投资者注意力、应计误定价与盈余操纵

基于应计误定价视角,以投资者认知特征分析为切入点,本文检验了投资者注意力、应计误定价及盈余操纵间的关系。研究发现:(1)投资者注意力具有认知效应,投资者注意力的提高能够显著提高其对盈余构成信息的认知效率,并降低市场中投资者对应计信息的定价高估;(2)投资者注意力具有治理效应,即投资者对股票的充分注意能够显著降低管理层主观的盈余操纵行为。综合而言,投资者注意力具有"认知效应"和"治理效应",投资者注意力调节了投资者的认知效率并提升了对会计盈余构成信息的定价效率,进一步影响了管理层主观的盈余操纵行为。深化投资者注意力的研究具有很高的理论价值和现实意义。     

会计信息质量、机构持股与应计异象

以2012—2015年深市A股上市公司为研究样本,基于信息成本、行为金融、委托代理等理论,运用Mishkin检验、线性多元回归方法,检验了应计异象的存在性,验证了机构持股、会计信息质量对应计异象的影响。研究表明,深市总体存在应计异象,并且机构持股的高低对应计异象产生不同影响,机构持股比例高的公司比机构持股比例低的公司的应计异象程度低。进一步研究显示,会计信息质量对机构持股与应计异象的关系的影响存在差异,对低机构持股公司的影响更加显著。研究有助于减少应计项目的错误定价,提高资本市场定价的准确率,有利于投资者充分理解盈余信息,加强投资者利益保护。     

证券市场“应计异象”研究：回顾与展望

国际会计准则理事会以及美国财务会计准则委员会都以决策有用性作为会计的首要目标,而会计则是通过权责发生制下的会计应计采实现这一目标的。那么投资者对会计应计的理解就应该成为准则制定的参考因素之一。自从Sloan(1996)在美国市场上发现了投资者高估会计应计的持续性之后,大量的文献时这一现象进行了探讨。本文系统地回顾了这些文献,并对其进行了展望,以便为中国资本市场的应计异象研究以及中国会计准则的制定提供参考。     

中国上市公司盈余和盈余构成的错误定价——来自A股市场的经验证据

A股公司盈余（EARN）和盈余构成（应计盈余ACC和现金盈余CFO）的错误定价与成熟资本市场并不完全一致。一致的地方在于确实存在“应计异象”。不一致的地方在于“应计异象”的相对性。在分年度的检验中，EARN、ACC和CFO的错误定价方向一致，CFO和EARN的错误定价程度基本相同，相对于CFO的错误定价程度，ACC被高估——出现高估的时候，ACC被高估的程度更大；出现低估的时候，CFO被低估的程度更大。一个简单的模型表明，由于这种相对的高估，ACC和CFO的错误定价可以出现三种组合。     

新准则下我国A股的应计异象存在性研究

会计利润由会计应计和经营现金流组成，但两者之间存在差异。如果投资者不能区分两者之间的差异，会高估应计部分的持续性．从而高估盈利和股价，即产生所谓的应计异象。本文检验了新会计准则施行后我国资本市场上应计异象的存在性。研究结论为：第一，总体看我国A股存在显著的应计异象。但各年的情况各不相同，以2009—2010年尤为明显．．第二．对我国A股市场的应计异象需要视具体情况分别进行分析。另外，研究还发现，在样本期内，A股公司的市场规模与其超额回报显著负相关。     

增长、盈余管理和应计持续性

本文首先沿用了Sloan（1996）的方法，研究中国上市公司是否存在盈余的应计成分持续性低于盈余现金流成分的现象，然后试图分离增长和盈余管理对应计成分持续性的影响，在对混合样本回归中发现，增长的均值回归过程对应计成分低持续性的解释能力强于盈余管理。我们发现。当期和下一年管理者的盈余管理行为都对盈余和应计持续性有显著的影响，当期非正常应计无论是正是负都将降低应计的持续性，而下一期非正常应计如果为正则会增加应计的持续性，如果为负则会降低应计的持续性。我们还发现，当期正的正常应计对应计持续性具有正向的影响，这似乎与一般常识相悖。我们试图以企业的存货行为来解释这一现象。但我们的假设只得到了部分实证证据的支持。     

基于股价同步性视角的应计错误定价的再检验研究

<正>应计错误定价(Accruals Mispricing),即指市场对会计应计项目所反映的企业信息进行了错误定价,描述了会计应计与公司股价之间的某种关联,许多学者也称之为应计异象(Accrual Anomaly)。因其有效地将会计学理论与金融学理论融合共同解释经济现象,进一步拓展资本市场会计研究的领域,而倍受国内外学者关注。根据理论解释和影响程度的不同,应计错误定价研究可分为持续观、投资增长观和其他理论解释三大类。国外文献主要集中于前两类理论解释的研究(Sloan,1996;Collins和Hribar,2000:Xie,2001;Pincus、Rajgopal和Venkatachalam,2007等),部分学者也对应计错误定价的代理成本观、套利限制观和非误定价观等其他理论解释     

分析师对于盈余构成信息市场定价效率的影响分析

本文通过研究基于应计利润信息和分析师调整盈利预测信息构建组合的对冲收益,来分析市场对盈利构成信息的定价效率以及分析师在信息传导过程中的作用。研究发现,从整体样本来看,国内上市公司的应计利润并不会显著降低净利润的持续性,但是分析师能够有效识别那些因为极端应计利润而显著降低净利润持续性的公司,市场会在定价中对其发出的一致性信号做出反应。分析师提升了市场对应计利润信息的定价效率,但是信息反应速度较慢。     

中国上市公司配股定价问题探讨

根据配股过程中的股东利益的变化,对全流通和股权分置条件下的配股定价分别建立数理模型进行分析,建立了不同条件下的配股定价模型,求得对应的合理定价区间,并据此对2003-2005年配股的44家公司进行了实证研究,验证了我国配股定价普遍高估的结论,并发现市场对定价高估具有一定的识别能力.     

资产负债项目可靠性、盈余持续性及其市场反应

本文将资产负债项目的可靠性和盈余的持续性相联系,并探讨资本市场能否解读这种联系。首先,理论分析表明可靠性更差的资产负债项目导致盈余的持续性更低。其次对应计项目进行分类并评价其可靠性。最后,证据表明,更不可靠的应计项目导致盈余的持续性更低,并且资本市场没有充分预期到这种联系从而作出错误反应。这些结果说明,在财务报表中确认可靠性更低的应计项目会导致更大的成本,相关性的获得不应以牺牲可靠性为代价。     

投资者关注与分析师评级漂移——来自中国股票市场的证据

本文使用一个直接源自于投资者行为的新颖变量——财经互动社区的超额发帖量——作为投资者关注的代理变量,发现投资者关注可以用来解释分析师评级的漂移现象,即针对分析师评级变动,股价的立即反应随着投资者关注的增加而增强,股价的漂移随着投资者关注的增加而减弱,同时发现投资者关注对股票交易量具有显著正向的作用。     

Pricing and Mispricing Effects of SFAS 131

Abstract:  We investigate the effects of the introduction of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 131 (SFAS 131) on the market's valuation of foreign earnings. Thomas (1999) documents that investors discount the value of foreign earnings for US multinational companies. He conjectures but does not test the possibility that this finding is due to poor disclosure related to foreign operations. We find strong evidence that the introduction of the standard is positively associated with the pricing of foreign earnings. In addition, we use both the Mishkin (1983) test and a zero-investment hedge portfolio test and find that investors' mispricing of foreign earnings lessens (and in fact disappears) after SFAS 131. This study is one of the first attempts to show that improved disclosure reduces mispricing.     

IPO限价发行与新股二级市场价格泡沫——论股票市场“弹簧效应”

本文通过对比2009年7月1日至2014年6月30日IPO市场化定价发行阶段与2014年7月1日至2018年6月30日IPO限价发行阶段共1950个IPO样本,发现IPO限价发行对于新股在二级市场股价表现具有“弹簧效应”:即抑制股票一级市场发行价格会造成新股在二级市场价格短期内超涨,限价发行新股的二级市场定价显著高于市场化定价发行新股的二级市场定价。限价发行引起的过高二级市场定价最终导致股票长期回报率低下。另外,创业板公司“弹簧效应”显著强于主板公司。这些实证结果都可以被本文提出的一级市场价格压抑造成二级市场非理性投资者上涨预期一致、盲目追涨的理论模型所解释。本文的研究指出抑制股票一级市场定价虽然形式上可以解决新股发行价过高问题,但是却造成二级市场更大的价格扭曲。这一发现为进一步完善我国IPO发行定价机制提供了依据。     

Analyst cash flow forecasts and pricing of accruals

This paper investigates how analyst cash flow forecasts affect investors' valuation of accounting accruals. We find that the strength of the accrual anomaly documented in Sloan (1996) is weaker for firms with analyst cash flow forecasts, after controlling for idiosyncratic risk, transaction costs and firm characteristics associated with the issuance of cash flow forecasts. We further show that this reduction in mispricing of accounting accruals is at least partially attributed to the improved ability of investors to price earnings manipulations imbedded in accruals. We investigate several non-mutually exclusive alternative explanations for this improvement in investors' ability and demonstrate that the increased investor attention and the improved accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts both contribute to the mitigation of the accrual anomaly.     

信息不对称、过度自信与股价变动

信息传导的非同步和投资者情绪变化是股票市场的两个典型特征,前者会引发投资者之间出现信息不对称问题,后者主要体现为投资者过度自信,两者共同作用影响股票价格变动。本文将信息不对称和投资者过度自信情绪置于同一个分析框架,建立两阶段动态序贯定价理论模型研究现实市场上信息传导过程中股价变动的内在机制。结果表明:(1)面临新信息的进入,投资者对股票收益预期的调整与均衡价格之间具有正相关关系;(2)面临有利消息时,过度自信投资者比例越大,股票的均衡价格越高,投资收益将越低;面临不利消息时则相反;(3)随着过度自信投资者比例以及过度自信程度升高,市场风险溢价将下降;(4)投资者群体在信息传导过程中出现分化,对股价变动形成异质信念,未获取信息和获取信息但未出现过度自信的投资者认为股价被高估,获取信息且出现过度自信的投资者认为价格被低估,促使更多的交易,引发市场成交量和股价变动;(5)过度自信投资者比例与过度自信程度提高均会对市场效率产生正向影响,而对市场深度具有负向效应。最后,基于理论结果对非对称性和持续性等典型的市场波动性特征进行解释。     

Where are the sources of stock market mispricing and excess volatility?

Using a simple dividend model, we illustrate and synthesize the sources of stock market mispricing and excess volatility based upon two hypotheses—inflation illusion and heterogeneous beliefs. Our theoretical framework posits that equity mispricing arises when investors have subjective expectations about discount rates or dividend growth rates. We then analyze the sources of equity mispricing and market excess volatility under a VAR framework. Empirically, we find that both inflation illusion and heterogeneous beliefs explain equity mispricing. However, heterogeneous beliefs play a more important role in explaining stock mispricing in the long run. We also find that heterogeneous beliefs cause excess volatility, but inflation illusion does not. Therefore, dispersion in investors’ beliefs is a better explanation of stock market mispricing than the investors’ inability to properly discount future cash flows.     

Arrogance can be a virtue: Overconfidence,information acquisition,and market efficiency

In behavioral finance, overconfidence has been established as a prevalent psychological bias, which can make markets less efficient by creating mispricing in the form of excess volatility and return predictability. In this paper, we develop a model in which overconfidence causes investors to overinvest in information acquisition when this information could improve market efficiency by driving prices closer to true values. We study the impact of overconfidence on mispricing and information acquisition, comparing their net effect on prices. We derive several novel implications. First, overconfidence generally improves market pricing provided the level of overconfidence is not too high. Pricing can also improve even when overconfidence is arbitrarily high, depending on the amount of private information acquired relative to publicly available information.     

THE RELATION BETWEEN OPTION MISPRICING AND VOLUME IN THE BLACK-SCHOLES OPTION MODEL

We investigate the relation between mispricing in the Black-Scholes option pricing (BSOP) model and volume in the option market. Our results indicate heavily traded call options are priced more efficiently and have lower mispricing errors than thinly traded options. However, this relation shifts significantly on days when call option trading is high. On high-volume days, the BSOP model mispricing errors are significantly larger than mispricing errors on normal-volume days. We believe large increases in volume may reflect new and changing market information, thus making pricing less efficient in the BSOP model.     

Are conditional illiquidity risks priced in China? A cross-sectional test

In this study, we theoretically derive conditional illiquidity risks from the conditional liquidity-adjusted capital asset pricing model (CLCAPM) that we propose by incorporating funding illiquidity into the LCAPM, and we examine whether they are priced empirically in China's A-share market. We provide new evidence of the positive premiums of conditional illiquidity risks even after controlling for mispricing signals and sentiment. The finding suggests that conditional illiquidity risk could be an alternative channel to explain the cross-section of stock returns. Moreover, investors could obtain higher premiums as compensation for their tolerance of more highly conditional illiquidity risks during high market volatility (low market returns) periods.