中国居民储蓄与股票市场之间的联动效应——理论分析与实证检验

从资产需求理论出发的理论分析、对我国现实情况进行的剖析,以及利用2001～2007年3月的最新数据对居民储蓄与股票市场之间联动关系进行的实证分析显示:随着经济的发展和资本市场的深化,我国居民的储蓄偏好和证券投资倾向正逐步发生变化;我国股市交易与居民储蓄存在联动效应,居民主动投资股票市场的积极性在增强,但两者之间的影响幅度还相对较小,这与我国居民储蓄存款的低利率弹性、股票市场的高风险特征以及股票市场的风险溢价波幅较大等有关.     

居民储蓄与股票市场联动的实证分析

本文利用我国2001年至2007年3月的最新数据对居民储蓄与股票市场之间的联动关系进行了实证分析,并对现实情况进行了剖析。结果显示:随着经济的发展和资本市场的深化,我国居民的储蓄偏好和证券投资倾向正逐步发生变化;我国股市交易与居民储蓄存在联动效应,居民主动投资股票市场的积极性在增强;但两者之间的影响幅度还相对较小,这与我国居民储蓄存款的低利率弹性、股票市场的高风险特征以及股票市场的风险溢价波幅较大等现实因素有关。     

我国居民储蓄与股票市场联动的实证分析

本文利用我国2001年1月至2007年3月的数据对居民储蓄与股票市场之间的联动关系进行了实证分析,并对现实情况进行了剖析。结果显示:随着经济的发展和资本市场的深化,我国居民的储蓄偏好和证券投资倾向正逐步发生变化;我国股市交易与居民储蓄存在联动效应,居民主动投资股票市场的积极性在增强;但两者之间的影响幅度还相对较小,这与我国居民储蓄存款的低利率弹性、股票市场的高风险特征以及股票市场的风险溢价波幅较大等现实因素有关。     

对我国居民储蓄与股市交易之间联动效应的实证研究

本文利用2001—2007年8月的最新数据对居民储蓄与股票市场之间联动关系进行的实证分析显示：随着经济的发展和资本市场的深化,我国居民的储蓄偏好和证券投资倾向正逐步发生变化;我国股市交易与居民储蓄存在联动效应,居民主动投资股票市场的积极性在增强,但两者之间的影响幅度还相对较小,这与我国居民储蓄存款的低利率弹性、股票市场的高风险特征以及股票市场的风险溢价波幅较大等有关。     

资产投资热度对我国居民储蓄的分流效应研究

对我国居民储蓄投资与资产投资热度之间的相关性进行了研究,主要从房地产市场与股票市场两个方面入手,探讨房地产投资、股票投资对于居民储蓄的分流效应.基于相关理论与前人的研究提出了基本假设,运用描述性统计分析和因素分析的方法对居民储蓄与房地产市场、股票市场热度的关系进行实证研究,建立了回归模型.发现房地产市场的活跃对于储蓄的分流效应很大,但是股票市场的活跃对储蓄减少的分流作用却不明显.     

居民活期存款储蓄与A股市场关系的实证研究

本文利用2001年至2010年的最新数据对国内居民活期储蓄与A股市场的相关关系进行实证分析显示:伴随着我国经济持续稳定的增长和资本市场的不断深化,我国居民的储蓄偏好和证券投资倾向正在逐步的发生改变;国内居民投资股票市场的积极性正在加强,但是居民的活期储蓄和股票投资之间的影响幅度还有限,这与我国居民储蓄的低利率弹性、股票市场的高风险特征以及股票市场的风险溢价波动幅度较大有关.     

居民活期存款储蓄与A股市场关系的实证研究

本文利用2001年至2010年的最新数据对国内居民活期储蓄与A股市场的相关关系进行实证分析显示:伴随着我国经济持续稳定的增长和资本市场的不断深化,我国居民的储蓄偏好和证券投资倾向正在逐步的发生改变;国内居民投资股票市场的积极性正在加强,但是居民的活期储蓄和股票投资之间的影响幅度还有限,这与我国居民储蓄的低利率弹性、股票市场的高风险特征以及股票市场的风险溢价波动幅度较大有关。     

我国债券市场价格波动的均衡与因果分析

债券价格的决定理论主要有古典利率理论、流动偏好理论、可贷资金理论和理性预期理论。本文采用协整和因果检验方法，研究宏观经济变量、货币金融变量与我国债券市场价格波动的联动和因果关系。我国债券市场价格与固定资产投资、净出口，物价指数、货币供应量、金融机构存贷款和外汇储备存在长期均衡关系。居民储蓄和净出口对我国债券市场价格走势具有单向引导关系，我国债券市场价格对固定资产投资和金融机构存款具有显著影响。     

我国银行资金与股票市场关系的实证研究

本文从实证的角度研究了我国银行资金与股票市场的关系。我们的统计数据支持如下几个观点：居民储蓄与股票市场资金供给呈负相关关系；股票市场走势与居民储蓄呈负相关关系；股票市场融资量与银行对金融企业的贷款呈正相关关系。本文在实证分析的基础上也给出了相应的政策建议。     

中国股票及国债市场的供需约束研究

本文从分析“决定证券需求和供给的因素”入手，通过对股票市场；国债市场，以建立其供需约束联立计量方程的研究方法，对各因素进行均衡分析，找出各个影响因素对于均衡的作用程度，然后，再通过对直接融资的整体供需约束进行分析，以期找到我国直接融资对储蓄一投资机制和宏观经济的贡献．结论是我国直接融资基本上呈现出与国民经济的较大的相关性，对推动经济的发展作用显著．股票市场，国债市场的供需约束作用机制有共同特点，而居民储蓄的稳定增长是直接融资的需求约束作用的关键；同时为保持直接融资发展势头必须提高直接融资的质量增长比重。     

Book Review

Organisational risk propensity directly affects the decision‐making behaviour of employees, with linked impacts on the ongoing prosperity of the organisation. The literature on an individual's risk behaviour is extensive. However, few studies investigate the risk propensity of an organisation. This study uses primary data from interviews within a major change programme in a FTSE100 pharmaceutical organisation to explore the characteristics of organisational risk propensity. The data are analysed using open coding procedures from Grounded Theory in order to fragment the category of ‘organisational risk propensity’ into some constituent properties and dimensions. An integrative framework is then inductively derived which provides insights into risk propensity within the case context; together with some cues for implementing changes to the organisation's risk propensity if so desired. The output from this research also provides a useful base from which to develop a survey instrument for assessing organisational risk propensity.     

The criteria of acceptable risk in Russia

There do not exist acceptable risk criteria of any industrial activity in Russia. The authors analysed worldwide criteria of acceptable risk, industrial accident frequencies in Russia, and the real state that the technological equipment is in. Risk-reduction measures would require a significant amount of material input in Russia. In the present condition of the Russian economy this is practically impossible. For that reason, the establishment of risk levels of 10^?6 or less (fatalities per year) for the population living near major hazards plants (that would correspond to international practice) cannot be arranged for all industrial activities at present. Therefore, the following structure of zoning can be offered for individual risks. For existing potentially dangerous objects: (1) a risk level larger than 10^?4 deaths per year is a zone of inadmissible risk; (2) a risk level between 10^?4 and 10^?5 deaths per year is a zone of rigid risk control; (3) a risk level below 10^?5 deaths per year is a zone of acceptable risk. For new plants: the risk levels should be reduced one order of magnitude for each zone. Taking into account the results of the analysis of emergencies in Russia, the criteria of societal risk are also presented.     

Confidence,knowledge, and compliance with emergency evacuation

This article considers how risks are responded to through behavioral adaptations and avoidance strategies. We observe that such behavior can become totemistic and have a limited relationship to the risk it ostensibly answers to. Drawing upon examples such as recycling and original data from a study on drink‐spiking avoidance, the article sets out a new concept for discussing and understanding such risk‐related behavior: the ‘risk ritual’. We elaborate upon this concept in the article, identifying a number of tendencies in risk rituals and drawing upon anthropological and sociological work on the nature and uses of ritual. We compare the ‘risk ritual’ to religious and community rituals, exploring the connections between the former and the rain dance, religious ablutions, abstinence from eating meat on a Friday, and rite of passage ceremonies. Influenced by the cultural approach to risk, we argue that risk rituals, like rituals more generally, are shaped by social conditions, currents, and processes, such as the emphasis on personal responsibility for risk management and the desire to mark out the ‘sacred’ and the ‘profane’. The article concludes that ritualistic risk behavior is better viewed as functional rather than irrational.     

次贷危机后的保险业风险管理问题

2007年美国发生的次级贷危机再次将风险与风险管理的问题摆在了全球金融业面前,而以风险为主营业务的保险业更需要系统思考风险管理对于本行业健康运营的内在意义。本文从风险管理行为动机、非系统性风险的分散、系统性风险的控制三个方面分析了保险业影响危机发生及受到危机冲击的原因,进一步明确了今后保险业风险管理的发展方向,并提出通过建立合理目标、完善信息沟通机制和治理结构等为风险管理提供有效内部支持。     

Vector-valued coherent risk measures

We define (d,n)-coherent risk measures as set-valued maps from into satisfying some axioms. We show that this definition is a convenient extension of the real-valued risk measures introduced by Artzner et al. [2]. We then discuss the aggregation issue, i.e., the passage from valued random portfolio to valued measure of risk. Necessary and sufficient conditions of coherent aggregation are provided.Received: February 2004, Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 91B30, 46E30JEL Classification: D81, G31     

My computer is infected: the role of users’ sensation seeking and domain-specific risk perceptions and risk attitudes on computer harm

Literature has traditionally shown the potentially harmful consequences of risk-taking in a variety of domains. Less scholarly attention, however, has been directed to the study of risk-taking in the computer use domain. Using scanned data from 1902 computers, we sought to analyze the potentially harmful consequences that sensation-seeking and computer use risk perceptions and attitudes had on users’ computer vulnerability. Results of the study indicated that general sensation-seeking as well as computer use risk perceptions and risk attitudes were predictive of computer harm. The general measure of sensation-seeking was predictive of both risk perceptions and risk attitudes which in turn translated into the existence of malicious software in users’ computers.     

Risk perception and risk management in Norwegian aquaculture

This exploratory study seeks to provide empirical knowledge about fish farmers' risk attitudes, risk sources and risk management tools by presenting the results from a survey among Norwegian fish farming companies. The results show that fish farmers think of themselves as only moderately risk averse compared, for instance, to crop and livestock farmers. The most important sources of risk are considered to be future salmon prices, institutional risks and fish diseases, while keeping costs low is the most important risk management tool.     

Risk Management of Correlation Products

Trading units within the banking and dealer community that trade exotic instruments are well aware of the hazards of using traditional tools in analysing the risks resulting from positions taken in their specialised markets. The global risk management systems within these organisations have been slower to recognise the new risk profiles created by more recently traded exotic instruments. For traditional risks that are separable , the evaluation of risk at the individual trading units and the subsequent aggregation of risk across trading units captures the risks inherent in the portfolio. However, with non-traditional, non-separable risks, this division (by trading unit) and subsequent aggregation (by risk managers) of risks may obscure an increasing amount of risk found in the firm's trading operation.     

Risk perception and risk management in the Middle East market: theory and practice of multinational enterprises in Saudi Arabia

This exploratory study investigates the risk perception and risk management strategies of Western multinational enterprises in the Middle East. A sample of 49 German companies operating in Saudi Arabia provides the empirical setting for this research. The study reveals that cultural risk is assessed as more important in the business environment than political, financial, and economic risk. The most critical risk factors are not sufficiently included in the methodology of country risk measures, which are often used as a source for country‐specific risk information. In terms of risk management strategies, participating firms use mostly informal approaches rather than structured hedging or insurance products. Furthermore, we find that firm size has implications on the perception of some risk factors and for the level of risk management sophistication.     

Assessing risk-taking: what to measure and how to measure it

Abstract

Risk-taking has been a major field of interest for scientists and for applied purposes since decades. However, many researchers have noted that the current measurement instruments fail to show adequate validity and predictive power. Given the recent calls to develop new measures, this paper aims to highlight six key points that should be kept in mind when constructing or using measures of risk-taking concepts. Specifically, we encourage risk-taking scholars (a) to pay close attention to the terminology used in studies, (b) to distinguish measures of general and specific risk-taking, (c) to distinguish risk-taking from the appeal of risky activities, (d) to keep in mind the subjectivity of risk-taking, (e) to consider the measurement of passive risk-taking, and (f) to favour more realistic risk-taking tasks. Overall, these recommendations should help researchers to design and use more relevant risk-taking measures.