Earnings quality,bankruptcy risk and future cash flows

Prior research suggests that the quality of accruals may be compromised where the magnitude of accruals is abnormally high, due to the presence of errors in the accruals‐estimation process (Dechow and Dichev, 2002; Richardson, 2003). A consequence of this is that abnormal accruals may not map into realised future cash flows to the extent that would normally be expected of accruals data. Indeed, the association may be insignificant if abnormal accruals consist primarily of estimation noise. Our study investigates whether abnormal accruals for UK firms provide incremental insight into future cash flows. In particular, our paper may be viewed as a development of Subramanyam (1996). We find a significant positive association between abnormal accruals and one‐year‐ahead operating cash flows. This provides a rationale for the pricing of abnormal accruals by the market (Subramanyam, 1996; Xie, 2001) and suggests that abnormal accruals are not merely the products of noise in the accruals‐estimation process. However, our results are conditional upon the probability of one‐year‐ahead bankruptcy risk (Charitou et al., 2004). We also find that abnormal accruals possess small but significant explanatory power for future cash flows even when controlling for the disaggregation of accruals into individual items (Barth et al., 2001).     

Unexpected Accruals and Conditional Accounting Conservatism

Abstract:  This paper examines the impact of management discretion over accruals on conditional accounting conservatism, defined as the tendency of accountants to recognize bad news on a timelier basis than good news. Prior research suggests that conditional accounting conservatism reflected in earnings is mainly due to the accrual component of earnings, not the cash flow component of earnings. After decomposing total accruals into expected and unexpected accruals, I find that (1) conditional accounting conservatism reflected in accruals is mainly due to unexpected accruals; (2) the negative association between unconditional and conditional accounting conservatism is mainly attributable to unexpected accruals; and (3) firms with higher leverage exhibit conditionally more conservative accounting primarily through unexpected accruals. These results are robust to accrual models that take into account the systematic association between accruals and cash flows and their non-linearity and to the asymmetric persistence of earnings changes specification of conditional accounting conservatism. Taken together, these results suggest that managers exercise their discretion over accruals to expedite the recognition of bad news rather than good news.     

The pricing of accruals quality in credit default swap spreads

We examine the association between accounting information risk, measured with accruals quality (AQ), and credit spreads, primarily measured with credit default swap (CDS) spreads. Theoretically, AQ measures the precision with which accruals map into cash flows. Better AQ implies a more precise estimate of future cash flows and, we predict, a reduction in credit spreads due to resulting lower uncertainty regarding the ability to meet debt interest and principal payments. In support of this hypothesis, we find a negative relationship between AQ and CDS spreads whereby better AQ is associated with lower CDS spreads. Additionally, we investigate the components of total AQ and find that innate AQ is more strongly associated with CDS spreads than is discretionary AQ. We further show that AQ moderates the market's pricing of earnings: the relationship between earnings and CDS spreads weakens as AQ worsens. Together, our results indicate that accounting information risk is priced in credit spreads and that the CDS market responds not only to the level of earnings, but the quality thereof as well.     

What Determines the Variability of Accounting Accruals?

The variability of accounting accruals provides a measure of the normal level of managers accounting discretion and has important implications for event studies of earnings management. We examine how this measure is related to the economic factors including both firm characteristics and attributes of the disclosure environment. We show that the variability of accruals is related to firm size, leverage, variability of cash flows, operating cycle, growth, and other factors. Significant industry differences and temporal patterns are also found.     

Accruals, Cash Flows and the Post‐Earnings‐Announcement Drift

Abstract:   Several prior studies have shown that cash flows have significantly greater impact on stock prices than accruals. We examine the implications of these findings for the post‐earnings‐announcement‐drift anomaly. We argue that, if investors under‐react to earnings news, then the larger price impact of cash flows causes the cash flow component of earnings news to predict future returns better than the accruals component. Consistent with this argument, we show that unexpected cash flows are more positively related to future returns, than are unexpected accruals. Also, unexpected cash flows are found to predict future returns above and beyond that predicted by earnings surprises. Finally, we show that a strategy that decomposes earnings news into its components significantly outperforms strategies based on earnings news alone. The results support under‐reaction explanations for the drift.     

The Changing Landscape of Accrual Accounting

A fundamental property of accrual accounting is to smooth temporary timing fluctuations in operating cash flows, indicating an inherent negative correlation between accruals and cash flows. We show that the overall correlation between accruals and cash flows has dramatically declined in magnitude over the past half century and has largely disappeared in more recent years. The adjusted R ² from regressing (changes in) accruals on (changes in) cash flows drops from about 70% (90%) in the 1960s to near zero (under 20%) in more recent years. In exploring potential reasons for the observed attenuation, we find that increases in non‐timing‐related accrual recognition, as proxied by one‐time and nonoperating items and the frequency of loss firm‐years, explain the majority of the overall decline. On the other hand, temporal changes in the matching between revenues and expenses, and the growth of intangible‐intensive industries play only a limited role in explaining the observed attenuation. Finally, the relative decline of the timing role of accruals does not appear to be associated with an increase in the asymmetrically timely loss recognition role.     

The Usefulness of Direct and Indirect Cash Flow Disclosures

We investigate the ability of disclosed operating cash flow and indirect accruals components to explain annual returns for a sample of Australian firms. Consistent with claims made by accounting standard setters, we find evidence of significant explanatory power for disclosed operating cash flow components beyond aggregate operating cash flows when they also have significant incremental predictive power for future (one year ahead) operating cash flows. Accrual components also have incremental explanatory power for returns. In addition, we find evidence of significant explanatory power for operating cash flow components beyond estimates of the components (based on other financial statement disclosures) for firms with large differences between disclosed and estimated components.     

The Differential Persistence of Accruals and Cash Flows for Future Operating Income versus Future Profitability

Prior research provides evidence that a higher proportion of accrued relative to cash earnings is associated with lower earnings performance in the subsequent fiscal year. The result has been widely interpreted as indicative of higher levels of operating accruals relative to cash flows foreshadowing a subsequent earnings reversal, and thus signaling earnings management. We note, however, that earnings performance in prior studies is typically defined as one-year-ahead operating income divided by one-year-ahead invested capital, or a measure of profitability. We find that accruals are more highly associated than cash flows with invested capital in the denominator of the profitability measure. In contrast, accruals and cash flows have no differential relation to one-year-ahead operating income. The evidence is not consistent with accruals having a reversal effect on earnings. This suggests that the lower persistence of accruals versus cash flows may not be due to earnings management but may rather be due to the effect of growth on future profitability.     

Accruals quality and the incentive contracting role of earnings

This paper investigates the association between accruals quality and the usefulness of accounting earnings in incentive contracting. Accruals quality, which measures the precision with which accruals predict future cash flows, has two potential opposing effects on the noise in earnings as a measure of managerial performance. Specifically, higher quality accruals should decrease the deviations of earnings from future cash flows and increase the sensitivity of earnings to cash flows that are not attributable to managerial actions. My evidence indicates that better accruals quality is associated with a higher weight on earnings in compensation contracts, which suggests that accruals quality overall reduces the noise in earnings. I also find that the positive association between accruals quality and the weight on earnings is mainly driven by innate accruals quality rather than discretionary accruals quality. Therefore, accrual errors resulting from the volatility of the operating environment are a primary source of noise in earnings considered by compensation committees.     

Are Entrenched Managers’ Accounting Choices More Predictive of Future Cash Flows?

We examine the role manager entrenchment has on firms’ financial reporting quality. More specifically, we test whether entrenched managers’ reported accruals deviate from industry norms and whether entrenched managers’ abnormal accruals are more (or less) predictive of future cash flows. Consistent with implications from prior research, we find that firms with entrenched managers generally report lower levels of abnormal accruals (in an absolute sense), but the abnormal accruals utilized by entrenched managers are more predictive of future cash flows. Contrary to a more traditional view of manager entrenchment, our evidence suggests that entrenched managers report higher quality abnormal accruals. While prior research provides evidence that manager entrenchment is associated with negative economic outcomes, we argue that attempts to limit entrenchment are unlikely to improve financial reporting quality and may actually lower quality. Future corporate governance research should consider not only the level but also the quality of the association between accounting choices and manager entrenchment.     

Do core and non-core cash flows from operations persist differentially in predicting future cash flows?

This study investigates the persistence of cash flow components (core and non-core cash flows) using a cash flow prediction model. By extending the Barth, Cram, and Nelson (Account Rev 76(January):27–58, 2001) model, we examine the role of cash flow components in predicting future cash flows beyond that of accrual components. We propose a cash flow prediction model that decomposes cash flows from operations into core and non-core cash flow components that parallel the presentation and format of operating income from the income statement. Consistent with the AICPA and financial analysts’ recommendations, and as predicted, we find that core and non-core cash flows defined in our paper are differentially persistent in predicting future cash flows; and these cash flow components enhance the in-sample predictive ability of cash flow prediction models. We also analyze the association of in-sample prediction errors with earnings, cash flow and accruals variability. We find that disaggregating cash flows improve in-sample prediction, especially for large firms with high cash flows and earnings variability.

Earnings management of seasoned equity offering firms in Korea

We investigated 249 Korean seasoned equity offering (SEO) firms during the period 1995-1997 to determine if the SEO firms manage earnings in the year before a planned issue of seasoned equity stocks. Using three test methods (accrual difference, correlation, and sign-change), we found that the Korean firms contemplating SEOs in the following year do manage earnings particularly when their relative performances have been poor. The results are robust irrespective of control samples. Analysis of operating performances around SEOs shows that SEO firms tend to increase reported earnings in the year immediately preceding and the year of SEOs, but no differences were found in operating cash flows between the SEO firms and the control firms. By using a regression analysis for discretionary accruals, we found that SEO firms are more likely to manage earnings if the operating performances are poor and if the offer sizes are relatively large. Association tests between stock returns and discretionary accruals indicate that the market reacts positively to net income but negatively to discretionary accruals. The results indicate that the market correctly analyzes the cash flow implications of the SEO firms' opportunistic use of discretionary accruals.     

Do Stock Prices of Property Casualty Insurers Fully Reflect Information about Earnings,Accruals, Cash Flows,and Development?

This paper examines whether the stock prices of property and casualty (P&C) insurers fully reflect information contained in earnings, cash flows and accruals, and one particular accrual—development of loss reserves. The reserve for policy losses is a major accrual for P&C firms, requires substantial judgment and is the subject of unique disclosures that reveal the ex post error in management estimates. We find that investors underestimate the persistence of cash flows and overestimate the persistence of accruals for P&C insurers, but our evidence suggests the market does not underestimate the persistence of the development accrual.     

The Adjustment Process of Accruals: Empirical Evidence and Implication for Accrual Research

This study analyzes the intertemporal behavior of accruals and uses the results to offer some perspectives on models of accruals. Separate adjustment rates are estimated for total and managed accruals and further compared to assess the influence of managers on accrual adjustment. Analysis is further performed to test whether there is an industry-specific adjustment rate for either total or managed accruals. The results show that both the total and managed accruals follow a partial adjustment process rather than a pure-adjustment or random-walk process. Nonetheless, managed accruals exhibit longer adjustment length than total accruals in each industry sample. In addition, total and managed accruals appear to follow certain adjustment patterns that are industry-specific, consistent with the view that common industry practices and norms lead to benchmark adjustment rates to which industry firms conform. Based on the results showing that accruals exhibit lagged and industry-specific adjustments, an extension of the modified Jones model is proposed. The extended model incorporates lagged accruals and an industry accrual index in an attempt to exploit the lagged-adjustment and industry effects and, in that context, improve the temporal classification of accrual innovations. Simple tests show that the extended model achieves substantial improvements in specification over the modified Jones model.     

CEO's Operating Ability and the Association between Accruals and Future Cash Flows

This study investigates whether an individual CEO's operating ability, operationalized as the extent to which an individual CEO utilizes the company's assets efficiently to generate profits, explains the association between accruals and future cash flows. While this mapping can be driven by both the quality of accounting measurement and CEO operating ability, there is little empirical evidence on the latter link. After controlling for the CEO's accounting estimation ability, we find that the association between current period accruals and future cash flows is stronger when the CEO demonstrates superior operating ability. This suggests that a CEO's operating ability is an important determinant of the informativeness of current accruals for future cash flows.     

Auditor quality effects on the relationship between accruals,cash flows and equity returns: a variance decomposition analysis

In this paper, we examine the relative importance of the cash flow and accruals components of earnings in explaining the variation in UK company equity returns, together with the extent to which these relationships vary by auditor quality. We use a multivariate time-series approach that can be reconciled to a log-linear theoretical valuation model and, unlike the standard linear regression of returns on earnings components, accommodates time-varying discount rates. Based on a decomposition of the variance of equity returns, cash flows and accruals, our results indicate that both cash flow news and accruals news are important drivers of UK equity returns, although cash flows are more influential than accruals. We also find that variation in both earnings components has a more significant effect on returns for clients of large auditors. Finally, our results provide mixed evidence on the question of whether the impact of auditor quality is highest for the accruals component of earnings.     

Cash from operations and earnings management in Korea

Our study investigates the relationship between the operating performances of Korean industrial firms and the behavior of discretionary accruals during the period 1994-1997. We hypothesize that the degree of earnings management will depend on the firm operating performances. We construct 10 “cash from operations (CFO)” portfolios to test if there are systematic differences in discretionary accruals across portfolios.Four test methods (a mean accrual test, a correlation test, a regression analysis, and a sign-change test) are used to investigate if operating performances affect discretionary accruals differently. We compare three accrual estimation approaches (two discretionary accruals and total accruals) in testing the earnings management hypotheses.The results support the hypothesis that Korean industrial firms manage earnings. When operating performance is poor, the firms tend to choose income-increasing strategies. In addition, when operating performance is extremely poor, some firms tend to take a big bath, while some of the exceptionally well-performing firms tend to select income-decreasing strategies.     

Cross-sectional estimation of abnormal accruals using quarterly and annual data: effectiveness in detecting event-specific earnings management

This paper addresses certain methodological issues that arise in estimating abnormal (or discretionary) accruals for detection of event-specific earnings management. Unlike prior studies (e.g., Dechow, Sloan, and Sweeney, 1995; Guay, Kothari, and Watts, 1996) that rely primarily on time-series models, we focus on the specification of cross-sectional models of expected accruals using quarterly as well as annual data. Perhaps more importantly, we present a variation of the Jones model that is shown to be well specified for all cash flow levels. We show that the cross-sectional Jones model yields systematically positive (negative) estimates of abnormal accruals for firms whose cash flows are below (above) their industry median. Using mean squared prediction errors as well as simulation analysis, we show that our model is more powerful than the cross-sectional Jones model in detecting earnings management. In addition, we examine differences in the power of current accrual models in detecting earnings management across audited and unaudited quarters.     

The Usefulness of Long-Term Accruals

Though empirical evidence strongly supports the role of short-term operating accruals in improving operating cash flows as a measure of performance, there is little support or consensus with respect to the effect of long-term accruals. We provide evidence that long-term accruals do reduce timing and matching problems in cash flows. In return-earnings regressions, long-term accruals are found to improve earnings as a measure of firm performance, although not to the same extent as short-term accruals. Further, our analysis highlights differences in economic and statistical properties between short-term and long-term accruals and demonstrates how these differences impede the ability of long-term accruals to improve earnings as a performance measure in a return-earnings context. The incremental explanatory power of long-term accruals is shown to be hampered by the lack of present-value considerations in the existing accounting model, timeliness problems, and measurement error in the indirect method of computing cash flows and accruals.     

What do accruals tell us about future cash flows?

Our model, which is adapted from Feltham and Ohlson (Contemp Account Res 11:689–731, 1995) and Ohlson (Contemp Account Res 11:661–687, 1995) and extends Dechow and Dichev (Account Rev 77:35–59, 2002), characterizes the information about future cash flows reflected in accruals. It reveals investors can extract from accruals information about next period’s economic factor and the transitory part of one component of next period’s cash flow. The extent to which each accrual provides this information depends on whether the accrual aligns future or past cash flows and current period economics and whether it relates to the current or prior period. Thus each type of accrual has a different coefficient in valuation and forecasting cash flows or earnings. Each coefficient combines an information weight reflecting the information that accrual type provides and a multiple reflecting how that information is used in valuation and cash flow and earnings forecasting. The empirical evidence supports our main insight, namely that partitioning accruals based on their role in cash-flow alignment increases their ability to forecast future cash flows and earnings and explain firm value.