Explanatory factors of the inflation news impact on stock returns by sector: The Spanish case

We study the short run response of daily stock prices on the Spanish market to the announcements of inflation news at an industrial level, deepening the potential explanatory factors of this response (risk-free interest rate, risk premium and growth expectations). We observe a positive and significant response of the stock returns in case of “bad news” (total inflation rate higher than expected one) in recession, and also in case of negative inflation surprises (“good news”) in non-economic recession. This behaviour is consistent with the evolution of the company dividend growth expectations, since we observe that the relationship between this theoretical component of the stock price and the unexpected inflation, to a large extent, seems to explain the observed behaviour.     

Learning and the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank

This paper examines the welfare implications of alternative inflation targeting proposals for the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. We assume that policy makers have to “learn” the laws of motion of inflation in an economy characterized by “stickiness” in domestic price setting behavior and subjected to recurring shocks to productivity, exports and foreign price. We find that a switch from an “asymmetric” inflation targeting strategy to an “symmetric” makes little difference in welfare payoffs, but it comes at a cost of much higher interest-rate variability. We also find that there are practically no welfare gains from switching from an inflation-targeting strategy based on the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) to a strategy based on the domestic price component of the HICP.     

Price clustering in foreign exchange spot markets

This paper documents the existence of price clustering in the foreign exchange spot market for the German mark, the Japanese yen, the United Kingdom pound, the French franc, the Italian lira, and the Swedish krona. The U.S. dollar exchange rate indicative quotes for these currencies tend to exhibit clustering around right-most digits that end in either a “zero” or a “five.” The tendency for exchange rates to cluster has increased with increases in trading volume and volatility. Moreover, the tendency for exchange rates to cluster differs across currencies.     

Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Turkish Experience

Using a vector autoregression model, we show that the pass-through from imported inflation to domestic inflation has weakened substantially and slowed after the adoption of inflation targeting in Turkey. We argue that this finding is due mainly to several features—such as enhanced credibility of the central bank, changing behavior of the exchange rate, and a shift in expectation formation—possibly acquired by the implementation of a successful inflation-targeting regime. These observations suggest that adopting an inflation-targeting regime in itself may help to reduce exchange rate pass-through.     

The timing of exchange rate collapse

Recent episodes of exchange rate collapse have renewed interest in models of speculative attacks. These episodes have been considered by some observers to be inconsistent with “fundamentals” models of attack since there was no prolonged period of policy misalignment and declining reserves, as required by such models. This paper develops a fundamentals model in which collapse is instantaneous at the time of unexpected policy change and/or a change in the expectations of future policy, even for a reserve abundant country.     

Further evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations

This paper extends the limited work on interest rate expectations to a previously unexploited data set that covers a broad range of EMS and non-EMS foreign currency deposits. We corroborate the earlier finding in the literature that interest rate forecasts are not rational and that agents do not use all available information in an efficient manner; this finding applies to the post-1990 period, thus questioning the assertion of Frankel and Froot [Frankel, J.F., Froot, K.A., 1987a. Using survey data to test standard propositions regarding exchange rate expectations. American Economic Review 77, 151] that “the nature of the rejection of rational expectations strongly depends on the sample period”. Although forecast errors on EMS rates are smaller and less volatile than errors on non-EMS rates, expectations on EMS rates are nevertheless biased.     

Cournot model of brokered FX trading

This paper develops a Cournot model of rival dealers placing limit orders with a broker, who in turn makes a market by acting as a liaison between dealers. The broker's limit-book lists the various prices and quantities at which dealers are willing to exchange currency vis-à-vis electronic broking. The size and volatility of the inside spread is simulated relative to dealer entry–exit and the price elasticity of linear order arrival functions. Our simulations reveal non-linear price dynamics from dealer participation in market development, with an additional rival narrowing the inside spread by 1.82% while diminishing its volatility. These findings may shed some light on the “excess volatility puzzle” raised by Killeen, Lyons and Moore (forthcoming) as to why price behavior under flexible exchange rate regimes is significantly more volatile than macro fundamentals would suggest.     

Effect of derivative accounting rules on corporate risk-management behavior

I examine the effect of the accounting standard for derivative instruments (SFAS No. 133) on corporate risk-management behavior. I classify a derivative user as an “effective hedger” (EH firm) if its risk exposures decreased after the initiation of the derivatives program, and as an “ineffective hedger/speculator” (IS firm) otherwise. I find that volatility of cash flows and risk exposures related to interest rate, foreign exchange rate, and commodity price decrease significantly for IS firms but not for EH firms, suggesting that IS firms engaged in more prudent risk-management activities after the adoption of SFAS No. 133.     

Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?

This paper examines inflation indicators for the euro area by studying the relationship between inflation, output, money and interest rates, using data spanning 1980–2001. The central finding is that both the output gap and the real money gap (the difference between the real money stock and the long-run equilibrium real money stock) contain considerable information regarding future inflation. In contrast, the Eurosystem's money-growth indicator (the difference between nominal money growth and a reference value), the prominent “first pillar” in its monetary strategy, contains little information about future inflation, and no information beyond that contained in the output and real money gaps. The predictive performance of the output gap has improved compared to that in a previous version of this paper, most likely because of better estimation methods.     

World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race

This paper examines the foundation for two scenarios of the future depicting how human civilization might destroy itself and possibly bring about the extinction of the human race in the process. The scenarios are based upon the two human-generated “fires” deeply ingrained within industrial civilization: (1) the nuclear “fire” of tens of thousands of nuclear weapons and their automated “launch on warning” alert systems and (2) the slow burning “fire” of global warming and runaway climate change. This paper also examines obstacles that are currently preventing the necessary first steps towards solving these problems.     

Inflation accounting in a theory of calculation

How should we conceptualize the issue of inflation accounting? This is the problem raised and discussed in this paper. It represents a case study of the recent U.K. inflation accounting debate, but tries to set this within the context of how financial calculation more generally is organised and its social determinants. Two particularly distinctive features of the analysis are the ways in which this debate is related to the idea of financial calculation as “sign”, and the non-reduction of the “interests” located in the debate to expressions of some pre-given social position. Finally the wider implications of this non-orthodox approach are assessed.     

Accounting and the examination: A genealogy of disciplinary power

Historical elaboration of Foucault's concept of “power-knowledge” can explain both the late-medieval developments in accounting technology and why the near-universal adoption of a discourse of accountancy is delayed until the nineteenth century. It is the disciplinary techniques of elite medieval educational institutions—the new universities and their examinations—that generate new power-knowledge relations. These techniques embody forms of textual rewriting (including the new “alphanumeric” system) from which the accounting advances are produced and “control” is formalised. “Double-entry” is an aspect of these rewritings, linked also to the new writing and rewritings of money, especially the bill of exchange. By the eighteenth century accounting technologies are feeding back in a general way into educational practice (e.g. in the deployment of “book-keeping” on pupils) and this culminates in the introduction of the written examination and the mathematical mark. A new regime of “objective” evaluation of total populations, made up of individually “calculable” subjects, is thereby engendered and then extended — apparently first in the U.S. railroads — into modern comprehensive management and financial accounting systems (systems of “accountability” embodying Foucault's “reciprocal hierarchical observation” and “normalising judgement”), while written examinations become used to legitimate the newly autonomous profession of accountancy.     

Psychology, meaning and the challenges of longevity

Humankind has begun to reap one of the most valued harvests of its scientific and technological pursuits: a significant increase in human longevity. We now live longer than ever before, due in large part to advances in medicine and health care that provide those who have the opportunity to afford them a lifespan that for many approaches or exceeds the 100-year mark. It is now within the realm of possibility that people will live lives of 125 years or more within the next century. However, our ability to increase physical longevity may have outstripped our ability to deal individually and socially with these new lives, these new existences that go well beyond what has traditionally been considered a “working life”. How well-prepared are we psychologically to cope with the meaning of a life that extends to as much as 150 years or more? In this new “age of longevity”, what are the challenges for psychology as a resource for humanity in its quest to give definition to the experience of being alive, as well as for managing the affairs of everyday life? Traditional developmental theories in psychology tend to articulate early stages of life in detail, but are generally mute on the matter of later life. Cognitive psychology has been inclined to view longevity as leading to a deterioration of mental faculties due to “aging”. This paper examines the psychological implications of increased lifespans from an optimistic perspective by reviewing current developments in research on cognition, emotion and aging. The review identifies trends in psychology that, if emphasized and strengthened, may lead to improved theoretical frameworks that cast longevity in a positive light, and that identify how people can find meaning and fulfillment throughout their whole lifespan.

“Grow old along with me! The best is yet to be, The last of life for which the first was made.” Robert Browning “Rabbi Ben Ezra”

I first encountered Browning’s works as an undergraduate, and being a pre-engineering student at the time my tendencies toward poetry were stunted to say the best. Few of the great works of literature my teachers compelled me to read at that stage of my life and development made enough of an impact to last beyond the length of the course requiring their reading. Much has changed since then and my interests in literature and what literature has to say that is of value for our lives has deepened. But Browning’s enthusiastic call to join him in aging has always been a fascination. Indeed, what could be more of a contradiction to modern attitudes about becoming elderly than to claim “the best is yet to be”? What can be more of a challenge to how we approach the relationship between being young and being old than to claim that the last of life is “for which the first was meant”? What can the possible rewards of the golden years be that transcend the glorious enthusiasms, unfettered optimisms, and just pure physical conveniences of being young? Or, was Browning simply trying to sucker us all into a fait accompli, the hopeful outcome of which is the envy of the very youth that the aged often envy so much?There is little enough envy of the aged today. I approach these years with great caution, recognizing that how I look upon those who are two decades older than myself will, in turn, condition me to see myself in those years much in the way that I see them now. “Aging” is not something anyone really wants to do. We want to, at best, “grow older”, a perspective that carries with it a more positive spin: growing wiser, growing up, or simply “growing” with all of its new-age connotations of personal enlightenment and becoming. I am not “aging”, I am “becoming at one”.The language we have adopted to talk about the time-course of life, and particularly about the years in the latter third of that course, does much to frame both how we live those years and how we anticipate them in our youth. Our expectations are ones of decline, physical debilitation and mental infirmity. We “retire”, as in withdrawal into seclusion, away from the mainstream of life and into the backwater eddy of inaction. On the shelf.Much of this view has been reinforced by how humanity has approached examining this aspect of its own time course through science. We study aging with an eye to how its effects influence the abilities of those so afflicted to perform or operate compared to those who still have a grasp on their full faculties. And, of course, we find that as people grow older, they do not approach life in the same way as do younger people.Part of our view on life comes from the very way in which science is funded: those interested in the last of life often receive their support from the National Institute on Aging, not the National Institute on The Last of Life for Which the First Was Made. Research agendas often focus on identifying sources of infirmity and potential prostheses, either physical or social, that can ease the lives of the elderly on their way toward achieving the goal of successful aging. All too often, success in aging means imposing relatively few demands on social resources or on the lives of younger people, such as family members. In our “ageist” society, elderliness is not generally equated with status and stature. Less and less, the young “listen” to the old out of deep interest in their lives and their experiences. Wisdom is the providence of the freshly matured and recently educated.The shortcomings of life in the advancing years are many and well-documented in the research literature. Memory spans decrease, information retrieval becomes less reliable, and new information is less readily assimilated. As people become older, they appear to rely more and more on automatic processing of information, quick associations and the like, rather than deliberative and conscious reasoning [1]. For the older mind, intuition is at least moderately preferred over analysis. For example, younger people tend to interpret stories analytically, focusing on details, while older people tend to focus less on a story’s details and more on its “gist” and its underlying significance to things that are important to them [2], and tend to do better at grasping and dealing with information in terms of its holistic meaning [3 and 4].The effects of these differences in information processing between young and old can be seen in practical matters of everyday life, such as decision making and judgment. Johnson [5], for example, found that older adults use simplifying decision strategies more often than younger adults. These strategies, such as noncompensatory rules that consider only the positive or the negative aspects of a decision option but not both, relieve one of the psychological burden of making complex and effortful tradeoffs, at the possible expense of efficiency and accuracy. Chasseigne et al. [6] found that as people age, they become less consistent in their use of information in making judgments and predictions; even reducing the overall information load and demands on memory does little to improve the reliability of their judgments. ¹     

International taxation and intrafirm pricing in transnational corporate groups

Since early this century, with the introduction of direct taxes on income or profits by most developed capitalist states, tax authorities have been concerned to prevent manipulation of transfer prices between related firms, especially within transnational corporate groups (TNCs). By the 1930s most states had introduced a broad power to adjust such prices to conform with the “arm's length” criterion, since it was felt that either the application of national taxes directly to foreign parent or subsidiary companies, or taxation on a unitary or consolidated basis, would exacerbate overlapping or double taxation. However, both theory and a detailed examination of practice show that the arm's length criterion cannot in most cases be applied on the basis of “market” prices, since the raison d'être of an integrated firm is economies of scale and scope and generation of synergy profits. Microeconomic methods also can only identify these, but provide no basis for their allocation. Criteria for allocation of the costs and profits of an integrated TNC must have a political dimension: for the firm, it entails issues of strategy, and for the states, the control of oligopolistic powers over investment and allocation of the benefits of international economic integration. The tax authorities of the main OECD countries have developed close administrative co-operation through which these issues can be bargained on an ad hoc basis; but these bureaucratic and secretive methods lack the important element of legitimation. Formula apportionment based on unitary or consolidated accounts has been attacked as Utopian in the absence of a political basis for international agreement on principles or procedures. However, unitary taxation is now accepted (up to the water's edge) for U.S. state taxation, and either a unitary or consolidated basis is likely to become necessary in Europe: while formula allocation of fixed or overhead costs and a bargained division of profits has become the international practice. Still lacking are legitimating procedures and criteria.     

Monetary and financial stability in the euro area: Pro-cyclicality versus trade-off

This paper investigates the nexus between monetary stability and financial stability. We examine, in the experience of EMU between 1994 and 2008, first, the response of the term structure of interest rates, share prices, exchange rates, property price inflation and the deposit–loan ratio of the banking sector (our proxies for financial stability) to changes in the consumer price level and ECB policy rate (our proxies for monetary stability); second, whether and to what extent lower inflation has caused share price stability and how ECB policy rate has reacted to inflation. Using a sign-restriction-based VAR approach, we find that there is a pro-cyclical relationship between monetary and financial stability in the long-run. With a positive inflation shock, we find on average a 2% estimated decline in share prices. This suggests that the interest rate instrument used for inflation targeting is conducive to financial stability.     

Tick size, the compass rose and market nanostructure

Economists have begun using methods borrowed from the physical sciences to search for non-linearities in economic and financial data. The so-called phase portrait from chaos theory, in which the values of a time-series are plotted against their delayed values, is one of the techniques employed for this purpose. It has recently been shown, however, that when returns on traded assets are plotted in this manner in two- or three-dimensional space, surprising patterns arise which seriously distort the conclusions that can be drawn about the underlying data. These patterns – which resemble a compass rose – reflect the microstructure of the market or, more specifically, the finite size of the “ticks” by which prices can change in a market.The present paper clarifies the reason for this phenomenon. It is shown that within the microstructure there exists nanostructure that becomes visible only when the computations are performed without approximation. High frequency data from a foreign exchange market are used to illustrate this phenomenon.     

The spirit of capitalism, asset pricing and growth in a small open economy

Conventional models of economic behavior have failed to account for a number of observed empirical regularities in macroeconomics and international economics. This may be due to preference specifications in conventional models. In this paper, we consider preferences with the “spirit of capitalism” (the desire to accumulate wealth as a way of acquiring status). We analyze a number of potential effects of international catching-up and the spirit of capitalism on savings, growth, portfolio allocation and asset pricing. Moreover, we obtain a multi-factor Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Our results show that status concerns have non-trivial effects on savings, growth, portfolio allocation, asset prices and the foreign exchange risk premium.     

CRITICAL THEORY AND ACCOUNTING HISTORY: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

This paper briefly examines the contributions that postmodern (critical) research has made to the historical accounting literature and the opportunities that this new body of literature has created for traditional historical researchers. I suggest that the “new history” that has rendered the “familiar strange” has provided new understanding of our discipline that should be welcomed by all historians. The paper briefly examines two areas, the emergence of double entry bookkeeping and cost accounting, to demonstrate the new insights that critical historians have provided to what has been considered a settled agenda. I conclude by noting that the diversity critical research has added to the accounting history research should be celebrated, but caution that we not engage in the modernist strategy of trying to find a “certified path to knowledge.” Accounting history will be enhanced if our community adopts the values–tolerance, willingness to listen, and respect for alternative views–ithat have enabled researchers in other disciplines to flourish.     

Dispersion trading: Empirical evidence from U.S. options markets

This paper develops empirical evidence on the viability of a form of volatility trading known as “dispersion trading.” The results shed light on the efficiency with which U.S. options markets price volatility.Using end-of-day implied volatilities extracted from equity option prices for the stocks that comprise the S&P 500, the implied volatility of the S&P 500 is computed using a modification of the Markowitz variance equation. This Markowitz-implied volatility is then compared to the implied volatility of the S&P 500 extracted directly from index options on the S&P 500. These contemporaneous measures of implied volatility are then examined for exploitable discrepancies both with and without transaction costs. The study covers the period October 31, 2005 through November 1, 2007.It is shown that, from a trader's perspective, index option implied volatility tended to be more often “rich” and component volatilities tended to be more often “cheap.” Nevertheless, there were times when the opposite was true; suggesting that potential dispersion trades can run in either direction.