Domestic and foreign disturbances in an optimizing model of exchange-rate determination

This paper analyzes the effects of various disturbances of domestic and foreign origin in a small open economy under imperfect capital mobility in which the behavioral relationships are divided from optimization by the private sector. In this model the domestic economy jumps instantaneously to its new equilibrium following a change in either the domestic monetary growth rate or domestic fiscal policy. In response to a disturbance in either the foreign interest rate or inflation rate, the economy undergoes an initial partial jump towards its new equilibrium, which it thereafter approaches gradually. The implications of these results for exchange-rate adjustments and the insulation properties of flexible exchange rates are discussed.     

Tax reform and external balance

This paper examines the effect of a transformation from capital taxation to consumption in an open economy. With the residential capital tax rate being endogenous, an increase in the domestic consumption tax rate decreases the interest rate, increases capital accumulation, and increases the domestic country's net foreign asset holdings and trade surplus. With the territorial capital tax rate being endogenous, an increase in the domestic consumption tax rate may either increase or decrease the domestic country's interest rate, net foreign asset holdings and trade surplus, depending on the interest elasticity of capital demand.     

构建适应我国循环经济发展的金融支持体系

建立和完善有效的金融支持体系,才能全方位地满足循环经济产业化的金融需求.比较国内外循环经济投融资发展,改革发展循环经济的投融资体系、组建循环经济产业投资基金;、拓宽循环经济项目融资渠道;推进与循环经济相关的金融资源创新,实现循环经济和金融创新的双赢.     

The impact of foreign stock markets on macroeconomic dynamics in open economies: A structural estimation

With the increased international financial integration in recent years, bilateral financial linkages between countries may have a growing influence on their real economies. This paper employs a structural two-country New Keynesian model, which incorporates a cross-border wealth channel, to estimate the effect that foreign stock market fluctuations may have on macroeconomic variables in open economy countries.The model is estimated using Bayesian methods on a sample of open economies that can potentially be affected by changes in a larger foreign stock market: Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Ireland, Austria, and the Netherlands. The estimation allows for deviations from rational expectations and for learning by economic agents.The empirical results indicate important cross-country wealth effects for Ireland and Austria, from fluctuations in the U.S. and U.K. and in the U.S. and German stock markets, respectively; the wealth effect is largest in Ireland. The data favor, instead, specifications with no significant wealth effect for the remaining countries. Foreign stock price fluctuations, however, still play a role by affecting domestic expectations about future output gaps in all countries in the sample.     

Resource rents; when to spend and how to save

Countries with substantial revenues from renewable resources face a complex range of revenue management issues. What is the optimal time profile of consumption from the revenue, and how much should be saved? Should saving be invested in foreign funds or in the domestic economy? How does government policy influence the private sector, where sustainable growth in the domestic economy must ultimately be generated? This paper develops the issues in a simple two-period model, and argues that analysis must go well beyond the simple permanent income approach sometimes recommended.     

开放经济下资金供求非均衡与中国对外直接投资

当前中国出现了相对过剩的国内大规模储蓄和外资大量流进并存的现象；国际收支表现为双顺差和巨额外汇储备；与此同时，国内资金也在大规模的外流，出现了资本流动怪圈。这种资金供求非均衡状态有许多负面影响。而引进外资是现代化建设所必须的，因此，进行对外直接投资是一种较好的选择。     

需求贸易理论与我国绿色贸易战略

从需求角度考查国际贸易理论，需求模式的变动会通过产业结构调整来影响贸易模式的发展和变化，因此，贸易格局的最终动因要到需求结构中去找。一国的竞争优势取决于市场规模，更取决于市场特征，内需在竞争优势中发挥了重要作用。目前，我国的外贸结构存在非持续性的弊端，实施绿色贸易战略，应该在注重外需因素的同时，充分发挥内需在培育绿色竞争优势方面的作用。     

工业机器人应用促进了“两业融合”发展吗?——来自中国制造企业投入服务化的证据

本文利用微观企业数据和区分中国贸易方式的投入产出表,测算了高度细化的企业投入服务化指标,进而考察了工业机器人应用对制造业和服务业“两业融合”的影响。结果表明,工业机器人应用显著促进了中国制造企业的服务增加值率,然而这一促进效应更多是通过推动企业使用国外服务、抑制企业使用国内服务实现的。异质性分析显示,工业机器人应用对“两业融合”的影响主要集中在加工贸易企业、东部地区企业、外资和港澳台企业、劳动密集型和技术密集型企业。从作用机制看,工业机器人应用对“两业融合”的影响主要通过促进技术创新、延长生产链条和提高生产效率来实现,而人力资本投资则存在一定的负向替代作用。最后,本文还讨论了工业机器人应用影响“两业融合”中的“要素替代效应”和“行业扩散效应”。本文结论表明,工业机器人应用对“两业融合”的影响并非是“局部性”的,有必要统筹协调相关政策和制度,更好地促进现代产业体系的加快构建和中国经济的高质量发展。     

我国现行税制对产业链延伸的影响及对策

产业链延伸能够优化我国的产品结构和经济结构,带动区域经济乃至全国经济的一体化发展,但我国现行税制存在的税权过度集中、地方税规模过小、内外资企业税制不统一及税收征管制度中存在的地方保护主义等因素不利于产业链的延伸。因此,基于延伸我国产业链的客观要求,应通过制度的设计和创新来进一步完善我国的税收制度。     

金融危机后我国物价水平变动与货币供应关系研究——基于外汇储备变动视角

2010年以来,我国CPI走势屡创新高,一方面这与国际大宗商品价格持续走高、自然灾害频繁发生导致的粮食减产有关,另一方面也与国外巨额流动性投放以及我国适度宽松货币政策下经济体内流动性充裕有关。本文以外汇储备变动为切入点,对国际金融危机后我国外汇储备变动和物价走势进行分析,考察发达国家量化宽松政策对我国通货膨胀产生的影响。