diologyChinese Journal of Interventional CardiologyChinese Journal of Interventional CardiologyChinese Journal of Interv

entional CardiologyChinese Journal of Interventional CardiologyChinese Journal of Interventional CardiologyChinese Journal of Interventional CardiologyChinese Journal of Interventional CardiologyChinese Journal of Interventional CardiologyChinese Journal of Interventional CardiologyChinese Jo     

An extension of the validity of »Student»-Fisher's law of distribution

Abstract

One of the fundamental laws of the distribution of errors within modern theoretical statistics is the »Student»-Fisher law of distribution, which answers the question:     

Perceptions of climate change among members of the House of Peoples’ Representatives,Ethiopia

Climate change has become an issue which touches upon all spheres of life. To combat the problem, understanding the perceptions of all that have stake in it provides with stronger ground for decision-making. Ethiopia is one those countries that are or going to be severely affected by climate change, the solution of which partly depends on how its key decision-makers perceive the problem. In light of this a questionnaire survey was conducted on 195 volunteering members of the House of People’s Representatives in Ethiopia. The results of data analysis reveal that most identified rainfall variability, declining hydrology and increasing temperature as manifestations of climate change, and emission reduction and forest protection as its key solutions.     

Analysts’ estimates of the cost of equity capital

We explore a large sample of analysts' estimates of the cost of equity capital (CoE) to evaluate their usefulness as expected return proxies (ERP). We find that the CoE estimates are significantly related to a firm's beta, size, book-to-market ratio, leverage, and idiosyncratic volatility but not other risk proxies. Even after controlling for the popular return predictors, the CoE estimates incrementally predict future stock returns. This predictive ability is better explained as the CoE estimates containing ERP information rather than reflecting stock mispricing. When evaluated against traditional ERPs, including the implied costs of capital, the CoE estimates are found to be the least noisy. Finally, we document CoE responses around earnings announcements, demonstrating their usefulness to study discount-rate reactions of market participants. We conclude that analysts' CoE estimates are meaningful ERPs that can be fruitfully employed in a variety of asset pricing contexts.     

Approximating functionals of local martingales under lack of uniqueness of the Black–Scholes PDE solution

When the underlying stock price is a strict local martingale process under an equivalent local martingale measure, the Black–Scholes PDE associated with a European option may have multiple solutions. In this paper, we study an approximation for the smallest hedging price of such an European option. Our results show that a class of rebate barrier options can be used for this approximation. Among them, a specific rebate option is also provided with a continuous rebate function, which corresponds to the unique classical solution of the associated parabolic PDE. Such a construction makes existing numerical PDE techniques applicable for its computation. An asymptotic convergence rate is also studied when the knock-out barrier moves to infinity under suitable conditions.     

Analysis of Consumers’ Perceptions of Buying Conditions for Houses

This paper examines the determinants of consumers’ buying attitudes for houses from January 1984 through June 2005. Data on buying attitudes are from responses to the Surveys of Consumer Attitudes conducted by the Survey Research Center, University of Michigan. The determinants considered include current and expected interest rates, wealth, expected real disposable income, expected change in financial status and house prices. The empirical estimates show that a long-run relationship exists between buying attitudes for houses and each of the above variables. Each of these determinants also Granger cause buying perceptions. Generalized impulse responses show that shocks to each of the above variables have a predictable and permanent impact on buying attitudes. Furthermore, generalized variance decompositions suggest that both current and expected interest rates explain a large proportion of the variation in consumers’ perceptions towards buying houses. Since consumers’ attitudes towards buying houses are likely to be translated into actual purchases, this study shows that in order of importance, interest rates—both current and future—have the maximum impact on decisions to purchase houses followed by expectations of real disposable income.

Heart of Darkness： A ＂Parody＂ of Metafiction

约瑟夫·康拉德的小说《黑暗之心》除了具有反殖民主义的高度和探索人性的深度,其叙事手法与后来出现的元小说十分相似,因此极为引人入胜。本文以元小说的叙事手法为背景,通过对比和比较,发现康拉德在《黑暗之心》中采用的其中一种叙事手法与"叙述的叙述"这一典型的元小说叙事手法实则貌合神离,或者说前者是对后者的戏拟,二者的异同也折射出了现代文学与后现代文学之间存在的本质差异与相似之处。     

Discussion of ‘The antecedents of the use of continuous auditing in the internal auditing context’

Gonzalez et al. (2012) apply the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT, Venkatesh et al., 2003) to the issue of adoption of continuous auditing (CA) by internal auditors. The authors make a very convincing case for the slow evolution of CA and propose that this can be explained by the four factors contained in the UTAUT as well as annual sales and voluntariness of use. They find, in their revised model, that effort expectancy and social influence directly impact intentions to use the technology, while performance expectancy is moderated by annual sales and social influence is moderated by voluntariness of use. Interestingly, the authors also identify geographical differences in these influences. I offer commentary on these findings and suggest avenues for future research in the domain of technology adoption and use in accounting.     

The use of multi‐level modelling in risk research. A secondary analysis of a study of public perceptions of genetically modified food

Many studies have examined the relationship between various individual variables and people's perceptions of genetically modified (GM) food. A problem with this type of research is that contextual factors are completely ignored. This article explores the use of multi‐level modelling in the field of risk research, by re‐analysing a recent British study of public perceptions of GM food. As the study employed a multi‐stage sampling strategy, it could be used to examine simultaneously the individual and spatial variation in trust and the acceptability of GM food. While the geographical variation in acceptability was largely due to compositional differences between the sampling points, a geographical variation in trust remained after controlling for individual differences. The analysis demonstrated that city‐dwellers commonly have more trust in the regulation of GM food than other respondents. Next to being associated with a number of socio‐demographic variables, both acceptability and trust were related strongly to voting intention. Moreover, the results suggest that there is a link between vulnerable groups, feelings of exclusion, and (dis)trust. The article is concluded by arguing that multi‐level modelling provides new opportunities for simultaneously examining the individual and contextual basis of public perceptions of controversial risk issues.     

What is the Truth About the Scale of Japanese Banks' Bad Debts? Is the Situation Manageable?

In January 1998, the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF, 1998) released figures which suggested that the Japanese banking industry';s bad debts might be as high as ¥77 trillion (since revised upward to ¥87.5 trillion, if cooperative-type institutions are included; Financial Supervisory Agency (FSA), 1998). This compared with the previous official estimate of ¥28 trillion. The revelation was designed to do three things: (1) to convince investors, at home and abroad, who had long suspected that the true level of bad debts was much higher than the authorities (and the banks) were willing to admit to, that the authorities were sincere in their quest to enhance disclosure by local financial intermediaries; (2) to stifle opposition to the government's plans to use up to ¥30 trillion (since increased to ¥60 trillion) of public funds to stabilize the financial system¹ by underlining the gravity of the situation facing the Japanese economy; and (3) to pave the way for the introduction of more transparent reporting by the banks in April 1998 when a regime of prompt corrective action (PCA)² was scheduled to commence. This article explains the evolution of bad debt disclosure by the Japanese banking industry and assesses the significance of the latest figures. In particular, it highlights the extent to which accounting forbearance has been, and continues to be, used to mask the true level of the banks' bad debts and refutes the claim that the industry's bad debt burden peaked in 1995. The banking industry's ability to handle the continuing bad debt problem, in the face of a significant impairment of economic capital and the market's relentless drive for full disclosure and transparency, also is assessed.     

A New Approach to Group Structure, Burden Sharing, and the Equilibrium Provision of Public Goods

In the received model of the voluntary provision of a pure public good, the usual practice is to proceed from assumptions about the group characteristics to inferences about an implied outcome. The approach advocated in this paper reverses the traditional direction. Assuming a Nash equilibrium, we ask how to characterize the diverse set of group characteristics which will support it. Approaching the problem from this angle we define three crucial characteristics of a group-equilibrium: consumer's free rider inducing supply, zero contribution-inducing wealth and voluntary surplus tribute which is the amount by which a person's actual income exceeds his/her zero-contribution inducing wealth. Defining these indicators we show how they form the foundation of a complete mapping between the distribution of individual characteristics of a group, and equilibrium public good supply. Certain questions such as the interaction between size of the group and heterogeneity of incomes and tastes not yet adequately addressed are shown to yield easily to this approach.     

Information Monopoly and Commitment in Intermediary-Firm Relationships

A bank may use the private information that it acquires through monitoring to hold up borrowers. This information monopoly of the bank may inefficiently distort the borrowers investment decisions in environments where moral hazard is prevalent. The paper analyses how this problem is resolved within bank-firm relationships. In the benchmark case when the bank can contractually commit to future actions, the optimal contract turns out to be ambiguous in nature. When commitment contracts cannot be written, firms have an incentive to develop multiple banking relationships in order to decrease the inside banks bargaining power. However, with costly monitoring, this may defeat the initial purpose for contracting with a financial intermediary, namely information production. The paper argues that when contractual commitment is not feasible, bank size may serve as an alternative commitment device that prevents the bank from holding up borrowers in the future.     

The impact of settlement period on sales price

This study is an empirical investigation of the impact of settlement period on sales price while controlling for marketing period and standard explanatory variables. The hypothesized positive relationship between settlement period and sales price is confirmed by the results of this study. The estimated coefficient on settlement period is 0.0008 meaning that our market, on average, exacts a premium of 0.08 percent per day of settlement period beyond a norm of 60 days. The estimated coefficient on marketing period (a control variable) is –0.0003 meaning that our market, on average, requires a discount of 0.03 percent per day of marketing period. Our findings show the relative importance of settlement period in making real estate pricing decisions.     

Modernizing Financial Regulation: The Relation Between Interbank Transactions and Supervisory Reform

Modernized financial firms are larger than traditional institutions, and they provide a broader range of services. Although the individual regulatory issues raised by modernization are not new, the pace and scope of these market changes may imply a qualitative change in the ability of governments to guarantee financial system stability. Private market discipline is more flexible, and the value of flexibility seems to have risen. In order to elicit private monitoring, however, governments must credibly eschew too-big-to-fail policies. Toward this end, national regulators should encourage ongoing efforts to implement secure interbank settlement systems.     

Company Tax Structure and Company Tax Incidence

This paper reviews conflicting theories of company tax incidence impliedby the alternative new and traditional views of dividends andexamines their contrasting policy implications. Whereas, under thetraditional view, closer integration of the corporate and personalincome tax systems is suggested, an alternative policy orientationemphasizing the non-distorting features of the classical system is impliedby the new view. Even if the traditional view is accepted, theimplications for design and reform of the company tax vary widely underalternative specifications of domestic and international tax policy objectives. Schedular alternatives to global income taxation are alsoconsidered.     

Measuring Potential GSE Funding Advantages

As the size of government sponsored enterprises (GSE) has grown, attention has focused on the relationship between the federal government and the GSEs, with particular attention focused on estimating the impact of this relationship on GSE debt costs. Quantifying the GSEs cost advantage is a controversial exercise with several competing methodologies providing divergent values. Thus, this paper reviews the methods that have been utilized in previous studies and recommends an alternative approach that overcomes many of the criticisms of previous work. By using offering yields on GSE debt, we find that the three housing GSEs enjoyed an average advantage of between 25 and 29 basis points over AA banking sector bonds, between 43 and 47 basis points over A rated bonds, and between 76 and 80 basis points over BBB rated banking issues. We find that our results are robust to both the basic approach taken as well as to model specification.     

A General Theorem on the Comparative Statics of Changes in Risk

In this paper, the concept of absolutely riskier than is introduced to generalize Gollier's (Journal of Economic Theory, 66, 522–535) necessary and sufficient conditions for the comparative statics of a change in risk for risk averters. The restrictive assumption that the payoff function is monotonic in the risk is relaxed. The policymaker's choice problem, the newsboy problem, and a farmer's example are used to illustrate how easily the monotonicity assumption is violated. Finally, some important properties of the concept of absolutely riskier than, such as its relation with the concept of second-order stochastic dominance, are illustrated using the farmer's example.     

Corporate Real Estate and Stock Market Performance

An interesting question in corporate real estate literature is whether real estate can improve the stock market performance of property-intensive non-real estate firms. Using a data set comprising 75 non-real estate corporations that own at least 20 percent properties, this paper empirically assesses and compares the pair-wise return, total risk, systematic risk and Jensen abnormal return performance of composite (with real estate) and hypothetical business (without real estate) firms. We employed Morgan Stanley Capital International world equity index instead of a local market index to provide some insights into the performance of the local market relative to the global market during the 1997–2001 volatile periods experienced by many Asian countries. Our results suggest the inclusion of real estate in a corporate portfolio appears to be associated with lower return, higher total risk, higher systematic risk and poorer abnormal return performance. It is therefore likely that non-real estate firms own properties for other reasons in addition to seeking improvement in their stock market performance. Further research is needed to explore the main factors contributing to corporate real estate ownership by non-real estate firms.     

Optimal Consumption Taxes and Social Security Under Tax Measurement Problems and Uncertainty

A representative individual lives for two periods; works when young and depends on savings and a government operated social security system when old—the returns on both sources of income, when old, are random. Due to administrative problems the returns to savings are observed with some measurement error. Two alternative consumption tax systems are considered; the Registered Asset Treatment (RAT) and the Non-Registered Asset Treatment (NRAT). The advantage of the RAT is that it can perform a social insurance role while the disadvantage is that it imposes measurement error risk. Correlation between the random return on saving and its measurement error can provide a risk-hedging role that can be further strengthened by the RAT version. The NRAT version neither provides social insurance nor imposes measurement error risk. Both tax systems hedge against the uncertainties in the social security system. The taxpayer engages in precautionary saving in response to future uncertainty.