Hedging with Two Futures Contracts: Simplicity Pays

We propose to use two futures contracts in hedging an agricultural commodity commitment to solve either the standard delta hedge or the roll‐over issue. Most current literature on dual‐hedge strategies is based on a structured model to reduce roll‐over risk and is somehow difficult to apply for agricultural futures contracts. Instead, we propose to apply a regression based model and a naive rules of thumb for dual‐hedges which are applicable for agricultural commodities. The naive dual strategy stems from the fact that in a large sample of agricultural commodities, De Ville, Dhaene and Sercu (2008) find that GARCH‐based hedges do not perform as well as OLS‐based ones and that we can avoid estimation error with such a simple rule. Our semi‐naive hedge ratios are driven from two conditions: omitting exposure to spot price and minimising the variance of the unexpected basis effects on the portfolio values. We find that, generally, (i) rebalancing helps; (ii) the two‐contract hedging rules do better than the one‐contract counterparts, even for standard delta hedges without rolling‐over; (iii) simplicity pays: the naive rules are the best one–for corn and wheat within the two‐contract group, the semi‐naive rule systematically beats the others and GARCH performs worse than OLS for either one‐contract or two‐contract hedges and for soybeans the traditional naive rule performs nearly as well as OLS. These conclusions are based on the tests on unconditional variance ( Diebold and Mariano, 1995 ) and those on conditional risk ( Giacomini and White, 2006 ).     

Ex Ante Hedging Effectiveness of UK Stock Index Futures Contracts: Evidence for the FTSE 100 and FTSE Mid 250 Contracts

Ex ante hedging effectiveness of the FTSE 100 and FTSE Mid 250 index futures contracts is examined for a range of portfolios, consisting of stock market indexes and professionally managed portfolios (investment trust companies). Previous studies which focused on ex post hedging performance using spot portfolios that mirror market indexes are shown to overstate the risk reduction potential of index futures. Although ex ante hedge ratios are found to be characterised by intertemporal instability, ex ante hedging performance of direct hedges and cross hedges approaches that of the ex post benchmark when hedge ratios are estimated using a sufficient window size.     

Risk minimization in stochastic volatility models: model risk and empirical performance

In this paper the performance of locally risk-minimizing delta hedge strategies for European options in stochastic volatility models is studied from an experimental as well as from an empirical perspective. These hedge strategies are derived for a large class of diffusion-type stochastic volatility models, and they are as easy to implement as usual delta hedges. Our simulation results on model risk show that these risk-minimizing hedges are robust with respect to uncertainty and misconceptions about the underlying data generating process. The empirical study, which includes the US sub-prime crisis period, documents that in equity markets risk-minimizing delta hedges consistently outperform usual delta hedges by approximately halving the standard deviation of the profit-and-loss ratio.     

THE HEDGING EFFECTIVENESS OF FOREIGN CURRENCY FUTURES

This study provides an initial analysis of the hedging potential of the foreign currency futures markets. Numerous studies exist on the pricing efficiency and hedging effectiveness of the foreign currency forward markets, but little research exists on the foreign currency futures market. An adequate price history has only recently become available to carry out such an investigation. Minimum risk hedges and hedging effectiveness measures are presented for five currencies: the British pound, German mark, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Analysis indicates the relative desirability of positions in futures contracts to minimize the risk of spot currency exposure. Results also show hedging effectiveness increases with the investment horizon.     

Currency hedging and corporate governance: A cross-country analysis

This paper examines the impact of the strength of governance on firms' use of currency derivatives. Using a sample of firms from 30 countries over the period 1990 to 1999, we find that strongly governed firms tend to use derivatives to hedge currency exposure and overcome costly external financing. On the other hand, weakly governed firms appear to use derivatives mostly for managerial reasons. These results are robust to alternative measures of corporate governance, various subsamples, the use of foreign denominated debt as an alternative strategy to hedge currency exposure, and a potential selection bias. Overall, the results serve as the first comprehensive evidence of the impact of firm- and country-level corporate governance on firms' use of derivatives.     

Comparative analysis of accounting treatments for derivatives

This paper provides educators with a classroom example or a self-study tutorial to teach Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 133 (FAS 133), Accounting for Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities. The example can be used in courses such as intermediate or advanced accounting that discuss derivative instruments or investments topics or in a training program that focuses on implementing FAS 133. This teaching material can help students gain technical knowledge of FAS 133. It can also help develop critical thinking skills in analyzing the impact of an accounting standard on a firm's operation. A scenario based on a futures contract used by a natural gas company to hedge price fluctuations of its gas inventory is applied across four cases to show the impact of derivative designation on the accounting treatment and to provide a comparative analysis of the economic results from using different accounting treatments for the derivative. Case 1 and Case 2 demonstrate hedge accounting under FAS 133 by designating the derivative as a fair value hedge and a cash flow hedge, respectively. Case 3 illustrates accounting for a derivative that is not designated as a hedge. Case 4 demonstrates the impact of not entering or using a derivative to mitigate market risk. A downloadable spreadsheet on the author's website can be customized for use in the classroom.     

Persistence of dollarization after price stabilization

Credit contracts in developing countries are often denominated in foreign currencies, even after many of these economies succeeded in controlling inflation. This paper proposes a new interpretation of this apparent puzzle based on the demand for insurance against real shocks: the fact that devaluations occur more frequently in adverse states of the world provides a motive for holding dollar assets. This approach implies a complementarity between the optimal monetary policy and the currency denomination of contracts. When a large proportion of liabilities is denominated in a foreign currency, the optimal exchange rate volatility is low, which reinforces the demand for dollar assets.     

Hedge Accounting and its Consequences on Portfolio Earnings – A Simulation Study

Abstract

In this paper, I analyze the consequences of cash flow hedge accounting on portfolio earnings of firms focusing on main changes between IFRS 9 and IAS 39. For this purpose, I develop a simulation study which illustrates the quantitative effects on the accounting entries according to the currently applicable hedge accounting methods. It is especially addressed what accounting differences arise and how these distinctions may affect a firm’s earnings. Furthermore, I examine to which firms early switching becomes especially desirable or burdensome. This information is particularly useful to managers and investors. The paper shows that portfolio earnings are affected differently. In the model, IAS 39 may lead to higher or lower earnings for increasing deviations between foreign and domestic interest rates. Additionally, sensitivity to volatility changes varies among the methods. Moreover, a partly ineffective hedging relationship does not necessarily decrease earnings compared to its fully effective counterpart.     

Corporate Hedging: The Relevance of Contract Specifications and Banking Relationships

This article examines the contribution of hedging to firm value and the cost of hedging in a unified framework. Optimal hedging and firm value are explicitly linked to firm risk, the type of debt covenants and the relative priority of the hedging contract. It is shown that in some cases hedging is possible only if the counterparty to the forward contract also holds a significant portion of the debt. Also, the spread in the hedging contract reduces the optimal amount of hedging to less than the minimum-variance hedge ratio. Among other results this article elucidates why some firms hedge using forward contracts while other firms hedge in the futures markets, as well as why higher priority forward contracts are more efficient hedging vehicles.     

Do commodities make effective hedges for equity investors?

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate whether commodities are effective hedges for equity holders. We employ three different methodologies to calculate time varying hedge ratios. First, we examine time-varying hedge ratios and how much portfolio risk can be reduced relative to a long position in the S&P 500. We calculate hedge ratios from realized variances and covariances; second, we estimate a recursive multivariate GARCH (BEKK) model and calculate the hedge ratios from the estimated covariances; and thirdly, we calculate the hedge ratios by estimating recursive OLS regressions. The results of our paper are very clear. First, commodities are not effective hedges for the S&P 500. Equity market investors and asset managers looking for a way to manage and reduce portfolio risk will be well advised to search for alternative hedges for the S&P 500 than commodities. Second, our results do not support the claim that commodities were a good hedge for the equity market during the financial crisis.     

BASIS VOLATILITY: IMPLICATIONS FOR HEDGING

Most hedges placed in futures markets must be lifted before contract expiration, which necessitates incurring “basis risk.” The focus of this paper is on quantifying such risk as a function of the timing of a hedge, its duration, distance from contract expiration, hedge life, and other market-observable variables. The development of basis-risk profiles provides a hedger with estimates of hedging risks that reasonably can be expected before the actual placement of hedges, thus serving as a useful input in the hedging decision.     

Currency hedging for multinationals under liquidity constraints

This paper examines the impact of liquidity risk on the behavior of a risk-averse multinational firm (MNF) under exchange rate uncertainty in a two-period dynamic setting. The MNF has operations domiciled in the home country and in a foreign country, each of which produces a single homogeneous good to be sold in the home and foreign markets. To hedge the exchange rate risk, the MNF has access to one-period currency futures and option contracts in each period. The MNF is liquidity constrained in that it is obliged to terminate its risk management program in the second period whenever the net loss due to its first-period hedge position exceeds a predetermined threshold level. We show that the MNF optimally sells less (more) and produces more (less) in the foreign (home) country in response to the imposition of the liquidity constraint. We show further that the liquidity constrained MNF optimally uses the currency option contracts in the first period for hedging purposes in general, and opts for a long option position if its utility function is quadratic in particular.     

Mining Sector Currency Risk Management Strategies: Responses to Foreign Currency Accounting Regulation

This study investigates the impact of Approved Accounting Standard ASRB 1012, Foreign Currency Translation, on the currency risk management strategies of firms in the Australian mining industry. ASRB 1012 increased the responsiveness of most mining companies' reported earnings to exchange rate movements, and it was predicted that firms would alter their capital structures in response to the increased accounting exposure. The results suggest that mining companies decreased their proportionate levels of long-term foreign debt and increased their share capital and/or reserves to mitigate the effects of the standard on their contracts. This information is useful to standard-setters seeking an awareness of the potential micro and macro-economic effects of their pronouncements.     

Conditional currency hedging

I propose a simple and robust approach to hedge currency risk that can be directly applied by international investors in diverse asset classes. Compared to current mean-variance approaches, it is robust to overfitting and thus better anticipates risk-minimizing currency positions for global equity, bond, and commodity investors out of sample. Furthermore, correlations among currencies, equities, and commodities can be predicted by lagged implied foreign exchange volatility. This allows investors to dynamically adjust their hedges, resulting in significantly lower risk compared to other hedging alternatives while maintaining or even improving Sharpe ratio, particularly during crisis periods.     

Country and currency diversification of bond investments: do they really make sense for Swiss investors?

The inclusion of hedged or unhedged foreign currency bonds within a strategic asset allocation is a crucial decision which should be analyzed carefully. The goal of this paper is to provide a contribution to this analysis by focusing particularly on the time horizon of the investment. Results are analyzed from the perspective of a Swiss investor. We find that over the last 21 years, investing in bonds denominated in Swiss Francs has been clearly less efficient in terms of risk-adjusted returns than investing in a hedged global bond portfolio. For short-term investors, we find robust evidence against the hypothesis of investing in unhedged foreign currency bonds. The picture changes dramatically, however, when we consider an investment horizon of 6 years and the normal case of balanced portfolios including also equities and domestic bonds. In this case, the optimal strategy for the period we analyzed would have been to hedge only the exposure to US dollar bonds.      

Foreign Currency Derivatives versus Foreign Currency Debt and the Hedging Premium

This paper compares the effect on firm value of different foreign currency (FC) financial hedging strategies identified by type of exposure (short‐ or long‐term) and type of instrument (forwards, options, swaps and foreign currency debt). We find that hedging instruments depend on the type of exposure. Short‐term instruments such as FC forwards and/or options are used to hedge short‐term exposure generated from export activity while FC debt and FC swaps into foreign currency (but not into domestic currency) are used to hedge long‐term exposure arising from assets located in foreign locations. Our results relating to the value effects of foreign currency hedging indicate that foreign currency derivatives use increases firm value but there is no hedging premium associated with foreign currency debt hedging, except when combined with foreign currency derivatives. Taken individually, FC swaps generate more value than short‐term derivatives.     

The effects of SFAS 133 on foreign currency exposure of US-based multinational corporations

This study examines the change in foreign currency exposure of US-based multinational corporations (MNCs) upon implementation of SFAS 133—Disclosure of Derivative Instruments. We attempt to answer the question of whether this accounting requirement, which seeks to eliminate earnings surprises associated with derivatives, actually impacts earnings volatility and hedging strategies of exporting firms. Our results indicate that firms who were hedged prior to SFAS 133, i.e., those which managed their exposure using operational hedges, derivatives, or both, were able to decrease exposure to exchange rates following SFAS 133. However, those that were hedged prior to SFAS 133 and remained hedged following SFAS 133 did so without significantly changing their imbalances, i.e., without using operational hedges. These firms also experienced an increase in earnings volatility and a decrease in earnings predictability, as predicted by critics of the regulation. However, market value does not change following SFAS 133, implying that investors do not equate accounting regulation changes and EPS volatility with changes in cash flow.     

Earnings management,incentive contracts and private information acquisition

This paper analyzes the optimal design of compensation contracts in the presence of earnings management incentives, and its interplay with investors’ information acquisition decisions. We consider a setting in which compensation contract is based on both accounting earnings and stock price when an agent engages in predictable, pernicious earnings management and stock price is endogenously determined in a Noisy Rational Expectations Equilibrium (NREE) that reflects both the public information from reported earnings and a costly, noisy signal privately acquired by investors. We show that an increase in the precision of the firm’s financial reporting system could reduce the informativeness of stock price and exacerbate the agency problem by inducing lower productive effort and higher earnings management, implying that the firm may not choose a more precise financial reporting system.     

An analysis of the value of cash flow statements of New Zealand pension schemes

Superannuation (pension, retirement) schemes (plans) are required to report their earnings on a fair-value basis, reflecting recent shifts toward fair-value reporting in financial reporting. Fair-value earnings of such schemes include realised earnings and unrealised changes in values of assets and liabilities (unrealised earnings). This study examines the relation between components of fair-value earnings (realised and unrealised) and cash flows of 161 New Zealand defined benefit schemes for the financial year 1998. The findings of the study include that realised earnings are negatively associated with unrealised earnings and positively associated with cash flows from operations, but no association is found between unrealised earnings and cash flows from operations. This suggests that fair-value reporting has reduced the informational disparity between realised earnings and operating cash flows and therefore the reporting of cash flows information may not provide users with different information from reported in realised earnings. However, the results suggest that unrealised earnings provide additional information to users.     

Managing earnings risk under SFAS 133/IAS 39: the case of cash flow hedges

Whereas empirical studies suggest that firm hedging is influenced by accounting standards such as SFAS 133 and IAS 39, the nature of earnings risk management remains a puzzle. I develop a model that shows how non-financial firms that prefer predictable earnings jointly optimize their hedging strategy and the choice between fair-value and hedge accounting. I also examine the implications of these decisions for earnings predictability under SFAS 133/IAS 39. In this model, which has two accounting periods, earnings uncertainty arises from economic shocks and accounting mismatches. The specific influence of accounting mismatches is isolated with two benchmarks, one for firm hedging (cash flow hedging) and another for an accounting system that fully complies with the matching principle. In this forward-looking analysis, most firms significantly decrease the hedging of long-term earnings when faced with persistent price dynamics. Under non-persistent price dynamics, the levels of long-term earnings hedging are only slightly reduced. Therefore, the influence of accounting mismatches on firm hedging is highly dependent on the economic environment in which a firm operates, which suggests that the potential influence of accounting on firm hedging may be difficult to identify in archival studies. The analysis also offers a forward-looking perspective on the changing properties of earnings since the late 1970s that supplements the existing body of archival accounting studies. For example, under persistent price dynamics, forward-looking short-term earnings volatility may increase tenfold or more for cash flow hedging under fair-value accounting compared with a perfectly matched accounting system.