The established determinants of technology risk perception (e.g. knowledge, social norms, perceived risks and benefits and controllability) were the subject of constant deliberation and negotiation among participants. Consequently, the perception of risk and technology communication interventions might vary greatly across different locations and segments of the public, complicating risk communication and trust-building.     

Extrapolating understanding of food risk perceptions to emerging food safety cases

Important determinants of risk perceptions associated with foods are the extent to which the potential hazards are perceived to have technological or naturally occurring origins, together with the acute vs. chronic dimension in which the potential hazard is presented (acute or chronic). This study presents a case study analysis based on an extensive literature review examining how these hazard characteristics affect people’s risk and benefit perceptions, and associated attitudes and behaviors. The cases include E. coli incidences (outbreaks linked to fresh spinach and fenugreek sprouts), contamination of fish by environmental pollutants, (organochlorine contaminants in farmed salmon), radioactive contamination of food following a nuclear accident (the Fukushima accident in Japan), and GM salmon destined for the human food chain. The analysis of the cases over the acute vs. chronic dimension suggests that longitudinal quantification of the relationship between risk perceptions and impacts is important for both acute and chronic food safety, but this has infrequently been applied to chronic hazards. Technologies applied to food production tend to potentially be associated with higher levels of risk perception, linked to perceptions that the risk is unnatural. However, for some risks (e.g. those involving biological irreversibility), moral or ethical concerns may be more important determinants of consumer responses than risk or benefit perceptions. (Lack of) trust has been highlighted in all of the cases suggesting transparent and honest risk–benefit communications following the occurrence of a food safety incident. Implications for optimizing associated risk communication strategies, additional research linking risk perception, and other quantitative measures, including comparisons in time and space, are suggested.     

Social cognition and personality traits related to risky driving in a Turkish sample

Aims: The aim of the study was to make a theoretical contribution by investigating social cognitive factors and personality traits related to risky driver behaviour in a Turkish sample. The study tested three theoretical models by Structural Equation Modelling: (1) a model using risk perception and attitudes towards traffic safety to predict driver behaviour, (2) a model which used normlessness and sensation-seeking traits to predict such behaviour and (3) a model which used both the social cognitive factors and personality traits to predict driver behaviour. Methods: A questionnaire survey with validated measurement instruments was conducted in a sample of Turkish drivers (n?=?213). The response rate was 61%. Results: A combined social cognitive and personality trait model had tolerable fit and explained 24% of the variance in driver behaviour. The relations between personality traits and risk perception with driver behaviour were mediated through attitudes towards traffic safety. Risk-taking personality traits had relatively strong relations to unsafe driver behaviour, whereas risk perception had a relatively weak relation to such behaviour. Conclusions: A combined social cognitive and trait approach may be efficient in human factor campaigns aimed to reduce risky driver behaviour in Turkey. Personality traits may be important for driver behaviour because they influence the attitudinal determinants of such behaviour. Increased police enforcement of road traffic regulations may reduce risky driving among individuals with normlessness and sensation-seeking traits. Personality traits may also guide efforts aimed at early identification of risky drivers and campaigns could be tailored to specific personality characteristics.     

Transparency in the food aisle: the influence of procedural justice on views about labeling GM foods

Issues of transparency lay at the center of the debate surrounding the labeling of genetically modified (GM) food products in the USA. These issues include not only the argument that consumers should be allowed to make purchasing choices based on full disclosure of product ingredients but also that they should have access to the process that makes decisions about labeling. This study examines the influence of procedural justice on perceived decision legitimacy and decision support regarding GM food labeling decisions. Using a 2 × 2 factorial design, participants recruited from an online Qualtrics panel (N = 450) were randomly assigned to read a fictitious news article about an agricultural company’s decision about whether to label their food products as having GM ingredients. Articles varied by the company’s labeling decision (label versus no label) and whether the company listened to public input prior to making the decision (public input versus no public input). The results showed significant main effects on decision support and perceived legitimacy for articles that mentioned public input. Specifically, when participants read articles stating that the company made its decision after listening to public input, they were more supportive of the decision and perceived the decision as more legitimate. Moreover, this main effect occurred irrespective of whether or not the company’s decision was to label GM foods. Our results confirm the influence of procedural justice perceptions in fostering support and perceived legitimacy for controversial risk-related decisions.     

Perceived risk and personality traits explaining heterogeneity in Dutch dairy farmers’ beliefs about vaccination against Bluetongue

When designing effective voluntary vaccination strategies against animal disease epidemics, policy-makers need to take into account that different groups of farmers base their participation decisions on different considerations. Using the past Bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic of 2006–2009 in Europe as an example, this paper uses the Reasoned Action Approach to identify a set of attitudinal beliefs being the major drivers behind the intended decision to participate in voluntary vaccination. The results show that there is heterogeneity among farmers in these beliefs. In particular, perceived risk, which was captured by a risk attitude and a risk perception of the farmer, and personality traits are associated with variability in beliefs about vaccination against Bluetongue. The patterns found between perceived risk, personality traits and other farm and farmer characteristics were discussed in relation to the governance of animal health.     

Citizens’ adaptive or avoiding behavioral response to an emergency message on their mobile phone

Abstract

Since November 2012, Dutch civil defense organizations employ NL-Alert, a cellular broadcast-based warning system to inform the public. Individuals receive a message on their mobile phone about the actual threat, as well as some advice how to deal with the situation at hand. This study reports on the behavioral effects of NL-Alert (n = 643). The current risk communication literature suggested underlying mechanisms as perceived threat, efficacy beliefs, social norms, information sufficiency, and perceived message quality. Results indicate that adaptive behavior and behavioral avoidance can be predicted by subsets of these determinants. Affective and social predictors appear to be more important in this context that socio-cognitive predictors. Implications for the use of cellular broadcast systems like NL-Alert as a warning tool in emergency situations are discussed.     

Exploring the effects of leaders’ individualized consideration in extreme contexts

Abstract

Role clarity and trust in leadership are two crucial factors supporting soldiers in coping with uncertainty and imperfect knowledge. The present study examined the effects of leaders’ individualized consideration on both factors in a sample composed of 161 paratroopers from a parachute division of the NATO Airborne Forces. Conditional process modeling revealed that (1) leaders showing individualized consideration increase followers’ role clarity and, in parallel, develop a trusting relationship with them; (2) critical upward communication and perceived workload mediated and moderated these relationships, respectively. The implications of these findings for safety research and their practical applications are outlined.     

Expert relevance and the use of context-driven heuristic processes in risk perception

The effectiveness of a medical treatment should not predict its risk (highly effective treatments can be either safe or risky), however, people’s use of heuristic shortcuts may lead them to judge a link between effectiveness and risk, typically a negative correlation. A particular concern is that experts might use such a strategy and that this is unlikely to provide an accurate judgement. This large-scale field-based experiment compares expert-relevant and non-expert-relevant contexts, for both expert and public judgements of risk and effectiveness in the context of blood transfusion medicine. Postal questionnaires were distributed to anaesthetists (experts, N?=?123) and a general public (non-expert) comparison group (N?=?1153); half of the participants were cued with accompanying general information about genetically-modified (GM) biotechnology and half received specific information about blood product technologies. The blood-focussed information served to emphasise the medical relevance of the questionnaire to the expert group. Regression analyses showed that generally perceived effectiveness predicted perceived risk for both experts and non-experts, which suggests heuristic processing. However, although experts appeared to engage in heuristic processing for risk perceptions in certain circumstances, this processing is strongly affected by context. Experts who received the medically relevant context rated perceptions of effectiveness independently of perceptions of risk, unlike those who received the GM context. This indicates a reduced reliance on a low-effort heuristic for experts given an expertise-relevant context. The results are considered in light of dual-process (rational-associative) accounts of reasoning.     

Risk and safety in large-scale socio-technological (military) systems: a literature review

Contemporary military practice relies more and more on technology and its artefacts and seem to have become, thereby, large-scale socio-technological systems; systems in which the social and the technological are closely tied together. An important issue in these kinds of systems, especially military ones, is how to safely use this technology. This paper reviews the literature for research on risk and safety in large-scale socio-technological systems for their ability to account for the complex dynamics from which safety in these kinds of systems tends to emerge – or not. After this, it evaluates some current accounts of risk and safety in the military specifically, so as to assess the ‘status’ – or analytical strength – of accounts of risk and safety in this domain. More rigour is needed in evaluations of risk and safety of technology in the military so as to provide analyses with sufficient analytic strength. This rigour, it turns out, can often be found in the interdisciplinary STS (science, technology and society) literature that, until today however, does not often seem to address risk and safety of large-scale socio-technological systems directly, and which seems to pay even less attention to risk and safety in the military.     

Industrial chemical regulation in the European Union and the United States: a comparison of REACH and the amended TSCA #

Abstract

In June 2016, after decades of debate, the U.S. Congress enacted a major revision to the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) of 1976, the U.S. regulatory law applicable to industrial chemicals. It has been theorized that Europe may seek to export its stricter environmental standards under REACH to the United States. Thus, it is interesting to examine whether the environmental, health, and safety practices – including the values – found in REACH impacted the TSCA reform debate in the U.S. We chose to focus the comparison on the following issues that were central features of REACH: responsibility to develop safety data, priorities for safety assessments, definition of the safety standard, restrictions on chemical use, and preemption of regulatory activity by lower levels of government. There are three major findings. First, the U.S. did not implement the EU’s solution of putting the burden of data generation, risk assessment, and risk management on the industry. Second, REACH is more precautionary in its design than the amended TSCA. Third, the new U.S. law is generally less strict than REACH in their requirements on industry, though it is also less preemptive of lower levels of government than REACH is. Moreover, the U.S. retains a common law approach to chemical-induced injury that is more punitive of industrial errors than is European Union law. The EU’s attempt to export REACH regulation failed in the case of U.S.A., as the U.S. Congress did not reform TSCA based on the REACH model. We conclude that, although the problems identified prior to the enactment of REACH were similar to those identified in the U.S., REACH’s key principles and elements were not adopted in the U.S.     

Measuring executive personality using machine-learning algorithms: A new approach and audit fee-based validation tests

We present a novel approach for measuring executive personality traits. Relying on recent developments in machine learning and artificial intelligence, we utilize the IBM Watson Personality Insights service to measure executive personalities based on CEOs’ and CFOs’ responses to questions raised by analysts during conference calls. We obtain the Big Five personality traits – openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness and neuroticism – based on which we estimate risk tolerance. To validate these traits, we first demonstrate that our risk-tolerance measure varies with existing inherent and behavioural-based measures (gender, age, sensitivity of executive compensation to stock return volatility, and executive unexercised-vested options) in predictable ways. Second, we show that variation in firm-year level personality trait measures, including risk tolerance, is largely explained by manager characteristics, as opposed to firm characteristics and firm performance. Finally, we find that executive inherent risk tolerance helps explain the positive relationship between client risk and audit fees documented in the prior literature. Specifically, the effect of CEO risk-tolerance – as an innate personality trait – on audit fees is incremental to the effect of increased risk appetite from equity risk-taking incentives (Vega). Measuring executive personality using machine-learning algorithms will thus allow researchers to pursue studies that were previously difficult to conduct.     

The significance of working capital management in determining firm profitability: Evidence from developing economies in Africa

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between working capital efficiency and corporate profitability and in particular, to determine their significance across countries with differential industrial levels.DesignThe paper adopts a quantitative approach using balanced panel data of manufacturing firms in Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa. We accessed financial statements of manufacturing firms from the Orbis database for the period 2005–2009. The database is known to be reliable and has universal acceptability.FindingsThe study reveals that there is a strong negative relationship between profitability, measured through net operating profit, and cash conversion cycles across different industrialisation typologies. The negative association implies that, when the cash conversion cycle increases, the profitability of the firm declines.Practical implicationsManagers can create positive value for shareholders by reducing the days customers settle their accounts, ensuring that they sell off their inventories as quickly as possible and delaying the payments to their suppliers, as long as this does not affect their credit rating.OriginalityTo the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to provide a fresh perspective on how working capital management influences profitability across Africa within different typologies.     

Predictors of the perceived risk of climate change and preferred resource levels for climate change management programs

In a 2013 US national public opinion survey, data were collected from 1321 adult respondents for five psychometric variables – Dread, Scientists’ Level of Understanding, Public’s Level of Understanding, Number Affected, and Likelihood – for six threats (sea-level rise, increased flooding, and four others) associated with climate change. Respondents also rated perceived risk and indicated the resource level that they believed should be invested in management programs for each threat. Responses did not vary significantly across the six threats, so they were combined. The survey collected standard demographic information, as well as measuring climate change knowledge and environmental values (New Ecological Paradigm, NEP). Psychometric variables predicted perceived risk extremely well (R = .890, p < .001); all five psychometric variables were significant predictors. The results were generally consistent with previous research except that Scientists’ Level of Understanding was a positive, rather than negative, predictor of perceived risk. Jointly the demographic variables, knowledge, and environmental values significantly predicted perceived risk (R = .504, p < .001). Consistent with previous research, significant positive predictors were age, Democratic Party Identification, and NEP score; significant negative predictors were male gender and White ethnicity. When demographic variables, knowledge, and environmental values were added to psychometric ones, only the psychometric variables were statistically significant predictors. Perceived risk strongly predicted resource level (r = .772, p < .001). Adding demographic, knowledge, and environmental value variables to perceived risk as predictors of resource level did not appreciably increase overall predictive ability (r = .790, p < .001), although White ethnicity emerged as a significant negative predictor and religiosity, Democratic Party Identification, Liberal Political Ideology, and NEP score were significant positive predictors. The results demonstrate that risk perceptions of climate change and policy preferences among climate change management options are highly predictable as a function of demographic, knowledge, environmental values, and psychometric variables. Among these, psychometric variables were found to be the strongest predictors.     

Factors Affecting Retirement Mortality

Abstract

As many countries consider mandatory individual retirement accounts as their answer to a secure social security system, the question arises as to whether all workers can get true “market value” annuities when they retire. It is clear today that private-sector life annuities are priced assuming that the applicant is healthy—very healthy. Very little underwriting or risk classification now exists in the individual annuity marketplace. However, if a large percentage of the population were looking to annuitize their social security accounts upon retirement, there would be strong pressure for more risk classes in the annuity-pricing structure.

Even without the advent of individual accounts for social security, the authors of this paper feel there may be real market opportunities for more risk classification in the individual annuity market and the offering of “impaired life annuities.” Given that this pressure does or might soon exist, this paper reviews 45 recent research papers that look at factors that affect mortality after retirement. In particular, factors that seem to be important in predicting retirement mortality include age, gender, race and ethnicity, education, income, occupation, marital status, religion, health behaviors, smoking, alcohol, and obesity. for each factor, this paper gives highlights relative to the named factor of the impact expected from that variable as described in the 45 reviewed research papers.

The authors believe there is a wealth of information contained in the summaries that follow, and it is our sincere hope that this paper will cause an increased interest in a more broadly based risk classification structure for individual annuities.

Summaries of the 45 papers can be found at www.soa.org/sections/farm/farm.html.     

Approaches towards a generic methodology for storage of hazardous energy carriers and waste products

Energy carriers – either conventional or ‘new’ ones – have to be provided in large amounts to meet the requirements of permanent availability and reliable supply of electricity. Depending on their state of aggregation, energy carriers are either stored in large masses (if solid or liquid) or at elevated pressures (if gaseous). Both impose the hazard of large-scale fire, in the latter case additionally the danger of explosion or unintended release. Very similar hazards occur for wastes. Solid wastes are present in large masses and only a small part is recycled. Most of the solid wastes are used in energy conversion. The main gaseous waste is CO₂. During capturing also the hazard of unintended release exists. In this article, existing approaches for safe storage and fire prevention are discussed and a generic methodology is outlined. This methodology consists of the following steps:

? gaining knowledge about the behaviour of the material stored (reactivity, thermal stability, etc.),

? assessing the environmental conditions for the storage site (neighbourhood, safety distances, etc.),

? assessment of prospective consequences of an incident and

? development of individual loss prevention conceptions.

All steps require both experimental testing and theoretical considerations about accident scenarios as integral parts of the methodology.