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1.
Ren-Raw Chen Hsien-Hsing Liao Tyler T. Yang 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,36(1):121-140
Due to the complex prepayment behavior, mortgage contracts and their derivatives are generally priced using Monte Carlo simulations.
The typical approach used by the industry, which involves simulating interest rates under the risk-neutral measure and applying a physically measured prepayment function, is subject to the problem of internal inconsistency. This is the first paper that directly investigates
the potential impact of this issue. Following the general equilibrium setting by Cox, Ingersoll and Ross, we incorporate the
market risk price parameter to derive the physical interest rate process from an observed yield curve. This allows us to model
mortgage values under the consistent physical measures of interest rates and prepayment functions. By analyzing a default-free
Ginnie Mae MBS, we find that the mixed measures lead to slower prepayment rate estimates and overpriced mortgage securities
by approximately 5%. Further, there can be substantial biases in the duration and convexity measures depending on market condition
and the particular security of interest. The internal inconsistency also leads to biased predictions of both expected and
stressed returns for different investment horizons. Depending on the particular security, the bias in expected and stressed
returns can be either positive or negative. These biases in risk estimates can introduce misallocation of risk-based capital
and/or failure in hedging the market risk of a mortgage-related portfolio.
相似文献
Tyler T. YangEmail: |
2.
Enterprise risk management in financial groups: analysis of risk concentration and default risk 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Nadine Gatzert Hato Schmeiser Stefan Schuckmann 《Financial Markets and Portfolio Management》2008,22(3):241-258
In financial groups, enterprise risk management is becoming increasingly important in controlling and managing the different
independent legal entities in the group. The aim of this paper is to assess and relate risk concentration and joint default
probabilities of the group’s legal entities in order to achieve a more comprehensive picture of a financial group’s risk situation.
We further examine the impact of the type of dependence structure on results by comparing linear and nonlinear dependencies
using different copula concepts under certain distributional assumptions. Our results show that even if financial groups with
different dependence structures do have the same risk concentration factor, joint default probabilities of different sets
of subsidiaries can vary tremendously.
相似文献
Stefan SchuckmannEmail: |
3.
4.
Brent W. Ambrose Yildiray Yildirim 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,37(3):281-298
Previous research either assumes default free leases or leases subject to default risk using a structural approach. However,
structural credit risk models suffer from a common criticism that the firm’s asset value process is unobservable. We develop
a reduced form credit risk model for leases that avoids making assumptions regarding unobservable asset valuation processes.
Furthermore, we assume a correlated market and credit risk that provides us with a simple analytic formula for valuing defaultable
lease contracts. Numerical analysis reveals that tenant credit risk can have a substantial impact on the term structure of
leases. Finally, we use the model to demonstrate the implied lease term structure for a set of retail and financial firms
in the Fall of 2000.
相似文献
Yildiray YildirimEmail: |
5.
Christoph Hinkelmann Steve Swidler 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,36(1):37-52
This paper examines the use of futures contracts to hedge residential real estate price risk. We examine whether existing
futures contacts can effectively be used to offset volatility in national house prices. Little evidence of any simple systematic
relation between national prices and futures prices is found. Since house prices are not easily replicated with a portfolio
of existing futures contracts, a further implication is that the Chicago Mercantile’s introduction of a financial asset whose
value reflects house prices will help complete the market. Nevertheless, the success of the CME’s new derivative contracts
may be limited in light of state and regional house price correlations.
相似文献
Steve Swidler (Corresponding author)Email: |
6.
In their paper “Spectral Risk Measures: Properties and Limitations”, Dowd et al. (J Financ Serv Res 341:61–75, 2008) introduce exponential and power spectral risk measures as subclasses of spectral risk measures (SRMs) to the literature, and claim that they are subject to three serious limitations: First, for these subclasses, the spectral risk may be counterintuitively decreasing when the user’s risk aversion is increasing. Second, these subclasses, and power SRMs in particular, become completely insensitive to market volatility when the respective parameters of risk aversion tend to their lower and upper boundaries. Third, exponential SRMs exhibit constant absolute risk aversion, while constant relative risk aversion better meets the empirical evidence. Consequently, “users of spectral risk measures must be careful to select utility functions that fit the features of the particular problems they are dealing with, and should be especially careful when using power SRMs.” (p. 61). In this comment, we show that the findings of Dowd et al. (J Financ Serv Res 341:61–75, 2008) suffer from misinterpretations and wrong conclusions. 相似文献
7.
Value relevance of value-at-risk disclosure 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
Chee Yeow Lim Patricia Mui-Siang Tan 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2007,29(4):353-370
The SEC issued FRR No. 48 in 1997 to enhance public disclosure of firms’ exposures to market risk. We examine whether the
quantitative value-at-risk (VAR) estimates disclosed by 81 non-financial firms during the period 1997–2002 are value-relevant
using the earnings-returns relation. The empirical results indicate that high VAR is associated with weaker earnings-returns
relation. Further analysis shows that VAR is positively and significantly associated with future stock return volatility.
Our evidence suggests that investors perceive the earnings of firms with substantial market risk exposure to be less persistent,
and adjust the future abnormal earnings for the higher risk exposure. Thus, this results in a lower expected rate of return.
相似文献
Chee Yeow LimEmail: |
8.
Bank Competition,Risk, and Subordinated Debt 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
Jijun Niu 《Journal of Financial Services Research》2008,33(1):37-56
This paper studies a dynamic model of banking in which banks compete for insured deposits, issue subordinated debt, and invest
in either a prudent or a gambling asset. The model allows banks to choose their level of risk after the interest rate on subordinated
debt is contracted. We show that requiring banks to issue a small amount of subordinated debt can reduce their gambling incentives.
Moreover, when equity capital is more expensive than subordinated debt, adding a subordinated debt requirement to a policy
regime that only uses equity capital requirements is Pareto improving.
相似文献
Jijun NiuEmail: |
9.
This paper explores empirically the usefulness of credit default swap (CDS) prices as market indicators. The sample of reference
entities consists of large, internationally active German banks and the observation period covers 3 years.
By analysing the explanatory power of three risk sources: idiosyncratic credit risk, systematic credit risk and liquidity
risk, we gain important insights into modeling the dynamics of CDS spreads. The impact of systematic risk, for example, has
three components; one is related to the overall state of the economy, another related to the risk of the internationally active
banking sector, and the third is an unobservable systematic factor.
Default probabilities, inferred from a tractable reduced form model for CDS spreads, are compared with expected default frequencies
from the Moody’s KMV model. The results lend empirical support to the hypothesis that structural models can be less informative
than reduced-form models of CDS spreads in the case of banks with major investment banking activities as the leverage loses
explanatory power.
Although the CDS market appears to have matured over the observation period, during certain periods premiums for liquidity
risk can increase substantially thus limiting the value of CDS spreads as market indicators. We conclude that equity prices
and CDS premia should be considered together to fully exploit the information content of both market indicators and to mitigate
their respective drawbacks.
相似文献
Agnieszka SosinskaEmail: |
10.
Using the representative agent approach as in Kaplow (Am Econ Rev 82:1013–1017, 1992b), this paper shows that providing tax
deductions for the individual’s net losses is socially optimal when the insurer faces the risk of insolvency. We further show
that the government should adopt a higher tax deduction rate for net losses when the insurer is insolvent than when the insurer
is solvent. Thus, tax deductions for net losses could be used to provide an insurance for individuals against the insurer’s
risk of insolvency. These findings could also be used to explain why a government provides supplementary public insurance
or government relief. Finally, we discuss that, if the individuals are heterogeneous in terms of loss severity, loss probability,
or income level, providing a tax deduction for the individual’s net losses may not always achieve a Pareto improvement, and
cross subsidization should be taken into consideration.
相似文献
Larry Y. TzengEmail: |
11.
Our aim of this research is to propose a model which estimates implied relative credit reliability from the yield spread of
defaultable bonds and evaluates their spread risk. We introduce “yield spread term-quality surface” (YSTQS) which is defined
on the space of duration and credit reliability of the issuers, and express their yield spread. First, we review the general
pricing theorem of defaultable bonds with unpredictable recovery in the no-arbitrage context based on the external hazard
rates. Second, we show that the dynamics of state variables determine the shape of the YSTQS, and they drive the YSTQS if
the loss-adjusted hazard rates are described by a function of them. Finally, we show an empirical analysis of our model with
daily yield spread, duration, and the credit ratings of corporate bonds.
相似文献
Tomoaki ShoudaEmail: |
12.
Terry Hallahan Robert W. Faff Karen L. Benson 《Journal of Financial Services Research》2008,33(3):205-220
In this paper we investigate the tournament induced risk-shifting behavior of Australian “multi-sector growth funds”. We apply
a regression-based methodology and examine tournaments based on the calendar year and the financial year. In our core analysis
we find evidence in favor of Taylor’s (J Econ Behav Organ 1455:1–11, 2003) risk shifting tournament hypothesis for financial year-end tournaments. Apart from the standard tournament
hypothesis we also report a range of findings regarding stability; fund age; and fund size. Support for the Taylor hypothesis
generally continues across these variations as well.
相似文献
Terry HallahanEmail: |
13.
U.S. banking regulators have proposed a bifurcated system of capital regulation where the largest, internationally active
banking organizations would be subject to significantly more risk sensitive regulatory capital requirements than are currently
in place, while most others would remain subject to the current rules. The proposed new capital regime has the potential to
affect the competitive landscape among banking institutions, particularly in the area of residential mortgage lending. We
analyze the potential competitive effects of the proposed, bifurcated regulatory capital system on competition in the residential
mortgage market from the perspective of the theory of regulatory capital arbitrage. We then apply the theory and available
evidence to perform some benchmark calculations that suggest a significant, potential shift of market share and income to
the largest banking institutions in the mortgage market.
相似文献
James R. Follain (Corresponding author)Email: |
14.
Juerg Syz Paolo Vanini Marco Salvi 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,36(1):23-35
Economists have forcefully argued for the introduction and use of property derivatives as a hedge against house price risk
(e.g. Shiller and Weiss, J. Real Estate Finance Econ., 19(1):21–47, 1999). The rationale for these financial instruments seems clear, as many households are heavily invested in
housing and standard financial instruments offer a poor hedge. In practice, however, most of the property derivatives available
have been targeted to meet the needs of institutional investors, not those of owner-occupiers. Building on the recent launch
of the first Swiss property derivative, we here propose index-linked mortgages tailored to retail consumers. The payments
of these mortgages depend on the corresponding housing market performance. We further price the instruments, discuss the stabilization
of the homeowner’s net wealth, and quantify the expected decrease in the mortgage default risk achieved by this immunization
effect.
相似文献
Juerg SyzEmail: |
15.
This paper develops a theory of a firm’s hedging decision with endogenous leverage. In contrast to previous models in the
literature, our framework is based on less restrictive distributional assumptions and allows a closed-form analytical solution
to the joint optimization problem. Using anecdotal evidence of greater benefits of risk management for firms selling “credence
goods” or products that involve long-term relationships, we prove that those optimally leveraged firms, which face more convex
indirect bankruptcy cost functions, will choose higher hedge ratios. Moreover, we suggest a new approach to test this relationship
empirically.
相似文献
Lutz HahnensteinEmail: |
16.
We provide an empirical support for theories of lender specialization using the recently developed market for Debtor-in-Possession
(DIP) financing. The legal environment in which DIP financing operates represents a natural laboratory for testing determinants
of lending specialization (e.g. lender choice). We find that the choice of lender is not driven by credit risk, but by information
considerations and that this lending specialization has loan pricing effects. In short, banks (non-bank lenders) lend to more
(less) transparent firms and at lower (higher) loan spreads. Our results are consistent with the interpretation that banks
provide important and useful services.
相似文献
Gabriel G. Ramirez (Corresponding author)Email: |
17.
Zhilan Feng Chinmoy Ghosh C. F. Sirmans 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2007,35(3):225-251
We analyze director compensation for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and investigate the relations between director
compensation and other measures of the board independence and board monitoring. Using 136 REITs in 2001, we find that REITs
that pay higher equity-based compensation to their board members are associated with higher financial performance. Our data
indicate that board equity-based compensation is positively related to the existence of an independent nomination committee,
however, it has no significant relationship with board size, proportion of outside directors, CEO duality and CEO tenure and
ownership.
相似文献
Zhilan FengEmail: |
18.
Hsuan-Chu Lin 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2007,29(2):173-180
This paper identifies and corrects a typographical error in Black and Cox (J Finance 31:351–367, 1976). While the typographical error is seemingly trivial, the magnitude of the pricing error that it generates can be substantial.
相似文献
Hsuan-Chu LinEmail: |
19.
Durables like cars or houses are a substantial component in the balance sheets of households. These durables are exposed to
risk and can be insured in the market. We build a dynamic model in which agents have three possibilities to cope with the
risk exposure of the durable stock: (i) purchase of market insurance, (ii) buffer-stock saving of the riskless asset or (iii)
adjustment of the durable stock. We calibrate our model to the US economy and find a small role for market insurance.
相似文献
Winfried Koeniger (Corresponding author)Email: |
20.
Yildiray Yildirim 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,37(2):93-111
This paper provides a comprehensive default estimation of commercial real estate loans with a complete commercial mortgage
backed securities (CMBS) loan history database. Standard survival models assume that eventually every observation will experience
the event. However, often there is a high proportion of censored observation in the sample. A mixture model is proposed to
disentangle the probability of “long-term survivorship” and the timing of default occurrence. Loans within the same geographical
area and property type tend to exhibit correlation in default incidence. A multilevel model is proposed to capture this correlation
within and between clusters.
相似文献
Yildiray YildirimEmail: |