中国金融体制变迁的路径选择与政府行为

中国的金融体制经历了从计划金融到市场金融的历史变迁,而实质性的市场化金融体制改革是从中国的经济体制改革开始的.变迁方式表现出了强制性、渐进性、滞后性的路径依赖特征,本文从新制度经济学的视角对变迁进程的路径选择以及政府行为作了深入分析,揭示了今后变迁过程中的路径取向和政府应该担任的角色.     

中国金融体制变迁的路径选择与政府行为

中国的金融体制经历了从计划金融到市场金融的历史变迁,而实质性的市场化金融体制改革是从中国的经济体制改革开始的。变迁方式表现出了强制性、渐进性、滞后性的路径依赖特征,本文从新制度经济学的视角对变迁进程的路径选择以及政府行为作了深入分析,揭示了今后变迁过程中的路径取向和政府应该担任的角色。     

从制度变迁的路径依赖理论看中国金融制度变迁

经过二十余年的改革,中国金融制度变迁形成了独特的变迁路径,并将影响中国金融制度的进一步改革。研究这一变迁路径存在的问题及其对今后金融制度变迁的影响,对避免制度变迁的效率损失、保持制度变迁的健康发展具有重要的现实意义。制度变迁的路径依赖理论诺斯在《制度、制度变     

论我国金融制度变迁中政府主导型制度变迁

政府主导型制度变迁,是金融制度变迁的路径依赖之一。改革开放以来,我国重要的金融制度变迁无一不是在政府供给主导下进行的,而且,在相当长时期内将是我国中央银行制度变迁的主导方式。这一制度变迁方式是由我国政治经济金融的基本国情所决定的。     

路径依赖：农信社改革试点的障碍

1993年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者North在1968年曾在对制度及制度变迁的研究中提出了著名的路径依赖理论。他认为,路径依赖类似于物理学中的惯性,一旦进入某一路径(无论是好的还是坏的)就可能对这种路径产生依赖。沿着既定的路径,经济和政治制度的变化可能进入良性循环的轨道,迅速优化;也可能顺着原来错误的路径往下滑,甚至被“锁定”在某种无效状态。一旦进入了锁定状态,要脱身而出就十分困难。因此,在制度变迁与创新过程中,必须十分重视并不断解决“路径依赖”问题。     

农村社会保障制度变迁的演进逻辑与路径选择——从路径依赖到路径创造

新中国成立以来,农村在城乡二元分割格局的背景下形成了对土地保障模式的路径依赖,并逐步陷入"锁定状态"。经过改革开放以来近30年的渐进式改革,一系列正式的、具有现代保险性质的社会保障项目逐步在农村建立,中国农村社会保障制度开始突破传统的路径依赖。从制度变迁理论的分析视角,可以构建一个农村社会保障制度从路径依赖、突破到路径创造的解释框架,从而挖掘出中国农村社会保障制度变迁的深层次内在逻辑。并在此基础上,提出从理念创新、制度创新和管理创新三个维度践行城乡社会保障一体化的新路径。     

韩国金融制度变迁对我国金融制度改革的启示

韩国金融制度是典型的管制金融模式,其基本特征是以银行体系为主导的金融制度。本文通过分析韩国金融制度变迁的特征,结合当前我国金融改革所面临的形势,探讨其金融制度变迁的路径依赖对我国金融改革的借鉴意义。     

农地金融制度构建的目标、原则及路径选择

农地金融不仅是农村金融体系的一个重要组成部分,而且是农地制度的一个重要组成部分,对于农地流转、农业发展和农民增收具有重要意义。构建农地金融制度应遵循公平与效率兼顾、政府支持下市场化运作的原则。路径选择方面应注意制度安排与制度环境相契合,次级制度优先、诱导基础性制度变迁。     

论中国金融制度变迁的效用函数

本文运用西方制度经济学的“成本—效益”理论,分析了中国金融制度变迁的利益主体及其效用函数,揭示出中国金融制度变迁的轨迹是政府效用函数与政治银行家的个人效用函数的统一,并在此基础上导出中国金融制度变迁的特质。     

中国金融制度变迁的均衡分析

本文运用西方经济学的供需理论,对中国金融制度的需求、供给以及均衡特点进行了具体分析,并着重分析了政府及其代表“政治银行家”在中国金融制度变迁过程中的作用,揭示了中国金融制度变迁的轨迹。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.