上市公司财务预测信息虚假陈述民事责任若干问题研究

财务预测信息的本质是其内在的不确定性、模糊性和风险性。上市公司只有在符合重大性标准的财务预测信息披露时存在虚假陈述行为并由此造成投资者证券损失,才应承担相应的民事赔偿责任。上市公司财务预测信息(前瞻性信息除外)虚假陈述民事责任的归责,宜采用过错责任原则,并由原告承担举证责任。而对前瞻性信息虚假陈述民事责任的归责,宜采用过错责任原则的特殊形式——过错推定原则,实行举证责任倒置。财务预测信息虚假陈述民事责任免责制度的核心是建立适合中国证券市场现实的安全港规则。     

虚假陈述、内幕交易与操纵市场的民事归责原则

一、虚假陈述的民事归责原则"虚假陈述"是指负有信息公开义务的单位和个人,违反证券市场中的信息公开制度,对证券发行,交易以及相关活动的事实、性质、前景等事项陈述不实,严重误导或有重大遗漏陈述的行为。各国法一般规定,虚假陈述民事责任的相对人须为善意,即受害人须     

审计合谋与审计意见的关系:理论与证据

注册会计师在利益的驱动下丧失其应有的执业独立性,主动迎合被审计单位财务造假、提供虚假会计信息,对财务报告做出虚假鉴证与虚伪陈述.注册会计师往往通过对审计意见类型的操纵或变通处理来达到审计合谋的目的,通过对相关案例的剖析,找出审计合谋与审计意见类型之间的相关关系,并籍此对投资者理性分析财务报告信息提出警示.     

当前财务信息困境及破解思路

现在企业财务报表的编制和申报比较混乱,数据的真实性和有效性大打折扣,企业财务人员是有苦难言、尴尬无奈,有关部门是心照不宣、无能为力。当前财务信息虚假现象的大量存在,究其原因,一是利益需求使然,二是管理体系不健全,存在缺陷和漏洞。问题出在各部门各自为政,对财务信息的采集利用是各行其是。为此应建立统一的财务信息资源共享中心,统一进行管理,从而达到控制和平衡作用,进而大大提高财务信息的真实性和有效性。     

日本“西武铁道”虚假陈述案对我国证券法改革的启示——以虚假陈述损害额认定为视角

日本法院在2011年审结的"西武铁道"证券虚假陈述案中,明确了以"实际价值法"计算损害额、以民诉法248条的损害额认定制度填补非虚假陈述因素的计量困难、并体现出弱化虚假陈述实施日的特点。我国目前以《最高人民法院关于审理证券市场因虚假陈述引发的民事赔偿案件的若干规定》为依据计算虚假陈述损害额,存在如"系统风险"无法囊括非虚假陈述因素、诱多模型无法适应证券市场新变化、退市公司损害额认定不合理等问题。本文结合日本实践的可取之处和我国国情,试图探讨虚假陈述损害额认定制度的改革思路。     

我国上市公司财务报告法律责任的问卷调查及分析

本文报告了作者就虚假财务报告及其法律责任相关问题对投资者、法律界人士、监管人员、银行管理人员、注册会计师、上市公司高管人员等不同群体问卷调查的结果。我们的调查涉及我国上市公司信息披露的现状、虚假财务报告的认定、虚假财务报告的原因及其治理、虚假陈述法律责任的主体、最高人民法院司法解释关于虚假陈述法律责任的规定等五个方面,旨在了解上述群体对相关问题的基本看法,为完善有关法律,推进虚假陈述民事诉讼,维护资本市场的健康有序发展提供第一手资料。调查表明,关于虚假财务报告及其法律责任认定问题不同群体间存在较大分歧,现行责任认定和处罚制度尚存在诸多亟待明确或改进之处。本报告还在调查的基础上对这些问题进行了逐一分析。     

浅谈盈利预测报告的审核

盈利预测报告是指企业管理层在对未来经营业绩所作最佳估计假设的基础上编制的预测性财务信息。在实务中,企业在重大投资、申请贷款、IPO时需要披露盈利预测报告,委托审计师对企业盈利预测报告实施审核并出具报告,可增强报告的可信赖程度。本文以企业IPO为例,探讨审计师在盈利预测审核中应关注的若干问题。     

完善会计信息披露的思考

一、现行会计信息披露中存在的问题 第一，侧重反映过去的经济活动，缺乏预测信息；第二，会计核算方面存在着一定的局限性；第三，对或有事项的信息披露不完善，缺少非财务信息；第四，会计信息披露人员的整体素质偏低，故意提供虚假信息；第五，部分企业市场观念淡泊。     

证券预测信息“安全港”制度：美国经验与中国镜鉴

证券预测信息“安全港”制度是一种旨在鼓励上市公司积极披露预测信息的免责安排。美国预测信息“安全港”制度包括美国证券交易委员会规则、判例法规则和《1995年私人证券诉讼改革法案》规则三部分，三者之间既递进升级又各有侧重。尽管美国预测信息“安全港”制度不断发展，但实践中也引发了关于警示声明是否有效、责任豁免是否应考察披露人的主观状态、“安全港”制度是否放纵了信息披露违法等争议。《最高人民法院关于审理证券市场虚假陈述侵权民事赔偿案件的若干规定》创设了中国版的预测信息“安全港”制度，力图在鼓励预测信息披露和督促披露人规范、审慎披露之间取得平衡，但目前仍存在预测信息重大性标准尚待厘清、除外情形适用条件有待细化、行政和自律监管领域免责制度缺位等问题。优化我国预测信息“安全港”制度，可从完善以理性投资者为核心的重大性标准、明确免责条件适用安排和细节、构建行政和自律监管免责机制等方面探索。     

注册会计师与企业财务预测审核

所谓财务预测 ,是基于编制责任方的诚信 ,会计实体预期的财务状况、经营成果及财务状况变动情况。企业财务预测概念最早出现于１９４７年 ,美国的斯图加特莱斯在注册会计师年会上提出公司应编制财务预算并将它公开揭示出来。１９７５至１９８５的十年间 ,美国注册会计师协会（ＡＩＣＰＡ）先后发布了四份指导财务预测的文件 :《财务预测编制制度指南》、《财务预测揭示与说明———立场声明７５—４》、《财务预测检查指南》、《财务预测可行性研究报告》。随着各种预测财务信息在实际中的应用 ,信息使用者对预测信息的质量要求 ,使得ＡＩＣ…     

会计师事务所虚假陈述行政法律责任研究

会计师事务所被誉为证券市场的“经济警察”,其对被审单位审计报告关系到投资者的切身利益。会计师事务所在证券市场的虚假陈述行为不仅破坏了金融市场秩序同时还会引起投资者合法权益的损害,因此《证券法》规定了会计师事务所及注册会计师虚假陈述时因承担的民事责任和行政责任。然而,在现行法?律框架之下行政责任的认定往往是民事责任的前提,就我国目前实践而言,行政责任的认定存在诸多不足,注册会计师基于其专业性及公众的合理信赖而对审计业务负有合理的注意义务,法律要求注册会计师在从事审计义务时要勤勉尽责,故细化勤勉尽责义务、完善行政责任构成要件是研究会计师事务所虚假陈述法律责任的重点。     

Developing Confidence Intervals for Office Market Forecasts

This study focuses on the precision of models that forecast office construction and absorption. The article is novel because for the first time it applies Feldsteins (1971) technique for developing forecast standard errors in the presence of stochastic exogenous variables. The purpose of the article is not to find behavioral relationships but rather to evaluate forecasts. We find that in the case of many office markets, standard errors of long-term forecasts for absorption and completions are quite large, and therefore the forecasts themselves should not be used as a reliable basis for underwriting.     

Verzicht auf das Recht zur Arglistanfechtung in AGB/AVB – zur Rechtsprechung des BGH und ihrer Auswirkungen auf die D&O-Versicherung

The ruling by the BGH dated 21.09.2011 (VersR 2011, 1563, Heros-II) on the consequences relating on insurance law arising from the insolvency of the Heros Group raises the question as to the decision’s implications for D&O insurance. The Fourth Civil Senate, which is the competent court for insurance law, came to the conclusion that waiving one’s right to rescission on grounds of fraudulent misrepresentation, contractually agreed upon in advance, is incompatible with the intended protection of the right to self-determination expressed in §123 BGB, and is therefore invalid. Confirming a landmark decision by the Eighth Senate dated 17.01.2007, the ruling furthermore affects the rights of insured individuals: according to the BGH they lose coverage following the insurer‘s rescission on grounds of fraudulent misrepresentation (§334 BGB) since they only acquire rights to the extent designed by the policyholder. This article offers an introduction to the issue (Sects. 1, 2) and analyses the dogmatic derivation of the invalidity of the preemptive waiver on grounds of fraudulent misrepresentation (Sects. 3–5). Finally it explores whether the insurance coverage is required by law to be maintained for bona fide persons and whether a contractual agreement is possible.     

Analyst Earnings Forecast Revisions and the Pricing of Accruals

We investigate the relation between two market anomalies to provide insights into analysts role as information intermediaries. Prior research finds that accruals and analyst earnings forecast revisions predict future returns. We find that the accrual and forecast revision strategies generate hedge returns of 15.5% and 5.5% when implemented independently. Strikingly, a combined strategy that uses forecast revisions to refine the accrual strategy generates a hedge return of 28.5%. Firms with consistent accrual and forecast revision signals have less persistent accruals and earnings. We also find that accruals can be used to refine the forecast revision strategy—high accruals are associated with overoptimism in analyst forecasts. Our findings indicate that although forecast revisions reflect information about accrual and earnings persistence beyond that reflected in the level of current year accruals, investors do not fully incorporate this information into their valuation assessments.     

Forecasting stock price with the residual income model

The main purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a method to forecast stock price using analyst earnings forecasts as essential signals of firm valuation. The demonstrated method is based on the residual income model (RIM), with adjustment for autocorrelation. Over the past decade, the RIM has been widely accepted as a theoretical framework for equity valuation based on fundamental information from financial reports. This paper shows how to implement the RIM for forecasting and how to address autocorrelation to improve forecast accuracy. Overall, this paper provides a method to forecast stock price that blends fundamental data with mechanical analyses of past time series.     

Consumer Protection as Justification for Regulating Financial-Services Firms and Products

I first review regulations imposed to protect consumers of banking, securities, and insurance. Then I delineate and examine six regulatory goals: (1) to maintain consumer confidence in the financial system, (2) to assure that a supplier on whom consumers rely does not fail, (3) to assure that consumers receive sufficient information to make good decisions and are dealt with fairly, (4) to assure fair pricing of financial services, (5) to protect consumers from fraud and misrepresentation, and (6) to prevent invidious discrimination against individuals. In particular, I examine closely the rationale for the U.K. Financial Services Authority, created in 1998, because it might serve as a regulatory model. I conclude that capital regulation is useful for the second goal (failure), but regulations specific to financial services are neither necessary nor desirable for the other goals.     

Whistleblowers and Outcomes of Financial Misrepresentation Enforcement Actions

Whistleblowers are ostensibly a valuable resource to regulators investigating securities violations, but whether there is a link between whistleblower involvement and the outcomes of enforcement actions is unclear. Using a data set of employee whistleblowing allegations obtained from the U.S. government and the universe of enforcement actions for financial misrepresentation, we find that whistleblower involvement is associated with higher monetary penalties for targeted firms and employees and with longer prison sentences for culpable executives. We also find that regulators more quickly begin enforcement proceedings when whistleblowers are involved. Our findings suggest that whistleblowers are a valuable source of information for regulators who investigate and prosecute financial misrepresentation.     

Does Regulation Fair Disclosure affect analysts’ forecast performance? The case of restructuring firms

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate how the enactment of Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg. FD) influences analysts?? forecast characteristics for restructuring firms. The Reg. FD requires all firms disseminate material information not only to some institutional investors and certain financial analysts, but to all market participants simultaneously. We expect that the regulatory effect of Reg. FD on financial analysts?? forecast performance would be pronounced because of uncertain earnings signals and information complexity produced by restructuring activities. Particularly, we examine how the enactment of Reg. FD affects the relationship between analysts?? earnings forecast attributes and the occurrence and magnitude of restructuring charges. Our general finding is that analysts?? forecast errors and forecast dispersion have declined in the post-FD period for restructuring firms. However, such an impact cannot be persistent with an increase in the relative magnitude of restructuring charges, the proxy for restructuring complexity. This study provides additional evidence that Reg. FD has limited private information, and attempts to provide all users with the same access to information within the context of firms reporting restructuring charges.     

Die arglistige Täuschung des Versicherungsnehmers nach Eintritt des Versicherungsfalls – zugleich Beitrag zu §28 Abs. 3 S. 2 VVG –

The author adresses the differences in legal consequences of conditions subsequent to the insurance policy on the one hand and the self-contained legal implications of fraudulent misrepresentation prior to conclusion of the contract on the other hand. He suggests revising the narrowly defined causality criterion in order not to limit the legal consequences of false information given by the policy holder based on causal criteria. If so, legal consequences could be applied when the policy holder acted in bad faith. Then, he introduces the various case groups of willful misrepresentation using property insurance to illustrate them.     

The Association between Trading Recommendations and Broker-Analysts' Earnings Forecasts

This study examines analyst forecast errors within the context of stock recommendations. We predict positive forecast error (i.e., optimism) for buy recommendations and negative forecast error (i.e., pessimism) for sell recommendations. We offer two explanations for this prediction: (1) the unconscious tendency to process information in a manner that supports one's goal, which we refer to as the "objectivity illusion" hypothesis, and (2) the economic incentive to boost trade, which we refer to as the "trade boosting" hypothesis. The pattern of analyst forecast bias we predict (i.e., optimism for buys and pessimism for sells) is opposite in direction to that predicted by the management relations hypothesis—a commonly cited hypothesis for analyst forecast bias.
We find broker-analyst earnings forecast errors are significantly optimistic for buy recommendations and significantly pessimistic for sell recommendations, consistent with the objectivity illusion and trade boosting hypotheses. Our study indicates that the pattern of results reported in prior research (i.e., increasingly optimistic earnings forecasts as the stock recommendation becomes less favorable) is likely driven by a correlated omitted variable, actual earnings. Results of an analysis to distinguish between trade boosting and objectivity illusion appear more consistent with the objectivity illusion.