上市公司盈余预告择时披露策略及市场反应研究——基于股票市场波动的视角

盈余预告研究一直是学者们关注的重点领域,其披露规律也是学术界重要谜团之一。本文提出影响盈余预告披露的新机制——股市的波动性,并借此为特有的研究场景来观测管理层择时披露行为。本文以2003-2015年管理层盈余预告披露的上市公司为样本,实证检验上市公司管理层是否会利用股票市场的高频波动来选择盈余预告信息披露的时机及该策略的实施效果。研究发现:公司管理层盈余预告披露决策会隐性观察市场的波动态势及其幅度,基于披露法定的时滞裁量空间,利用短期市场行情波动性选择较优的披露时机。具体体现在管理层倾向选择市场行情上升期披露更多坏消息,在市场行情下降期披露更多好消息;与不使用该策略的公司相比,使用该策略的公司能获得更好市场反应。     

董事高管责任保险、公司信息披露与高管减持

资本市场频现的减持可能出于高管自利性动机从而破坏市场公平交易,因而迫切需研究其治理机制。本文基于2007～2018年A股上市公司数据实证发现,公司购买董事高管责任保险(简称“董责险”)能显著抑制高管减持,该结论经PSM、工具变量等检验后保持稳健。进一步分析表明,第一,信息披露机制厘清了董责险能有效减弱高管的相对信息优势并抑制其出于自利性动机的减持行为;第二,董责险会增加高管减持成本并降低其自利倾向;第三,董责险抑制高管减持的作用在外部审计和法律监督较弱时更为显著,表明董责险是对公司外部治理机制的有效替代;第四,安慰剂检验显示,董责险能抑制高管而非大股东的减持,《证券法》修订和股份解禁的制度性冲击也表明,董责险主要针对高管自利性动机减持而非流动性管理动机减持发挥治理作用。基于保险机构作为利益相关者参与公司治理的视角,本文揭示了高管减持的制约机制,并有助于增进对董责险治理效应的认识。     

机构投资者持股、盈余管理与市场反应

由于会计信息的专业性,个人投资者往往难以从会计数据中识别盈余管理;而作为投资专家的机构投资者能否识别盈余管理,并将其融入到市场价格机制中则成为人们关注的焦点。通过检验机构投资者持股对公司股票累计超额报酬率和盈余管理之间关系的影响,研究发现:机构投资者持股较高的股票的超额报酬率与正向操纵性应计利润显著负相关,说明机构投资者股东能从会计信息中识别公司的盈余管理行为,并将其反映到市场价格机制中去。     

高管人数、信息披露与债务融资成本

融资难、融资成本高是社会关注的焦点,高管作为公司经营战略的决策者,其团队特征是影响公司融资成本的重要因素。通过构建回归模型,并以2011年-2021年沪深A股上市公司为样本,探讨高管人数对公司债务融资成本的影响及作用路径。研究表明,高管人数与公司债务融资成本显著负相关,信息披露是高管人数影响公司债务融资成本的中介变量;相比于国有企业,高管人数对民营企业债务融资成本的影响更为显著。     

高管薪酬差距、大股东持股与研发投入

笔者基于研发投入的视角,实证检验了高管薪酬差距的经济后果,并探究大股东持股发挥的调节作用。通过研究发现,一方面,高管薪酬差距可以增加企业的研发投入;另一方面,大股东持股在高管薪酬差距与企业研发投入关系中发挥了负向调节作用。进一步研究发现,高股权制衡度可以缓解大股东持股在“高管薪酬差距-研发投入”关系上的负向调节作用。     

媒体监督、高管特征与环境信息披露研究述评与展望

随着环境问题的日益严峻,企业公开披露的环境信息作为了解企业环境绩效的重要方式引起了国内外学者的重视。本文着眼于现有文献,对环境信息披露影响因素的中外研究进行了综述,并结合媒体监督和高管特征两个方面进行分析,为今后的相关研究提供了理论参考。     

机构投资者持股、高管权力与现金分红研究

上市公司不分红或少分红一直是我国资本市场治理的热点和难点问题。笔者将管理权力理论纳入现金分红治理研究框架,利用A股上市公司2009—2013年数据为样本对高管权力集中与上市公司现金分红之间的关系进行实证检验,并探究机构投资者在其中的治理作用。研究发现,高管权力集中公司现金分红的可能性小、支付的现金红利较少;进一步研究发现,机构投资者可以促进高管权力集中上市公司的现金分红,抑制高管权力集中产生的代理问题。该研究拓展了我国资本市场现金分红治理的研究视角,丰富了股利理论的研究文献。引导机构投资者积极发挥外部治理作用、逐步完善高管权力制衡机制以及将现金分红水平纳入高管绩效评价体系或写进高管薪酬契约将有助于解决上市公司的不分红或少分红难题。     

Calls of Warrants: Timing and Market Reaction

This paper examines the timing of, and reaction to, calls of callable warrants. Three main findings emerge. First, unlike convertible bonds or preferred stock, callable warrants are called almost as soon as possible. Second, there is a negative price reaction of about 3 percent when a call is announced. Finally, at the completion of a call, the stock price rebounds by an average of 7 percent. The total reaction from announcement through completion of the call is a positive excess return of about 4 percent.     

市场反应、生存模型与信息披露

本文应用生存模型对上市公司年报信息披露后股票市场价格反应时间进行研究，选择沪深两市在2004年710家样本公司年报信息披露后的股票价格作为研究对象，使用生存模型研究股价的变动方向和价格沿同一方向持续变动的时间。研究结果表明，上市公司的业绩变量、行业因素、市场交易状况和审计意见类型对市场反应时间有明显的影响，投资者可以选取关键指标来预测市场反应。     

IPO Market Timing

I develop a model of information spillovers in initial publicofferings (IPOs). The outcomes of pioneers’ IPOs reflectparticipating investors’ private information on commonvaluation factors. This makes the pricing of subsequent issuesrelatively easier and attracts more firms to the IPO market.I show that IPO market timing by the followers emerges as anequilibrium clustering pattern. High offer price realizationsfor pioneers’ IPOs better reflect investors’ privateinformation and trigger a larger number of subsequent IPOs thanlow offer price realizations do. This asymmetry in the spillovereffect is more pronounced early on in a hot market. The modelprovides an explanation for recent empirical findings that illustratethe high sensitivity of going public decision to IPO marketconditions.     

Keynesian Beauty Contest, Accounting Disclosure, and Market Efficiency

This paper examines the market efficiency consequences of accounting disclosure in the context of stock markets as a Keynesian beauty contest, an influential metaphor originally proposed by Keynes [1936] and recently formalized by Allen, Morris, and Shin [2006]. In such markets, public information plays an additional commonality role, biasing stock prices away from the consensus fundamental value toward public information. Despite this bias, I demonstrate that provisions of public information always drive stock prices closer to the fundamental value. Hence, as a main source of public information, accounting disclosure enhances market efficiency, and transparency should not be compromised on grounds of the Keynesian-beauty-contest effect.     

Trade Disclosure,Information Learning and Securities Market Performance

In this paper we examine the effect of information disclosure on securities market performance when liquidity traders are able to acquire information about inside trading. We show that the bid-ask spread increases with the liquidity trader's learning efficiency, which is greater when trade information is disclosed. The bid-ask spread is always higher when trade information is not disclosed. However, the discrepancy between the bid-ask spreads with and without information disclosure narrows when the learning efficiency increases. We also show that the gains of the informed traders in a market without trade information disclosure are reduced in the presence of the liquidity trader's learning. Nevertheless, liquidity traders do not necessarily benefit from increased transparency. In particular, liquidity traders may face higher trading costs.     

Market Performance Measures and Disclosure of Private Management Information in Capital Markets

Thispaper examines the optimal disclosure policyin a principal/agent setting in which investors and a managerdirectly receive pre-decision, non-contractible signals. Themanager's signal is more informative than the investors' signal.Under no disclosure, the market price provides contractible informationabout the investors' signal, whereas it does not reveal the investors'signal if the manager fully and truthfully discloses his signal.The Revelation Principle does not apply and we identify conditionsunder which no disclosure dominates full disclosure, and providea ``hurdle' model in which partial disclosure strictly dominatesboth no and full disclosure.     

Market Timing and Capital Structure

It is well known that firms are more likely to issue equity when their market values are high, relative to book and past market values, and to repurchase equity when their market values are low. We document that the resulting effects on capital structure are very persistent. As a consequence, current capital structure is strongly related to historical market values. The results suggest the theory that capital structure is the cumulative outcome of past attempts to time the equity market.     

企业业绩组合业绩差异与季报披露的时间选择--管理层信息披露的组合动机与信息操作

本文主要考察企业业绩组合、业绩差异与季报披露的时间选择之间的关系以及季报披露时间的信息内涵。实证研究显示,上年年报和一季度季报均为“好消息”,一季度每股收益、净资产收益率和主营业务利润率高的上市公司季报披露时间间隔大;上年年报为“好消息”而一季度季报为“坏消息”,上年年报为“坏消息”而一季度季报为“好消息”,上年年报和一季度季报均为“坏消息”,一季度每股收益比上年度高的上市公司季报披露时间间隔小。这可能是由于一季度季报和上年年报均要求在4月30日之前披露的特殊性,上市公司管理层在信息披露的过程中可能存在组合动机与信息操作行为,一季度季报披露的时间选择可能关键取决于上年年报和一季度季报披露的“好消息”或“坏消息”带来的积极影响或消极影响的组合与权衡。     

Market Effects of Recognition and Disclosure

Our recognition and disclosure model reveals that price informativeness is determined by the interaction of the qualities of three information sources—the recognized amount, the disclosed information, and the information revealed by price—and accounting expertise acquisition. It also reveals that recognition of an accounting amount alters each of these, thereby affecting price informativeness. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that recognition of a highly unreliable accounting amount, rather than simply disclosing it, can result in greater price informativeness. Likewise, recognition of a highly reliable amount can result in lower price informativeness. Our findings suggest that, because of the effects of aggregation, basing recognition decisions on reliability alone is too simplistic. Reliability relative to relevance is key, not reliability per se. We also find that recognition and disclosure affect the coefficients in a regression of price on accounting amounts.