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1.
财务困境是指企业丧失支付能力,无力支付到期债务或费用,以及出现资不抵债的经济现象。对于财务困境的具体界定,国内外存在明显的差异:绝大多数国外研究都将企业破产界定为财务困境,而国内由于上市公司破产样本几乎没有,所以大多数研究都将“因财务状况恶化”而被戴帽的T族上市公司界定为财务困境。  相似文献   

2.
上市公司财务风险的预测对企业和投资者的意义重大,本文以中国上市公司为研究对象,以上市公司被特别处理作为上市公司陷入财务困境的标志,在沪深股市中选取19家财务困境公司和38家正常公司作为样本,应用Clementine软件,利用财务指标建立Logit回归模型,以探索同新经济形势相适应的我国上市公司财务预警模型。根据所建立的模型对2016年部分上市公司财务状况进行预测分析,并在独立的预测样本集上进行比较,实验结果表明统计模型能有效地进行财务困境预测。  相似文献   

3.
本文在系统研究了国内外关于财务困境预测方面的理论和方法的基础上,以我国的沪深两市上市公司为研究对象,将中国上市公司因财务状况异常而被特别处理(ST)作为企业陷入财务困境的标志,采用主成分分析方法确定模型变量,利用Clementine软件进行Logistic回归,并在此基础上构建了财务困境预测模型.  相似文献   

4.
一、引言 财务破产是指企业资不抵债的状况[1],是财务困境的四种情形中最严重的一种.Altman[2]年将财务困境分为经营失败(failure)、无偿付能力(insolvency)、违约(default)和破产(bankruptcy)四种情形.吕长江等认为,财务困境和财务破产都是公司财务状态变化过程中的两个不同的状态,但二者财务状况的恶化程度不同.企业陷入财务困境是一个逐步的过程,通常从财务稳定发展到财务困境,如果继续恶化就会走向财务破产.财务困境是一个动态持续的过程,陷入财务困境的公司要么走向破产,要么走出财务困境.财务破产是公司财务状况处于非常危险的境地,陷入财务破产的公司财务状况将进一步恶化,以至于公司无法正常经营,更无法偿还到期债务.  相似文献   

5.
一、研究样本的设计 在我国,由于国情的特殊性,迄今为止尚未出现一家上市公司破产的案例,所以根本无法将破产企业作为我们的研究对象.正因为如此,在为数不多的财务预警研究中,几乎所有的研究都是将研究对象界定为因"财务状况异常"(ST)而被特别处理的上市公司.本文将研究对象界定为财务状况异常的上市公司的理由可以从以下几个方面来论述:一是上市公司具有代表性,第二个就是上市公司的资料比较完整,最后一个就是ST的上市公司特征明显.  相似文献   

6.
随着我国证券市场和资本市场的快速发展,上市公司的数量日益增长,但发生财务危机进而破产的企业也越来越多.因此,建立财务预警模型对企业的财务运营过程进行跟踪、监控,及早发现财务危机信号,预测企业未来的财务状况,具有非常重要的现实意义.  相似文献   

7.
随着我国证券市场和资本市场的快速发展,上市公司的数量日益增长,但发生财务危机进而破产的企业也越来越多。因此,建立财务预警模型对企业的财务运营过程进行跟踪、监控,及早发现财务危机信号,预测企业未来的财务状况,具有非常重要的现实意义。  相似文献   

8.
研究分析表明,在牛市中发行股票的公司比在熊市中发行股票的公司更换会计师事务所的概率大。更换会计师事务所的上市公司在更换前财务状况普遍有恶化的趋势,很多公司甚至陷入“财务困境”而成为ST、PT公司。  相似文献   

9.
本文以2008年经济危机以来的经济环境为背景,以上市公司受到退市风险警示作为其陷入财务困境的标志,在沪深股市中选取19家财务困境公司和57家正常公司作为样本,利用所有者权益比率、现金比率等财务指标建立Logit回归模型,以探索同新经济形势相适应的我国上市公司财务预警模型。根据所建立的模型对2016年部分上市公司财务状况进行预测分析,并针对我国制造业提出了加强信息化水平、淘汰落后产能等政策性建议。  相似文献   

10.
本文通过选取1998—2013年间沪、深两市48家A股ST公司为样本,对已有研究成果进行总结和评价,分析认为上市公司陷入财务困境可能会引起企业业绩的下降,并且企业业绩下降也会导致上市公司陷入财务困境,最终分析认为无法从经营业绩观计量财务困境成本。对基于权益价值观从样本公司财务困境开始年到困境解除年的财务困境成本问题进行了研究,研究发现:企业投资者在财务困境期间平均承担了1.68%的财务困境成本,针对存在财务困境成本的原因进行分析的同时提出了应对财务困境风险的措施。  相似文献   

11.
The current economic crisis is showing one of the main problems that many companies in financial distress have to face, namely, the impact of bankruptcy law in relation to companies and firms. This paper aims to analyze the bankruptcy law ex‐ante efficiency when companies are in financial distress. To test it out, two research questions are submitted: (i) Is solvency, the criterion used in the Spanish law, the best one to assess the relative significance of the main indicators, which determine bankrupt firms? (ii) Is the Spanish bankruptcy law efficient according to solvency or are there better criteria? To answer them, a logistic regression model is conducted. The sample embraces 1,387 firms in Spain, the data being obtained from 12 Commercial Justice Courts complemented with financial information. The main conclusion is that the solvency criterion is adequate to classify bankrupt companies although currently Spanish Bankruptcy law is not as efficient as it could be. Additionally, the relevant companies' indicators, which explain the financial distress procedure, are presented. Copyright © 2013 INSOL International and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd  相似文献   

12.
以2002~2007年陷入财务危机的民营上市公司(ST公司)为研究样本.通过相关分析实证检验了中国债务融资的破产威胁功效.研究发现,中国民营上市公司债务融资总体上对财务状况恶劣的公司起到了债务治理作用,发挥了破产威胁功效。短期债务能够对陷入财务危机的民营上市公司起到改善业绩的作用,较好地发挥破产威胁功效,而长期债务未能发挥破产威胁作用。银行贷款能够促进陷入财务困境的民营上市公司改善业绩,发挥破产威胁功效,而商业信用却没能发挥破产威胁功效。  相似文献   

13.
Using a sample of 23,218 company-year observations of listed companies during the period 1980–2011, the paper investigates empirically the utility of combining accounting, market-based and macro-economic data to explain corporate credit risk. The paper develops risk models for listed companies that predict financial distress and bankruptcy. The estimated models use a combination of accounting data, stock market information and proxies for changes in the macro-economic environment. The purpose is to produce models with predictive accuracy, practical value and macro dependent dynamics that have relevance for stress testing. The results show the utility of combining accounting, market and macro-economic data in financial distress prediction models for listed companies. The performance of the estimated models is benchmarked against models built using a neural network (MLP) and against Altman's (1968) original Z-score specification.  相似文献   

14.
To explore characteristics of guarantee networks that drive financial distress, we use a dataset comprising 20,467 firm-year observations from Chinese companies listed on the Shanghai and the Shenzhen Stock Exchanges to construct networks from 85,229 guarantee relationships. We show that guarantee networks have a negative effect on company financial distress, revealed by cash holdings and long-term liabilities. Larger networks, those with an Achilles heel, and companies with high closeness centrality exacerbate this effect, and companies in a stronger financial position suffer greater negative impacts. Guarantee networks may also exert their negative impact by acting as a channel for shareholder tunneling.  相似文献   

15.
This study examines firm-level determinants of the government incentives to acquire controlling stakes in private companies. Using a novel hand-collected dataset of 153 largest listed and unlisted Russian companies, I investigate the methods and the rationales of a 2004–2008 wave of selected nationalizations in a post-privatization market. I find robust evidence that formerly privatized and domestically-owned companies in strategically important sectors face the highest risks of corporate control transfers from private to state hands. I also find that the corporate tax evasion is another significant determinant of a firm nationalization. Contrary to commonly held beliefs, there is little evidence that renationalizations in Russia are driven by firm profitability factors: the government neither systematically “cherry-picks” best performers nor addresses market failures by rescuing national champions in financial distress. These results contribute to t'he politics and finance literature by providing new firm-level evidence on the importance of strategic nationalism in the government's decision to intervene into the corporate control structures.  相似文献   

16.
As Australia becomes an increasingly important equity market, the level of information disclosed by Australian listed companies is likely to be of interest to a growing audience of prospective investors. This study tests the relation between five firm-specific variables drawn from agency theory and the general level of financial information voluntarily disclosed by companies listed on the Australian Stock Exchange. The five variables are foreign listing status, firm size; leverage, assets-in-place and type of audit firm. The empirical evidence suggests that foreign listing status, firm size, and type of audit firm are significantly related to the level of information voluntarily disclosed by listed companies.  相似文献   

17.
Abstract:   This study examines the interactive effects of change in managing director/chief executive officer (MD) and financial distress together with five control variables (type of audit firm; audit fees; gearing; time; and company size) on first, audit opinion and secondly on auditor switching. Based on a sample of 297 UK listed companies between 1987 and 2001, we find that companies that are financially distressed and change their MD are most likely to receive a qualified audit report, ceteris paribus . In addition, we find evidence of both familiarity and intimidation threats and that the probability of a switch increases with the severity of qualification.  相似文献   

18.
When a firm is in financial distress, in most cases a set ofmutually advantageous reorganization plans exist. This articleshows that the bankruptcy code, by providing rules governingthe negotiation process, yields a unique solution to the reorganizationprocess. In addition, the structure imposed by the code mitigatesthe holdout problem created by the individual claimant's divergentincentives.  相似文献   

19.
Financial flexibility helps improve firm performance. By using data from Chinese listed companies, we examine whether investment scale or investment efficiency drives the relationship between financial flexibility and firm performance via a special mediator testing method that is widely used in the psychology literature (Baron and Kenny, 1986). We find that financial flexibility has a significant and positive effect on both investment and firm performance. However, investment scale rather than investment efficiency seems to drive firm performance. This finding helps us understand that Chinese companies tend to emphasize investment expansion more than they do investment efficiency to improve firm performance.  相似文献   

20.
杨子晖  张平淼  林师涵 《金融研究》2022,506(8):152-170
本文采用Logit回归模型以及随机森林模型、梯度提升模型等前沿机器学习方法,深入考察系统性风险指标对我国企业财务危机的预测能力。结果表明,系统性风险对中下游企业的财务危机具有显著的预测能力,而基于因子分析构建的系统性风险指标,结合随机森林模型可取得更好的预测效果。本文进一步区分财务危机的不同成因并发现,基于随机森林模型和Logit回归模型的预测框架能够对我国大多数财务危机事件进行有效预警。在此基础上,本文对我国上市企业监管提出相关建议,从而为完善金融风险处置机制提供一定参考。  相似文献   

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