Is the Euro-zone on the Mend? Latin American examples to analyze the Euro question

Several European countries face challenges reminiscent of those faced by the emerging economies of Latin America. The economic booms in some peripheral Euro-zone countries financed by large capital inflows; the credit and asset price booms and then the busts including Sudden Stops in capital flows; the strong interaction between sovereign debt and domestic banking systems; the role of foreign banks and contagion; and all in the context of a fixed exchange rate, are familiar plotlines for Latin American audiences. For those Euro-zone countries that built up large Euro-denominated external liabilities, Latin America’s experience is particularly relevant and worrisome. Still, Europe may be in a better position to navigate a path out of the crisis given cooperative mechanisms that were absent in Latin America, particularly the availability of massive liquidity support. Nonetheless, while such support buys time, it does not guarantee success. This paper argues that reflecting on Latin America’s experience provides useful lessons for Europe to improve the chances for a successful resolution.     

Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach

This paper models dependence with switching-parameter copulas to study financial contagion. Using daily returns from five East Asian stock indices during the Asian crisis, and from four Latin American stock indices during the Mexican crisis, it finds evidence of changing dependence during periods of turmoil. Increased tail dependence and asymmetry characterize the Asian countries, while symmetry and tail independence describe the Latin American case. Structural breaks in tail dependence are a dimension of the contagion phenomenon. Therefore, the rejection of the correlation breakdown hypothesis should not be considered, without further investigation, as evidence of a stable dependence structure.     

An empirical analysis of herd behavior in global stock markets

This paper examines herding behavior in global markets. By applying daily data for 18 countries from May 25, 1988, through April 24, 2009, we find evidence of herding in advanced stock markets (except the US) and in Asian markets. No evidence of herding is found in Latin American markets. Evidence suggests that stock return dispersions in the US play a significant role in explaining the non-US market’s herding activity. With the exceptions of the US and Latin American markets, herding is present in both up and down markets, although herding asymmetry is more profound in Asian markets during rising markets. Evidence suggests that crisis triggers herding activity in the crisis country of origin and then produces a contagion effect, which spreads the crisis to neighboring countries. During crisis periods, we find supportive evidence for herding formation in the US and Latin American markets.     

Contagion effect in financial markets after the South-East Asia Tsunami

Powerful earthquakes may cause heavy damage to the financial markets of individual countries (regions), and may even spillover to other countries (regions). Using 26 international stock indexes and exchange rates, this study examines whether any contagion effect occurred across financial markets after the strong earthquake in South-East Asia on December 26, 2004. Using heteroscedasticity biases based on correlation coefficients to examine the existence of the contagion effect, this study shows that no individual country stock market suffered from the contagion effect, but that the foreign exchange markets of some countries (namely India, Philippines and Hong Kong) did suffer from the contagion effect.     

Assessing stock market dependence and contagion

This paper assesses evidence of the linkages and contagion among important stock markets in Latin America (Brazil, Mexico and Argentina), Europe (UK and Germany), Asia (Japan and Singapore) and the USA from 6 September 1995 to 19 April 2013. To accomplish this task, this paper combines copula modelling with time-varying parameters and pair-copula composition of multiple dependence. The bivariate analyses show an asymmetric dependence between the stock markets as well as contagion. In addition, this work proposes a method to assess the linkages and contagion between two stock markets which takes into account the effects of a third stock market. In applying this method, conditioned on the USA market, most of the evidence of contagion between the Latin American or European markets disappears, but important dependence levels still remain.     

Adjustment patterns to commodity terms of trade shocks: The role of exchange rate and international reserves policies

We analyze the way in which Latin American countries have adjusted to commodity terms of trade (CTOT) shocks in the 1970–2007 period. Specifically, we investigate the degree to which the active management of international reserves and exchange rates impacted the transmission of international price shocks to real exchange rates. We find that active reserve management not only lowers the short run impact of CTOT shocks significantly, but also affects the long run adjustment of REER, effectively lowering its volatility. We also show that relatively small increases in the average holdings of reserves by Latin American economies (to levels still well below other emerging regions current averages) would provide a policy tool as effective as a fixed exchange rate regime in insulating the economy from CTOT shocks. Reserve management could be an effective alternative to fiscal or currency policies for relatively trade closed countries and economies with relatively poor institutions or high government debt. Finally, we analyze the effects of active use of reserve accumulation aimed at smoothing REERs. The result support the view that “leaning against the wind” is potent, but more effective when intervening to support weak currencies rather than intervening to slow down the pace of real appreciation. The active reserve management reduces substantially REER volatility.     

Globalization,exports, and effective exchange rate indices

This paper offers a new way of compiling effective exchange rate indices, which is then shown to perform generally better in prototype equations explaining total real exports than other published indices. Researchers can use this method to compile effective exchange rates, real or nominal, readily for any country. The generally superior performance, based on cointegration tests using data from four major economies, four Latin American countries, and four South East Asian countries, suggests the proposed index which uses GDP weights rather than trade weights, is more appropriate in a highly globalized world. Intensified globalization in the past two decades appears indicated by the higher elasticities of exports with respect to the real effective exchange rate over time.     

Dual Exchange Rates in Europe and Latin America

This article uncovers some important empirical regularitiessurrounding the operation of formal dual exchange rates in Europeand Latin America in the 1970s and 1980s. Although there areparallels between the European and Latin American experiences,there are also interesting differences in terms of the sizeand nature of the distortion created by two official exchangerates; the response of the distortion to foreign interest rates,real commercial exchange rates, and domestic budget deficits;and the motives for adopting this exchange rate regime. Empiricalwork on dual exchange rate regimes is made difficult by thetransitory nature of these regimes and by frequent changes ininstitutional practices.     

A cospectral analysis of exchange rate comovements during Asian financial crisis

Comovements of exchange rates before and during Asian financial crisis are examined using cross-spectral methodology. The paper proposes and implements a simple frequency-domain-based test for contagion that avoids biases of the correlation breakdown tests used in the extant literature. The Asian crisis is found to be manifest in greater comovements along high-frequency components. Calculated changes in the high-frequency portion of the covariance indicate a contagion for 48 out of the possible 66 pairs of countries in the sample.     

Tracking exchange rate management in Latin America

One way to track exchange-rate deviations from its long-run value is to examine numerical patterns in exchange rates to see if those patterns appear to have been subjected to some degree of policy management. We apply Benford's Law to exchange rates in Latin American countries, computing and comparing the distribution of exchange-rate observed values with those of Benford's Law. For most cases we find that the exchange rate for the US dollar does not satisify Benford's Law, however this law holds when the euro is considered. This result may be explained by the fact that these countries are characterized for having different degrees of dollarization and intervention in the US dollar forex market while there is almost no policy intervention in the euro forex market. Our approach is an alternative view of how these characteristics play a role inducing deviations with respect to an implied equilibrium exchange rate.     

Equity Market Comovement and Contagion: A Sectoral Perspective

This paper takes an asset pricing perspective to investigate the equity market comovement and contagion at the sector level during the period 1990-2004 across the regions of Europe, Asia, and Latin America. It examines whether unexpected shocks from a particular market, or group of markets, are propagated to the sectors in other countries. The results confirm the sector heterogeneity of contagion. This implies that there are sectors that can still provide a channel for achieving the benefits of international diversification during crises despite the prevailing contagion at the market level. In addition, the results lend support to the importance of financial links in the propagation of contagion.     

Financial contagion intensity during the COVID-19 outbreak: A copula approach

The sudden and rapid spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has had a severe impact on financial markets and economic activities all over the world. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the existence and intensity of financial contagion during the COVID-19 outbreak. We use daily series of stock indexes of 10 Asian countries (Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Vietnam, Australia and China) and 4 American countries (the United-States, Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina) over the period starting from January 1st, 2014 to June 30th, 2021. Based on a copula approach, the results show that all studied markets are affected by the COVID-19 outbreak and the presence of financial contagion for all American and Asian countries. The results also show that contagion is more intense for American countries than Asian ones. These findings have practical implications, especially for investors, risk managers, and policy makers. The latter should continue to provide liquidity to the international market during this pandemic.     

Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Long- and Short-Term Determinants

This article focuses on the determinants of the large portfolioflows from the United States to Latin American and Asian countriesduring 1988–92. Cointegration techniques reveal that bothdomestic and global factors explain bond and equity flows todeveloping countries and represent significant long-run determinantsof portfolio flows. The article also investigates the dynamicsof portfolio flows by estimating seemingly unrelated error-correctionmodels. Global and country-specific factors are equally importantin determining the long-run movements in equity flows for bothAsian and Latin American countries, while global factors aremuch more important than domestic factors in explaining thedynamics of bond flows. U.S. interest rates are a particularlyimportant determinant of the short-run dynamics of portfolio,especially bond, flows to developing countries.     

The international transmission of interest rate shocks: The Federal Reserve and emerging markets in Latin America and Asia

This paper analyzes the effects of changes in the U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Funds rate on emerging countries' interest rates using high frequency (weekly) data. I also investigate how changes in the U.S. term structure affect short term rates' differentials. Other shocks include changes in the U.S. dollar–Euro exchange rate, changes in the international price of oil, risk ratings, and the degree of capital mobility. The results indicate that there is a strong and fairly rapid transmission of changes in the Federal Funds rate into interest rates in the Latin American countries in the sample. This effect is equally large in the Asian nations in the long run. The adjustment path is different across the two regions, however. Adjustment is very fast and cyclical in Latin America; it is gradual and slower in East Asia.     

Stock market cycles, financial liberalization and volatility

In this paper we analyze the cycles of the stock markets in four Latin American and two Asian countries, and we compare their characteristics. We divide our sample in two subperiods in order to account for differences induced by the financial liberalization processes of the early 1990s. We find that cycles in emerging countries tend to have shorter duration and larger amplitude and volatility than in developed countries. However, after financial liberalization Latin American stock markets have behaved more similarly to stock markets in developed countries whereas Asian countries have become more dissimilar. Concordance of cycles across markets has increased significantly over time, especially for Latin American countries after liberalization.     

Inflationary Rigidities and Orthodox Stabilization Policies: Lessons from Latin America

Orthodox stabilization programs in Latin American countrieshave been notoriously unsuccessful in combating inflation, despitethe imposition of stringent cuts in government deficits. Inmost cases inflation came down only slowly and temporarily,with concomitant declines in growth and employment. The Bolivianprogam, one of the only Latin American successes, is contrastedwith those of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. The problemsof dealing with chronic inflation are compared with those ofhyperinflationary countries, and the influence of price andwage rigidities, expectations, and credibility is explored.The study shows that fiscal restraint is a necessary but notsufficient condition for success, and that sound managementof nominal variables (the exchange rate and money supply) arealso necessary. The critical role of credibility is linked withprice and wage rigidities in the chronic inflation countries,whereas the unsustainability of hyperinflation is seen to increasethe credibility of and thus the potential for successful stabilizationprograms.     

Fiscal shocks and real exchange rate dynamics: Some evidence for Latin America

This paper analyses the effects of fiscal shocks in selected Latin American countries using a two-country model for output, labour input, government spending and relative prices. Dynamic simulation techniques are then applied, in particular to shed light on the possible effects of fiscal imbalances on the real exchange rate. Using quarterly data over the period 1980-2006, we find that in a majority of cases fiscal shocks are the main driving force of real exchange rate fluctuations.     

Empirical relationship between macroeconomic volatility and stock returns: Evidence from Latin American markets

Emerging market stock returns have been characterized as having higher volatility than returns in the more developed markets. But previous studies give little attention to the fundamentals driving the reported levels of volatility. This paper investigates whether dynamics in key macroeconomic indicators like exchange rates, interest rates, industrial production and money supply in four Latin American countries significantly explain market returns. The MSCI world index and the U.S. 3-month T-bill yield are also included to proxy the effects of global variables. Using a six-variable vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the study finds that the global factors are consistently significant in explaining returns in all the markets. The country variables are found to impact the markets at varying significance and magnitudes. These findings may have important implications for decision-making by investors and national policymakers.     

Latin America in the rearview mirror

Latin American countries are the only Western countries that are poor and that are not gaining ground on the U.S. This paper evaluates why Latin America has not replicated Western economic success. We find that this failure is primarily due to TFP differences. Latin America's TFP gap is not plausibly accounted for by human capital differences, but rather reflects inefficient production. We argue that competitive barriers are a promising channel for understanding low Latin TFP. We document that Latin America has many more international and domestic competitive barriers than do Western and successful East Asian countries. We also document a number of microeconomic cases in Latin America in which large reductions in competitive barriers increase Latin American productivity to Western levels.     

Internationalization and the capital structure of firms in emerging markets: Evidence from Latin America before and after the financial crisis

This study examines the impact of internationalization on the capital structure of firms in emerging markets before and after the financial crisis of 2008, with evidence from five countries in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Peru). We find that before the financial crisis, Latin American MNCs are characterized by lower debt levels than purely domestic firms. However, after the financial crisis, we find that the MNCs are characterized by higher debt levels. This finding suggests that after the financial crisis, the Latin American MNCs (like many firms) may be taking advantage of their access to low interest rates in the global capital markets.