经济增长对实际汇率的影响:基于巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应的分析

巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应假说认为经历高速经济增长的国家,其贸易品部门的生产率提高较快,这将导致实际汇率升值。本文利用1978-2010年的中国年度时间序列数据对巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应假说进行实证检验,结果表明巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应在中国是显著成立的,从长期看中国两部门相对劳动生产率的提高会带来人民币实际汇率的升值。     

Three‐Regime Asymmetric STAR Modeling and Exchange Rate Reversion

The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and the adoption of generalized floating exchange rates ushered in a new era of exchange rate volatility and uncertainty. This increased volatility leads economists to search for economic models able to describe observed exchange rate behavior. In the present paper, we propose more general STAR transition functions that encompass both threshold nonlinearity and asymmetric effects. Our framework allows for a gradual adjustment from one regime to another and considers threshold effects by encompassing other existing models, such as TAR models. We apply our methodology to three different exchange rate data sets: one for developing countries and official nominal exchange rates, the second for emerging market economies using black market exchange rates, and the third for OECD economies.     

Effects of Private Ownership,Trade, and Foreign Direct Investment on Labor Productivity Growth in Transition Economies: Evidence from the Croatian Manufacturing Industry

In this study, we investigate the determinants of labor productivity dynamics in transition economies using data from Croatian manufacturing industries. Capital intensity growth and human capital accumulation have been significant contributors to stronger productivity gains. Private-sector development has positively affected productivity growth—but mostly through the increasing role of new private companies. Still, unfinished privatization represents a significant obstacle to stronger productivity gains. The effect of increasing trade openness is significant but negative, most likely owing to weak export competitiveness of Croatian companies. Neither greenfield nor (predominant) brownfield foreign direct investment inflows have contributed to higher labor productivity growth. Further privatization and structural reforms seem to be the most promising policy measures that need to be undertaken in order to achieve higher productivity gains.     

外商直接投资、经济波动与宏观调控政策

外商直接投资与人民币汇率、国内外经济增长、劳动成本、资本市场收益率当中某一个变量之间的长期均衡关系受制于其它变量。与国内因素相比较,国际因素对外商直接投资长期趋势的影响更大。与人民币汇率的短期变动相比较,外商更加重视人民币汇率的长期趋势。另外,只有当经济系统失衡较小时,外商直接投资增长率才会在短期内对系统失衡做出显著反应。所以,宏观调控政策必须把握时机,尽量避免经济系统出现较大偏差。     

Search Frictions,Labor Supply,and the Asymmetric Business Cycle

We develop a business cycle model that generates asymmetry between peaks and troughs of the unemployment rate and symmetric fluctuations of the participation rate as in the U.S. data. We calibrate the model and find that search frictions are solely responsible for the peak–trough asymmetry. Participation decisions do not generate asymmetry but contribute to the fluctuations in search frictions by changing the size and composition of the pool of job seekers, which in turn affects the tightness ratio and thereby slack in the labor market. The participation rate would be counterfactually asymmetric absent labor supply responses to shocks.     

Labor cost,government intervention,and corporate innovation: Evidence from China

We examine the inducement effect of labor cost on corporate innovation in emerging markets. To establish causality, we adopt a difference-in-differences approach, based on the variations generated by the passage of the new Labor Contract Law in China, as well as an instrumental variable approach. We find the inducement effect of labor cost is more pronounced for Chinese non-state-owned enterprises, firms without political connections, and firms with low labor productivity. Our results support the induced innovation hypothesis in that increases in wages will induce invention and technology adoption, but also suggest that government intervention through state ownership and political connections largely decreases this inducement effect. Our findings have implications for emerging markets regarding the transition from a low-cost labor development model to an innovation-driven growth model.     

人民币汇率与企业生产率变动--来自中国的经验证据

基于2000—2007年工业企业微观数据和高度细化的海关数据,本文深入考察了人民币实际有效汇率对中国制造业企业生产率的影响。结果显示:(1)人民币实际有效汇率升值对制造业企业生产率的净效应为正,其通过企业资本劳动要素配置效应、企业选择效应、规模经济效应以及人力资本提升效应对制造业企业的生产率提升产生了积极影响,并且上述结论在考虑了人民币实际有效汇率的内生性问题之后依然稳健;(2)人民币实际有效汇率对企业生产率的影响,因企业出口与否、贸易方式、技术水平和所有制的不同而具有显著的异质性;(3)作为人民币汇率影响企业生产率的制约因素,企业融资能力越强,人民币汇率升值对企业生产率的积极影响越大。     

工资生产率背离与实际汇率——中美巴萨效应再检验

本文通过放松巴萨效应(B-S效应)两大假设,构建了包含贸易品一价定律偏离和劳动力市场分割的开放经济局部均衡模型对人民币实际汇率进行分解,并使用中美服务业细分行业与制造业2004Q1-2016Q4季度数据,分组对人民币实际汇率的B-S效应及其传导渠道进行实证检验。研究发现:(1)中美之间B-S效应成立,但相对相对生产率通过影响相对相对工资从而影响物价水平,并最终影响实际汇率这一传导渠道不成立;(2)除传统B-S效应传导渠道外,我们发现相对相对生产率通过影响GDP进而影响实际汇率这一传导渠道;(3)产业结构失衡在一定程度上导致中国相对生产率和相对工资背离,使得相对相对工资的增加对人民币实际汇率产生负向(升值)作用。这说明,要时刻关注经济基本面,通过供给侧结构性改革提高劳动生产率,实现高端制造业和服务业的协调发展。     

Economic exposure and hysteresis: Evidence from German,Japanese, and U.S. stock returns

Real exchange rate changes reflect terms of trade changes and macroeconomic shocks in productivity, aggregate demand, and interest rates. We show that German, Japanese, and U.S. excess stock returns vary directly with changes in the real terms of trade as well as with exchange rate changes induced by the macroeconomic factors. These results suggest that economic exposure is a global phenomenon. Although German, Japanese, and U.S. firms appear to adjust costs and productivity in response to economic exposure, there are indications that firms in all three countries suffer from hysteresis, an effect persisting after the initial cause is removed.     

Determinants of Labor Productivity in MENA Countries

This article scrutinizes the role of various determinants (compensation, human capital, oil rent, trade, financial development, innovation, and industrialization) in labor productivity in the context of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. Dynamic-OLS and fully modified-OLS were applied to analyze panel time series data over the period 1980 to 2014. It was found that size of employment and compensation are negatively associated with labor productivity, while human capital and capital stock are positively associated with it; and that oil rent, financial development, trade openness, and industrial value addition play significant roles in promoting labor productivity. Finally, innovation was found to be an important factor in accelerating labor productivity. These findings are important for labor policy making in MENA economies.     

我国通货膨胀的结构性原因——基于贸易部门和非贸易部门的研究

本文基于巴拉萨-萨缪尔森理论,探讨经济结构性因素对中长期通货膨胀形成的影响。我们在贸易品和非贸易品(TNT)模型的基础上建立部门劳动生产率增长差异、汇率变动与通货膨胀关系的理论框架,分析在贸易品国际市场定价条件下三者之间的关系;基于我国30多年来部门劳动生产率增长差异的特征事实,实证分析了部门劳动生产率增长差异、汇率变动对通货膨胀的影响。     

劳动力市场性别差距、生产结构转型与人口增长转变

本文从劳动力市场性别差距视角为理解生产结构转型与人口增长转变的互动关系提出了新的理论机制。以脑力劳动密集型生产部门比重提高为特征的生产结构转型将缩小性别工资差距，提高家庭生育养育机会成本并降低生育率，进而增加女性劳动相对供给，这又会进一步提高脑力劳动密集型生产部门比重。直接干预女性劳动定价政策可能会带来女性结构性失业，反而扩大劳动力市场性别差距，且不利于生产结构转型；单方面降低女性生育养育成本政策虽然能够提高生育率，但也可能产生类似不利影响；降低男性生育养育成本政策既可以提高生育率，又可以缩小劳动力市场性别差距，并促进生产结构转型；生育养育成本补贴支出由政府承担的影响比由企业承担更为温和。本文结果表明，促进人口长期均衡发展的政策应与缩小劳动力市场性别差距、推动生产结构转型的政策统筹谋划和协调推进。本文研究为“优化人口发展战略，建立生育支持政策体系”提供了一定的理论依据和参考。     

基于面板数据的不同产业并购对公司劳动力需求影响实证研究

以2002～2008年沪深两市发生并购的不同产业上市公司平衡面板数据集为研究总样本,通过构造固定效应变截距面板数据中模型,探究不同产业公司并购对公司劳动力需求影响.发现:不同产业公司并购对公司劳动力需求有差异影响.第一产业所发生公司并购对公司劳动力需求有正向影响,即并购发生导致公司劳动力需求增加2.4%左右,但结果不显著;第二产业、第三产业所发生公司并购对公司劳动力需求有显著负向影响,第二产业发生公司并购导致公司劳动力需求减少1.3%左右、第三产业发生公司并购导致公司劳动力需求减少2.6%左右.通过此研究,不但从理论上丰富并购研究内容,拓展并购研究范围,而且在并购对公司劳动力需求有影响前提下,为政府制定关于社会就业合理政策提供重要参考.     

中国资本产出、资本回报与资本流向之谜--基于劳动力价格扭曲视角北大核心

本文通过建立生产部门的要素买方垄断市场均衡模型,利用1996-2016年中国省级面板数据测算中国劳动力价格扭曲程度,并使用固定效应模型(FE)及面板固定效应的工具变量(IV)估计方法加以分析,从劳动力价格扭曲视角解答了中国资本产出、资本回报与资本流向之谜,即中国经济如何在赶超阶段面临资本深化不断加剧和TFP增长乏力的情况下,依靠劳动力价格扭曲实现低资本产出与高资本回报水平共存,从而维持长期高速资本积累以及优质的资本流向结构。实证研究表明:劳动力价格扭曲降低了资本产出效率,但这并不能掩盖由劳动力向资本方转移的垄断利润对资本回报的直接补贴,因此劳动力价格扭曲对中国维持高资本回报水平起到了重要的支撑作用,并通过高资本回报水平实现了地区资本快速积累,劳动力价格扭曲对资本流向的积极作用还体现在抑制资本"脱实向虚"及吸引外资流入。因此,应正视劳动力价格扭曲在赶超阶段的特殊作用,在矫正扭曲的过程中循序渐进,更积极采取措施规避其对资本回报和资本流向可能产生的不利影响。     

Performance Impact of the Elimination of Direct Labor Variance Reporting: A Field Study

Using a field study approach, we examine two competing perspectives on direct labor variance reporting: some argue that direct labor variance reporting is costly and cumbersome, and should be eliminated; whereas others contend that without direct labor variance information, managers will not be able to monitor workers effectively, causing workers to shirk and worker productivity to decline. Specifically, we investigate the productivity and quality impacts of eliminating direct labor variance reporting with panel data containing 36 months of data from seven experimental plants that eliminated direct labor variance reporting and 11 control plants that did not. The experimental plants experienced a significant decline in labor productivity compared to the control plants. Also, the experimental plants showed an improvement in product quality, indicating that workers reallocate their efforts to other tasks as a result of the change in the information set available to evaluate them.     

Real exchange rate, productivity and labor market frictions

We extend the classic Balassa-Samuelson model to an environment with search unemployment. We show that the classic Balassa-Samuelson model with the assumption of full employment emerges as a special case of our more generalized model. In our generalized model, the degree of labor market matching efficiency affects the strength of the structural relationship between the real exchange rate and sectoral productivity through influencing labor’s choice between employment and unemployment as well as movement across sectors. When the relative labor market matching friction is high, search unemployment is high and the standard Balassa-Samuelson effect may not hold. Empirical evidence supports our theory: controlling for differences in labor market frictions across countries provides a better fit in estimating the Balassa-Samuelson effect.     

事实汇率制度选择、企业生产率与对外直接投资

企业“走出去”和汇率制度安排灵活化是中国参与全球经济的两大典型特征,本文从企业异质性视角讨论了双边事实汇率制度选择对企业对外直接投资的影响效应。理论层面上,本文将Gali and Monacelli(2005)的一般均衡框架拓展为两国模型,发现双边固定汇率制度降低了企业进入东道国开展OFDI活动的生产率阈值,提高了企业对外直接投资倾向。同时,尽管企业生产率的提升能够促进企业对外直接投资活动,但其促进力度明显不及双边事实固定汇率制度安排。实证层面上,本文采用了中国商务部公布的2000-2013年《境外投资企业(机构)名录》等微观企业数据,发现双边事实固定汇率制度能使企业进行OFDI概率平均提高0.8%~55.4%。考虑其他异质性因素及内生性问题后,本文主要结论依然稳健。     

Wages, exchange rates and competitiveness

Conclusion Wage growth in west Germany has, over the longer term and with few exceptions, been far more closely oriented towards macroeconomic productivity growth than in the majority of its competitor countries. Even after adjusting for exchange rate movements, it is evident that unit labour costs in west Germany have, in general, growth significantly less strongly and in most cases are lower in absolute terms than abroad. The fact that, in spite of this, Germany has repeatedly faced foreign trade problems, is due to the volatility of exchanges rates. The demand—in such cases seemingly self-evident, although usually not explicitly formulated—that collective wage bargainers ought to orient wage growth not only towards productivity growth but also towards exchange rates would mean standing the economy on its head, however. A rational alternative to this is to stabilise exchange rates or indeed their partial abolition, as is the aim of European Monetary Union. It would be irrational, on the other hand, to abolish the wage determination system which, on the whole, has proved its effectiveness in orienting average wage increases towards macroeconomic productivity growth.     

Optimal exchange rate flexibility with large labor unions

We study the optimal volatility of the exchange rate in a two-country model with sectoral non-atomistic wage setters, non-traded goods, nominal rigidities and alternative pricing assumptions – producer or local currency pricing. Labor unions internalize the sectoral impact of their wage settlements through firms' labor demand. With local currency pricing, exchange rate depreciation raises sales revenue, which in turn boosts domestic consumption and labor demand. Unions anticipate this effect and set higher wages accordingly. With small unions and low wage markup, optimal monetary policy enhances exchange rate movements to improve its terms of trade. With large unions and high wage markup, optimal monetary policy curbs exchange rate movements to restrain inflationary wage demands and to stabilize employment.     

On‐the‐Job Learning and News‐Driven Business Cycles

This paper proposes a new channel of on‐the‐job learning to explain the positive comovement between consumption and employment following good news about future productivity. The new recruits can generate an additional stream of output production in all future periods, and the firm's labor demand is thus characterized by the forward‐looking property. Therefore, the firm is motivated to hire more new recruits in advance in response to good news about future productivity. Once the increase in labor demand is greater than the decrease in labor supply caused by the income effect, the coincident rise in consumption and employment can be driven by the news shock. When such a channel is paired with investment adjustment costs and the endogenous capacity utilization rate, this paper provides a plausible explanation for simultaneous booms in current consumption, investment, output, and employment to match the empirical evidence under the news shock.