新形势下结构性减税政策取向探讨

2008年以来实施的一系列结构性减税措施为我国应对金融危机冲击、保持经济平稳较快发展作出了积极贡献。进入"十二五"发展时期,财税改革将为服务大局扮演非常重要的角色。本文盘点了2008年以来的结构性减税政策,从正反两方面分析了结构性减税政策的实施效果,并对新形势下结构性减税方案提供了政策建议。     

完善我国结构性减税的建议

国际金融危机爆发以来,我国政府及时采取了具有积极财政政策意义的结构性减税措施,在鼓励投资、扩大消费、促进就业、调整经济结构等方面发挥了重要作用,为我国应对金融危机冲击,促进经济持续平稳较快发展做出了积极贡献.本文首先界定了结构性减税的内涵,结合我国实际情况分析了实行结构性减税政策的原因,并提出了相应的政策建议     

关于当前实施结构性减税的若干政策建议

面对愈演愈烈的全球金融危机,为落实中央经济工作会议精神和温家宝总理关于实施结构性减税,减轻企业负担的重要指示,中国国际税收研究会邀请众多知名财税专家、学者组成课题组,收集分析了多个国家在应对金融危机、鼓励投资和刺激消费方面所采取的税收政策,在此基础上,提出了我国应对金融危机、扩大内需、实施结构性减税的具体政策建议。现予刊载,以飨读者。     

对我国结构性减税政策的效果分析

结构性减税政策是2008年全球金融危机发生后,我国实施新一轮积极财政政策中的重要内容。实施结构性减税,既是我国促进经济稳定增长的有效手段,也是我国优化税制结构的重要途径。本文梳理了我国自2008年以来结构性减税的基本情况并对其效果进行了评价,对未来我国结构性减税政策优化的方向提出了政策建议。     

金融危机背景下结构性减税政策分析研究

自2008年起,我国外有国际金融危机的冲击,内有税收收入增速远超GDP增速的经济失调.为了应对国际金融危机,也为了减轻居民、企业的税收负担,我国果断做出实施新一轮积极财政政策的决定.与上一轮积极财政政策相比,此次政策更加注重税收的调节作用,本文着重分析了近年来结构性减税政策的主要措施与效果,并对我国继续实施结构性减税政策提出了具体设想,以期为减轻我国居民税负及实现十八大提出的国民收入倍增计划提供一些借鉴.     

实施结构性减税政策是保持经济社会平稳发展的关键之举

2008年下半年以来,为有效应对国际金融危机冲击,我国实施了一系列涉及范围广、作用力度大、针对性强的结构性减税政策,累计减税措施70多项,涉及十几个税种,每年减税规模达数千亿元,对提高资源配置效率、改善供求关系、优化产业结构、保障和改善民生起到了积极作用。2012年,国家在继续实施2008年下半年以来出台的一系列保增长、扩内需、调结构、惠民生的结构性减税政策基础上,针对经济社会发展的新情况,按照稳中求进的总基调,进一步完善结构性减税政策,既保持了政     

结构性减税对产业结构升级的影响及政策建议

转变经济发展方式、推进产业结构升级是我国应对国际金融危机、促进经济平衡较快发展的必由之路。税收是国家调控经济的重要工具,结构性减税是我国当前税制改革的重要内容。本文首先阐述了产业结构升级的重要意义,分析了我国推行结构性减税的可行性与必要性,进而讨论了结构性减税对产业结构升级的影响,并为我国通过结构性减税促进产业结构升级提出了政策建议。     

结构性减税与1929年美国增税政策的比较研究

作为应对全球金融危机的财税政策,2008年12月中央经济工作会议提出实行结构性减税,优化财政支出结构。目前,各项政策作用正在逐步显现。但对结构性减税这一创新性的应对政策社会上还有     

继续落实结构性减税政策

2008年下半年以来，为应对国际金融危机冲击，我国政府及时果断地采取了一系列保持经济平稳较快发展的政策措施，其中很重要的一项，就是实施结构性减税政策。一年多来，实施结构性减税政策取得显著成效。全面推行增值税转型改革，促进技术进步和技术改造，增强了企业投资的积极性。提高工资薪金所得费用扣除标准，对储蓄存款利息所得暂免征收个人所得税，     

结构性减税对产业结构优化升级的效应分析

自2008年金融危机以来,结构性减税作为国家应对经济通缩的一项政策,一直是国家财税部门、企业民众等社会各界共同关注的话题.而产业的结构性矛盾也是我国在实现工业信息化道路上亟待解决的问题.本文在梳理结构性减税政策的基础上,着重分析了这一政策对解决产业结构性矛盾、推进产业结构优化的作用.     

宏观审慎政策协调能否抑制国际性银行危机传染？——基于跨境金融关联视角的实证研究

本文基于跨境金融关联视角对宏观审慎政策能否抑制国际性银行危机传染这一重要的理论与实践问题进行了实证研究。选取亚洲金融危机和全球金融危机时期遭受冲击的10个代表性国家作为样本,构建Logit模型和多元回归模型探讨本国及具有金融关联的国家协调实施宏观审慎政策对本国系统性银行危机传染的影响。研究表明,具有金融关联的国家出现金融危机会显著增加本国系统性银行危机的发生概率,具有金融关联的国家实施宏观审慎政策对本国信贷的影响比对房价的影响更明显,本国及具有金融关联的国家协调实施宏观审慎政策会显著降低本国系统性银行危机的发生概率。在调整银行危机指标及考虑贸易关联和流动性风险的影响后,研究结果依然保持稳健。本文的研究结论揭示了加强宏观审慎政策协调有助于维护全球金融稳定,对于中国政策当局强化宏观审慎管理具有极其重要的政策含义。     

State owned banking: gaining policy support and investor interest

State owned banking has staged a major comeback. Finding a place among the top 25 banks in the world in terms of market cap and assets apart, state owned banks have emerged as hot stocks for domestic and international investors. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, privatization of the financial sector, which has been the major policy thrust evident in numerous countries, took a backseat with governments taking over banking institutions and providing various forms of support ranging from capital injections to outright nationalization of the global banks adversely affected by the crisis. The current crisis also may encourage governments to keep their stakeholding in the public banks in view of the need to support the vital sectors of the economy and also pursue financial inclusion that emerged as a major policy priority. This article presents a brief perspective on the comeback of the state owned banking, and also its own transformation that led to its growing acceptance and endorsements from policymakers investors and customers.     

IMF programs, financial and real sector performance, and the Asian crisis

This paper has three objectives. First, using a richer and more comprehensive set of IMF-related news than previous studies, we examine the impact of IMF-related news on both financial and real stock sector returns in Indonesia during the Asian crisis. Second, we draw lessons about financial and real sectoral patterns of adjustment in crisis countries, including whether and how IMF programs facilitate this adjustment. Third, we explore the interplay between IMF actions in crisis countries and the actions and responses of local authorities. To do so, not only do we account for the impact of news regarding IMF policy actions but also the government’s reaction to them and willingness to implement such policies, and the public sentiment about the implemented IMF programs and government policies. We discuss the policy implications of the findings.     

Macroprudential policy in the EU: A political economy perspective

In response to the lessons of the global financial crisis, macroprudential policy is now firmly established as a financial policy area to prevent excessive risk taking in the financial sector and mitigate its effects on the real economy. However, macroprudential policy is facing several challenges relating to its political sensitivity and institutional context. These include political and interest group resistance, weaknesses in the governance framework, and limited institutional memory among policy makers. This article seeks to contribute to the contextual understanding of macroprudential policy by exploring how factors relating to these challenges influence policy in the EU. More specifically, it develops and empirically tests a number of hypotheses on how wider institutional and structural factors influence the actual use of macroprudential measures across Europe. The findings yield considerable support for theoretical predictions that institutions and contexts matter - Political pressure and interest group resistance tend to influence the intensity of macroprudential policy stances. Weaker policy stances characterise countries where banking systems depend on domestic banks, whereas the opposite holds for financial systems with significant market shares of other financial intermediaries. Results on institutional arrangements show that governance arrangements on relating to transparency influence policy stances. The results also indicate that policy makers' inertia is best counteracted by appointing a single macroprudential authority. The results differ somewhat depending on whether countries are based in the Euro zone or not. This suggests that policy frameworks that are multi-layered and complex pose tricky conundrums on how to ensure sufficient institutional autonomy, policy capacity and discretion among macroprudential authorities. This also has implications on other policy areas macroprudential policy, such as microprudential policy, crisis management and fiscal policy.     

金融危机中我国经济政策选择的反思

自2008年全球金融危机以来,面对严峻的形势,世界各主要经济体纷纷采取了应对危机的政策.然而,各国在总需求下降这个一致现象的背后,明显存在着重要的差别.例如,美国的经济危机首先从金融体系开始,而中国的危机是从出口下降开始.所以我国用和世界基本完全保持一致的扩张性财政政策和货币政策来应对危机,使后来的经济发展出现了一系列的问题.论文运用宏观经济学的基本理论,对金融危机中我国采取政策进行分析,从而说明在此后经济发展过程中出现问题的原因.     

世界各国宏观审慎政策框架模式研究

2008年金融危机后,为有效应对金融体系的系统性风险,各国均根据各自的国情构建宏观审慎政策制度框架。借鉴他国的政策经验,对于增强我国的宏观审慎管理能力有着现实的意义。本文在总结归纳个世界各主要国家宏观审慎政策制度框架发展趋势、特点以及补偿机制的基础上,得出对我国宏观审慎管理的启示并提出相应建议。     

Monetary policy spillovers and the trilemma in the new normal: Periphery country sensitivity to core country conditions

We investigate why and how the financial conditions of developing and emerging market countries (peripheral countries) can be affected by the movements in the center economies – the U.S., Japan, the Eurozone, and China. We apply a two-step approach. First, we estimate the sensitivity of countries' financial variables to the center economies [policy interest rate, stock market prices, and the real effective exchange rates (REER)] while controlling for global and domestic factors. Next, we examine the association of the estimated sensitivity coefficients with the macroeconomic conditions, policies, real and financial linkages with the center economies, and the level of institutional development. In the last two decades, for most financial variables, the strength of the links with the center economies have been the dominant factor while the movements of policy interest rate also appear sensitive to global financial shocks around the emerging market crises of the late 1990s and since the global financial crisis of 2008. While certain macroeconomic and institutional variables are important, the arrangement of open macropolicies such as the exchange rate regime and financial openness are also found to have direct influence on the sensitivity to the center economies. An economy that pursues greater exchange rate stability and financial openness faces a stronger link with the center economies through policy interest rates and real effective exchange rate (REER) movements. We also find that exchange market pressure (EMP) in peripheral economies is sensitive to the movements of the center economies' REER and EMP during and after the global financial crisis. Open macro policy arrangements, especially exchange rate regimes, also have indirect effects on the strength of financial linkages, interacting with other macroeconomic conditions. Thus, trilemma policy arrangements, including exchange rate flexibility, continue to affect the sensitivity of developing countries to policy changes and shocks in the center economies.     

Capital and credit market integration and real economic contagion during the global financial crisis

This study investigates the role of financial integration in the spread of global financial crisis. In particular, this study shows how the effect of the crisis on real business cycle co-movement varied for capital and credit market integration, using a sample of 58 countries in 2001–2013. During the global financial crisis, the United States – the epicenter of the crisis – experienced a severe downturn in the real economy, and other countries followed suit. We find that during the global financial crisis, the business cycle co-movements between the United States and the rest of the world were stronger when the level of capital market integration between them was higher. However, the co-movements were weaker when the level of credit market integration was higher. These findings are robust even when including investment channels, local fundamental factors, endogenous policy responses across countries, and alternative measures for financial integration and business cycle co-movements.     

Does the ECB act as a lender of last resort during the subprime lending crisis?: Evidence from monetary policy reaction models

We investigate whether the ECB aligns its monetary policy with financial crisis risk in EMU member countries. We find that since the outbreak of the subprime crisis the ECB has significantly increased net lending and reduced interest rates when banking and sovereign debt crisis risk in vulnerable EMU countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) increases, while no significant effect is identified for the pre-crisis period and relatively tranquil EMU countries (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, and the Netherlands). These findings suggest that the ECB acts as a Lender of Last Resort for vulnerable EMU countries.     

Is there an alternative way to avoid another eurozone crisis to the Five Presidents' Report?

The EU Commission's Five Presidents' Report proposes new rules for the eurozone covering fiscal policy, banking and financial markets designed to avert another eurozone crisis. This paper examines the causes of the current eurozone crisis and discusses whether the Report's proposals are likely to succeed. It is argued that the main causes of the crisis were EMU and the failure of financial markets to price risk correctly. It is claimed that the Report may not solve these problems. Having already lost their monetary policy instrument, the Report's fiscal proposals would remove countries' fiscal policy instrument too and deprive countries of the means of economic stabilisation. The proposals would also transfer to an undemocratic and unaccountable Commission important national competences.