疫情对企业融资的影响研究--来自银团贷款市场的经验证据

新冠肺炎疫情在全球蔓延,引发市场对企业经营、融资等问题的担忧。为进一步做好金融支持疫情防控工作、维护疫情期间金融市场稳定,本文通过研究历史视角下疫情对企业融资的影响机制,提出疫情防控期间金融支持相关的政策建议。本文利用1990-2018年汤森路透Dealscan数据库公布的企业银团贷款数据和手工收集全球重大疫情数据,实证研究了疫情对企业银团贷款的影响机制。研究发现:疫情发生后,企业银团贷款利率和贷款额度均显著增加,而银团贷款期限没有表现出显著变化。在考虑不同期限疫情观测时间窗和政策利率的滞后性影响等因素后,该结论依然成立。疫情对企业银团贷款的影响渠道包括避险情绪和融资流动性等。进一步研究发现,疫情期间政策利率调控效果有限,不同国家和地区的企业融资受疫情的影响存在差异。基于此,本文认为金融监管部门应进一步加大对企业信贷利率支持力度,完善货币政策有效性评估及动态调整机制,及时疏通货币政策传导,约谈恶意抬高信贷利率的金融机构,同时强化与财政、产业等政策的协调机制,合力支持疫情防控,维护经济金融稳定。     

国外私募股权二级市场发展对我国的启示

PE二级市场在国外已有近30年的发展历史,其对于一国健康稳定多层次金融环境的建设贡献良多。近年来我国PE初级市场获得了长足发展,由此催生了建设PE二级市场的需求。我们需要在借鉴国外PE二级市场发展经验的同时结合国情寻找中国的PE二级市场之路。营造宽松的法律政策环境、鼓励多主体参与以及加快二级市场的理论与实际相结合的研究是我国PE二级市场发展初期可以考虑的三类政策措施。     

The Monitoring Incentive of Transactional and Relationship Lenders: Evidence from the Syndicated Loan Market

We identify a group of lenders specializing in syndicating tradable loans (referred to as transactional lenders [TLs]). We show that borrowers borrowing from TLs experience worse operating performance and more severe credit quality deterioration after loan origination compared to those borrowing from relationship lenders. This difference in the postloan issue performance remains robust after controlling for the potential self‐selection of the lender type, or using percentage of traded loans out of all syndicated loans to capture lenders’ propensity for syndicating tradable loans. Our results also remains qualitatively the same after we drop various types of risky loans.     

我国银行间债券市场效率研究

本文通过对关键期限利率债进行Delay系数分析比较,来观察银行间债券市场在2013年监管综合治理前后的市场效率状况及变化,从而检验监管综合治理政策的有效性。研究显示,经过两年的综合治理,银行间债券市场效率已显著改善,通过健全完善债券市场交易机制,可以减少市场摩擦,提升市场效率。     

市场时机与中国上市公司投资行为——基于股权融资渠道的实证检验

文章选取中国A股市场2004-2009年面板数据,实证检验了中国市场时机影响公司投资的股权融资渠道,并深入分析了市场时机影响上市公司投资的机理过程及经济后果。结果表明,中国资本市场存在显著市场时机影响公司投资的股权融资渠道,通过分析市场时机对公司投资—现金流敏感度的影响,发现股权融资渠道在缓解融资约束公司投资不足的同时也造成了非融资约束公司的过度投资。最后,实证检验表明,市场时机对上市公司投资效率的影响显著为负。     

商业银行视角下的私募股权融资研究

中国是一个私募股权融资正在勃兴的巨大市场,私募股权融资不仅有利于我国产业结构的调整、行业的整合,而且可以促进我国多层次资本市场的发展。商业银行特别是大型商业银行为私募股权融资提供服务具备多种优势。商业银行的介入既推动了私募股权融资的发展,也拓展了自身的业务领域,增加了中间业务收入。虽然私募基金和商业银行选择项目都采用定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,但是它们选择项目的方法论是不同的,前者一般以静止的观点看待企业,而后者则用发展的眼光选择企业,它们选择项目的具体标准存在较大区别。     

短期融资券市场效率研究——基于价差分解的视角

在完全有效市场条件下,信用风险是反映信用类债券特征的最基本信息,也是决定价差的关键因素。本文通过对中国信用类债券中短期融资券的价差分解发现,虽然信用风险显著影响短期融资券定价,但市场风险才是影响其价差的最主要因素。此外,市场流动性不足降低了市场运行效率,导致流动性溢价总体为负。上述研究结果表明我国短期融资券市场化的定价机制虽已初步形成,但市场效率总体仍然偏低。     

Market Discipline and the Use of Stock Market Data to Predict Bank Financial Distress

We assess the extent to which stock market information can be used to estimate leading indicators of bank financial distress. We specify a logit early warning model, designed for European banks, which tests if market based indicators add predictive value to models relying on accounting data. We also study the robustness of the link between market information and financial downgrading in the light of the safety net and asymmetric information hypotheses. Some of our results support the use of market-related indicators. Other results show that the accuracy of the predictive power depends on the extent to which bank liabilities are market traded.      

Sectoral Responses of the Chinese Stock Market to International Oil Shocks

We investigate the relationship between international oil shocks and the sectoral dynamics of the Chinese stock market. Our empirical results show that the behavior and response to international oil shocks by the Chinese stock market differ significantly from the behavior and responses of the European stock market as documented in the literature. In China, only the mining industry has a strong and consistent link with international oil shocks when systematic risk factors are controlled. There is no clear evidence of asymmetries in China's sectoral stock-oil relationship.     

桂林银行市场定位比较优势与差异化发展策略探析

本文通过对桂林银行的市场定位、比较优势及差异化发展策略进行深入调研剖析,努力探索其在新形势下,如何实现经营模式转型和增长方式的转变,力争总结出城商行发展的普适性规律,并为行业发展提供相应的思路参考.     

银行在公司控制权市场中的作用研究——来自中国上市公司的证据

本文以我国上市公司中26例最为接近市场收购行为的要约收购作为样本,实证检验了我国银行贷款强度对公司成为收购目标的可能性和收购成功率的影响。研究发现,银行贷款强度与公司成为收购目标的可能性和收购成功率之间呈显著负相关关系。这一结果的政策含义在于,随着我国资本市场的完善,银行可以通过控制权市场加强对公司的治理。     

The Competitive Impact of Commercial Bank Underwriting on the Market for Municipal Revenue Bonds

This paper examines the impact of commercial bank entry in the market for municipal revenue bonds. We show that issues underwritten by commercial banks have lower underwriter spreads but not lower yields relative to issues underwritten by nonbank investment firms. In particular, this is more significant for non-investment-grade bonds underwritten by commercial banks. Our results are consistent with the interpretation that bank entry has resulted in increased competition in the municipal revenue bond market and that the lower yields observed for bank-underwritten commercial bonds may be due to banks having private information. Overall, our results suggest that policy changes leading to the relaxation of restrictive provisions concerning bank underwriting of municipal revenue bonds have had beneficial effects.     

利率对我国股市的影响——基于上证综指和深圳成指的实证研究

从理论和实证两方面研究全国银行间同业拆借利率对上证综指和深圳成指的影响,结果表明,利率对沪深两市的负相关变动趋势影响不够显著,原因在于我国利率还没有完全市场化、股票市场效率不高、股票市场投机氛围大于投资氛围。为促进我国股市的健康发展,政府要推进利率市场化改革,减少对人民币的管制,使人民币汇率真正市场化,央行应适时把市场利率作为我国货币政策中介目标,从而有助于实现货币政策的最终目标。     

The Evolution of Market Efficiency: 103 Years Daily Data of the Dow

Autocorrelation in daily returns of the Dow 30 Index fluctuates significantly over time and reveals a declining trend after World War II. The relation between autocorrelation and volatility is negative and nonlinear. The relation between autocorrelation and volume is also negative and nonlinear. Returns exhibit positive autocorrelation during years with higher autocorrelation, and negative autocorrelation during years with lower autocorrelation. Positive autocorrelation appears more frequently during periods of low volatility, while negative autocorrelation appears more frequently during periods of high volatility. Current period's autocorrelation is related to previous period's autocorrelation and to both the previous and the current period's volatility and rate of return, which implies that investors incorporate previous period's pattern of market behavior into their trading strategy.     

我国银行业市场势力与行业效率关系的实证研究

本文研究了我国银行业市场势力及其与行业效率之间的关系,分别以我国银行业的成本效率、规模效率和技术效率为因变量,以市场势力、银行规模、资产配置能力、产权结构、创新程度和稳定性为自变量,构建了三个效率影响因素模型,对市场势力与行业成本效率、规模效率和技术效率的关系进行了分析。结果发现,在总体水平上,市场势力与成本效率、技术效率之间存在显著的负影响,对规模效率的影响不显著。     

商业银行高管薪酬改革适应新常态特征的路径研究

薪酬体系是否科学合理影响到经营管理者的积极性。我国商业银行薪酬体系建立在外部经济环境和内部经营规律的基础上。以往高经济增长的环境下,商业银行经营效益大幅度提升,高管薪酬也十分高企。但自金融危机发生以来,中国经济出现了增幅下降、结构急需调整等“新常态”特征,这对商业银行经营管理特别是薪酬体系设计也提出了新的要求。与此同时,国有企业整体改革的推进,又为商业银行高管薪酬改革提供了方向指引。目前,商业银行的薪酬体系改革必须充分考虑经济新常态的特征、国有企业改革对商业银行薪酬改革的影响,结合金融企业发展规律,坚持遵循价值规律原则,加速推进限制性股权制、股票期权制、绩效回收制、加大延期支付力度、构建社会比价指导与活跃职业经理人市场、完善商业银行治理机制等是新常态背景下商业银行高管薪酬改革的基本策略。     

论中国政府干预股票市场的法律体系构建

当下,我国政府在干预股票市场的过程中起到积极作用的同时,其不可避免的缺陷也凸现出来,如何在法律的框架下规制政府行为,克服其缺陷将对我国股票市场平稳健康的发展起到举足轻重的作用.本文通过在宏观层面对政府权力干预股票市场的宏现法律体系的设计,在微观层面完善信息披露制度和操作层面制度实施保障机制的构建,以避免中国政府干预股票市场的缺陷,以保障股票市场高效、安全、健康和稳定地发展.     

The Sensitivity of the Loss Given Default Rate to Systematic Risk: New Empirical Evidence on Bank Loans

We verify the existence of a relation between loss given default rate (LGDR) and macroeconomic conditions by examining 11,649 bank loans concerning the Italian market. Using both the univariate and multivariate analyses, we pinpoint diverse macroeconomic explanatory variables for LGDR on loans to households and SMEs. For households, LGDR is more sensitive to the default-to-loan ratio, the unemployment rate, and household consumption. For SMEs, LGDR is influenced by the total number of employed people and the GDP growth rate. These findings corroborate the Basel Committee’s provision that LGDR quantification process must identify distinct downturn conditions for each supervisory asset class.

The horse has bolted: revisiting the market reaction to going concern modifications of audit reports

This paper examines what value is added by an audit report through an investigation of the information content for first‐time going concern modifications (GCMs). Consistent with prior research, we find no evidence of a short‐term market reaction to the public announcement of a first‐time GCM. We document a significant adverse medium‐term market reaction in the 12 months prior to a first‐time GCM announcement, but find no evidence of a persistent market underreaction in the 12 months following the announcement. These results are consistent with an audit opinion fulfilling an attestation function and confirming the deteriorating financial condition of a firm.     

An Examination of the Equity Market Response to The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act Across Commercial Banking, Investment Banking, and Insurance Firms

Abstract:  This paper examines the wealth effects of the events surrounding the passage of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999 and changes in systematic risk from the pre-Act period to the post-Act period for commercial banks, investment banks, and insurance firms. The results suggest that investment banks and insurance firms are better positioned to exploit the benefits of product-line diversification opportunities allowed by the legislation compared to commercial banks that experience no significant market reaction. Further evidence indicates a significant risk shift and overall reduction in riskiness for the financial sectors under consideration around the event period.