Earnings Volatility and Earnings Prediction: Analysis and UK Evidence

This paper confirms that US evidence of a negative relationship between earnings persistence and earnings volatility applies to UK firms over the period 1991–2010. Our analytical framework highlights the possibility that this result may reflect downward estimation bias in earnings persistence (and persistence of cash flow and accruals components of earnings) related to transitory earnings elements. Out‐of‐sample forecasts, based on models estimated for earnings volatility quartiles, suggest significant improvement in earnings forecasts for lower volatility firms. The results also suggest that the negative association between earnings persistence and volatility may be due to both estimation bias and variation in core earnings persistence.     

Relationship Between Analyst Forecast Properties and Equity Bid‐Ask Spreads and Depths Around Quarterly Earnings Announcements

Abstract:   We study the relationships between three variables which proxy for the ex‐ante level of information asymmetry – forecast dispersion, forecast revision volatility, and the level of analyst coverage, and equity bid‐ask spread and depth changes around quarterly earnings releases. Kim and Verrecchia (1994) suggest that earnings releases increase the level of information asymmetry and lower the level of liquidity in the security market. Using both an OLS regression framework and a simultaneous equations model, we examine whether equity bid‐ask spreads increase and depths decrease as the level of information asymmetry increases. Our results indicate that spreads are higher (relative to a non‐event period) around earnings announcements when information asymmetry is more pronounced; however, depths are lower only on the day following the announcement when there is greater information asymmetry. Relative spreads have a significant positive relation with both forecast dispersion and revision volatility and a significant negative relation with analyst coverage. Relative depths have a significant negative relation with forecast dispersion and a significant positive relation with analyst coverage. Our findings indicate that the equity specialist adjusts both spreads and depths when confronting informed traders around earnings releases and that these adjustments are more pronounced when the level of information asymmetry is greater.     

Non‐operating earnings and firm risk*

We find that non‐operating earnings reduce total earnings volatility, stock price volatility, idiosyncratic risk, and crash risk. The risk‐reducing effects of non‐operating earnings are higher than those of operating earnings for risk measures based on stock market data. Non‐operating earnings serve to mitigate risks among firms with operating losses, high financial leverage, high growth uncertainty, and low‐ability managers.     

Supplier Financing and Earnings Quality

In this paper we investigate the effect of earnings quality on supplier credit in a sample of small and medium‐sized firms. After controlling for other determinants of trade credit, we show that firms whose earnings present lower variability, higher smoothing and predictability, and higher accruals quality have access to more trade credit from suppliers. This association suggests that earnings attributes associated to lower volatility and higher precision with respect to cash flows facilitate access to trade credit.     

Asset Disposal as a Method of Real Earnings Management: Evidence from the UK

We examine asset sales as a method of real earnings management around the benchmarks of loss avoidance and last year's earnings. Evidence is reported of asset sales to boost or reduce earnings near the benchmark of last year's earnings. For the zero earnings benchmark our results are moderated by the opening balance of accruals: only firms with high levels of accruals use asset sales to boost earnings to avoid a loss and only firms with low levels of accruals use asset sales as part of a big bath. We suggest that firms with high accrual balances find it difficult to use additional income-increasing accruals but find it more convenient to write off accruals rather than sell assets to artificially reduce earnings. International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are associated with reduced use of asset sales for gains and especially with reduced asset sales for losses. We ascribe this to IFRS introducing additional judgement and estimation in relation to the valuation of both long-lived and current assets on a recurring basis.     

The Pricing of Relative Performance Based Incentives for Executive Compensation

Japanese firms report both parent-only and consolidated financial statements. Because of the unique business environment in Japan, there is a widely held view that parent-only data provides a better means for assessing the value of the entire firm. We find that both parent-only and subsidiary earnings are important in predicting future consolidated earnings. However, while stock prices accurately reflect the persistence of parent-only earnings, the Japanese stock market appears to underestimate the persistence of subsidiary earnings, causing a significant positive relation between changes in subsidiary earnings in year t and stock returns in year t +1. This relation between subsidiary earnings and future stock returns does not persist beyond year t 7plus;1. Taking a long (short) position in firms with large, positive (negative) changes in subsidiary earnings results in an average annual abnormal return of 7.06% with positive returns in 12 of the 13 years in the test period.     

Earnings volatility,ambiguity, and crisis-period stock returns

Financial crises are marked by substantial increases in ambiguity where prices appear to decouple from fundamentals. Consistent with ambiguity-based asset pricing theories, we find that ambiguity concerns are more severe for firms with higher earnings volatility, causing investors to demand a higher ambiguity premium for such firms. While there is no relation between earnings volatility and stock returns under normal conditions, there is a significant negative relation between crisis-period stock returns and prior earnings volatility. The effect is stronger in firms with low institutional ownership and low analyst following, consistent with ambiguity concerns being greatest amongst firms with unsophisticated investors.     

Volatility of accounting earnings

The theoretical derivation of the volatility of accounting earnings is an important topic. Not only does it concern the uncertainty in earnings measurement, but it also allows for an objective comparison between different accounting allocation procedures. An accounting allocation that yields a lower volatility of earnings can be desirable because it makes periodic earnings better estimates of underlying long-term earnings of a firm over time. Based on this information, accounting professionals can make more rational judgements of the most appropriate accounting method to be used in preparing financial reports. This paper shows how to calculate the volatility of earnings under uncertainty across a range of different scenarios.     

The forward E/P ratio and earnings growth

Valuation theories predict a negative relation between the earnings-to-price (E/P) ratio and future earnings growth, but prior studies have produced conflicting results. Using a growth measure that incorporates loss firms, this paper shows that the negative relation exists in the long term, but not in the short term. The results also show a U-shaped relation between the forward E/P ratio and earnings risk. Compared with high forward E/P firms which are inherently financially distressed, low forward E/P firms exhibit even higher incidence of loss and larger growth volatility in subsequent years. The wide distribution of earnings growth in the lowest forward E/P portfolio indicates that this portfolio includes not only star firms that generate the strongest earnings growth, but also firms that report the most negative earnings growth. This paper shows that the forward E/P ratio is a stronger predictor of future growth than the conventionally used trailing E/P ratio.     

A Comparison of Earnings Management Between KSE Firms and KOSDAQ Firms

Abstract:   This study investigates differences in earnings management practices of Korea Stock Exchange (KSE) firms and KOSDAQ (a Korean version of the NASDAQ market) firms during the period of 1996–1997. A sample of 1,256 KSE and 577 KOSDAQ firm‐year observations is used to compare earnings management practices of firms listed in the two different stock exchanges. The results of the study reveal that KOSDAQ firms tend to more actively manipulate earnings to avoid losses than KSE firms. KOSDAQ firms generally tend to increase reported earnings more aggressively than KSE firms when their operating cash flows are poor, and play down their reported earnings more when their operating cash flows are exceptionally good. The results of the study are quite robust in the sense that more aggressive earnings management practices of KOSDAQ firms persist even when operating cash flows are controlled.