Earnings Announcements,Differences of Opinion and Management Guidance

Berkman, Dimitrov, Jain, Koch, and Tice (2009) document a negative relationship between differences of opinion and earnings announcement returns, and this relationship is more pronounced when short‐sale constraints are likely to be high. These findings are interpreted as support for the theory in Miller (1977) that binding short sale constraints cause pessimists to be underrepresented in price formation. We conjecture that accounting information (i.e., earnings news) is likely to play a role in this returns pattern. After controlling for the level of earnings news, we find that the relationship between differences of opinion and stock returns is either eliminated or opposite from what is predicted by Miller's theory. Further, we present evidence that suggests the confounding effect of earnings news can be explained by (pessimistic) management earnings guidance. Our findings offer an alternative explanation for why low differences of opinion stocks earn greater abnormal returns around earnings announcements.     

The relationship between R&D intensity,conservatism, and management earnings forecast issuance

R&D-intensive firms suffer from high information asymmetry and high proprietary costs and are prone to exhibit bottom-line losses given the unconditional conservative accounting treatment of R&D expenses. We examine how R&D intensity influences the issuance of management earnings forecasts (MEFs) across levels of accounting conservatism, controlling for proprietary costs and other earnings guidance determinants. We provide insights into how managers view the tradeoffs of using MEF disclosures to lower information asymmetry versus the costs of releasing proprietary information to competitors and the loss of reputational capital that could arise from providing inaccurate forecasts. We find that although R&D intensity and conditional conservatism are negatively related to the issuance of MEFs, as shown in prior research, at high levels of research intensity and the accompanying uncertainty about future payoffs, the negative association between conditional conservatism and MEF issuance is mitigated. These findings point to a role for conditional conservatism as a credibility enhancer for managers of R&D intense firms.     

Impacts of Additional Guidance Provided on International Financial Reporting Standards on the Judgments of Accountants

This pioneering study examines the impact of the provision of additional guidance on International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) as a “decision aid” on the accuracy of judgments of the accountants. To extend the prior research on accounting judgment and decision-making, we also examine the interactive effects of task complexity and additional guidance on the judgments of accountants. The results provide evidence that those accountants who are provided with decision aid in the form of additional guidance on IFRS make more accurate judgments than accountants who are not provided with such guidance. Furthermore, the study provides evidence that this additional guidance improves the judgments of accountants when they undertake tasks which they find complex. The results indicate that additional guidance on IFRS needs to be provided and suggests that accountants should exploit any guidance which is currently provided in IFRS and by the International Financial Reporting Standards Interpretations Committee.     

R&D expenditures and implied equity risk premiums

This study investigates the relationship between research and development (R&D) expenditures and risk premiums implied in the costs of equity capital. We posit that R&D expenditures represent an information risk factor resulting from both information asymmetry about R&D between investors and managers and low-quality R&D reporting that impairs the coordination between investors and managers with respect to managers’ investment decisions. Our results support our position by showing a positive association between R&D expenditures and implied equity risk premiums. From this research along with prior studies, investors can have better knowledge about the risky nature of R&D expenditures that drive up implied risk premiums and at the same time provide opportunities to earn excess returns in a short to long horizon. Accounting standard setters can benefit from this study’s findings that R&D expenditures represent an off-balance-sheet risk factor and thus warrant reconsidering SFAS No. 2 for potential capitalization of R&D expenditures.     

投资银行-机构投资者关系、“捧场”与IPO中的利益问题

投资银行是直接融资过程中最重要的中介机构,作为融资产品的“卖方”代表,其核心竞争力源于它所构建的投资者关系网络,但现有文献对于投行-投资者关系在证券发行中的作用还缺乏系统的实证研究。本文利用机构投资者在中国IPO新股发行中的完整询价记录,基于报价参与和报价水平两个维度提出了一种新的动态关系强度测算方法,并由此细致刻画了投行-机构关系对股票发行、定价的作用机制。结果发现:(1)投行可以驱动关系机构主动认购其承销的IPO新股,并引导关系机构给出与投行估值水平保持一致的高位报价,进而有效缓解了IPO拍卖制下的“投资者参与不确定性问题”。(2)关系机构的捧场报价显著提高了股票发行价格、增加了投行的承销收入;但是当新股交易价格在长期内逐渐向其内在价值水平收敛时,受到关系机构捧场支持越多的IPO新股,其长期回报率相对越低。(3)投行与机构的关系在本质上是互惠的,一旦投行被赋予新股分配权力,它明显倾向于将新股抑价发行带来的巨大利益分配给在前期捧场的关系机构,二者的关系越强,机构报价被认定为“有效报价”的概率越高,而一旦被认定为有效报价,关系机构的新股需求更是将被优先满足。     

管理层风险提示信息、诚信度与投资者决策——一项实验证据

本文采用实验研究方法,检验了管理层讨论与分析中风险提示信息和管理层的诚信度对投资者估计公司未来盈利潜力和投资可能性的影响。研究发现,管理层讨论与分析中的风险提示信息显著的影响了投资者对上市公司未来盈利潜力的估计和投资者投资可能性的判断;同时还发现,风险提示信息对投资者估计公司未来盈利潜力和投资可能性的影响依赖于公司管理层诚信度的高低,即管理层诚信度调节了公司管理层讨论与分析中风险提示信息对投资者估计上市公司未来盈利潜力和投资可能性的影响。     

Accounting Standards, Implementation Guidance, and Example-Based Reasoning

This paper examines interpretation of accounting standards that provide implementation guidance via affirmative or counter examples. Based on prior psychology research, we predict that practitioners engage in “example‐based reasoning” such that they are more likely to conclude that their case qualifies for the same treatment as the example. We test our predictions in two experiments in which participants judge the appropriateness of income‐statement recognition. Experiment 1 uses Masters of Business Administration (MBA) students and varies example type (affirmative, counter) and case (revenue recognition, expense recognition) in a 2 × 2 design. Experiment 1 supports our predictions. Experiment 2 uses more experienced practitioners, and varies example type (affirmative, counter, both) in a 1 × 3 design. Experiment 2 supports the use of example‐based reasoning, and indicates that practitioners in the “both” condition respond as if they had only received an affirmative example. These results have implications for understanding how guidance that accompanies accounting standards can result in aggressive or conservative application of standards.     

The Economic Determinants of Conditional Conservatism

Abstract:  We study the economic determinants of conditional conservatism. Consistent with prior literature, we find that contracting induces only conditional conservatism and litigation induces both conditional and unconditional conservatism. We extend prior evidence by Qiang (2007) by showing that taxation and regulation induce not only unconditional conservatism, but conditional conservatism as well. We show that in certain scenarios taxation and regulation create incentives to shift income from periods with high taxation pressure and high public scrutiny to periods with lower taxation pressure and lower public scrutiny. These income shifting strategies are implemented by recognising current economic losses that, given managerial incentives to report aggressively, would not have been recognized otherwise, or by delaying the recognition of current economic gains that would have been recognized had circumstances been different.     

Accounting conservatism and the profitability of corporate insiders

We predict that accounting conservatism influences insiders' opportunities to speculate on good and bad news, and thus, insider trading profitability. We find that greater conditional (unconditional) conservatism is associated with lower (higher) insiders' profitability from sales. We find limited evidence that conservatism influences profitability from purchases. These findings are consistent with our hypotheses on the different informational roles of conditional and unconditional conservatism, and on the asymmetric influence of conservatism over the opportunities to speculate on good versus bad news. Our research design takes into consideration the endogenous nature of insiders' trading and conservatism. The results are robust to different measures of conservatism and a number of additional analyses.     

When does analyst reputation matter? Evidence from analysts’ reliance on management guidance

We investigate the joint effects of analyst reputation, uncertainty and guidance news valence on analysts’ reliance on management guidance. We find that, compared to less reputable analysts, reputable analysts rely less on guidance when they issue earnings forecasts. This analyst reputation effect is stronger when earnings and information uncertainty are higher or when the guidance contains good news. Further analysis suggests that both reputable and less reputable analysts sacrifice their forecast accuracy when they rely less on guidance; however, reputable analysts are compensated to a greater extent by the increased informativeness of their forecasts. Finally, we find that analysts’ future career advancement is enhanced when their reliance is low.     

信息不对称、过度自信与股价变动

信息传导的非同步和投资者情绪变化是股票市场的两个典型特征,前者会引发投资者之间出现信息不对称问题,后者主要体现为投资者过度自信,两者共同作用影响股票价格变动。本文将信息不对称和投资者过度自信情绪置于同一个分析框架,建立两阶段动态序贯定价理论模型研究现实市场上信息传导过程中股价变动的内在机制。结果表明:(1)面临新信息的进入,投资者对股票收益预期的调整与均衡价格之间具有正相关关系;(2)面临有利消息时,过度自信投资者比例越大,股票的均衡价格越高,投资收益将越低;面临不利消息时则相反;(3)随着过度自信投资者比例以及过度自信程度升高,市场风险溢价将下降;(4)投资者群体在信息传导过程中出现分化,对股价变动形成异质信念,未获取信息和获取信息但未出现过度自信的投资者认为股价被高估,获取信息且出现过度自信的投资者认为价格被低估,促使更多的交易,引发市场成交量和股价变动;(5)过度自信投资者比例与过度自信程度提高均会对市场效率产生正向影响,而对市场深度具有负向效应。最后,基于理论结果对非对称性和持续性等典型的市场波动性特征进行解释。     

Voluntary Disclosures,Corporate Control,and Investment

We examine the valuation and capital allocation roles of voluntary disclosure when managers have private information regarding the firm’s investment opportunities, but an efficient market for corporate control influences their investment decisions. For managers with long‐term stakes in the firm, the equilibrium disclosure region is two‐tailed: only extreme good news and extreme bad news is disclosed in equilibrium. Moreover, the market’s stock price and investment responses to bad news disclosures are stronger than the responses to good news disclosures, which is consistent with the empirical evidence. We also find that myopic managers are more likely to withhold bad news in good economic times when markets can independently assess expected investment returns.     

Information Leakage Prior to Company Issued Guidance

We find that information leakages prior to public guidance issued by company management exist even after Regulation Fair Disclosure (FD), and are more pronounced when characteristics of the firm, the guidance, or the industry reflect higher levels of information asymmetry. Since public guidance is only partially leaked, this information leakage can be used to anticipate the information content of the impending public guidance. We simulate a trading strategy based on the preguidance leakage in the period after Regulation FD, which suggests that information leakage is an effective signal of the information content within impending public guidance.     

解读企业信息需求——基于机构投资者的信息需求探索

这是一项关于新的信息环境和制度背景下 ,企业信息的关键使用者———机构投资者信息需求的最新研究。本研究对中国机构投资者使用公司报告的主要目的、投资决策模式、信息需求的影响因素、信息需求偏好以及他们对公司报告质量的评价等进行了全面调查。研究表明 :目前中国机构投资者的投资理念与其投资决策模式尚未能够有效耦合 ;因特网已成为机构投资者获取更为广泛丰富的公司信息的最主要的渠道 ,但是 ,公司网站披露信息的质量存在缺陷 ;在法定年报中 ,财务信息仍是机构投资者关注的重点 ;机构投资者对简明财务信息有明显偏好 ,对“年报补丁”非常反感 ;目前的财务报告并不存在明显信息冗余 ,相反 ,存在披露不足 ,机构投资者的信息需求与公司报告实务之间仍存在巨大期望差距。本文对调查结果进行了系统分析 ,并提出相应的政策建议。     

Is the Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices Declining? Evidence from Chile

Several empirical studies have found that the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into import prices is not complete and declined during the 1990s. In this paper we carry out a reexamination of these findings using a unique database of disaggregated import prices both at the border and wholesale levels for Chile. Our results do not support previous conclusions. We find a complete and nondeclining ERPT in the long run at both pricing levels of Chilean imports. We extend previous evidence by showing that, in the short run, wholesale prices seem to be less sensitive to exchange rate variations. In addition, we find weak evidence of asymmetric pass-through from appreciations versus depreciations for the aggregate import indexes in the short run and the long run.     

媒体新闻报道的声誉溢出效应

本文聚焦于公司违规曝光这一特定事件,使用三重差分的计量分析方法,探讨了媒体的事前新闻报道是否会影响其在投资者群体中的声誉,即是否存在声誉溢出效应。结果表明媒体对违规公司的事前新闻报道越正面(负面),其日后针对非涉案公司发布的新闻报道的市场反应就越弱(强),即存在双向声誉溢出效应。然而该效应存在不对称性,表现为负面报道带来的正向溢出效应明显强于正面报道带来的负向溢出效应。进一步研究发现,声誉溢出效应取决于投资者对于媒体声誉的主观感知以及对于违规事件的信息解读能力。当媒体的既有声誉水平较低、违规案件较为严重,或非违规公司机构投资者比例较高时,媒体的声誉溢出效应更加明显。本文论证了媒体客观公正性对于声誉积累的重要性,为媒体是否应当以及如何维护在投资者群体中的声誉形象提供了经验证据。本文对投资者如何判断和使用媒体发布的信息,进而做出正确投资决策也具有重要意义。     

International equity funds,performance, and investor flows: Australian evidence

This is the first paper in the Australian literature to examine the investment performance of actively managed international equity funds (domiciled in Australia). Both institutional and retail international equity funds are assessed together with the impacts of investor fund flows on portfolio returns. Performance is also evaluated using conditional measures that account for public information in the global economy, however, despite an improvement in the measurement of risk-adjusted returns, performance remains consistent with an efficient global market. These findings support prior research, which concludes that active management does not provide investors with superior returns to passive indices. When consideration is given to the liquidity service provided by active managers, fund flows are shown to negatively impact on performance.     

Post-Earnings Announcement Drift and Market Participants' Information Processing Biases

Prior research has been unable to explain the phenomenon known as post-earnings announcement drift, raising questions concerning the semi-strong form efficiency of the market typically assumed in capital market research. This study contributes to our understanding of this anomaly by examining drift in the context of theories that consider investors' non-Bayesian behaviors. The empirical evidence reveals that investors' overconfidence about their private information and the reliability of the earnings information are two important factors that explain drift. Finally, this study also provides insight into the puzzling relationship between dispersion and drift discussed in prior research.     

News and Business Cycles in Open Economies

We study the effects of news about future total factor productivity (TFP) in a small open economy. We show that an open‐economy version of the neoclassical model produces a recession in response to good news about future TFP. We propose an open‐economy model that generates comovement in response to TFP news. The key elements of our model are a weak short‐run wealth effect on the labor supply and adjustment costs to labor and investment. We show that our model also generates comovement in response to news about future investment‐specific technical change and to “sudden stops.”