经济的内外均衡与调控模式选择——基于流动性过剩、结构性通货膨胀背景下的思考

本文基于我国流动性过剩和结构性通货膨胀的背景,研究货币政策在协调经济内外均衡方面的矛盾,分析在国外利率不断下降、人民币升值压力不断增加的情况下,利率政策与汇率政策的配合问题,并得出以下结论:提高基准利率水平、改变负利率状况以抑制通货膨胀;适度加大人民币有效汇率的升值幅度,以缓解国际收支失衡状况。     

关于人民币汇率问题的思考

本文认为,人民币汇率不仅不存在所谓"严重低估",而且从购买力平价角度分析,还有高估之嫌,以人民币汇率严重低估为由逼迫人民币升值缺乏理论和现实依据.中国国际收支顺差和外汇储备快速增长并不是人民币汇率"严重低估"的结果,人民币升值非但不能解决国际收支顺差和外汇储备增长过快问题,反而会成为促使国际收支顺差和外汇储备进一步增长的重要推手.鉴于上述原因,破解前述人民币汇率与国际收支顺差和外汇储备之间恶性循环的对策,绝不能是人民币无休止地升值,而是保持人民币汇率的基本稳定.     

人民币升值能成为有效抑制通货膨胀的灵丹妙药吗

2007年下半年以来,我国物价持续上涨引起了国内外的广泛关注,进入2008年CPI月均数据更是超过了7%,物价持续上涨带来了通货膨胀的问题,国内一些学者倡导用人民币加速升值的方式来抑制通货膨胀,认为升值能减轻成本上涨的压力,还能够抑制出口,减少国际收支顺差,从而缓解流动性过剩的问题,那么人民币升值真的能有效抑制通货膨胀吗?     

德国马克升值的历史经验及借鉴

1950年以来,德国经济实现高速增长,德国马克在支持经济增长过程中成功实现了国内物价稳定、本币对外摘要:1950年以来,德国经济实现高速增长,德国马克在支持经济增长过程中成功实现了国内物价稳定、本币对外升值、经济平稳发展,并逐步成为重要国际储备货币之一。2003年以来,持续、大量的国际收支顺差对中国的货币政策产生了重大影响,人民银行面临人民币对外升值、对内物价上涨压力,人民币跨境流通和使用规模逐步扩大。本文分析了历史上德国马克升值的经验,以期对当今经济实力和国际地位不断提升的中国宏观经济内外部均衡管理有所借鉴。升值、经济平稳发展,并逐步成为重要国际储备货币之一。2003年以来,持续、大量的国际收支顺差对中国的货币政策产生了重大影响,人民银行面临人民币对外升值、对内物价上涨压力,人民币跨境流通和使用规模逐步扩大。本文分析了历史上德国马克升值的经验,以期对当今经济实力和国际地位不断提升的中国宏观经济内外部均衡管理有所借鉴     

人民币实际汇率影响国际收支的实证研究

通过用2009年1月—2011年12月的月度数据,建立实证模型,用单位根检验、协整检验等方法分析了人民币名义汇率对调整国际收支的影响。结果表明,人民币实际汇率的升值会导致出口减少。假设出口值减少导致净出口减少,那么净出口值的变动将促使人民币实际汇率反向变动。     

人民币升值对中国经济的影响浅析

一、人民币升值的原因分析 在世界经济一体化的今天,汇率对资源在全世界的配置起着重要作用,中国经济作为世界经济舞台上的重要一员,人民币汇率的变动将牵动着亚洲各国乃至全世界的神经.我国目前经济高速增长,国际收支持续双顺差,外汇储备稳步增加,种种迹象都表明人民币升值仍存在空间.     

人民币升值何时休?

自2005年7月人民币汇率形成机制改革以来,人民币升值预期伴随着经常项目和资本项目双顺差的国际收支不平衡,直接体现为外汇储备的迅猛增长。进出口贸易巨额顺差一直是国际社会逼迫人民币汇率升值的口实。六年多来,人民币汇率兑美元累计升值32%,实际有效汇率升值28%,人民币汇率稳定的升值预期也直接导致了国际收支的进一步不平衡,外汇储备同期增长4倍。自2011年第四季度,人     

人民币升值对中国通货膨胀的影响分析

近年来,人民币汇率问题成为国内外关注的焦点。由于我国经济的不断走强,人民币升值速度加快,不断突破一个个重大关口,一般来说,货币的升值往往会带来通货紧缩效应,而随着人民币升值速度的加快,我国国内物价飞涨、通货膨胀的现象却在日益加剧,治理通货膨胀也成为我国政府经济工作的重要目标。本文将简要分析人民币升值对我国通货膨胀的影响。     

人民币升值对中国通货膨胀的影响分析

近年来,人民币汇率问题成为国内外关注的焦点.由于我国经济的不断走强,人民币升值速度加快,不断突破一个个重大关口,一般来说,货币的升值往往会带来通货紧缩效应,而随着人民币升值速度的加快,我国国内物价飞涨、通货膨胀的现象却在日益加剧,治理通货膨胀也成为我国政府经济工作的重要目标.本文将简要分析人民币升值对我国通货膨胀的影响.     

人民币升值预期下的国际收支策略选择

2010年6月19日汇改后,人民币升值预期逐步回归理性,但升值预期仍长期存在。在人民币升值预期下,国际收支失衡状况加剧。本文通过对人民币升值内在根源及国际收支失衡原因的探析,针对我国特有的外汇收支现状,提出促进国际收支平衡的政策建议。     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

Disclosure of government financial information and the cost of local government’s debt financing——Empirical evidence from provincial investment bonds for urban construction

China’s slowing economic growth and rapid urbanization have made local government debt financing a significant issue.This study uses a sample of China’s provinc...     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Short-sale refinancing and price adjustment speed to bad news: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Short selling may accelerate stock price adjustment to negative news. However, the literature provides mixed evidence for this prediction. Using short-sale refinancing and a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model, this paper explores the effect of short selling on stock price adjustment. Our results show that (1) short-sale refinancing improves the speed of stock price adjustment to negative news. This result holds after we control for endogeneity. (2) The positive relationship between short-sale refinancing and stock price adjustment speed is significant in subsamples of stocks with higher earnings management or lower accuracy of analyst forecasts, indicating that firms with more opaque information are more likely to be targeted by short sellers. In subsamples of stocks with a higher ownership concentration or lower ownership by institutional investors, short selling is more likely to increase the speed of stock price adjustment, indicating that ownership structure may influence negative news mining. (3) As short-sale refinancing exacerbates the absorption of bad news by stock prices, it increases crash risk. This study enriches the research on the economic consequences of short selling and provides empirical evidence supporting regulations on short selling in China.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

【正】The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing ...     

Pricing Dynamic Insurance Risks Using the Principle of Equivalent Utility

We introduce an expected utility approach to price insurance risks in a dynamic financial market setting. The valuation method is based on comparing the maximal expected utility functions with and without incorporating the insurance product, as in the classical principle of equivalent utility. The pricing mechanism relies heavily on risk preferences and yields two reservation prices - one each for the underwriter and buyer of the contract. The framework is rather general and applies to a number of applications that we extensively analyze.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note:     

The China puzzle: Opportunities for accounting research

How can China achieve phenomenal economic growth despite what is considered as 'weak' institutions in market-based economies? Xu(2011) provides a framework to u...     

International harmonization of Japanese accounting standards

Historically, Japanese accounting standards have been quite distinct from International Accounting Standards (IASs) which have been perceived as being modelled on British-American accounting standards. However, in the 1990s, after the publication of E32 in 1989 and the IASC-IOSCO Agreement in 1995, the Business Accounting Deliberation Committee (BADC), the standards-setting body in Japan, has pursued a policy of harmonization with IASs. Accounting standards relating to consolidated financial statements of companies that make cross-border offerings of securities or operate worldwide are being revised drastically. This paper focuses on the development of international accounting harmonization and its impact on Japan.