股权分置改革效果的实证分析

股权分置改革是我国资本市场的一次根本性改革,它使以往不能上市流通的股票获得可流通性,重建公司治理的共同利益基础,更好地实现国有资本的保值增值以及包括中小投资者在内的各方利益的共赢。本文通过对2006～2008年期间进行股权分置改革的部分上市公司进行统计,试图分析股权分置改革的市场效应以及次贷危机对改革的影响。得出如下结论:(1)股权分置改革的市场效果是积极的,能带给投资者显著的超额收益;(2)股改对价支付率和股东对方案的支持率与上市公司股票的市场效应呈显著正相关;(3)次贷危机严重影响了股权分置改革的市场效应。     

股权分置改革后我国股票市场财富效应研究

股权分置改革揭开了我国资本市场快速发展的序幕,股票市场正成为居民资产配置的重要场所,因此股市的财富效应成为政府宏观政策制定所考虑的重要因素之一,其对经济的影响也将日益加深.本文通过协整检验、Granger因果检验、VEC模型研究了股权分置改革后我国股市的财富效应.实证结果显示股改后我国股市财富效应开始显现,居民的消费受到股票市场的影响.     

上证50指数成分公司股权分置改革公告的效应研究

一、研究背景及意义2005年4月29日中国证券监督管理委员会发布《关于上市公司股权分置改革试点有关问题的通知》(以下简称“通知”),开始启动股权分置改革试点;5月9日清华同方等四家上市公司率先成为首批试点,拉开了股权分置改革的序幕;经过两批试点后,9月12日开始全面推进。截至2007年8月31日,A股中绝大多数上市公司已完成了股权分置改革。据统计,已有1161家公司完成股改,占应股改公司数量的90%,完成股改公司市值占总市值的比例已达到96%。股权分置是中国股票市场特有的现象之一,伴随着中国股票市场十五年的发展历程,其影响力和作用力日益显现。特别是2001年6月国有股减持,以及2002年6月停止减持国有股,股权分置问题一直困扰着中国股市,不时成为市场炒作的题材,甚至影响到股票市场主要功能的正常发挥。因此,股权分置改革作为一项重大的政策事件,无疑会对我国股票市场的发展和完善产生重大的影响;研究股票市场对股改如何反应,以及反应的类型和程度,无论对于市场监管者,还是对于市场参与者,都具有积极的现实意义。事件研究是基于有效市场假说的研究方法,依照有效市场的假设,在任何事件发生的瞬间,市场可以立即消化事件信息并将这种变...     

亲历股改

2005年4月29日启动股权分置改革，如一声春雷打破了中国股市15年来股权分置的坚冰。2005年10月26日，七喜控股股改方案获得相关股东会议通过，揭开了公司发展历史新的一页。     

股权分置改革：中国股市的飞跃之旅——股改进行时：全流通时代八大关注点

2005年4月29日，中国证监会发布《关于上市公司股权分置改革试点有关问题的通知》股权分置改革正式启动。一年来，一场从根本上推动中国证券市场发展的变革，使中国股市经历了一次飞跃之旅，获得了凤凰涅磐般的蜕变重生。时至今日，沪深两市大部分上市公司已完成或者进入股改程序，市场运行令人鼓舞，投资者信心逐步恢复，在股权分置改革一周年之际，     

股权分置改革与资本市场效率——基于三因子模型的实证检验

股权分置改革自实施以来就一直是人们关注的焦点,解决上市公司2/3非流通股的流通举措是否促进了资本市场的有效发展在理论和实务上都具有重要意义。本文选取截至1996年12月31日已上市的沪市A股为研究对象,以2005年4月29日为实质性股权分置改革分界点,分析比较股改前后三因子模型的市场拟合情况,并以此检验股权分置改革对市场效率改进的效果。实证结果显示:股权分置改革前后三因子模型在截距上全部无异于0,25组合均没有超额收益率,资本市场趋于有效;市场风险因子对股票组合收益率的解释度上升,规模SIZE及账市比BM值这二项公司层面因子对组合收益率的解释度也有所上升;相对于股改前,股改后的拟合系数R2上升幅度较大。这些结果都从实证角度支持了股权分置改革提升资本市场效率的重要贡献。     

八位经济学家激辩股改功过

韩志国:股改还未成功股权分置改革时间这么久了,现在重新来研讨股权分置改革,这说明我们在股市遇到了问题。股权分置改革走到现在还没有成功。     

市场估值体系的动荡与重建

股权分置改革的启动预示着中国股市已经走上了建立新市场制度的发展之路。在股权分置时代,流通股和非流通股的同时存在使得整个市场缺乏科学的估值标准,无法建立合理有效的估值体系。在股改完成之后,市场的估值标准将会发生根本性的变化,注重公司盈利能力的市场估值体系有望建立。本文从主体和客体两个方面研究股权分置改革之后市场估值体系变化的动因,重点对股权分置改革之后的市场估值体系做系统研究。     

论股权分置改革对上市公司股价的影响——基于沪市试点股改的40家上市公司数据的分析

股权分置对单个样本公司的波动性指标和流动性指标影响因公司而异,总体上在短期内(即股改前后30个交易日)这一影响不是非常显著,在较长的时期内,这一影响较之短期有显著提高;股改对样本公司价格发现和平均超额收益率有着明显的影响,它主要体现在样本总体平均超额收益率上,股改后的样本总体平均超额收益率明显低于股改前。     

基于关联交易大股东与企业价值关系的研究

<正>一、引言2005年启动的上市公司股权分置改革,是中国证券市场解决股权割裂问题的一次制度性变革。截至2006年12月31日,股权分置改革基本完成。各方对股改的预期正趋于稳定,股改的积极     

Volatility transmission between stock and bond markets

A two-factor no-arbitrage model is used to provide a theoretical link between stock and bond market volatility. While this model suggests that short-term interest rate volatility may, at least in part, drive both stock and bond market volatility, the empirical evidence suggests that past bond market volatility affects both markets and feeds back into short-term yield volatility. The empirical modelling goes on to examine the (time-varying) correlation structure between volatility in the stock and bond markets and finds that the sign of this correlation has reversed over the last 20 years. This has important implications far portfolio selection in financial markets.     

Short-Term External Debt and Foreign Exchange Rate Volatility in Emerging Economies: Evidence from the Korea Market

Abstract:

We empirically analyze the main determinants of foreign exchange rate (FX) volatility in emerging market economies using the data of Korea corporations and financial institutions. We find that short-term external debt is more important than trading volume of foreign investors in explaining FX volatility. Our results suggest that short-term debt-controlling measures, such as a tax levy on short-term borrowing, can be more effective in moderating FX volatility than can the measures affecting the trading volume, such as a Tobin tax.     

STOCK MARKET OPENNESS AND MARKET QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM THE SHANGHAI–HONG KONG STOCK CONNECT PROGRAM

We study the impact of capital market openness on high-frequency market quality in China. The Shanghai–Hong Kong Stock Connect program (SHHKConnect) opens China's stock market to foreign investors and offers a natural experiment to investigate this question. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that market liberalization leads to lower quoted spread, lower effective spread, lower market depth, and higher short-term volatility. Our findings imply that opening the markets to more sophisticated foreign investors is associated with higher competition and more cross-market arbitrage activities, narrowing the spread and reducing liquidity providers’ profits, but increasing the price impact and short-term volatility of connected stocks.     

Slow-moving capital and stock returns

This paper studies the effects that delay in capital allocations in the stock market and high short-term trading incentives have on returns of this market. We report that capital inertia makes the Sharpe ratio and the volatility of the stock returns many times higher than in an economy with no capital delays. Furthermore, in agreement with empirical literature, the stock price displays short-term overreaction and high volatility of the conditional Sharpe ratio.     

在岸与离岸人民币汇率动态研究——基于美元因素和套利因素的视角

在全球宏观环境背景下,研究在岸与离岸人民币汇率的联动机制可以为扩大我国金融市场对外开放、推动人民币国际化以及防范化解金融风险提供参考和理论依据。本文借鉴Verdelhan(2018)的研究,通过VECM-BEKK-GARCH模型研究了在岸与离岸人民币汇率间均值溢出效应和波动溢出效应中美元因素及套利因素的作用。结果发现:(1)“8·11”汇改后离岸人民币汇率对在岸人民币汇率的影响在均值溢出和波动溢出方面都显著上升,而在岸人民币汇率对离岸人民币汇率的波动溢出能力也开始出现,两个市场的一体性大幅提高;(2)美元因素和套利因素对在岸人民币汇率的影响越来越强,美元因素的影响依然要强于套利因素,这也基本符合前期研究中美元因素起主导作用的结论;(3)以美元因素和套利因素为代表的全球系统性变异因素会影响离岸市场向在岸市场的冲击传导以及在岸人民币市场向离岸人民币市场的波动传导。     

外汇期权信息含量与在岸离岸市场效率

央行在“8·11”汇改后放松了汇率中间价的管理,采用更为市场化的方式形成中间价,这种变化对于人民币汇率衍生品市场的影响尚属未知。为此,本文从人民币期权组合的Black-Scholes隐含波动率历史报价数据中提取出在岸、离岸市场人民币期权的无模型隐含波动率和风险中性偏度,在将样本划分为汇改前后三个不同的阶段的基础上,检验了期权隐含指标对未来汇率分布的预测能力。实证结果表明,在“8·11”汇改之后,随着人民币中间价形成机制变得更加市场化,期权价格中包含了越来越多关于未来汇率分布的信息,在岸和离岸期权市场的信息效率都有显著提高,意味着人民币中间价形成机制的市场化能显著提升我国金融市场效率。因此,在兼顾金融安全的角度上,稳步促进人民币中间价形成机制市场化进程将有利于我国金融市场效率的提高。     

Volatility spillover in the foreign exchange market: the Indian experience

We find evidence of significant volatility co-movements and/or spillover from different financial markets to the forex market in India. Among a large number of variables examined, volatility spillovers from domestic stock, government securities, overnight index swap, Ted spread and international crude oil markets to the foreign exchange market are found to be significant. There is evidence of asymmetric reactions in the forex market volatility. Comparisons between pre-crisis and post-crisis volatility indicate that the reform measures and changes in financial markets microstructure during the crisis period had significant impact on volatility spillover. During the post-crisis period, the lagged volatility component that represents persistent or fundamental changes had significant spillover effect on forex volatility, rather than the temporary shocks component. There is evidence of a decline in the asymmetric response in the forex volatility during the post-crisis period in India.     

The vicissitudes of stock markets and business cycles: focusing on the OIC region

The tremendous growth of emerging and developing markets brings forth new arenas of research. One untouched region is the study of business cycle comovements with stock market volatility within the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) member countries. The OIC comprises of several rapidly growing industries attracting several Foreign Direct Investments. The emerging nature of the markets and the rapid influx of Foreign Direct Investment bring about the question of how business cycles in the OIC member countries react to variations in the stock market. Taking 11 OIC member countries, we first derive their business cycle using the Christiano–Fitzgerald filter and then compare this to the decomposed (using wavelet) stock market volatility (using exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH)) representing two timescales, short-term and long-term, to see the impact of business cycle phases on short-term and long-term traders. We find for several of our countries that stock markets remain volatile during economic growth and increase in volatility during recession periods.     

Predicting the long-term stock market volatility: A GARCH-MIDAS model with variable selection

We consider a GARCH-MIDAS model with short-term and long-term volatility components, in which the long-term volatility component depends on many macroeconomic and financial variables. We select the variables that exhibit the strongest effects on the long-term stock market volatility via maximizing the penalized log-likelihood function with an Adaptive-Lasso penalty. The GARCH-MIDAS model with variable selection enables us to incorporate many variables in a single model without estimating a large number of parameters. In the empirical analysis, three variables (namely, housing starts, default spread and realized volatility) are selected from a large set of macroeconomic and financial variables. The recursive out-of-sample forecasting evaluation shows that variable selection significantly improves the predictive ability of the GARCH-MIDAS model for the long-term stock market volatility.