基于VEC模型的保险影响消费的机理分析

本文对中国的消费低迷现象进行了分析,认为预防性储蓄倾向强烈是消费低迷的主要原因,从理论上分析了保险促进消费的作用机制,考察了中国保险业对社会保障体系的贡献度,通过构建向量自回归模型对保险影响消费的作用进行了分析。通过理论和实证的分析,我们发现保险对消费的长期促进作用大于短期的抑制作用,它保障了个人及家庭长期消费的稳定。     

遗产动机下家庭最优保险需求研究

本文将遗产动机引入代际收入转移下的家庭消费—储蓄决策中,讨论了遗产动机下家庭在消费、投资、保险、教育方面的最优支出结构,特别关注家庭对年金和寿险的最优购买比例。研究结果显示,本文的理论结果能够很好地解释家庭在当期消费、风险投资、年金购买、人寿保险购买、教育等方面的支出决策。此外,本文为建立含有保险的宏观经济模型奠定了合理的微观基础,可以进一步研究人寿保险与经济增长的关系。     

基于OLG模型的家庭资产最优分配策略研究

本文在考虑代际收入转移的家庭消费—储蓄决策中,根据消费的特点将家庭消费分为耐用品消费和非耐用品消费,并引入财产保险和人寿保险,讨论家庭在耐用品、非耐用品、保险、风险投资和教育等方面的最优支出决策问题。模拟结果显示,本文模型能够很好拟合家庭实际支出结构。通过敏感性测试发现：风险投资和生存保险之间存在替代关系;教育无法替代且独立于个体的风险态度;耐用品组合的折旧率对耐用品消费具有决定性的影响;个体的风险态度和效用折现率都会在较大程度上影响消费和投资需求。     

跨代连结型长期护理保险最优决策研究北大核心CSSCI

随着我国人口老龄化的不断深化,老龄人口及失能人口的赡养成为亟待解决的经济社会问题。本文基于以家庭为单元的保障模式的理念,以陪护者和年长者连结投保型长期护理保险为切入点,建立了一个包含储蓄、消费、家庭护理、护理保险保额等决策变量的两阶段最优决策模型,考虑陪护者和年长者同时决策和先后决策两种决策方式,并从双方效用最大化的角度出发,得到了二者的最佳投保和护理决策。最后基于中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,测算得到了模型的实证解,并研究保费费率和风险规避程度对决策结果的影响。实证分析结果显示,结合实际数据计算出的最优决策变量具有客观性和可行性,本文考虑的连结投保式创新型长期护理保险能够促使投保人做出理性决策,促进长期护理风险的保障和长期护理保险的发展。     

长期照护保险对农村家庭消费水平的影响——基于CHARLS数据的实证分析

基于预防性储蓄等理论,运用双重差分法,依据中国健康与养老追踪调查（CHARLS）2011—2018年四期面板数据,考量长期照护保险政策对农村家庭消费水平的影响效应。结果显示,长期照护保险使得农村家庭消费水平总体提高了5.2%,这种消费促进效应突出地体现在食品消费、日用品消费、通信消费中,对文化娱乐消费和衣着消费影响不明显。异质性分析显示,非独生子女、收入高以及过去一年内有住院经历的农村家庭受长期照护保险政策的影响程度更大。机制分析表明,预防性储蓄、居民健康和代际经济支持是长期照护保险影响农村家庭消费的重要途径。鉴于此,应通过扩大城乡试点范围、建立多元筹资渠道、构建服务供给体系等方式,推动长期照护保险实现城乡全覆盖。     

商业健康保险、预防性储蓄动机与居民消费支出——理论与经验证据

本文基于2015年、2017年和2019年中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS)对商业健康保险促进居民消费支出及其作用机制的影响效应进行分析。结论表明：(1)家庭商业健康保险保费支出能够显著促进居民家庭总消费支出的提高,且对不同类别消费支出的影响存在明显差异,通过系列内生性处理与相关稳健性检验后该结论仍然成立;(2)机制分析表明,商业健康保险配置主要通过降低家庭预防性储蓄水平,缓解由支出不确定性、主观健康不确定性和客观健康不确定性引发的预防性储蓄动机进而促进居民消费支出;(3)异质性分析发现,商业健康保险配置对居民消费支出的促进作用在不同特征样本家庭中存在明显异质性,在抗风险能力较弱、面临背景风险较高以及所在城市金融可得性较低且受到金融排斥程度较高的家庭中影响更为显著。     

人口老龄化进程中养老保障的消费增进效应——基于CHARLS数据的研究

利用2013年中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据中的8355个家庭数据,在控制家庭人口特征和家庭经济能力的情况下,分别从家庭消费水平和家庭消费结构两方面考察人口老龄化进程中养老保障对家庭消费的影响。结果显示:养老负担会使家庭人均消费支出明显下降,但是医疗保健方面的消费支出占比会显著提高;参加养老保障会显著提高家庭的人均消费支出,尤其是无养老负担家庭会减少对未来养老的预防性储蓄而增加当期消费,养老保障的消费增进效应明显,但是有养老保障家庭的各项消费支出占比则没有显著的提高或下降。这充分说明养老负担是家庭消费水平难以提高的重要因素,而养老保障是刺激人口老龄化进程中消费增长的有力手段。     

低收入家庭现金转移支付的消费刺激作用——来自城乡居民最低生活保障项目的经验证据北大核心CSSCI

城乡居民最低生活保障制度是我国社会保障体系中的重要内容。本文考察对低保家庭的现金转移支付对家庭消费的刺激作用。估计结果显示,对低保家庭的现金转移支付显著促进了家庭总消费。人均低保补助每增加1%,人均家庭总支出提高了0.159%。现金转移支付的消费刺激作用主要体现在家庭消费性支出和福利性支出上。对于消费性支出,对低保家庭的现金转移支付仅仅增加了低保家庭的食物支出,衣物、家用电器、教育、娱乐等支出并没有增加。进一步的分析表明,对低保家庭的消费刺激作用在农村地区体现的更加明显。机制分析表明,低保家庭仅增加了食物支出的原因是由于低收入家庭的高储蓄倾向、社区居民监督以及福利依赖效应。低保家庭获得的现金转移支付每增加1%,家庭储蓄率增加0.350%。本文的研究结论对于完善低保制度、提高低收入居民福利具有借鉴意义。     

我国居民储蓄现状及其结构分析

本文考察了中国居民储蓄现状、结构及其增长原因。结果表明,居民收入增加、投资渠道不畅、预期收入不稳定是居民注重储蓄而不是消费重要原因。由于人均储蓄水平还很低,居民储蓄分布也极不均衡,目前,稳定居民预期、保持较高储蓄率仍然是必要的,一味地强调通过分流储蓄来刺激消费并不妥当。在未来收入、投资收益率和公共服务数量的不确定性仍然很大的情况下,加快推进相关的体制改革才是适宜的政策选择。     

补充医疗保险对居民消费的影响——来自城乡居民大病保险的证据

促进消费对我国稳定经济增长和构建新发展格局至关重要。本文基于中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),利用地级市层面实施城乡居民大病保险的时间差异,运用双重差分法估计了大病医疗保险对居民消费的影响。结果表明,大病保险使家庭人均消费显著增长了约6%。使用了事件分析法、置换检验、改变回归样本和控制变量等一系列检验后,结论仍保持一致,且这一效果在期初住院率高、储蓄率高以及收入较高的家庭中更明显。进一步地,本文检验了大病保险对居民消费的三种可能影响渠道,发现降低家庭对未来医疗支出风险的预期是大病保险促进家庭非医疗消费进而影响家庭总消费的主要渠道,印证了我国居民对高额医疗支出的担忧是影响消费意愿的重要因素。本文研究对于完善多层次医疗保障体系和促进居民消费具有启示意义。     

Lifetime asset allocation with idiosyncratic and systematic mortality risks

This paper considers a lifetime asset allocation problem with both idiosyncratic and systematic mortality risks. The novelty of the paper is to integrate stochastic mortality, stochastic interest rate and stochastic income into a unified framework. An investor, who is a wage earner receiving a stochastic income, can invest in a financial market, consume part of his wealth and purchase life insurance or annuity so as to maximize the expected utility from consumption, terminal wealth and bequest. The problem is solved via the dynamic programming principle and the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation. Analytical solutions to the problem are derived, and numerical examples are provided to illustrate our results. It is shown that idiosyncratic mortality risk has significant impacts on the investor’s investment, consumption, life insurance/annuity purchase and bequest decisions regardless of the length of the decision-making horizon. The systematic mortality risk is largely alleviated by trading the longevity bond. However, its impacts on consumption, purchase of life insurance/annuity and bequest as well as the value function are still pronounced, when the decision-making horizon is sufficiently long.     

乐观预期、保障能力与商业保险购买——来自中国家庭的微观证据

本文基于中国家庭微观调查数据,在考虑商业保险“保障”和“投资”双重属性的前提下,实证研究了乐观预期对家庭商业保险购买的影响。结果发现,乐观预期对家庭商业保险购买存在显著的积极影响,即户主乐观预期程度越高,家庭购买商业保险的意愿越强。进一步区分保障型商业保险和投资型商业保险,发现乐观预期对商业保险购买的积极影响主要来自对投资型商业保险的需求,对保障型商业保险购买的影响则不显著。更重要地,不同风险保障能力下乐观预期对商业保险购买存在异质性影响,家庭储蓄较多、社会保障覆盖较好以及社会资本水平较高的家庭,乐观预期对商业保险购买的积极影响更大。本研究不仅有助于从预期视角理解商业保险市场的“有限参与”之谜,也为提升家庭风险保障和财富增值能力提供了借鉴。     

金融素养与家庭储蓄率——基于理财规划与借贷约束的解释

金融科技的发展使得人们参与金融市场的门槛与成本迅速降低,金融产品也不断丰富,金融市场参与者的异质性增加,金融素养对家庭金融决策的影响越来越明显。本文研究发现:(1)家庭在安排储蓄与消费时,金融素养有显著影响,金融素养与家庭储蓄率呈倒U型关系。(2)理财规划和借贷约束是影响家庭储蓄率上升的两个渠道。(3)金融素养由低逐渐升高时,家庭的理财规划意识增强,通过提高储蓄率来保障资金充足。当金融素养增加到一定程度,理财规划意识优化资产配置的作用增强,抑制消费的作用减弱,同时借贷约束缓解会帮助家庭增加消费。本文的发现有助于厘清家庭储蓄率差异的成因,对提升居民福利,增强金融教育政策的针对性,有积极意义。     

Does prevention as an investment strategy explain the intention to purchase guarantees for unit-linked life insurance?

The present paper examines the relationship between prevention as an investment strategy and the perceptions about unit-linked insurance on the intention to purchase interest rate guarantees for such products. We propose a framework in which the relationship between adopting prevention as an investment strategy, and the intention to purchase interest rate guarantees is moderated by the level of financial literacy of the individual and this interaction is mediated by the perceptions regarding unit-linked insurance. We find support for our conceptual model by testing it on a sample of 1017 financial decision makers in Germany using a moderated mediation analysis. The paper therefore offers insights into the decision-making process of financial consumers in Germany and presents practical implications for designing products for age-old provision.     

How important is intra-household risk sharing for savings and labor supply?

While it is recognized that the family is a risk-sharing institution, little is known about the quantitative effects of this source of insurance on savings and labor supply. In this paper, we present a model where workers (females and males) are subject to idiosyncratic employment risk and where capital markets are incomplete. A household is formed by a female and a male, who decide on consumption, savings and labor supplies. In a calibrated version of our model we find that intra-household risk sharing has its largest impact among wealth-poor households. While the wealth-rich use mainly savings to smooth consumption across unemployment spells, wealth-poor households rely on spousal labor supply. For instance, for low-wealth households, average hours worked by wives of unemployed husbands are 8% higher than those worked by wives of employed husbands. This response in wives’ hours makes up 9% of lost family income. We also study consumption losses upon an unemployment spell, precautionary savings and the crowding out effects of the public unemployment insurance program on the extent of risk sharing within the household.     

保险业发展对居民消费行为研究——基于VEC模型的实证分析

促消费、扩内需是现阶段中国经济面临的主要任务,这意味着要减少居民的未来风险,提升其消费信心。保险业作为防范个体及家庭风险的有效手段,有助于保障消费计划的长期性和稳定性。利用1985年-2009年保险市场和居民消费层面的年度数据,利用向量误差修正模型实证分析了保险业发展对居民消费的现实作用,研究表明：保险业发展对居民消费...     

Saving by buying ahead: stockpiling in response to lump-sum payments

By purchasing larger quantities of goods and saving them for future consumption households are able to reduce transaction costs and acquire goods at a lower price per unit, presuming they can manage the transportation and storage costs. This study uses variations in state income tax refunds over time to estimate consumption responses to lump-sum payments. Households purchase around 20 per cent more of easily stored toilet paper in the months in which tax refunds are issued, but do not increase purchases of perishables such as bread and eggs. In addition to purchasing more goods at a lower per-unit price, households also appear to increase the time until their next purchase, which implies that they are saving goods for consumption over time. These in-kind savings allow people to smooth their consumption over time, much like pecuniary savings. Government payments that provide lump-sum payments can benefit consumers by providing additional liquidity to buy and store goods at a lower cost.     

Wealth, Income, and Optimal Insurance

This article considers the decision to purchase insurance against possible losses of a property or wealth. The decision involves a standard economic trade‐off between the benefit of protection against loss and the cost of insurance premium. The premium is paid out of the income and decreases the consumption of other goods and services, rather than out of wealth and decreases the property or wealth. The demand for insurance depends mainly on the income and preferences. As a result, unlike in the standard model, a fair premium is neither necessary nor sufficient for the optimality of full coverage insurance. Rather, the individuals with higher incomes purchase full coverage insurance even at unfair prices of insurance while the individuals with lower income purchase partial coverage insurance at a fair price.     

The psychological effects on tariff choices for car insurance

Insurance customers increasingly choose between conventional flat-rate car insurance tariffs and innovative usage-based car insurance tariffs such as a pay-per-mile tariff. Usage-based car insurance tariffs require traffic telematics. In this paper, we analyze the decision-making behavior of insurance customers concerning tariff choices as well as the psychological effects. In other service areas, it can be observed that customers often prefer a flat-rate tariff even if their billing rate would be lower on a pay-per-use tariff for a given amount of usage. In study?1, we show that the purchase intention of car insurance tariffs is influenced by psychological effects as well as the customer’s personal experience with the insurance provider and that it is higher for a flat-rate car insurance tariff compared to a pay-per-mile tariff. Customers who have had positive experiences with an insurance provider induce a higher purchase intention for car insurance than customers who have had no experience with an insurance provider. In study?2, we show that the probability of choosing a flat-rate car insurance tariff is higher with increasing monthly kilometers.