我国机构投资者询价行为特征实证分析

本文收集整理了2006年-2008年26单IPO项目询价数据样本,通过组间方差分析、构建认购深度和标准化相对价格偏差指标、Kendall等级相关分析等方法,对我国询价制度中存在的问题进行实证分析.我国IPO定价的询价制度变革取得巨大成就,但仍存在较大改进空间.我国新股发行采用询价制度,是顺应时代潮流的体现,是圆际累计订单询价制度在中国的具体运用,可以考虑通过赋予主承销商一定自主配售权、大力发展机构投资者、改进目前电子化制度、提高机构报价决策灵活度、引入后市稳定机制、明确机构报价权责等措施来进一步提高一级市场定价效率.     

关于我国现行IPO询价制度分析

2004年12月7日,中国证监会颁发了《关于首次公开发行股票试行询价制度若干问题的通知》,通知规定从2005年开始我国新股发行定价改革为市场询价定价制度.实行十年来,证券市场发展突飞猛进,与我们实行的市场化定价机制不无关系.但是与国外成熟的资本市场比较,我国IPO询价制度还存在不足之处.     

IPO新规及其影响探析

2006年9月19,《证券发行与承销管理办法》正式实施,这部7000余字的法规重点规范了首次公开发行股票的询价、定价以及股票配售等环节,完善了现行的询价制度,被业界称为IPO新规。本文首先介绍IPO新规的主要内容,其次分析IPO新规实施一年多来对证券发行市场的影响,最后对IPO新规提出相应的改进建议。     

IPO询价发行制度重大调整详解

IPO询价发行制度将从四个方面做出重大调整:一是中小板企业通过初步询价直接定价;二是网上网下申购同步进行;三是只有参与初步询价的询价对象才能参与网下申购,并对有效询价的询价对象最低数量做出规定;四是4亿股以上的IPO可以向战略投资者配售,可以采用“超额配售选择权”机制,即“绿鞋”机制。     

询价制度改革与新股发行定价——来自创业板的经验证据

基于询价制改革的背景,从制度变革对承销商与询价对象行为影响的角度,以创业板新股为实证样本,研究了中国股票市场的IPO定价问题。结果表明:随着询价制改革的推进,创业板IPO定价有了显著的下降。在制度层面,赋予承销商配售权与引入个人投资者参与网下询价均有利于降低IPO定价,但是取消网下申购股票锁定期却提高了IPO定价。     

新股询价制度考量中介机构

2004年8月30日,中国证监会公开向市场征求对<关于首次发行股票试行询价制度若干问题的通知>(征求意见稿)的意见,预示着证监会将从制度上解决在IPO定价问题,有人称之为"IPO新政".试行新股询价制度,将对我国证券市场的从业者,特别是券商、律师、顾问公司、基金公司等产生极大的影响,从经营理念、业务能力、承销能力、服务水平等方面全面考量中介机构,给他们带来机会的同时,也将带来更多的挑战.     

IPO定价方式的比较分析与我国IPO定价的市场化改革

资本市场的基本功能之一就是对资产进行合理定价。国际上常用的IPO定价评估方法主要有三大类。分别是绝对估值法、相对估值法和实物期权法,在具体运用过程中,它们各自都有优缺点。而当前我国IPO定价存在的问题表现为抑价幅度过大、机构投资者操纵新股询价、发行监管部门的权力与责任不对等以及发行公司信息披露机制不完善。改变这些不足的方法是坚持IPO定价的市场化改革方向,尤其是要引入问责机制,进一步完善IPO询价制度。     

我国IPO询价制实证分析

我国目前的新股询价制度向市场化方向迈出了一大步，但询价制还没有实现新股定价的彻底市场化，市场还没有经由IPO询价获得更为令人满意的资源配置效率。询价制存在着缺乏询价制度所必需的基本市场结构，忽视中小投资者的利益，询价机构不诚信、进行利益输送，询价机构定价能力偏低等问题，迫切需要加以完善。     

审计师声誉影响股票定价吗——来自IPO定价市场化的证据

本文以IPO定价市场化为背景,研究实施询价后的审计师声誉对IPO定价的影响。文章以"四大"和国内排名前十大的会计师事务所来衡量审计师声誉,采用多元回归和两阶段回归方法对假设进行检验,结果发现审计师声誉与公司询价水平正相关,但在统计上并不显著;在对抑价率的检验中,我们发现审计师声誉显著降低股票抑价率。进一步地,我们发现在民营上市公司中,上述关系更为稳健。总体来看,审计师声誉已经初步影响了股票定价。     

改进我国IPO发售机制、提高发售效率的路径选择

我国目前的新股询价制度没有获得更为令人满意的资源配置效率,询价制存在着一系列问题,迫切需要加以完善。我国证券市场的进一步发展有赖于以市场化改革为核心的制度变革,包括新股发行的制度变革在内。应在国家明确的政策支持下,坚持市场化方向,以荷兰式竞标法完善IPO询价制度,在适当时机推行新股的竞价发行。     

Underpricing and Firm Quality in Initial Public Offerings: Evidence from Singapore

Firms seeking initial public listings on the Stock Exchange of Singapore can choose between offering their shares at a fixed price or selling them in two tranches: the first tranche is offered at a fixed price while the issue price of the second tranche is determined via a tender system. Consistent with the existing signalling literature, tendering IPO firms underprice their fixed price tranche more than non-tendering IPO firms. The underpricing in the fixed tranche is recouped through higher proceeds from the tender tranche. Our evidence suggests that IPO firms use the tender option to signal superior firm quality.     

对当前外方股权转让价款管理的思考

外方股权转让是指外商投资企业的外方将所持有的股权按照一定的价格转让给中方的行为。允许外商投资企业自由转让外方股权是市场经济制度的一个特征,但在目前资本项目实施管制的框架下,对外方股权转让价款的运用受到外汇政策上的限制。为了规避外汇管理,企业利用交易双方的关系、定价机制的不完善,通过私下交割等手段运作股权转让价款,并将其滞留在境内,谋求人民币升值的收益,隐蔽性较强,一旦外汇形势发生变化,容易出现资金集中流出冲击实体经济的后果。所以进一步完善对此类业务的管理,具有现实意义。     

股权分置与大股东权力寻租的治理

我国股市的股权分置制度和公司治理制度的不完善,导致了上市公司的非流通股股东利用本身绝对控股的权力,进行权力寻租,侵蚀上市公司利益,损害其他股东权益,导致我国资本市场的低效率.本文提出了建立起针对投融资人的资信评价体系;以新带老,缩小流通股与非流通股价差;加强公司内部治理制度和证券市场监管等措施,规范非流通股股东行为,防止大股东权力寻租的一些方法.     

外资入股中资商业银行的法律监管

目前,我国对外资银行的市场准入监管,以新设投资监管为主,而外资参股方式的准入监管却相当薄弱。本文从外资入股中资商业银行的动因分析入手,指出现阶段对外资入股中资银行进行法律监管的必要性。然后,对外资参股的立法现状及其问题进行了深入探讨,主要围绕银监会颁布的《境外金融机构投资入股中资金融机构管理办法》展开评析,重点剖析了外资入股比例、股权转让价格、对被参股银行的监管以及机构混业监管方面所存在问题和隐患,并在此基础上提出了完善相应法律监管的若干建议和措施,即严格限定外资入股比例,进一步细化外资入股的程序规则;合理确定入股价格,健全信息披露制度。     

Banks' Liquidity and the Cost of Liquidity to Corporations

We consider the liquidity shock banks experienced following the collapse of the asset‐backed commercial paper (ABCP) market in the fall of 2007 to investigate whether banks' liquidity conditions affect their ability to provide liquidity to corporations. We find that banks that borrowed more from the Federal Home Loan Bank system or the Federal Reserve's discount window following that liquidity shock passed a larger portion of their borrowing costs onto corporations seeking access to liquidity when compared to the precrisis period. This increase is larger among banks with a bigger exposure to the ABCP market, credit lines that pose more liquidity risk to banks, and borrowers that are likely dependent on the credit‐line provider. Our findings show that the crisis that affected the banking system had a negative effect not only on the price of credit to corporations, but also on the price corporations pay to guarantee access to liquidity.     

Clearing price distributions in call auctions

We propose a model for price formation in financial markets based on the clearing of a standard call auction with random orders, and verify its validity for prediction of the daily closing price distribution statistically. The model considers random buy and sell orders, placed employing demand- and supply-side valuation distributions; an equilibrium equation then leads to a distribution for clearing price and transacted volume. Bid and ask volumes are left as free parameters, permitting possibly heavy-tailed or very skewed order flow conditions. In highly liquid auctions, the clearing price distribution converges to an asymptotically normal central limit, with mean and variance in terms of supply/demand-valuation distributions and order flow imbalance. By means of simulations, we illustrate the influence of variations in order flow and valuation distributions on price/volume, noting a distinction between high- and low-volume auction price variance. To verify the validity of the model statistically, we predict a year's worth of daily closing price distributions for five constituents of the Eurostoxx 50 index; Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics and QQ-plots demonstrate with ample statistical significance that the model predicts closing price distributions accurately, and compares favourably with alternative methods of prediction.     

Price and output adjustment: Micro foundations and aggregation

The paper deals with the derivation of aggregate price and output adjustment models from the micro-foundations of individual firms' behavior under monopolistic competition and uncertain demand. Aggregation over many firms to an industry and the economy as a whole is performed by using Divisia indices. There result, under alternative specifications of price expectations behavior and market structure, a number of simple estimable aggregate price and output adjustment equations that incorporate both cost factors, price expectations and demand variables in them. The appendix gives some partial illustrations of their empirical validity.     

货币政策目标、资产价格波动与最优货币政策

货币政策目标的实现程度是判定货币政策优劣的标准。通过建立中央银行的决策模型,推导出忽略和考虑资产价格的最优货币供应量反应函数,并据此对中国不同货币政策目标下的宏观经济运行进行模拟,以认识货币政策目标对资产价格波动与最优货币政策之间关系的影响,结果表明最优货币政策是否应该对资产价格的波动反应取决于货币政策目标。因此,应充分重视货币政策目标的取向,同时加强对最优货币政策目标确定的研究。     

Who Writes the News? Corporate Press Releases during Merger Negotiations

Firms have an incentive to manage media coverage to influence their stock prices during important corporate events. Using comprehensive data on media coverage and merger negotiations, we find that bidders in stock mergers originate substantially more news stories after the start of merger negotiations, but before the public announcement. This strategy generates a short‐lived run‐up in bidders' stock prices during the period when the stock exchange ratio is determined, which substantially impacts the takeover price. Our results demonstrate that the timing and content of financial media coverage may be biased by firms seeking to manipulate their stock price.     

Recent developments in the theory of inflation and unemployment

The paper examines the theoretical literature of the past decade on the causes of inflation and unemployment. The basic theme is the pervasive impact of sluggish price adjustment on the validity and relevance of recent models. The insulation of real output from anticipated monetary changes, derived in the recent rational expectations literature, loses its validity when prices adjust slowly to changes in demand. The search literature explains only part of unemployment when layoffs rather than wage cuts are the major tool of employment adjustment in recessions. The ‘new-new’ microeconomics of implicit contracts, idiosyncratic exchange, and default penalties is reviewed, as are the implications of sluggish price adjustment for both ‘domestic monetarism’ and for the monetary approach to balance-of-payments theory.