Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area

This paper employs a panel vector autoregressive model for the member countries of the Euro Area to explore the role of banks during the slump of the real economy that followed the financial crisis. In particular, we seek to quantify the macroeconomic effects of adverse loan supply shocks, which are identified using sign restrictions. We find that loan supply shocks significantly contributed to the evolution of the loan volume and real GDP growth in all member countries during the financial crisis. However, concerning both, the timing and the magnitude of the shocks our results also indicate that the Euro Area was characterized by a considerable degree of cross-country heterogeneity.     

U.S. Monetary Regimes and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

Monetary policy in the United States has been documented to have switched from reacting weakly to inflation fluctuations during the 1970s, to fighting inflation aggressively from the early 1980s onward. In this paper, I analyze the impact of the U.S. monetary policy regime switches on the Eurozone. I construct a New Keynesian two‐country model where foreign (U.S.) monetary policy switches regimes over time. I estimate the model for the U.S. and the Euro Area using quarterly data and find that the United States has switched between those two regimes, in line with existing evidence. I show that foreign regime switches affect home (Eurozone) inflation and output volatility and their responses to shocks, substantially, as long as the home central bank commits to a time‐invariant interest rate rule reacting to domestic conditions only. Optimal policy in the home country instead requires that the home central bank reacts strongly to domestic producer‐price inflation and to international variables, such as imported goods relative prices. In fact, I show that currency misalignments and relative prices play a crucial role in the transmission of foreign monetary policy regime switches internationally. Interestingly, I show that only marginal gains arise for the Euro Area when the European Central Bank (ECB) adjusts its policy according to the monetary regime in the United States. Thus, a simple time‐invariant monetary policy rule with a strong reaction to Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation and relative prices is enough to counteract the effects of monetary policy switches in the United States.     

The 2008 financial crisis: Stock market contagion and its determinants

In this paper, we investigate worldwide contagion and its determinants during the 2008 financial crisis. Utilizing an international sample of returns from 2003 to 2009, we consider both uni- and bi-directional contagion. After controlling for crisis-related volatility, we find strong evidence that cross-market linkages increase among many financial markets. In contrast to previous crises, contagion following the 2008 global financial crisis is not confined to emerging markets. The United States and other mature financial markets in the sample transmit and receive contagion. Country markets are less influenced by regions than they are by other country markets. We also construct variables that represent relative changes in economic variables before and during the crisis. We find that both economic fundamentals such as trade structure, interest rates, inflation rates, industrial production, and regional effects, and investors’ risk aversion contribute to international contagion.     

Convergence of Euro area inflation rates

We study the behavior of inflation rates among the 12 initial Euro countries in order to test whether and when the group convergence initially dictated by the Maastricht treaty and now by the ECB, occurs. We also assess the impact of events such as the advent of the Euro and the 2008 financial crisis. Due to the small size of the estimation sample, we propose a new procedure that increases the power of panel unit root tests when used to study group-wise convergence. Applying this new procedure to Euro area inflation, we find strong and lasting evidence of convergence among the inflation rates soon after the implementation of the Maastricht treaty and a dramatic decrease in the persistence of the differential after the occurrence of the single currency. After the 2008 crisis, Euro area inflation rates follow the ECB's price stability benchmark, although Greece reports relatively higher inflation.     

Monetary policy and the twin crises

After presenting a brief overview of the recent financial crisis and the European debt crisis that followed in its wake, this paper goes on discuss monetary policy in the United States, the United Kingdom and the Euro bloc prior to and during the course of the two crises. The paper presents historical evidence for the three areas on the relationships linking the volatilities of output, inflation and monetary growth. In all three these relations are strongly positive. There is, therefore, no tradeoff between inflation and output volatility; the two move up and down together. Both, moreover, move up and down with the volatility of monetary growth. Viewed from this perspective, the increased volatilities of money supplies and the monetary base in the United States, the United Kingdom and the Euro bloc over the last half decade pose problems.     

On International Consumption Risk Sharing,Financial Integration and Financial Development

This article investigates the empirical link between international consumption risk sharing, financial integration, and financial development for a group of twenty-nine developed and developing countries in the G7, the Euro area, and the OECD. Estimation results indicate that (1) risk sharing in the Euro area is higher than those in the G-7 and the OECD, and (2) a higher degree of risk sharing is associated with a greater degree of financial integration and a lower level of financial development. These results suggest that more financially integrated countries might be better able to insure themselves against idiosyncratic income shocks and countries with more developed financial markets might tend to engage in less consumption risk sharing with other countries thanks to their own sophisticated financial markets. Holding financial integration and financial development equal, countries in the Euro area engage in significantly more risk sharing than the ones in the G7 and the OECD.     

Spillover effects from Euro area monetary policy across Europe: A factor-augmented VAR approach

I analyze spillover effects from a Euro area monetary policy shock to fourteen European countries outside the Euro area. The analysis is based on a factor-augmented VAR model with two blocks, which exploits a large cross-country data set. After a Euro area monetary policy expansion, production increases in most non-Euro area countries, whereas short-term interest rates and financial uncertainty decline. These effects are on average comparable to the responses in the aggregate Euro area. However, the size of spillover effects varies with country characteristics. Spillovers on production are larger in non-Euro area economies with higher trade openness, whereas financial variables react to a higher extent in countries with higher financial integration. Regarding the exchange rate regime, countries with fixed exchange rates show stronger spillovers both in terms of production and interest rates. Finally, prices increase in Western European economies outside the Euro area, but decline or do not respond in Central and Eastern Europe.     

Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A General Equilibrium Exploration

Engel and West (2005) show that the observed near random‐walk behavior of nominal exchange rates is an equilibrium outcome of a partial equilibrium asset approach when economic fundamentals follow exogenous first‐order integrated processes and the discount factor approaches one. In this paper, I argue that the unit market discount factor creates a theoretical trade‐off within a two‐country general equilibrium model. The unit discount factor generates near random‐walk nominal exchange rates, but it counterfactually implies perfect consumption risk sharing and flat money demand. Bayesian posterior simulation exercises, based on post‐Bretton Woods data from Canada and the United States, reveal difficulties in reconciling the equilibrium random‐walk proposition within the canonical model; in particular, the market discount factor is identified as being much smaller than one. A relative money demand shock is identified as the main driver of nominal exchange rates.     

An Experimental Investigation of Alternative Going‐Concern Reporting Formats: A Canadian Experience*

This study questions whether the current or proposed Canadian standard of disclosing a going‐concern contingency is viewed as equivalent to the standard adopted in the United States by financial statement users. We examined loan officers' perceptions across three different formats ‐ namely, an integrated note with a clean auditor's report (the current Canadian standard), a stand‐alone note with referencing on the face of the balance sheet and income statement (the proposed and now rescinded standard), and a modified auditor's report with an explanatory paragraph in addition to a stand‐alone going concern note (the standard adopted in the United States and other countries). Bank loan officers were selected as the appropriate financial statement users for this study. The results of the test of the hypothesis suggest that once the going‐concern note is fully disclosed in the notes, the style of presentation within the notes (a stand‐alone note versus an integrated note) does not significantly influence the reactions and perceptions of risk if the auditor's report is unmodified (i.e., if no reference is made to a going‐concern contingency). However, when the auditor's report is modified with an explanatory paragraph detailing the uncertainty and referencing the going‐concern note in the footnotes, the format appeared to convey a stronger signal of financial distress to loan officers. These results appear to differ from prior research, which holds that once the information is released in the financial statements, the format has no additional effect. The finding of this study is that the proposed and withdrawn Canadian standard was not perceived differently by the bankers from the present Canadian standard, but the standard adopted in the United States and most other countries was. This makes a strong argument for moving all the way to that standard as opposed to the “halfway” approach of the now rescinded CICA exposure draft. Thus, the public interest in Canada may not be served by adopting a halfway approach.     

Euro and FIBOR interest rates: A continuous time modelling analysis

The introduction of the Euro in January 1999 and the new reference interest rate EURIBOR® which is widely used as the underlying interest rate for Euro denominated derivative contracts have opened up a new area of research in international financial markets. In this paper we estimate single factor models using daily EURIBOR® and FIBOR interest rate data. We also estimate a model allowing a level-GARCH specification and a two factor model. We find evidence of level-volatility effects in both rates.     

美国最优贷款利率功能的转变及对我国的启示

文中阐述了美国最优贷款利率功能上的转变以及在贷款定价方面的重要地位,并讨论了美国国内关于最优贷款利率的争议,力图对我国推进利率市场化将具有积极的借鉴和启示意义。     

Firms’ performance under different bankruptcy systems: a Europe–USA empirical analysis

This study empirically analyses the effect that the bankruptcy law has on firms’ performance based on its financial situation. To do this, we considered the different types of efficiency and their influence on firms’ value. The study was carried out for Germany, Spain, the United States, France and the United Kingdom. We applied System‐GMM estimation to dynamic panel data. The main results show that under creditor‐oriented systems, there is a decrease in the value of both financially distressed firms and those filing for bankruptcy.     

Financial outreach and household financial constraint

This paper analyses how financial outreach affects the probability of households having financial constraint (i.e. being ‘discouraged’ and ‘rejected’ for loan applications). We show that households residing in communities with more bank branches are less likely to be financially constrained. Using the distance to the closest fruit and vegetable (open) market as an instrument for financial outreach, we address the potential endogeneity problem and find our results remain robust. We further provide evidence on the negative relationship between the number of bank branches nearby and the probability of loan rejection, in particular for middle‐income young households.     

The impact of monetary policy shocks on stock prices: Evidence from Canada and the United States

Using structural VAR models with short-run restrictions appropriate for Canada and the United States, we empirically examine whether trade and financial market openness matter for the impact on and transmission to stock prices of monetary policy shocks. We find that, in Canada, the immediate response of stock prices to a domestic contractionary monetary policy shock is small and the dynamic response is brief, whereas in the United States, the immediate response of stock prices to a similar shock is relatively large and the dynamic response is relatively prolonged. We find that these differences are largely driven by differences in financial market openness and hence different dynamic responses of monetary policy shocks between the two countries that we model in this paper.     

Bank Finance versus Bond Finance

We present a model with agency costs where heterogeneous firms raise finance through either bank loans or corporate bonds and where banks are more efficient than the market in resolving informational problems. We document some major long‐run differences in corporate finance between the United States and the euro area, and show that our model can explain those differences based on information availability. The model fits the data best when the euro area is characterized by lower availability of public information about corporate credit risk relative to the United States, and when European firms value more than United States firms banks’ flexibility and information acquisition role.     

China's Economy Is Not Overtaking America's

Most scholars and pundits, along with the general public, believe that China is an economic juggernaut set to overtake America as the world's dominant power. But the conventional wisdom is wrong. The United States is several times wealthier than China; and since the global financial crisis over a decade ago, the absolute gap between the two nations has been growing by trillions of dollars each year. China's economy is big but inefficient. It produces high output at high costs. Chinese businesses suffer from chronically high production costs, and China's 1.4 billion people generate massive welfare and security burdens. The United States, by contrast, is big and efficient, producing high output at relatively low costs. American workers and businesses are seven times more productive than China's, on average; and with four times fewer people than China, the United States has much lower welfare and security costs. The conventional wisdom about China, besides being wrong, has dangerous policy implications. For starters, it creates the impression that the United States and China are locked in “Thucydides' trap” in which a rising power challenges the ruling hegemon, and the two slide into a major war. This misguided notion, widespread in both countries, is driving a spiral of hostility. Slowing this spiral requires both sides to take a clear‐eyed look at the real balance of power, which is now, and will likely remain, highly skewed in America's favor. A second danger is that an exaggerated sense of China's rise continues to fuel the current trade wars. The United States should aggressively punish unfair Chinese trade practices, but do so through a reformed WTO, regional free trade pacts, and targeted investment restrictions and economic decoupling—not with unilateral tariffs. A third danger is that exaggerated fear of China's rise and America's decline could cause the United States to back off from many of its foreign policy commitments, divesting all obligations to maintaining the global order save those linked to vital national interests. Advocates of an “America First” foreign policy are probably right that the United States could improve its relative position by ditching allies and international institutions and letting the world burn. But one of the benefits of unrivaled wealth and power is that the United States can afford to pursue absolute gains, sacrificing a bit of relative advantage to make the United States and the world better off overall. As the most secure and powerful country in history, the United States can and should do more than ceaselessly struggle for power.     

Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area

This paper studies the role of credit supply factors in business cycle fluctuations using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with financial frictions enriched with an imperfectly competitive banking sector. Banks issue collateralized loans to both households and firms, obtain funding via deposits, and accumulate capital out of retained earnings. Loan margins depend on the banks' capital‐to‐assets ratio and on the degree of interest rate stickiness. Balance‐sheet constraints establish a link between the business cycle, which affects bank profits and thus capital, and the supply and cost of loans. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques using data for the euro area. The analysis delivers the following results. First, the banking sector and, in particular, sticky rates attenuate the effects of monetary policy shocks, while financial intermediation increases the propagation of supply shocks. Second, shocks originating in the banking sector explain the largest share of the contraction of economic activity in 2008, while macroeconomic shocks played a limited role. Third, an unexpected destruction of bank capital may have substantial effects on the economy.     

人民币购买力平价成立吗?——基于人民币兑欧元的多样本协整分析

选取人民币兑非主权国家货币——欧元的名义汇率,中国CPI指数及欧元区调和HICP指数的数据,以欧元正式成为欧元区唯一合法货币的起点2002年7月到2018年12月为样本,依据影响中欧汇率的重要节点事件对样本进行分段与结合,对人民币兑欧元购买力平价(PPP)成立与否进行协整检验。实证结论有:人民币汇率形成制度改革及欧元平稳运行后的(2005年8月—2018年12月)人民币兑欧元购买力平价协整检验成立;非主权国家货币欧元同样适用经典的购买力平价理论;2008年金融危机是影响汇率市场的重要节点事件,但长期不影响人民币兑欧元购买力平价成立;对PPP冲击影响最大的首先是汇率本身,其次依次是欧元区HICP、中国CPI。因此,购买力平价在一定程度上能够解释人民币兑欧元汇率,对中欧经贸往来有一定的指导作用。     

Monetary policy and bank lending in the Euro area: Is there a stock market channel or an interest rate channel?

In this paper I compare a traditional demand oriented model of bank lending with its focus on short-term interest rates in the money market, to a non-traditional capital budgeting model of bank lending based on movements in share valuations for the Euro area. Using non-nested hypothesis tests, omitted variables tests, and Granger Causality tests, I reject the traditional demand oriented model of bank lending and fail to reject the capital budgeting model of bank lending for Monetary Financial Institutions (MFI's) in the Euro area. Even though Europe is a bank-based financial system, it appears the stock market plays a key role in the lending decisions and allocation of resources in Europe. One possible policy implication of this research is that the central bank should try and stabilize stock prices in order to achieve their goal of stabilizing bank lending and the economy.     

The effect of financial repression and enforcement on entrepreneurship and economic development

A general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents (with respect to wealth and ability) shows that differences across countries in intermediation costs and enforcement generate differences in occupational choice, firm size, credit, output and income inequality. Counterfactual experiments are performed for Latin American, European, transition and high growth Asian countries, with empirical estimates of each country's financial frictions and United States values for all other parameters. The results isolate the quantitative effect of these financial frictions in explaining the performance gap between each country and the United States, and depend critically on whether a general equilibrium factor price effect is operative.