Adapting the APV valuation methodology and the beta gearing formula to the dividend imputation tax system

This paper adapts the APV valuation methodology and the formula for gearing beta to the Australian dividend imputation tax system. The APV formulation is shown to be able to be applied in the dividend imputation tax system by simply replacing the statutory tax rate with an effective tax rate in the calculation of the “cash flows”. The effect of the dividend imputation tax system on a company's value is shown to be easily bounded using the APV formulation by making the extreme assumption that imputation credits are either: fully distributed and fully valued by the market; or that they are worthless. This paper also quantifies the effect of changing the assumed value of imputation credits on: (i) the value of the interest tax shield of debt; and (ii) the levered, or equity, beta.     

Are imputation credits capitalised into stock prices?

We investigate whether imputation tax credits are capitalised into Australian stock prices by utilising discounted cash‐flow valuation models and examining the relation between earnings yields and imputation credit yields. While imputation credits are valuable to many investors, the evidence that they are reflected in share prices is at best mixed and largely unconvincing. Our results reveal that imputation credits fail to lower realised returns casting doubts over whether imputation credits are priced from the perspective of longer‐term buy‐and‐hold investors. If so, such investors can expect to fully benefit from their imputation credits, and imputation effects may not impact on the cost of capital.     

Cost of capital equations under the Australian imputation tax system

Since the introduction of the Australian imputation tax system, there have been problems both in the measurement of the market value of franking (imputation tax) credits and in their application to estimating cash flows and the cost of capital. In the present paper, we provide a convenient and robust resolution to the above problems in the context of an internally consistent set of equations for the cost of capital, asset valuation and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The equations apply under both classical and imputation tax systems and under differential taxation of dividends, capital gains and interest. The simple form of the CAPM presented here is shown to encompass more complex versions of the CAPM, which attempt to accommodate the effect of personal taxes. The valuation equations require an estimate of the market value of $1 of the firm's dividends, within which is embedded the market value of the imputation tax credits. Separate estimates of the value of imputation tax credits, or Officer's gamma factor, are not required.     

THE COST OF CAPITAL OF A COMPANY UNDER AN IMPUTATION TAX SYSTEM

One of the issues arising out of the introduction of an imputation tax for companies in Australia is the effect it is likely to have on the definition and measurement of a company's cost of capital. Insofar as there is a difference between the value of a dollar of franked relative to unfranked dividends, conventional definitions for the cost of capital are inappropriate and new definitions are required. This has implications for the measurement of a company's cost of capital and for the definition of net cash flows that are used in conjunction with the cost of capital. This paper sets out these definitions and an approach for measuring the cost of capital. The new definition of the cost of capital replaces the effective company tax rate T with T(l - γ) where γ is the value of personal tax credits. Further, the definition of the risk premium in the capital asset pricing model requires an adjustment for the capitalized value of personal tax credits to maintain consistency between the cost of capital and cash flows which are defined on an after-company tax but before-personal tax basis.     

Removing predictable analyst forecast errors to improve implied cost of equity estimates

Prior research documents a weak association between the implied cost of equity inferred from analyst forecasts and realized returns. It points to predictable errors in analyst forecasts as a possible cause. We show that removing predictable errors from analyst forecasts leads to a much stronger association between implied cost of equity estimates obtained from adjusted forecasts and realized returns after controlling for cash flow news and discount rate news. An estimate of implied risk premium based on the average of four commonly used methods after making adjustments for predictable errors exhibits strong correlations with future realized returns as well as the lowest measurement error. Overall, our results confirm the validity of implied cost of equity estimates as measures of expected returns. Future research using implied cost of equity should remove predictable errors from implied cost of capital estimates and then average across multiple metrics.     

The classical tax system,imputation tax and capital budgeting

Differences in the taxation systems in Britain, France, and some other European countries (which use the imputation system) compared with the USA and the Netherlands, among others (which use the classical tax system), mean that the cost of equity capital should be specified, using a capital asset pricing model methodology, in different ways. Under the imputation system its value should be net of personal taxes; under the classical tax system, it should be gross of personal taxes. Similarly the value of the tax shield on debt for input into adjusted present value calculations differs, being significantly greater under the classical tax system. Formulae are set out to enable the calculation of the magnitude of the tax shield readily to be undertaken.     

Share Valuation under Geometric Brownian Motion with a Poisson Imputation Tax Change

A share valuation model is developed on the basis of dividends following a geometric Brownian motion. An imputation tax system is chosen, although this can be collapsed into a classical system. The possibility of changes in tax rates and shareholder tax credits is introduced by means of a Poisson jump. Capital gains are assumed to be tax-free through either annual or other exemptions. Using Itô's Lemma, a new share valuation formula is derived. This is recast in terms of the cost of capital and the mean time to the fiscal shock.     

Types of investor uncertainty and the cost of equity capital

We jointly test the effects of two types of investor uncertainty, one related to future firm performance and unrelated to accruals (cash flow uncertainty) and one directly related to accrual estimation errors (accounting quality uncertainty). Distinct from prior studies, our uncertainty estimates are based on a matched‐firm design that minimizes the mechanical relationship between the two uncertainty variables. We find a strong negative relationship between cash flow uncertainty and multiple estimates of the cost of equity capital. With respect to accounting quality uncertainty, we find a strong positive association with both expected stock returns and implied costs of equity, but only in settings that control for cash flow uncertainty. Collectively, our results suggest the need to consider different types of investor uncertainty when examining how investor uncertainty affects the cost of equity capital.     

Beta Geared and Ungeared: Further Analysis of the Case of Active Debt Management

This paper extends previous work by Appleyard and Strong (1989) concerned with the implications of an active debt management policy (ADMP) for de-gearing a geared firm's equity beta. First, alternative derivations of the ADMP beta de-gearing formulae for an MM perfect capital market with corporation tax and for a world with corporation and personal taxes are presented. These derivations do not require the assumption of level perpetuity expected cash flows and therefore indicate a broader basis for the ADMP beta de-gearing formulae than previously demonstrated. Secondly, possible investor valuation errors from use of a PDMP (passive debt management policy) valuation methodology to value firms pursuing an ADMP are analysed in the context of an MM perfect capital market with corporation tax. Given constant (or zero) growth in the firm's expected unlevered cash flows, this analysis indicates that degearing errors from use of the PDMP beta de-gearing formula will only be associated with valuation errors if there is a change in the firm's target debt ratio and that the significance of such valuation errors will be largely dependent on the expected growth rate.     

The Cost of Equity Capital at the Corporate and Investor Levels Allowing a Rational Expectations Model with Personal Taxations

This paper argues that the conventional definition of the cost of equity at the corporate level is likely to be fundamentally flawed under conditions of personal taxation. A 'dimensionally consistent' definition is developed utilising the pioneering contributions of Auerbach and Elton and Gruber. Consequent benefits are straight-forward expressions for the cost of equity capital at the corporate level (for both retained earnings and new equity) as well as at the investor level (post personal tax) in terms of both the dividend discount and CAPM-type models, which are applicable to classical and imputation tax systems. A fundamental framework is thereby provided which succeeds in illuminating investor pesonal tax liabilities as they might be expected to impact on a firm's investment and related dividend policies.     

Climate risk: The price of drought

We document a significant positive relation between drought risk and the cost of equity capital. Our estimation shows that the cost of equity capital is 92 basis points higher for firms affected by severe drought conditions. We provide evidence that when firms are affected by droughts, firms with higher local institutional holdings exhibit a higher cost of equity capital. This result supports the well-known local bias of institutional investors, and suggests that diversification cannot fully eliminate the loss in wealth caused by droughts. Consistent with theoretical predictions, we find that drought duration and drought intensity further increase a firm's risk premium. However, for firms with diversified cash flows/investments, geographically dispersed business operations, and high cash holdings, the impact of drought on the expected return is significantly lessened. Overall, our findings show that investors require a higher rate of returns on firms affected by droughts and offer implications on how firms can mitigate the impact of droughts on their cost of capital.     

Auditor quality effects on the relationship between accruals,cash flows and equity returns: a variance decomposition analysis

In this paper, we examine the relative importance of the cash flow and accruals components of earnings in explaining the variation in UK company equity returns, together with the extent to which these relationships vary by auditor quality. We use a multivariate time-series approach that can be reconciled to a log-linear theoretical valuation model and, unlike the standard linear regression of returns on earnings components, accommodates time-varying discount rates. Based on a decomposition of the variance of equity returns, cash flows and accruals, our results indicate that both cash flow news and accruals news are important drivers of UK equity returns, although cash flows are more influential than accruals. We also find that variation in both earnings components has a more significant effect on returns for clients of large auditors. Finally, our results provide mixed evidence on the question of whether the impact of auditor quality is highest for the accruals component of earnings.     

Capital gains taxation and shareholder wealth in takeovers

Before December 1999, the capital gains of shareholders who sold their shares into Australian takeovers have been taxable irrespective of payment method. Subsequently, shareholders can elect to rollover capital gains in equity takeovers. We examine the effect of this change on the association between target shareholder capital gains and bidder and target firm shareholder wealth. The results indicate that prior to the regulatory change, cash consideration results in higher target shareholder returns for non‐taxation reasons. After the introduction of capital gains tax rollover relief, we find that target and acquiring firm shareholders earn lower returns when cash consideration is offered to shareholders with greater capital gains.     

Estimating Private Equity Returns from Limited Partner Cash Flows

We introduce a methodology to estimate the historical time series of returns to investment in private equity funds. The approach requires only an unbalanced panel of cash contributions and distributions accruing to limited partners and is robust to sparse data. We decompose private equity returns from 1994 to 2015 into a component due to traded factors and a time‐varying private equity premium not spanned by publicly traded factors. We find cyclicality in private equity returns that differs according to fund type and is consistent with the conjecture that capital market segmentation contributes to private equity returns.     

Professionalism vs Commercialism: The Association Between Non-Audit Services (NAS) and Audit Independence

This paper examines the relative information content of earnings and cash flows for security returns using a methodology incorporating contextual factors which may affect earnings and cash flow response coefficients. For our UK dataset, we provide evidence that the earnings coefficient is related to earnings permanence, growth and firm size and that the cash flow coefficient may be related to growth. Although our results emphasise the value relevance of earnings, they also suggest that both contemporaneous and prior period cash flow are positively related to security returns and that market-to-book and market value of equity have predictive power for returns.     

Valuation and Cost of Capital Formulae with Corporate and Personal Taxes: A Synthesis Using the Dempsey Discounted Dividends Model

This paper advances expressions for the firm's valuation and cost of capital as a function of leverage. The framework is arrived at by introducing leverage in Dempsey's (1996 and 1998) cost of capital framework and is applicable in the context of both classical and imputation tax systems. The framework reveals that both the historical stability of corporate leverage and the firm's choice of financing structure as revealed by the Pecking Order hypothesis are consistent with a tax-based explanation.     

Two Different Ways of Treating Corporate Cash in FCF Valuations—and the Importance of Getting the Cost of Capital Right

The methods for calculating free cash flow presented in texts on financial statement analysis and valuation appear to be very different from those in corporate finance texts, causing some confusion among academics as well as practitioners. Financial statement analysis and valuation texts generally begin by valuing just the enterprise operations—that is, the entity that engages in the firm's primary revenue‐generating activities—and then adding back the value of its cash holdings and other financial assets. The corporate finance approach is typically to value all the assets together, including financial assets that are not used in the production of the goods and services provided by the firm. Using a simple example, the authors show that the valuation of the equity ownership of the firm should be the same for both methods of calculating free cash flow, provided the analyst makes the appropriate adjustments to the method for calculating the cost of capital (WACC) used to discount forecasted free cash flows to a present value.     

Valuation with share repurchases and personal taxes

We derive a consistent valuation approach that integrates the interdependent effects of cash dividends, share repurchases and active debt management while considering personal taxes. The valuation approach is based on the assumption that a predetermined proportion of the flow to equity is used for share repurchases instead of cash dividends. Additionally, we examine the effects of share repurchases on the cost of equity by deriving appropriate adjustment formulae. Furthermore, we run simulations to investigate the valuation differences caused by the distribution of excess cash via cash dividends or share repurchases. The results show that share repurchases have a significant positive effect on equity market value.     

How Firms Make Capital Expenditure Decisions: Financial Signals, Internal Cash Flows, Income Taxes and the Tax Reform Act of 1986

This paper empirically assesses the determinants of future net capital expenditures for a broad cross-section of COMPUSTAT firms from 1973 to 1989. We explore three general categories of factors expected to affect investment: (1) external equity financing, (2) internally generated accounting information, and (3) tax incentives. We find that external financing and information plays a role in that both positive stock returns and equity issuances indicate future increases in investment. The results suggest that high stock prices not only lower the cost of capital, but also signal good investment opportunities. Accounting information about internal sources and uses of funds are also important in the investment decision. In particular, net income and depreciation are positive indicators of future investment while there is a tradeoff between the payment of dividends and investment. Further, positive changes in available cash liquidity also motivate future investment. While taxes are not important in the investment decision on average, we find that firms with previously higher income taxes invested substantially more in 1985 and 1986. This coincides with the repeal of the investment tax credit and the accelerated depreciation schedules in the Tax Reform Act of 1986. We view this as evidence that federal tax policy in the 1980's induced firms with high income tax obligations to accelerate capital expenditures just before the favorable tax treatment of capital expenditures was eliminated.     

Net share issues and the cross‐section of equity returns under a dividend imputation tax system

Despite considerable empirical evidence reporting a negative relationship between net share issuance and subsequent returns, it remains unresolved whether this anomaly is explained by risk or investor irrationality. This study examines the net share issuance anomaly using seasoned equity offerings before and after the introduction of an imputation tax system. We report robust evidence of a negative relationship between net share issuance and returns post‐imputation, but no relationship pre‐imputation. Our results provide evidence to support the international pervasiveness of the net share issuance anomaly, but more importantly suggest that this anomaly may be explained by risk.