Evaluation of linear asset pricing models by implied portfolio performance

We present a theoretical perspective that motivates the use of the Generalized Least Squares R-Square, prominently advocated by Lewellen et al. [Lewellen, J., Nagel, S., Shanken, J., forthcoming. A skeptical appraisal of asset-pricing tests. Journal of Financial Economics], as an evaluation measure for multivariate linear asset pricing models. Adapting results from Shanken [Shanken, J., 1985. Multivariate tests of the zero-beta CAPM. Journal of Financial Economics 14, 327–348] and Kandel and Stambaugh [Kandel, S., Stambaugh, R.F., 1995. Portfolio inefficiency and the cross-section of expected returns. Journal of Finance 50, 157–184], we provide various interpretations and a graphical account in mean-variance space of this measure, facilitating a better understanding of its properties. We furthermore relate it to another leading evaluation metric, the HJ-distance of Hansen and Jagannathan [Hansen, L.P., Jagannathan, R., 1997. Assessing specification errors in stochastic discount factor models. Journal of Finance 52, 557–590]. Additionally, we present a comparison between these evaluation measures using mean-variance mathematics in risk-return space, and we provide a simple formula for calculating both model evaluation measures that involves only the parameters of the mean-variance asset and factor frontiers.     

Limited participation and the closed-end fund discount

In this paper, we present economic forces that affect the closed-end fund share price using a simple two-period model with limited participation. We characterize three economic forces: management fee, principal-agent problem effect and diversification benefit effect. The role of the management fee is consistent with recent studies by Ross [Ross S., 2002. Neoclassical finance, alternative finance and the closed end fund puzzle. European Financial Management 8, 129–137, Ross, S., 2002. A neoclassical look at behavioral finance: closed end funds. The Princeton lectures in finance III] and findings of various empirical studies [e.g., Kumar, R., Noronha, G.M., 1992. A re-examination of the relationship between closed-end fund discounts and expenses. Journal of Financial Research 15(2) Summer, 139–147; Russel, P.S., 2005. Closed-end fund pricing: The puzzle, the explanations, and some new evidence, Journal of Business and Economic Studies 11(1), 34–49; Gemmill, G., Thomas, D.C., 2002. Noise trading, costly arbitrage, and asset prices: Evidence from closed end funds. Journal of Finance 57(6), 2571–2594]. The model’s principal-agent problem effect is consistent with empirical findings by Brickley et al. [Brickley, James, Steven Manaster, Schallheim, James, 1991. The tax-timing option and the discounts on closed-end investment companies. Journal of Business 64, 287–312] of positive relation between the fund discount and the average variance of the constituent assets in the fund portfolio. In addition, it provides a theoretical framework for empirical studies, which examine the role of agency costs [Barclay, Michael J., Clifford G. Holderness, Jeffrey Pontiff, 1993. Private benefits from block ownership and discounts on closed-end funds. Journal of Financial Economics 33, 263–291] and compensation contracts [Coles, J., Suay, J., Woodbury, D., 2000. Fund advisor compensation in closed-end funds. Journal of Finance 55 (3), 1385–1414; Deli, Daniel N., 2002. Mutual fund advisory contracts: An empirical Investigation. Journal of Finance 57(1), 109–133] on the behavior of fund managers and fund discounts. The model’s diversification benefit effect supports the result in [Bonser-Neal C., Brauer,G., Neal, R.., Wheatley, S., 1990. International investment restrictions and closed-end country fund prices. Journal of Finance 45, 523–547] that announcement of financial market liberalization is associated with a decrease in the fund premium. It also supports the findings of [Kumar, R., Noronha, G.M., 1992. A re-examination of the relationship between closed-end fund discounts and expenses. Journal of Financial Research 15(2) Summer, 139–147; Chay, J.B., Trzcinka, Charles A., 1999. Managerial performance and the cross-sectional pricing of closed-end funds. Journal of Financial Economics 52, 379–408] of a positive relation between current premium and the risk-adjusted return over the following year.     

Structural models of credit risk are useful: Evidence from hedge ratios on corporate bonds

Structural models of credit risk provide poor predictions of bond prices. We show that, despite this, they provide quite accurate predictions of the sensitivity of corporate bond returns to changes in the value of equity (hedge ratios). This is important since it suggests that the poor performance of structural models may have more to do with the influence of non-credit factors rather than their failure to capture the credit exposure of corporate debt. The main result of this paper is that even the simplest of the structural models [Merton, R., 1974. On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance 29, 449–470] produces hedge ratios that are not rejected in time-series tests. However, we find that the Merton model (with or without stochastic interest rates) does not capture the interest rate sensitivity of corporate debt, which is substantially lower than would be expected from conventional duration measures. The paper also shows that corporate bond prices are related to a number of market-wide factors such as the Fama-French SMB (small minus big) factor in a way that is not predicted by structural models.     

Comparing the performance of market-based and accounting-based bankruptcy prediction models

Recently developed corporate bankruptcy prediction models adopt a contingent claims valuation approach. However, despite their theoretical appeal, tests of their performance compared with traditional simple accounting-ratio-based approaches are limited in the literature. We find the two approaches capture different aspects of bankruptcy risk, and while there is little difference in their predictive ability in the UK, the z-score approach leads to significantly greater bank profitability in conditions of differential decision error costs and competitive pricing regime.     

Portfolio efficiency and discount factor bounds with conditioning information: An empirical study

Stochastic discount factor bounds provide a useful diagnostic tool for testing asset pricing models by specifying a lower bound on the variance of any admissible discount factor. In this paper, we provide a unified derivation of such bounds in the presence of conditioning information, which allows us to compare their theoretical and empirical properties. We find that, while the location of the ‘unconditionally efficient (UE)’ bounds of [Ferson, W., Siegel, A., 2001. The efficient use of conditioning information in portfolios. Journal of Finance 56 (3), 967–982] is statistically indistinguishable from the (theoretically) optimal bounds of [Gallant, R., Hansen, L., Tauchen, G., 1990. Using conditional moments of asset payoffs to infer the volatility of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution. Journal of Econometrics 45 (1), 141–179] (GHT), the former exhibit better sampling properties. We demonstrate that the difference in sampling variability of the UE and GHT bounds is due to the different behavior of the efficient return weights underlying their construction.     

Inflation-indexed swaps and swaptions

This article considers the pricing and hedging of inflation-indexed swaps, and the pricing of inflation-indexed swaptions, and options on inflation-indexed bonds. To price the inflation-indexed swaps, we suggest an extended HJM model. The model allows both the forward rates and the consumer price index to be driven, not only by a standard multidimensional Wiener process but also by a general marked point process. Our model is an extension of the HJM approach proposed by Jarrow and Yildirim [Jarrow, R., Yildirim, Y., 2003. Pricing treasury inflation protected securities and related derivatives using an HJM model. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 38, 409–430] and later also used by Mercurio [Mercurio, F., 2005. Pricing inflation-indexed derivatives. Quantitative Finance 5 (3), 289–302] to price inflation-indexed swaps. Furthermore we price options on so called TIPS-bonds assuming the model is purely Wiener driven. We then introduce an inflation swap market model to price inflation-indexed swaptions. All prices derived have explicit closed-form solutions. Furthermore, we formally prove the validity of the so called foreign-currency analogy.     

Multifrequency news and stock returns

Equity prices are driven by shocks with persistence levels ranging from intraday horizons to several decades. To accommodate this diversity, we introduce a parsimonious equilibrium model with regime shifts of heterogeneous durations in fundamentals, and estimate specifications with up to 256 states on daily aggregate returns. The multifrequency equilibrium has higher likelihood than the Campbell and Hentschel [1992. No news is good news: an asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics 31, 281–318] specification, while producing volatility feedback 10 to 40 times larger. Furthermore, Bayesian learning about volatility generates a novel trade-off between skewness and kurtosis as information quality varies, complementing the uncertainty channel [e.g., Veronesi, 1999. Stock market overreaction to bad news in good times: a rational expectations equilibrium model. Review of Financial Studies 12, 975–1007]. Economies with intermediate information best match daily returns.     

Endogenous leverage and expected stock returns

This note clarifies conditions under which endogenous choice of debt induces a negative relation between leverage or default risk and expected stock returns. In the context of the model of George and Hwang [2009. Journal of Financial Economics 96, 56–79], we correct the contention that variation in bankruptcy costs across firms is sufficient. Variation in asset risk parameters can lead to the desired relation, but may not when also controlling for variation in book-to-market ratios. A simple parameterization of cross-sectional heterogeneity in risk and profitability implies a negative association of expected return with leverage and distress risk and a positive association with book-to-market.     

Static hedging and pricing American options

This paper utilizes the static hedge portfolio (SHP) approach of Derman et al. [Derman, E., Ergener, D., Kani, I., 1995. Static options replication. Journal of Derivatives 2, 78–95] and Carr et al. [Carr, P., Ellis, K., Gupta, V., 1998. Static hedging of exotic options. Journal of Finance 53, 1165–1190] to price and hedge American options under the Black-Scholes (1973) model and the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model of Cox [Cox, J., 1975. Notes on option pricing I: Constant elasticity of variance diffusion. Working Paper, Stanford University]. The static hedge portfolio of an American option is formulated by applying the value-matching and smooth-pasting conditions on the early exercise boundary. The results indicate that the numerical efficiency of our static hedge portfolio approach is comparable to some recent advanced numerical methods such as Broadie and Detemple [Broadie, M., Detemple, J., 1996. American option valuation: New bounds, approximations, and a comparison of existing methods. Review of Financial Studies 9, 1211–1250] binomial Black-Scholes method with Richardson extrapolation (BBSR). The accuracy of the SHP method for the calculation of deltas and gammas is especially notable. Moreover, when the stock price changes, the recalculation of the prices and hedge ratios of the American options under the SHP method is quick because there is no need to solve the static hedge portfolio again. Finally, our static hedging approach also provides an intuitive derivation of the early exercise boundary near expiration.     

Debt,investment, and product market competition: A note on the limited liability effect

This paper extends a model by Brander and Lewis [Brander, J., Lewis, T., 1986. Oligopoly and financial structure: The limited liability effect. American Economic Review 76, 956–970] on the relationship between capital structure, investment and product market competition based on the limited liability effect of debt. Empirical papers (see for example Campello [Campello, M., 2003. Capital structure and product markets interactions: Evidence from business cycles. Journal of Financial Economics 68, 353–378], and Chevalier [Chevalier, J., 1995a. Capital structure and product market competition: Empirical evidence from the supermarket industry. American Economic Review 85, 415–435; Chevalier, J., 1995b. Do LBO supermarkets charge more? An empirical analysis of the effect of LBOs on supermarket pricing. Journal of Finance 50, 1095–1112]) generally reject the limited liability theories in favor of the predatory theories because leverage leads to less investment and weaker product market competition. This paper shows that when firms also have an investment choice, leverage can lead to weaker product market competition in a limited liability model. In addition, non-zero leverage is still optimal within this model based solely on the limited liability effect. In predatory models debt is motivated by issues outside of product market concerns, for example to solve an agency problem. Finally, this model is also consistent with the investment decisions documented empirically.     

Evaluating a non-linear asset pricing model on international data

The paper analyses the ability of a non-linear asset pricing model suggested by Dittmar [Dittmar, R.F., 2002. Non-linear pricing kernels, kurtosis preference, and the cross-section of equity returns. Journal of Finance 57, 369-403] to explain the returns on international value and growth portfolios. For comparison we use competing pricing models such as the ICAPM, the exchange rate risk augmented ICAPM and the international two-factor model proposed by Fama and French [Fama, E.F., French, K. R., 1998. Value versus growth: The international evidence. Journal of Finance 53, 1975-1999]. All models are evaluated both unconditionally and conditionally. The models are evaluated by applying the Hansen and Jagannathan distance measure, and we also employ several alternative measures to ensure a robust comparison of the models. We find support for the model of Dittmar [Dittmar, R.F., 2002. Non-linear pricing kernels, kurtosis preference, and the cross-section of equity returns. Journal of Finance 57, 369-403]. Evaluated conditionally, this model successfully passes all the different diagnostic tests performed in the analysis.     

Implied volatility and future portfolio returns

Prior studies find that the CBOE volatility index (VIX) predicts returns on stock market indices, suggesting implied volatilities measured by VIX are a risk factor affecting security returns or an indicator of market inefficiency. We extend prior work in three important ways. First, we investigate the relationship between future returns and current implied volatility levels and innovations. Second, we examine portfolios sorted on book-to-market equity, size, and beta. Third, we control for the four Fama and French [Fama, E., French, K., 1993. Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics 33, 3–56.] and Carhart [Carhart, M., 1997. On persistence in mutual fund performance. Journal of Finance, 52, 57–82.] factors. We find that VIX-related variables have strong predictive ability.     

Output and expected returns

This paper shows for 1929–2003 U.S. data and also for international G-7 data that the ratio of share prices to GDP tracks a large fraction of the variation over time in expected returns on the aggregate stock market, capturing more of that variation than do price–earnings and price–dividend ratios and often also providing additional information about excess returns. The price–output ratio tracks long-term U.S. cumulative stock returns almost as well as the cay-ratio of Lettau and Ludvigson [2001a. Journal of Finance 56, 815–849, 2005. Journal of Financial Economics 76, 583–626], although the cay-ratio tracks variation in U.S. excess returns better. The price–output ratio, however, involves no parameter estimation and is easily constructed for non-U.S. countries.     

Information acquisition and financial contagion

This paper incorporates costly voluntary acquisition of information à la Nikitin and Smith (2007) [Nikitin, M., Smith, R.T., 2007. Information acquisition, coordination, and fundamentals in a financial crisis. Journal of Banking and Finance, in press, doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2007.04.031], in a framework similar to Allen and Gale (2000) [Allen, F., Gale, D., 2000. Financial contagion. Journal of Political Economy 108, 1–33], without relying on any unexpected shock to model contagion. In this framework, contagion and financial crises are the result of information gathering by depositors, weak fundamentals and an incomplete market structure of banks. It also shows how financial systems entering a recession can affect others with apparently stronger economic conditions (contagion). Finally, this is the first paper to investigate the effectiveness of the Contingent Credit Line procedures, introduced by the IMF at the end of the nineties, as a mechanism to prevent the propagation of crises.     

Idiosyncratic risk and the cross-section of expected stock returns

Theories such as Merton [1987. A simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information. Journal of Finance 42, 483–510] predict a positive relation between idiosyncratic risk and expected return when investors do not diversify their portfolio. Ang, Hodrick, Xing, and Zhang [2006. The cross-section of volatility and expected returns. Journal of Finance 61, 259–299], however, find that monthly stock returns are negatively related to the one-month lagged idiosyncratic volatilities. I show that idiosyncratic volatilities are time-varying and thus, their findings should not be used to imply the relation between idiosyncratic risk and expected return. Using the exponential GARCH models to estimate expected idiosyncratic volatilities, I find a significantly positive relation between the estimated conditional idiosyncratic volatilities and expected returns. Further evidence suggests that Ang et al.'s findings are largely explained by the return reversal of a subset of small stocks with high idiosyncratic volatilities.     

The conditional nature of the value of corporate governance

Agency theory suggests that governance matters more among firms with greater potential agency costs. Rational investors are unlikely to value safeguards against unlikely events. Yet, few studies of the relation between governance and firm value control for investor perceptions of the likelihood of agency conflicts. Shleifer and Vishny [Shleifer, A., Vishny, R.W., 1997. A survey of corporate governance. Journal of Finance 52, 737–783] identify investment-related agency conflicts as the more severe type of agency conflicts in the US. We measure the perceived likelihood of this type of agency conflict using free cash flow (Jensen, M.C., 1986. Agency costs of free cash flow, corporate finance, and takeovers. American Economic Review 76, 323–329). We find that firm value is an increasing function of improved governance quality among firms with high free cash flow. In contrast, governance benefits are lower or insignificant among firms with low free cash flow. We show that not controlling for this conditional relation between governance and firm value could lead to erroneous conclusions that governance and firm value are unrelated.     

Analytical pricing of discretely monitored Asian-style options: Theory and application to commodity markets

We compute an analytical expression for the moment generating function of the joint random vector consisting of a spot price and its discretely monitored average for a large class of square-root price dynamics. This result, combined with the Fourier transform pricing method proposed by Carr and Madan [Carr, P., Madan D., 1999. Option valuation using the fast Fourier transform. Journal of Computational Finance 2(4), Summer, 61–73] allows us to derive a closed-form formula for the fair value of discretely monitored Asian-style options. Our analysis encompasses the case of commodity price dynamics displaying mean reversion and jointly fitting a quoted futures curve and the seasonal structure of spot price volatility. Four tests are conducted to assess the relative performance of the pricing procedure stemming from our formulae. Empirical results based on natural gas data from NYMEX and corn data from CBOT show a remarkable improvement over the main alternative techniques developed for pricing Asian-style options within the market standard framework of geometric Brownian motion.     

International diversification strategies: Revisited from the risk perspective

Following Roll [Roll, R., 1992. Industrial structure and comparative behaviour of international stock market indices. Journal of Finance 47, 3–42] and Heston and Rouwenhorst [Heston, S.L., Rouwenhorst, G.K., 1994. Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification. Journal of Financial Economics 36, 3–27], researchers have decomposed stock returns into country and industry components. Evidence suggests that industry components have become more important in recent years, but the reasons for this are unclear. Existing research concentrated mainly on stock returns in industrial countries. In this paper we consider instead the decomposition of stock risks within emerging equity markets. We provide a rationale for this procedure and its relationship to return decompositions. The results provide new firm-specific evidence on the debate over country and industry components, their stability over time, and the implications for portfolio diversification.     

Does industry-wide distress affect defaulted firms? Evidence from creditor recoveries

Using data on defaulted firms in the United States over the period 1982–1999, we show that creditors of defaulted firms recover significantly lower amounts in present-value terms when the industry of defaulted firms is in distress. We investigate whether this is purely an economic-downturn effect or also a fire-sales effect along the lines of Shleifer and Vishny [1992. Liquidation values and debt capacity: a market equilibrium approach. Journal of Finance 47, 1343–1366]. We find the fire-sales effect to be also at work: Creditors recover less if the industry is in distress and non-defaulted firms in the industry are illiquid, particularly if the industry is characterized by assets that are specific, that is, not easily redeployable by other industries, and if the debt is collateralized by such specific assets. The interaction effect of industry-level distress and asset-specificity is strongest for senior unsecured creditors, is economically significant, and robust to contract-specific, firm-specific, macroeconomic, and bond-market supply effects. We also document that defaulted firms in distressed industries are more likely to emerge as restructured firms than to be acquired or liquidated, and spend longer time in bankruptcy.     

Empirical performance of multifactor term structure models for pricing and hedging Eurodollar futures options

This article compares two one-factor, two two-factor, two three-factor models in the HJM class and Black's [Black, F. (1976). The pricing of commodity contracts. Journal of Financial Economics, 3, 167-179.] implied volatility function in terms of their pricing and hedging performance for Eurodollar futures options across strikes and maturities from 1 Jan 2000 to 31 Dec 2002. We find that three-factor models perform the best for 1-day and 1-week prediction, as well as for 5-day and 20-day hedging. The moneyness bias and the maturity bias appear for all models, but the three-factor models produce lower bias. Three-factor models also outperform other models in hedging, in particular for away-from-the-money and long-dated options. Making Black's volatility a square root or exponential function performs similar to one-factor HJM models in pricing, but not in hedging. Correctly specified and calibrated multifactor models are thus important and cannot be replaced by one-factor models in pricing or hedging interest rate contingent claims.