货币反替代及其影响的动态CGE研究

现阶段存在的人民币升值趋势出现了居民增持本币资产和抛售外币资产这一"货币反替代"问题。运用动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型—MCHUGE模型分析货币反替代对当前中国宏观经济的影响及不同货币反替代程度下的走势,其仿真结果表明:人民币的小幅度反替代可以在保持中国经济平稳运行的前提下释放人民币升值压力,同时可以改善中国的贸易条件,有利于出口竞争型企业的发展,但从事初级产品生产的产业将受到不同程度的负面冲击,产出水平和就业都有所衰退。     

Trade Liberalization and Exports Promotion: A Dynamic and Heterogeneous Analysis Under the Case of Chile

We develop a dynamic and heterogeneous firm model that embodies a firm’s joint decisions to export and innovate and allows both decisions to affect the firm’s production growth. We then calibrate the model with data obtained from Chilean manufacturing plants between 2005 and 2007 and simulate the impact of trade liberalization under different combinations of industry age and speed of trade liberalization. On the one hand, a quickly implemented trade liberalization policy significantly increases the exports intensity of a young industry newly opening up to the world. The increase in exports intensity is greater with quicker implementation of trade liberalization. On the other hand, trade liberalization for a mature industry does not lead to a significant impact on exports intensity.     

外商对华直接投资的经济增长效应分析

随着中国经济的平稳和快速增长,外商对华直接投资呈现出不断增长的趋势。就外商对华直接投资的经济效应而言,FDI与GDP的增长率高度吻合。FDI对我国宏观经济的多个变量都产生了深远的影响,并且FDI通过影响这些变量,进而增加了国民收入水平,促进了经济增长。     

Inward FDI and Financial Constraints in Central and East European Countries

This study examines whether domestically owned firms in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) confronted higher financial constraints in their investments than did foreign-owned enterprises, and whether the domestic enterprises' financial constraints were caused by incoming foreign direct investment (FDI). In theory, foreign investment may be needed to bring in capital only initially; the subsequent investment can be financed locally. On the other hand, foreign-owned companies may be more attractive borrowers, crowding out domestic firms from imperfect host-country capital markets. Both hypotheses, however, are rejected, as the results are not consistent across different dependent variables and verification methods. There is some evidence that FDI reduced foreign subsidiaries' constraints without increasing the constraints suffered by the domestic enterprises. Tests are performed with regressions based on two alternative firm-level models, a direct one using perception-based assessment of the constraints, and an indirect one with financial indicators.     

Taxation and Foreign Direct Investment: A Synthesis of Empirical Research

This paper reviews the empirical literature on the impact of company taxes on the allocation of foreign direct investment. We compare the outcomes of 25 empirical studies by computing the tax rate elasticity under a uniform definition. The median value of the tax rate elasticity in the literature is around –3.3 (i.e. a 1%-point reduction in the host-country tax rate raises foreign direct investment in that country by 3.3%). There exists substantial variation across studies, however. By performing a meta-analysis, the paper aims to explain this variation by the differences in characteristics of the underlying studies. Systematic differences between studies are found with respect to the type of foreign capital data used, and the type of tax rates adopted. We find no systematic differences in the responsiveness of investors from tax credit countries and tax exemption countries.     

河南省外商直接投资的现状及对策分析

跨国公司对外直接投资（FDI）是海外对华投资的主要形式,对各地区经济的长期发展起了重要作用。地处内陆的河南省是我国经济大省,虽然近些年在引进外商直接投资方面取得较大进展,但依旧存在着诸如外资引进质量不高、管理不善、产业投向和地区分布不均衡等问题。河南省应该扬长避短,突破地域范围条件限制,狠抓投资环境,提高引资质量,并加大外资的产业导向,提高外资管理水平;借助当前＂中原经济区建设＂的有利时机,协调省内各地市引资状况,充分利用外商直接投资以促进本省域经济的持续快速发展。     

人民币实际有效汇率、FDI与中国经济增长——兼论巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应在中国的适用性

本文在VAR模型的基础上,利用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应函数,研究了人民币实际有效汇率、FDI和中国经济增长的动态关系。结果表明,长期内人民币实际有效汇率贬值,促进了FDI流入;中国经济增长促进了人民币实际有效汇率的升值,证明了巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应的存在。     

Taxing multinationals in a world with portfolio flows and R&D: Is capital export neutrality obsolete?

This paper examines recent claims that capital export neutrality no longer serves as an effective principle for the taxation of income from foreign direct investment, due to the large and growing role played by portfolio capital in financing investment and to the recognition that R&D is an important determinant of international trade and investment. In our evaluation of these claims, we find capital export neutrality appears robust. Because both domestic and foreign activities may be financed with portfolio capital, and they both produce goods that compete in the world economy, there is no compelling reason to grant a lower tax to foreign income alone. Regarding the promotion of R&D or the entry of new competitors, cutting the tax on foreign income may be no more effective than cutting the tax on domestic income. A second focus of the paper is to calculate what the residual U.S. tax rate on active foreign income actually is. Based on 1990 data this rate is negative if foreign income is defined appropriately.     

Effects of Foreign Presence in a Transition Economy: Regional and Industrywide Investments and Firm-Level Exports in Ukrainian Manufacturing

We investigate the effects of regional and industrywide foreign presence and foreign direct investment (FDI) on the export volumes of Ukrainian manufacturing firms using unpublished panel data from 1996-2000. Foreign presence through FDI may have negative competition effects on domestic firms' performance; at the same time, domestic firms' productivity may be increased by technology transfer or training and demonstration effects. From a Cournot competition model that includes negative competition and positive technology spillover effects, we hypothesize that foreign presence and FDI might positively affect domestic firms' output and exports. Our estimation results support these hypotheses, suggesting in particular that large firms and durable goods producers benefit most from foreign presence and investments.     

Fiscal Stimulus in Times of High Debt: Reconsidering Multipliers and Twin Deficits

We investigate the impact of fiscal stimuli at different levels of the government debt‐to‐GDP ratio for a sample of 17 European countries from 1970 to 2010. This is implemented in an interacted panel VAR framework in which all coefficient parameters are allowed to change continuously with the debt‐to‐GDP ratio. We find that responses to government spending shocks exhibit strong nonlinear behavior. While the overall cumulative effect of a spending shock on real GDP is positive and significant at moderate debt‐to‐GDP ratios, this effect turns negative as the ratio increases. The total cumulative effect on the trade balance as a share of GDP is negative at first but switches sign at higher levels of debt. Consequently, depending on the degree of public indebtedness, our results accommodate long‐run fiscal multipliers that are greater and smaller than one or even negative as well as twin deficit and twin divergence behavior within one sample and time period. From a policy perspective, these results lend additional support to increased prudence at high public debt ratios because the effectiveness of fiscal stimuli to boost economic activity or resolve external imbalances may not be guaranteed.     

Fiscal Requirements for Dynamic and Real Determinacies in Economies with Private Provision of Liquidity: A Monetarist Assessment

We study the impact of fiscal policies on the inherent links between inflation, unemployment, and asset prices in an environment where firms provide liquidity and the central bank follows a constant money growth rate rule. Firms, other than hiring workers, also supply private assets that are not only useful as a store of value but also as collateral. When firms are not taxed and public debt is scarce, the economy is non-Ricardian so that real indeterminacies can be observed. Moreover, labor market characteristics do not affect the demand for government liabilities. However, when agents face public and private asset scarcity, labor market conditions then impact asset prices and inflation. We further show that irrespective of the type of asset scarcity agents face, when firms are taxed non-ad valorem, not only the level of tax revenues but also its composition matter for real allocations. Moreover, we show that labor market conditions directly affect the dynamics of all government liabilities and inflation.     

有效汇率、贸易顺差与跨境资本流动的动态关系研究--基于国际收支平衡表的时间序列分析

文章采用1988年1季度到2014年2季度的国际收支平衡表数据,通过建立 VAR模型分析了名义有效汇率、货物贸易顺差与跨境资本流动之间的相互关系。研究结果表明：（1）三者之间存在着一种非对称的互动关系;（2）“货物贸易顺差→名义实际汇率→跨境资本流动→货物贸易顺差”之间形成了自我循环机制,而这一自我循环机制的关键是“货物贸易顺差←→跨境资本流动”互为因果且相互加强的关系;（3）中国双顺差现象是一个结构性问题,并与该自我循环机制密切相关。     

我国短期跨境资本极端流动测度与影响因素研究——基于CDF模型的实证分析

众所周知,跨境资本无序流动容易诱发金融危机,相对于平常流动,极端流动与金融危机发生的关系更加密切。通过测算,短期资本是影响我国跨境资本流动形势的重要因素,因此我们需要对短期资本极端流动进行有效管理。本文进一步测算了我国短期跨境资本净流入的极端波动情况,运用累积分布函数模型分别分析影响激增和急停发生概率的宏观因素,同时通过回测验证了模型具有一定的预测能力,最后根据实证结果提出针对短期跨境资本极端流动实施管理的政策建议。     

"国有股划拨社保基金"及"社保基金海外投资"政策的经济效应——基于文字表述的一般均衡模型分析

“国有控股上市公司划拨部分国有股充实全国社保基金”和“全国社保基金海外投资”引人瞩目,全国社保基金运营(包括筹集、保值增值)的经济效应(经济增长效应和再分配效应)研究愈显重要。本文运用文字表述的一般均衡模型分析说明:全国社保基金长期持有部分国有股、社保基金海外投资分别通过“降低代际企业所有权的转移成本”和“资本市场专门人才培育、社保基金保值增值”两条传导途径促进经济均衡增长(增长效应),增加劳动者和退休人的福利(再分配效应)。建议加快“划拨国有股充实社保”步伐,减少全国社保基金国内投资、加大海外投资比重,加强对海外投资的有效监管。     

Tax Evasion,Investment Shocks,and the Consumption Puzzle: A DSGE Analysis with Financial Frictions

Recent studies identify Marginal Efficiency of Investment (MEI) shocks as important drivers of the business cycle. However, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models struggle to explain macroeconomic comovements between consumption and the key real variables after a MEI shock. Moreover, engaging in tax evasion practices is often an answer to financial constraints, which have been recognized as important determinants of cyclical fluctuations as well. We use a medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model, that combines tax evasion with financial frictions, to simulate a MEI shock. We show that entrepreneurial tax evasion can solve the comovement problem to a fair extent.