交叉上市的资本成本效应之实证研究

交叉上市的资本成本效应是从公司理财角度研究交叉上市的核心领域。本文以截止2008年6月30日在内地、纽约与香港交叉上市的11家中国公司为样本,分别采用CAPM和Gordon模型估算分析公司在内地、纽约和香港三个市场的资本成本,结果表明:(1)在A股市场CAPM模型下的资本成本要高于Gordon模型下的资本成本,而在N股市场和H股市场,结果相反;(2)采用CAPM模型与Gordon模型均证明公司在A股市场的资本成本(β系数)低于其在N股和H股市场的资本成本。A股市场较低的资本成本反映出我国股票市场对投资者利益保护不足,我国股票市场亟需加强对投资者利益的保护。     

SOURCING EQUITY INTERNATIONALLY WITH DEPOSITARY RECEIPT OFFERINGS: TWO EXCEPTIONS THAT PROVE THE RULE

Corporations around the world are now aggressively raising equity capital in the U.S. by crosslisting their shares on major U.S. stock exchanges in the form of depositary receipts (DRs). After describing the process by which companies create DR programs to crosslist their shares in the U.S., this article surveys the existing empirical evidence on the effects of such cross-listings on the companies' cost of capital, global risk exposures, and liquidity.
Among the most notable findings, the article reports that significant positive share price reactions, reductions in risk measures, and increases in liquidity are observed following crossborder listings, though mainly in the case of non-U.S. companies listing for the first time in the U.S. To illustrate these capital-market effects, the article recounts in some detail two recent cases of international capital-raising facilitated by DR offerings: Deutsche Telekom and China's Huaneng Power International.     

Financial restatements by Canadian firms cross-listed and not cross-listed in the U.S.

Canadian financial restatements announced during 1997–2006 lower market quality and signal to market participants that expected future cash flows and their uncertainty are diminished and increased, respectively. Abnormal returns are related to downward revisions in consensus earnings forecasts, and become more negative for U.S. cross-listings, and for revenue recognition and company-initiated restatements. Total residual volatility, its information-based permanent component and the adverse selection spread component increase following such announcements. Relative spreads and a spread-depth market-quality index increase following such announcements and are lower for U.S. cross-listings. Relative spreads (unlike the market-quality index) remain higher post-announcement, and are lower post-Sarbanes-Oxley Act.     

Controlling shareholders and market timing: Evidence from cross-listing events

We find partial support for a permanent increase in firm value following U.S. cross-listings. Cross-listed firms with capital-raising intentions on U.S. exchanges and firms cross-listing after the Sarbanes-Oxley Act exhibit an increase in firm value. Yet, investors are worse off in the long run when owning insider-controlled cross-listings. Compared to non-insider-owned cross-listings, insider-owned firms have a greater rise in value around the cross-listing year but also a larger decline in the post-cross-listing years. In fact, insider-owned firms lose value by the fifth year, compared with their value before cross-listing. Lastly, we show that liquidity and visibility enhance the value of cross-listings.     

The market reaction to cross-listings: Does the destination market matter?

This paper examines (i) whether market reactions to cross-listings differ across destination markets and (ii) to what extent the following explanations for value creation around cross-listings can account for differences in market reactions across cross-listings on various destination markets: overcoming market segmentation, increased market liquidity, improved information disclosure, and better investor protection (“bonding”). We analyze 526 cross-listings from 44 different countries on eight major stock exchanges and document significant announcement returns of 1.3% on average for cross-listings on US exchanges, 1.1% on London Stock Exchange, 0.6% on exchanges in continental Europe, and 0.5% (not significant) on Tokyo Stock Exchange. We find evidence consistent with improved disclosure and bonding creating value for cross-listings on US exchanges, while overcoming segmentation and bonding are associated with higher announcement returns on the London Stock Exchange. The evidence is mixed for continental European exchanges and for Tokyo. Our results highlight the role of the destination market in value creation around cross-listings.     

Impact of Market Expectations on the U.S. Interest Rate Lift-Off in ASEAN-5 Financial System

During 2015–2016, the market has lowered its expectations on the pace and magnitude of U.S. interest rate lift-off, which should have reduced capital outflow and supported the ASEAN-5 financial markets. Yet, the ASEAN-5 financial markets have recorded mixed fortunes, possibly due to spikes in global risk (proxied by CBOE VIX index). Against the contrasting background of higher global risk and gradual interest rate lift-off, this paper investigates the impact of market expectations on U.S. interest rate on the ASEAN-5 financial markets. This paper concludes that both global risk and market expectations on interest rate lift-off affect the ASEAN-5 financial markets, whereby the negative effect of higher global risk dominates the positive effect of market expectations of gradual interest rate lift-off in the ASEAN-5 currencies and equity markets. However, it is the reverse in the ASEAN-5 sovereign bonds as the positive impact of market expectations of more gradual interest rate lift-off dominates the negative effect of higher global risk.

     

The cost of capital: U.S.-based multinational corporations versus U.S. domestic corporations

Using firm-level panel data, this paper examines whether the cost of capital (COC) differs significantly between U.S.-based multinational corporations (MNCs) and U.S. domestic corporations (DCs). The results suggest that U.S.-based MNCs have higher COC than U.S. DCs and that industry importantly influences COC. The study also finds that there is a significant time effect on COC, and the time effect follows the trend of the U.S. economic growth rate. Using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo approach, we estimate jointly cost of equity, cost of debt, and capital structure, and find that the higher cost of capital for MNCs is due mainly to their higher cost of equity and greater use of equity financing; the cost of debt financing does not differ significantly for MNCs versus DCs.     

Cross-Border Listings and Price Discovery: Evidence from U.S.-Listed Canadian Stocks

We examine the contribution of cross-listings to price discovery for a sample of Canadian stocks listed on both the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE) and a U.S. exchange. We find that prices on the TSE and U.S. exchange are cointegrated and mutually adjusting. The U.S. share of price discovery ranges from 0.2 percent to 98.2 percent, with an average of 38.1 percent. The U.S. share is directly related to the U.S. share of trading and to the ratio of proportions of informative trades on the U.S. exchange and the TSE, and inversely related to the ratio of bid-ask spreads.     

Foreign issuers in the U.S. PIPE market

We document that the use of private investment in public equity (PIPE) by foreign firms listed on U.S. exchanges is growing even faster than its use by U.S. firms. On average, foreign firm PIPE stock deals represent a similar proportion of the firm's market capitalization to U.S. firm PIPEs, but suffer less of a share price discount than U.S. firm PIPE issuances, a relation that is robust to consideration of exchange, deal size, share turnover and return volatility. We document that hedge funds are only small investors in foreign firm PIPEs issued in the U.S., which tend to be purchased by pensions, government funds and corporations. PIPE, in combination with the reverse merger method of going public, provides a cost-effective means for foreign firms to raise capital in the U.S. capital market.     

Capital account reform and short- and long-run stock price leadership

This paper studies the effect of capital account liberalization policies on the price discovery of cross-listings in Chinese stocks. We construct a non-linear causality framework that decomposes short- and long-run dimensions of price leadership. Our analysis shows that capital account liberalization has had a profound effect on long-run A- and H-price leadership traits. Specifically, increased inward capital movement from Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors strengthens long-term leadership in the mainland A-market. Similarly, increased capital outflow from the Chinese mainland galvanizes long-term price discovery processes in the Hong Kong H-market. We thus offer strong evidence that capital account liberalization promotes stock market efficiency in the long-run. The present study's empirical account also suggests that such capital flows inhibit short-term lead-lag effects.     

Equity cross-listings in the U.S. and the price of debt

Using a large panel from 46 countries over 20 years, we find that non-U.S. firms issue corporate bonds more frequently and at lower offering yields following an equity cross-listing on a U.S. exchange. Firms issue more bonds through public offerings instead of private placements and in foreign markets rather than at home, in both cases at significantly lower yields. Moreover, the debt-related benefits are concentrated among firms domiciled in countries with less private benefits of control, efficient debt enforcement, and developed bond markets, suggesting that equity cross-listings cannot completely offset the impact of weak home country institutions. The results support the notion that the monitoring, transparency, and visibility benefits brought about by equity cross-listings on U.S. exchanges are valuable to bond investors.     

EXTERNAL GOVERNANCE AND THE COST OF EQUITY FINANCING

We examine whether and how competitive pressure in the product market influences the cost of equity capital. Using a large panel of U.S. public firms, we find that intensification of product market competition results in lower equity financing costs. Our results are statistically significant and economically sizable. In line with the view of the disciplinary role of product market competition, we show that corporate governance, payout policy, and investment policy are channels through which competitive pressure influences the cost of equity capital.     

美国货币政策溢出效应、中国资产价格波动与资本账户管理

本文以2016年美国加息事件为背景,研究美国货币政策对中国资本流动、资产价格和宏观经济的影响。基于小国开放动态随机一般均衡模型,本文梳理了美国货币政策溢出效应的具体传导渠道,发现国外利率升高后,资本流动具有外部性,导致国内资产价格下跌,其通过金融加速器进一步使国内投资下降、资产价格进一步下跌,从而使得国内资产预期回报进一步下降,加剧资本外流。基于政策和福利分析,本文发现资本账户管理可以有效缓解国外利率冲击对经济波动的影响,同时会提高货币政策的独立性,但也会影响国民财富的最优配置。因此,最优的资本账户管理应同时兼顾宏观审慎和效率两个方面。     

Agency Cost,Dividend Policy and Growth: The Special Case of REITs

Dividend distribution enhances information transmission, and mitigates agency conflicts by restricting managers’ access to free cash flow, and exposing firms to the scrutiny and monitoring by market participants when raising external capital. The reduction in agency costs and improvement in information dissemination reduce the cost of funds, and investment at more competitive cost of capital enhances firm value. For REITs, because of the mandated high dividend distribution, growth depends on the availability of external capital at competitive rates, such that mitigation of agency costs is critical to sustain growth. We examine the relation between dividends and growth with a sample of U.S. equity REITs. Our data reveal a significantly positive relation between externally financed growth and dividend payments. The relation is stronger among REITs with more growth opportunities, and REITs that issue new equity and debt. We interpret this evidence as consistent with the notion that by reducing agency costs and facilitating capital raising, dividends enhance growth.     

Size and Value Effects in the Visegrad Countries

This paper has two main objectives. The first is to test for the presence of size and book-to-market value effects in the Visegrad countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia). Such effects have been found in the U.S. stock market and in many other developed stock markets. The authors demonstrate that sizeand value do explain the expected return/cost of capital in eastern Europe. From this result they proceed by constructing regional size and book-to-market portfolios for a combined Visegrad market. Returns on these portfolios serve as factors in addition to the market portfolio. The second objective is constructing a model for the cost of capital. The regional three-factor model outperforms country-specific versions of the model, and it can be estimated for a more current sample in Prague, Budapest, Warsaw, and Bratislava. Therefore, it is a plausible model for the cost of capital in this region, and it is used to calculate the cost of capital for the following industries: banks; capital goods; food, beverage, and tobacco; materials; and utilities.     

Capital Controls and the International Transmission of U.S. Money Shocks

We assess whether capital controls effectively insulate countries from U.S. monetary shocks, examining a large range of country experiences in a unified estimation framework. We estimate the effect of identified U.S. monetary shocks on the exchange rate and foreign country interest rates, and test whether countries with less open capital accounts exhibit systematically smaller responses. We find essentially no evidence of this. Other country factors such as the exchange rate regime or degree of dollarization explain more of the cross-country differences in responses. The significant differences in responses we do find are more pronounced at short horizons.     

Investor communication and the benefits of cross-listing

While studies have sought to explain the benefits of cross-listing, little attention has been paid to the role of communication between managers and investors during this process. In this paper, I investigate whether managers change communication policies around U.S. cross-listings. I document significant increases in communication when firms cross-list. I then test whether these investor communication practices around cross-listing are associated with capital market benefits. I find that cross-listed firms that communicate more with investors experience greater and longer lasting cross-listing benefits. Lastly, I explore two potential reasons that may lead managers to choose higher levels of communication: to support an increase in investor recognition and to facilitate monitoring. I find results consistent with communication increasing visibility and scrutiny, suggesting that communication functions as a supporting tool to achieve managers’ cross-listing goals.     

Return on capital analysis: U.S.-based multinational corporations versus U.S. domestic corporations

We study the difference between U.S.-based multinational corporations (MNCs) and U.S. domestic corporations (DCs) in terms of management efficiency with return on capital as the measure of management efficiency. We use a fixed effect model to account for heterogeneity and/or the time-specific effect and find that MNCs have lower management efficiency than DCs, which holds after we control for the effects of firm size, GDP growth rate, and growth opportunity on management efficiency. One reason for the low efficiency is the MNCs’ inability to manage their assets well relative to DCs. We also find that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between return on capital and degree of internationalization, which implies an optimal degree of internationalization. Our result does not confirm the recently proposed three-stage model.     

Central bank announcements of asset purchases and the impact on global financial and commodity markets

We present evidence on the effects of large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England since 2008. We show that announcements about these purchases led to lower long-term interest rates and depreciations of the U.S. dollar and the British pound on announcement days, while commodity prices generally declined despite this more stimulative financial environment. We suggest that LSAP announcements likely involved signaling effects about future growth that led investors to downgrade their U.S. growth forecasts lowering long-term US yields, depreciating the value of the U.S. dollar, and triggering a decline in commodity prices. Moreover, our analysis illustrates the importance of controlling for market expectations when assessing these effects. We find that positive U.S. monetary surprises led to declines in commodity prices, even as long-term interest rates fell and the U.S. dollar depreciated. In contrast, on days of negative U.S. monetary surprises, i.e. when markets evidently believed that monetary policy was less stimulatory than expected, long-term yields, the value of the dollar, and commodity prices all tended to increase.     

The U.S. current account deficit and the expected share of world output

We investigate the possibility that the large current account deficits of the U.S. are the outcome of optimizing behavior. We develop a simple long-run world equilibrium model in which the current account is determined by the expected discounted present value of its future share of world GDP relative to its current share of world GDP. The model suggests that under some reasonable assumptions about future U.S. GDP growth relative to the rest of the advanced countries—more modest than the growth over the past 20 years—the current account deficit is near optimal levels. We then explore the implications for the real exchange rate. Under some plausible assumptions, the model implies little change in the real exchange rate over the adjustment path, though the conclusion is sensitive to assumptions about tastes and technology. Then we turn to empirical evidence. A test of current account sustainability suggests that the U.S. is not keeping on a long-run sustainable path. A direct test of our model finds that the dynamics of the U.S. current account—the increasing deficits over the past decade—are difficult to explain under a particular statistical model (Markov-switching) of expectations of future U.S. growth. But, if we use survey data on forecasted GDP growth in the G-7, our very simple model appears to explain the evolution of the U.S. current account remarkably well. We conclude that expectations of robust performance of the U.S. economy relative to the rest of the advanced countries is a contender—though not the only legitimate contender—for explaining the U.S. current account deficit.