我国金融产业集聚区域差异与影响因素分析——基于68个市级面板数据

本文以我国25个省共68个市为研究对象,以68个城市从2003～ 2009年共七年面板数据作为分析根据,使用主成分分析法构建了衡量城市金融集聚程度的指标体系,并对各城市金融产业集聚的影响因素进行回归分析,结果表明：东部地区与中西部地区的城市金融集聚程度的差异显著,而中部和西部地区的城市金融集聚程度没有显著差异;信息的可获性等因素是影响城市金融产业集聚的重要因素,这说明我们在加强城市金融建设的过程中,应重点考虑信息基础设施等影响金融集聚的相关因素.     

基于宏观视角的商业银行不良贷款影响因素的国际比较

本文选择国内生产总值、固定资产投资总额、广义货币供应量、居民消费物价指数、进出口总额这五个宏观经济指标,利用相关分析、共线性诊断、主成分回归分析等方法建立模型来研究对2000~2013年16个国家商业银行不良贷款率的影响程度。实证结果表明:各国不同宏观经济因素确实会对商业银行不良贷款率产生一定的影响,但是影响的程度和方向存在一定的差异。就中国而言,不能过多依赖相关宏观经济指标来进行调整,可能需要借助于除宏观因素以外的其他因素配合来降低不良贷款率。     

基于利益相关者视角的建筑工业化影响因素研究

我国推行建筑工业化势在必行,但当前建筑市场行为主体主动参与建筑工业化开发的意愿程度较低,究其根源,参与开发建筑工业化面临来自各方面的挑战是不可忽视的原因之一。根据现阶段所面临的政策因素、技术因素、管理因素等三个方面的挑战,在分析相关文献的基础上基于利益相关者视角确定了31个影响因素,并以陕西省为样本展开问卷调查,利用主成分分析法得出三类挑战因素对发展建筑工业化的影响程度。结果表明,政策因素是影响利益相关者关系的最大因素,其他因素间存在明显的关联性。     

我国当前通货膨胀的成因分析与对策建议

文章研究了当前我国通货膨胀的相关问题,依次从影响我国通货膨胀的货币性因素、输入性因素、结构性因素、经济发展推动性因素四个视角考察了我国通货膨胀的成因。文章借鉴学术界以上四个视角的相关研究成果对我国通货膨胀的成因进行了理论分析,并援引了相关统计数据进行了实证分析。最后针对以上分析提出了简单的政策建议。     

影响汇率制度选择的政治因素——东亚和拉美新兴市场国家的实证分析

本文运用新政治经济学的方法分析了利益集团、民主化程度、选举制度和政党等政治因素对新兴市场国家汇率制度选择的影响,并选取韩国、印尼、泰国、马来西亚、智利和巴西6个东亚和拉美具有代表性的新兴市场国家,运用1990￣2005年的相关数据,通过建立计量经济学模型,对其汇率制度选择的政治因素进行了实证分析。     

居民选择互联网金融理财产品的因素分析

近年来,互联网金融理财产品发展迅速并受到广泛关注。为了解居民选择互联网金融理财产品的意愿及其相关影响因素,本文通过设计问卷调查,收集相关信息,在"年龄"、"性别"、"自身教育程度"、"月收入"、"上网时间"、"投资经验"等方面分析了居民意愿,通过建立二元logistic回归分析模型,分析了这些因素的影响程度。基于问卷统计及分析结果,本文提出了相应的政策建议。     

基于ISM模型的农户参与生猪期货意愿的影响因素分析 ——以江西省为例

生猪期货作为传统生猪保险的重要创新,是保障生猪产业发展更为有效的风险管理工具,对于生猪产业的稳步发展具有不可忽视的作用.通过梳理农户参与生猪保险影响因素的文献,结合以江西省为调查对象的实地调研结果,分析得到了农户参与生猪期货意愿的影响因素.并利用ISM模型从个体特征、家庭特征等5个维度研究影响因素以及相互之间的关联.研究结果显示:年龄、对生猪期货的认知与了解程度、性别3个因素是表层直接因素;生猪养殖成本、养殖专业化程度、养殖规模等9个因素是中层间接因素;生猪市场价格波动、受教育程度、政府支持的力度和态度3个因素是深层根源因素.因此,建议生猪养殖农户应主动提高自己的专业技术水平,从事期货交易的相关公司应提高业务员素质,政府要充分发挥主导作用等提高农户的参与意愿.     

中国商品住房价格的影响因素实证研究

商品房价格变化是多种因素发展变化、共同作用的结果。本文截选自2011年我国31个省市自治区的商品房的平均销售价格和相关的截面数据,运用计量经济学理论和建模思路,用Eviews软件对各省市自治区的商品房平均销售价格的影响因素进行回归分析,并对其影响程度大小进行定量实证分析。希望解释商品房价格变化与其相关经济因素的关系,同时能够为我国房地产业的健康和稳定发展提供一些理论方面的支持和帮助。     

区域经济活力影响因素研究——以深圳市为例

以深圳市2005-2017年的GDP数值为衡量区域经济活力的具体指标,通过查找相关文献,找出了对深圳市GDP影响较大的11个因素,建立基于主成分分析法的多元线性回归模型,并进行灵敏度分析,检验模型的稳健性。通过分析回归方程,客观的得出各影响因素对深圳市GDP的影响程度,进而提出提高GDP值的方案。     

农户农产品质量安全认知影响因素分析——以湖南省5县100户农户为例

本文是基于对湖南省5县100户农户的调查基础上,深入的实证分析了影响农产品质量安全认知的因素。研究结果显示：农户年龄、教育程度、投入农产品生产的劳动力数量、收入水平、耕地规模对于农产品质量安全认知密切相关;而且上述个体特征与农户的农产品质量安全认知的几个方面相关程度各有差异。     

Earnings response coefficients of OECD banks: Tests extended to include bank risk factors

We investigate two issues: Do share prices of banks in European markets respond to unexpected accounting earnings disclosures? Are share prices as well as unexpected earnings changes correlated with bank-relevant risk factors? Results reveal that bank share prices respond to unexpected earnings changes at the time of accounting reports in the same manner as the shares of the more widely-researched non-bank firms. Apart from finding significant earnings response coefficients in eight countries, we find that credit risk, price risk, exchange rate risk, and solvency risk are significantly correlated with share price changes. Third, three bank risk factors are significantly correlated with unexpected earnings changes. These results are obtained after corrections for several statistical and econometric problems so our reported parameters are robust, certainly more so than in earlier studies using ordinary least square regressions. These new findings extend earnings response literature to several banking sectors, and also identify bank's key risk factors.     

基于信用利差的中国城投债券信用风险分析

在"四万亿"投资的推动下,中国城投债券的发行规模大幅增加。与此同时,城投公司的整体债务规模也急剧攀升,其债务总量超过了地方政府的财政收入水平,城投公司的整体信用水平不容乐观。因此,城投债券的信用风险需引起足够重视。本文从量化角度研究了影响中国城投债券信用风险的四个因素,结果显示,中国城投债券的信用利差与发债企业的资产规模以及发债企业所在地区的人均GDP水平负相关,与企业债券收益率以及担保正相关。     

Stock Dividends,Stock Splits,and Signaling

This paper provides evidence that firms signal their private information about future earnings by their choice of split factor. Split factors are increasing in earnings forecast errors, after controlling for differences in pre-split price and firm size. Furthermore, price changes at stock dividend and split announcements are significantly correlated with split factors, holding other factors constant, and with earnings forecast errors. These correlations suggest that management's choice of split factor signals private information about future earnings and that investors revise their beliefs about firm value accordingly. The analysis also suggests, however, that announcement returns are significantly correlated with split factors after controlling for earnings forecast errors. This suggests that earnings forecast errors measure management's private information about future earnings with error, that split factors signal other valuation-relevant attributes, or that a signaling explanation is incomplete.     

我国上市公司内部控制缺陷的影响因素研究

本文以2009年深圳股市445家上市公司为研究样本,利用Logit模型对我国上市公司内部控制缺陷的影响因素进行了实证研究.研究发现:资产规模、盈利能力与内部控制实质性漏洞显著负相关;重大重组与内部控制实质性漏洞显著正相关.审计委员会会议次数与内部控制实质性漏洞显著负相关,审计委员会规模、审计委员会中独立董事比例与内部控制实质性漏洞相关性不显著.     

Size,value, and momentum in developed country equity returns: Macroeconomic and liquidity exposures

The paper investigates value and momentum factors in 23 developed international stock markets. We find that typically value and momentum premia are smaller and more negatively correlated for large market capitalization stocks relative to small. Momentum factors are more highly correlated internationally relative to value. We provide international evidence on three sets of risk exposures of value and momentum returns: macroeconomic risk, funding liquidity risk, and stock market liquidity risk. We find that value returns are typically lower prior to a recession while momentum returns often exhibit little sensitivity. Value returns are typically lower in times of poor funding liquidity, whereas, with notable exceptions, momentum returns are typically unaffected. Lastly, for almost all countries, value returns are high in poor stock market liquidity conditions.     

Predictability of Emerging Market Local Currency Bond Risk Premia

This article investigates the source of predictability of emerging market (EM) local currency bond risk premia by using a dynamic factor approach based on a large panel of economic and financial time series. We find strong predictable variation in EM local currency excess bond returns that is associated with macroeconomic activity. We provide evidence that the main predictor variables are the factors based on real economic activity that are highly correlated with measures of industrial and manufacturing production; however, factors based on global financial factors also contain information about the future local currency bond returns. The predictive power of the extracted factors is both statistically significant and economically important. Our research has important implications for policymakers and pension fund managers.     

Regional vulnerability: The case of East Asia

In a case study of six East Asian economies, we use dynamic factor analysis to estimate a regional component of the exchange market pressure index (EMPI) as a measure of regional financial stress. The extent to which this indicator is explained by regional economic and financial factors is interpreted as regional vulnerability to crisis. We find that regional external liabilities and exuberance in domestic stock and credit markets, as well as the US high-yield spread, were positively correlated with regional vulnerability. Individual country EMPIs are also explained by regional factors, with country-specific factors and trade linkages playing little role.     

What Do We Know about Capital Structure? Some Evidence from International Data

We investigate the determinants of capital structure choice by analyzing the financing decisions of public firms in the major industrialized countries. At an aggregate level, firm leverage is fairly similar across the G-7 countries. We find that factors identified by previous studies as correlated in the cross-section with firm leverage in the United States, are similarly correlated in other countries as well. However, a deeper examination of the U.S. and foreign evidence suggests that the theoretical underpinnings of the observed correlations are still largely unresolved.     

Determinants of Profit Reinvestment by Small Businesses in Emerging Economies

We investigate the cross‐country key factors of profit reinvestment decisions using data compiled by the World Bank from over 7,000 businesses in 36 developing countries. We find that, compared to the security of property rights, it is a firm's access to external financing that plays an important role in a firm's reinvestment decision in emerging economies. The extent of private ownership and the firm's competitiveness are additional significant factors correlated with its reinvestment decision. Furthermore, we uncover a firm size effect in that the above factors driving firm reinvestment decisions appears to impact small firms more than relatively larger firms.     

VIX and liquidity premium

Previous studies find as the VIX goes up, the return and the Sharpe ratio on liquidity provision increase. We argue these two phenomena are correlated because they depend on the same fundamentals: investors’ risk aversion, asset variances and asset correlations. Our theoretical model shows (1) when investors are more risk-averse, they expect a higher return for providing liquidity, (2) when assets are volatile, liquidity shocks create stronger trading demands and thus liquidity demanders pay a higher premium, and (3) when assets are highly correlated, the higher risk of spillover of liquidity shocks across assets raises the price of liquidity. An increase in any of these three factors, besides increasing the expected return and the Sharpe ratio of liquidity providers, leads to a higher value for the VIX index. Our empirical analyses show that one standard-deviation increase in each of these three factors raise liquidity providers’ expected daily return (annualized Sharpe ratio) by 0.16%, 0.38% and 0.40% (0.82, 1.27 and 2.10 units), respectively.