我国网络借贷平台的运行模式与监管体系

我国网络借贷平台运行模式存在线上交易型、线下交易型等五种类型,多种形态的运行模式共存致使我国对网络信贷平台的监管存在监管主体缺失、缺乏监管手段、监管法规落后等问题。当前监管方式与征信体系没有形成有效的联动,相应的监管配套制度也相对缺失。加强与现行金融监管体制、征信制度、第三方托管制度、互联网准入制度的联动机制,明确我国网络借贷平台的监管主体,实现对网贷利率、资金安全与流动性、网贷平台日常经营网络以及借贷平台的自律监管是促进网络借贷平台健康发展的有效途径。     

浅谈P2P网络借贷犯罪侦查与防范

P2P网络借贷是一种新型的民间小额互联网金融融资模式,其在满足个人资金需求、发展个人信用体系和提高社会闲散资金利用率三个方面有着很大的便利,可以利用网络平台实现借贷双方的现实需求。但是随着互联网信息技术的发展和征信体系的不健全,也会出现一些金融风险,导致金融犯罪多发。为稳定互联网金融秩序,保护公民财产安全,文章从P2P网络借贷的界定出发,探讨网络金融犯罪存在的类型,以期找寻解决P2P网络借贷犯罪的途径并提出侦控和防范对策。     

网络借贷监管制度的反思及其理念的重塑

作为微型金融和小额信贷形式的新锐代表,网络借贷被视为实现普惠金融和金融公平价值的有力工具。网络借贷是金融创新的产物,兼具金融及互联网的相关特性,意味着网络借贷自始与风险相生相伴。由于金融创新与监管的动态博弈关系,需要准确定位监管层在网络借贷发展中的角色。良好的监管尺度需要兼顾“效率”与“安全”,对互联网金融的监管总体上应当体现开放性、包容性与有效性。在具体制度设计上,应当通过转变监管模式、完善法律体系、提升专业能力、健全征信体系来回应。     

融资约束下金融互助模式的演进——从民间金融到网络借贷北大核心CSSCISSCI

金融互助是指在群体内部成员之间相互借贷的一种合作形式。面对收入的波动,个人有平滑消费的需求,需要与他人开展金融互助;随着经济的发展,亦需要不断扩大互助范围并拓展新的互助方式。从民间金融范畴的私人借贷、合会,发展到正规金融范畴的信用合作,代表了传统金融互助模式的演进过程。然而,这些模式所依赖的亲缘关系和社区关系因人口流动频繁而日趋衰弱,同时互联网技术的进步降低了借贷双方的信息和搜寻成本,网络借贷这种金融互助模式因而产生。网络借贷通过社区的虚拟化突破了传统社区的地理限制,极大地拓展了金融互助的边界,但难以利用传统的社区监督来约束成员的行为。为防范互联网背景下金融互助行为的风险,可以从实名认证、征信体系建设等多方面入手,并强调其金融互助属性。     

民营征信:我国个人征信体系的生力军

2015年年初,人民银行要求8家民营机构遵照征信业相关法规进行准备,为其正式涉足征信行业打开大门.可以预见,阿里、腾讯、中诚信等民营机构的“转正”,将与央行征信机构优势互补,并成为征信行业的生力军. 目前,我国零售、电子商务、互联网金融等业态快速发展,小微企业信贷需求愈加强烈.但是,传统的央行征信体系已经无法满足业界需求,亟须新生力量加入.首先,央行征信体系的数据采集源于正规金融机构,并不涵盖非正规金融、通信、零售等机构的相关信用数据.     

P2P网络借贷平台的羊群行为研究*--基于Logistic模型的实证分析

随着我国民间借贷日趋活跃,P2P网络借贷平台发展方兴未艾。对P2P网络借贷平台的羊群行为进行系统的实证研究具有现实意义。本文将影响P2P网络借贷平台后续投标的所有变量划分为4个维度,包括标的特征、信用特征、个人特征和往期借款,从这四个维度中选取了17个自变量构建Logistic回归模型,然后基于“拍拍贷”的1642条不同借款者的当前借款项目数据,利用Logistic回归方法分析了当前投标次数对获得后续投标可能性的影响。研究发现,当前投标次数能够对获得后续投标的可能性产生显著的正向影响,由此证明P2P网络借贷平台存在羊群行为。因此,需要从完善征信体系建设入手,降低P2P网络借贷平台的信息不对称性,避免羊群行为的盲目性给网络借贷平台资金安全带来的危害。     

网络借贷行业发展指数研究——基于山东省的调研

从规模性、覆盖率、安全性三个方面综合考虑网络借贷行业发展影响因素,其中安全性指数中引入接入网络金融征信系统(NFCS)网贷机构比例作为度量,并借助变异系数法设置二级指标权重,由此构建网络借贷业发展评价指标体系.结论显示规模指数一直比较平稳,覆盖率指数处于稳步增长的趋势,但安全指数由于最近一年内的问题平台数量不断增加的原因一路下降.这说明网贷行业未来发展仍应以风险控制为首要任务.     

基于P2P个人借贷平台的信用风险识别

P2P网络借贷信用风险对投资人的放贷决策有明显的干扰作用,能否有效识别来自借款人的信用风险,成为P2P网络借贷平台未来发展的关键.本文以P2P网络借贷平台拍拍贷2016年2月和3月发布的借款标的数据为样本,运用Probit模型,对P2P网络借贷的信用风险进行识别.研究结果表明:投资者能够识别来自借款人的信用风险.信用等级越高,风险越低,利率越高,风险越低;男性的信用风险要高于女性,而借款人是否婚配对于识别其信用风险有很大帮助;手机认证和户口认证在识别信用风险方面有同样的功效,央行征信认证报告有助于降低风险.     

个人网络借贷平台的法律风险分析

个人网络借贷的本质是民间借贷,传统民间借贷的双方关系因网络借贷平台的介入而变得复杂。文章针对网络借贷平台展开分析,认为个人网络借贷平台的法律属性为信息中介机构,其面临的风险主要包括刑事、民事等法律风险,前者以涉非法集资犯罪为主,后者主要包括居间义务的违反产生的违约风险和侵犯借贷主体隐私权及商业秘密的侵权风险。通过明确平台的监管机构,加强对资金安全和信息披露的监管,可以降低个人网络借贷平台的法律风险。     

银行系P2P网络借贷竞争力分析及发展建议

P2P网络借贷基于互联网技术改造传统信贷模式,专注于小微金融服务,其蓬勃发展,逐渐侵蚀传统商业银行的市场.商业银行顺应潮流,陆续推出了各自的P2P网络借贷业务.本文对银行系P2P网络借贷在金融服务与互联网技术两方面竞争力进行了分析,并对商业银行推进经营转型和提升市场竞争力提出一些具体的战略建议.     

Macroeconomic Effects of Credit Deepening in Latin America

We augment a standard dynamic general equilibrium model with financial frictions, in order to quantify the macroeconomic effects of the credit deepening process observed in Latin America in the 2000s—most notably in Brazil. In the model, a stylized banking sector intermediates credit from patient households to impatient households and entrepreneurs. Motivated by the Brazilian experience, we allow the credit constraint faced by households to depend on labor income. Our model is designed to isolate the effects of credit deepening through demand-side channels, and abstracts from potential effects of credit supply on total factor productivity. In the calibrated model, credit deepening generates only modest above-trend growth in consumption, investment, and GDP. Since Brazil has experienced one of the most intense credit deepening processes in Latin America, we argue the quantitative effects that hinge on the channels captured by the model are unlikely to be sizable elsewhere in Latin America.     

The impact of monetary policy on the financing behaviour of firms in the Euro area and the UK

Abstract

According to the ‘broad credit view’ bank-dependent firms are more strongly affected by monetary contractions than firms with access to non-bank forms of external finance. Within the credit view the bank lending channel focuses on the special role of bank loans, and predicts that monetary contractions reduce loan supply to firms facing information problems. However, the ‘relationship lending channel’ argues that, especially in bank-based economies, bank-dependent firms have close ties with banks, which may reduce the sensitivity of their use of bank debt to monetary shocks. The sensitivity of corporate debt structures to changes in the monetary policy stance is analysed using a sample of 22,000 firms in the Euro area and the UK. Evidence is found for the credit view, the relationship lending channel, but not for the bank lending channel.     

Can Listing Information Indicate Borrower Credit Risk in Online Peer-to-Peer Lending?

Effective assessment of borrower credit risk is the greatest challenge for peer-to-peer (P2P) lenders, especially in the Chinese market, where borrowers lack widely recognized credit scores. In this study, based on credit data from 2012 to 2015 from the website Renrendai.com, a logit model was used to assess borrower credit risk and predict the probability of default in every out-of-sample listing. The predicted probability of default was then compared with the actual default observation of default. The empirical results show that the logit model can evaluate the credit risk of P2P borrowers, and the model reduces the default rate to 9.5%, compared with the total sample default rate of 16.5%.     

Borrower Self-Selection,Underwriting Costs,and Subprime Mortgage Credit Supply

In the U.S., households participate in two very different types of credit markets. Personal lending is characterized by continuous risk-based pricing in which lenders offer households a continuous distribution of borrowing possibilities based on estimates of their creditworthiness. This contrasts sharply with mortgage markets where lenders specialize in specific risk categories of borrowers and mortgage supply is stepwise linear. The contrast between continuous lending for personal loans and discrete lending by specialized lenders for mortgage credit has led to concerns regarding the efficiency and equity of mortgage lending. This paper sheds both theoretical and empirical light on the differences in the two credit markets. The theory section demonstrates why, in a perfectly competitive credit market where all lenders have the same underwriting technology, mortgage credit supply curves are stepwise linear and lenders specialize in prime or subprime lending. The empirical section then provides evidence that borrowers are being effectively sorted based on risk characteristics by the market.     

Banks' Strategic Responses to Supervisory Coverage: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

U.S. bank supervisors conduct frequent and comprehensive loan-level exams of the syndicated loan market. These exams are costly as adverse exam loan ratings may increase supervisory scrutiny and reduce bank capital. Relying on an unexpected change in supervisory coverage in 1998, we estimate that the cost of bank credit for borrowers excluded from supervision decreases by approximately 18%. We show that large lenders use the coverage change to exclude deals from supervision, especially riskier deals. Strikingly, small lenders shift their lending to increase supervisory coverage, suggesting the potential importance of supervision in reducing information asymmetries within lending syndicates.     

网贷模式的信用风险探析征信视角下 P2P

近年来,我国 P2P 网络贷款作为互联网金融创新模式获得爆发式增长,但同时在信息不对称、征信主体权益保护等方面存在的信用风险问题也日益突出。为促进 P2P 网络贷款等互联网金融的发展,应加强征信管理与服务,将 P2P 网贷平台纳入征信管理范畴,强化 P2P 网贷平台信用管理和平台资金流动监管,加大网贷平台信用信息保护力度。     

Predicting Prepayment and Default Risks of Unsecured Consumer Loans in Online Lending

Online lending provides a means of fast financing for borrowers based on their creditworthiness. However, borrowers may undermine this agreement due to early repayment or default, which are two major concerns for the platform and lenders, since both affect the profitability of a loan. While default risk is frequently focused on credit scoring literature, prepayment has received much less attention, despite a higher prepayment rate being observed in online lending when compared with default. This article uses multivariate logistic regression to predict the probability of both the underlying prepayment and default risks. Real consumer lending data of 140,605 unsecured loans provides evidence that these two events have their own distinct patterns. We consider systemic risk by incorporating macroeconomic factors in modeling and address the influence of economic conditions, which are lessons learnt from the last financial crisis. The out-of-sample validation has shown that both prepayment and default can be accurately predicted. This article highlights the necessity of regulations on prepayment given the fast growing online lending market.     

网络借贷的发展现状、风险分析及其法律规制

近年来，随着网络日益普及，网络借贷作为一种新兴民间借贷方式在我国悄然兴起并得到迅速发展。但是由于法律制度与有效监管的缺失以及社会信用体系的不完善，其自由发展也潜藏着一些较大的风险隐患。文章介绍了国内网络借贷的发展现状，分析了网络借贷的主要风险，并在借鉴发达国家成熟经验的基础上，提出了完善我国网络借贷法律规制的相关建议。     

Payday Loan Choices and Consequences

High‐cost consumer credit has proliferated in the past two decades, raising regulatory scrutiny. We match administrative data from a payday lender with nationally representative credit bureau files to examine the choices of payday loan applicants and assess whether payday loans help or harm borrowers. We find consumers apply for payday loans when they have limited access to mainstream credit. In addition, the weakness of payday applicants’ credit histories is severe and longstanding. Based on regression discontinuity estimates, we show that the effects of payday borrowing on credit scores and other measures of financial well‐being are close to zero. We test the robustness of these null effects to many factors, including features of the local market structure.     

以征信体系建设为基础 加快社会信用体系的重建

本文指出信用是现代市场经济的基石。目前中国社会严重的信用缺失源于社会转型过程中道德理念的缺失,而信息不对称所产生的逆向选择和道德风险以及对失信行为惩戒制度的缺位加剧了社会信用缺失的严重性和危害性,因此构造良好的社会信用体系是建设有中国特色社会主义市场经济的当务之急。我们应该加快企业和个人征信体系的建设,以此来促进整个社会信用体系的重建和完善。