A consumption-based model of the term structure of interest rates

This paper proposes a consumption-based model that accounts for many features of the nominal term structure of interest rates. The driving force behind the model is a time-varying price of risk generated by external habit. Nominal bonds depend on past consumption growth through habit and on expected inflation. When calibrated to data on consumption, inflation, and the aggregate market, the model produces realistic means and volatilities of bond yields and accounts for the expectations puzzle. The model also captures the high equity premium and excess stock market volatility.     

Accruals and the Conditional Equity Premium

Accruals correlate closely with the determinants of the conditional equity premium at both the firm and the aggregate levels. The common component of firm‐level accruals, which cannot be diversified away by aggregation, explains the positive relation between aggregate accruals and future stock market returns. The residual component, which accounts for most variation in firm‐level accruals, is responsible for the negative cross‐sectional relation between firm‐level accruals and future stock returns. Consistent with the risk‐based explanation, aggregate accruals, as a proxy for the conditional equity premium, forecast changes in aggregate economic activity. Moreover, we document a similar comovement of earnings with the conditional equity premium at both the firm and the aggregate levels, which helps explain the negative relation between changes in aggregate earnings and contemporaneous market returns.     

Leverage and the Cross‐Section of Equity Returns

Building on theoretical asset pricing literature, we examine the role of market risk and the size, book‐to‐market (BTM), and volatility anomalies in the cross‐section of unlevered equity returns. Compared with levered (stock) returns, unlevered market beta plays a more important role in explaining the cross‐section of unlevered equity returns, even after controlling for size and BTM. The size effect is weakened, while the value premium and the volatility puzzle virtually disappear for unlevered returns. We show that leverage induces heteroskedasticity in returns. Unlevering returns removes this pattern, which is otherwise difficult to address by controlling for leverage in regressions.     

Growth uncertainty,generalized disappointment aversion and production-based asset pricing

We study a production economy with regime switching in the conditional mean and volatility of productivity growth. The representative agent has generalized disappointment aversion (GDA) preferences. We show that volatility risk in productivity growth carries a positive and sizable risk premium in levered equity. Our model can endogenously generate long-run risks in the volatility of consumption growth observed in the data. We show that introducing leverage with a procyclical dividend process consistent with the data is critical for the GDA preferences to have a large impact on equity returns.     

The Determinants of Implied Volatility: A Test Using LIFFE Option Prices

This paper presents and tests a model of the volatility of individual companies' stocks, using implied volatilities derived from option prices. The data comes from traded options quoted on the London International Financial Futures Exchange. The model relates equity volatilities to corporate earnings announcements, interest-rate volatility and to four determining variables representing leverage, the degree of fixed-rate debt, asset duration and cash flow inflation indexation. The model predicts that equity volatility is positively related to duration and leverage and negatively related to the degree of inflation indexation and the proportion of fixed-rate debt in the capital structure. Empirical results suggest that duration, the proportion of fixed-rate debt, and leverage are significantly related to implied volatility. Regressions using all four determining variables explain approximately 30% of the cross-sectional variation in volatility. Time series tests confirm an expected drop in volatility shortly after the earnings announcement and in most cases a positive relationship between the volatility of the stock and the volatility of interest rates.     

AN IMPLICIT CLIENTELE TEST OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TAXATION AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE

This paper presents a test for the existence of high and low tax bracket debt clienteles. The test generates some evidence consistent with the implication of debt clientele theory that over time, firms' debt ratios should vary with the relative tax incentives for investors to hold debt. The results, however, do not support the existence of extreme financial leverage clienteles. Rather they are consistent with an incomplete equity market: low tax bracket investors hold the stock of highly levered firms and high tax bracket investors hold the stock of the low leverage firms.     

Detecting news in aggregate accounting earnings: implications for stock market valuation

How much news is there in aggregate accounting earnings? I provide evidence that earnings changes at the stock market level are correlated with new information about not only expected future cash flows but also discount rates. A comprehensive investigation of the link to discount rates reveals that aggregate earnings changes are tied to news about all components of the expected future stock market return, i.e., the real riskless rate, expected inflation, and the expected equity risk premium. Over the sample period studied, cash flow news and discount rate news in aggregate earnings changes covary positively and have offsetting impacts on stock market prices. As a result, stock market prices appear to be insensitive to aggregate earnings changes. The findings highlight the importance of separating cash flow news from discount rate news when evaluating the information content of accounting earnings at the stock market level. Overall, my study sheds new light on the informativeness and relevance of accounting earnings for valuation at the stock market level.     

Asset pricing with a financial sector

In this paper, we study the quantitative asset pricing implications of a financial intermediary that faces a leverage constraint. We use a recursive method to construct the global solution that accounts for occasionally binding constraints. Quantitatively, our model generates a high and countercyclical equity premium, a low and smooth risk-free interest rate, and a procyclical and persistent price–dividend ratio, despite an independently and identically distributed consumption growth process and a moderate risk aversion of 10. As a distinct prediction from our model, we find that when the intermediary is financially constrained, the interest rate spread between interbank and household loans spikes. This pattern is consistent with the empirical evidence that high TED spread coincides with low stock price and high stock market volatility.     

Stock Market Volatility and Economic Factors

This paper examines the ability of rational economic factors to explain stock market volatility. A simple model of the economy under uncertainty identifies four determinants of stock market volatility: uncertainty about the price level, the riskless rate of interest, the risk premium on equity and the ratio of expected profits to expected revenues. In initial tests these variables have significant explanatory power and account for over 50 per cent of the variation in market volatility from 1929 to 1989. When the regression coefficients are allowed to vary over time using cluster regression, the four factors explain over 90 per cent of the variation in market volatility. The results are useful in explaining the past behavior of stock market volatility and in forecasting future volatility.     

Components of Market Risk and Return

This article proposes a flexible but parsimonious specificationof the joint dynamics of market risk and return to produce forecastsof a time-varying market equity premium. Our parsimonious volatilitymodel allows components to decay at different rates, generatesmean-reverting forecasts, and allows variance targeting. Thesefeatures contribute to realistic equity premium forecasts forthe U.S. market over the 1840–2006 period. For example,the premium forecast was low in the mid-1990s but has recentlyincreased. Although the market's total conditional variancehas a positive effect on returns, the smooth long-run componentof volatility is more important for capturing the dynamics ofthe premium. This result is robust to univariate specificationsthat condition on either levels or logs of past realized volatility(RV), as well as to a new bivariate model of returns and RV.     

Debt/Equity Ratio and Expected Common Stock Returns: Empirical Evidence

The expected common stock returns are positively related to the ratio of debt (noncommon equity liabilities) to equity, controlling for the beta and firm size and including as well as excluding January, though the relation is much larger in January. This relationship is not sensitive to variations in the market proxy, estimation technique, etc. The evidence suggests that the “premium” associated with the debt/equity ratio is not likely to be just some kind of “risk premium”.     

Non‐operating earnings and firm risk*

We find that non‐operating earnings reduce total earnings volatility, stock price volatility, idiosyncratic risk, and crash risk. The risk‐reducing effects of non‐operating earnings are higher than those of operating earnings for risk measures based on stock market data. Non‐operating earnings serve to mitigate risks among firms with operating losses, high financial leverage, high growth uncertainty, and low‐ability managers.     

Forecast Dispersion and the Cross Section of Expected Returns

Recent work by Diether, Malloy, and Scherbina (2002) has established a negative relationship between stock returns and the dispersion of analysts' earnings forecasts. I offer a simple explanation for this phenomenon based on the interpretation of dispersion as a proxy for unpriced information risk arising when asset values are unobservable. The relationship then follows from a general options‐pricing result: For a levered firm, expected returns should always decrease with the level of idiosyncratic asset risk. This story is formalized with a straightforward model. Reasonable parameter values produce large effects, and the theory's main empirical prediction is supported in cross‐sectional tests.     

The second moment matters! Cross-sectional dispersion of firm valuations and expected returns

Behavioral theories predict that firm valuation dispersion in the cross-section (“dispersion”) measures aggregate overpricing caused by investor overconfidence and should be negatively related to expected aggregate returns. This paper develops and tests these hypotheses. Consistent with the model predictions, I find that measures of dispersion are positively related to aggregate valuations, trading volume, idiosyncratic volatility, past market returns, and current and future investor sentiment indexes. Dispersion is a strong negative predictor of subsequent short- and long-term market excess returns. Market beta is positively related to stock returns when the beginning-of-period dispersion is low and this relationship reverses when initial dispersion is high. A simple forecast model based on dispersion significantly outperforms a naive model based on historical equity premium in out-of-sample tests and the predictability is stronger in economic downturns.     

Conditional Equity Premium and Aggregate Corporate Investment

We document a strong negative relation between aggregate corporate investment and conditional equity premium estimated from direct stock market risk measures. Consistent with the investment-based asset pricing model, the comovement with conditional equity premium fully accounts for aggregate investment's market return predictive power. Similarly, conditional equity premium is a significant determinant of classic Tobin's q measure, although q has much weaker explanatory power for aggregate investment possibly because of its measurement errors. Moreover, the positive relation between aggregate investment and investor sentiment documented in previous studies reflects the fact that both variables correlate closely with conditional equity premium.     

How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?

Using a simple dynamic asset pricing model, this paper investigates the relationship between the precision of public information about economic growth and stock market returns. After fully characterizing expected returns and conditional volatility, I show that (i) higher precision of signals tends to increase the risk premium, (ii) when signals are imprecise the equity premium is bounded above independently of investors' risk aversion, (iii) return volatility is U-shaped with respect to investors' risk aversion, and (iv) the relationship between conditional expected returns and conditional variance is ambiguous.     

Market perceptions of discretionary accruals by debt renegotiating firms during economic downturn

This study addresses how a stock market prices earnings components around a sudden and severe economic downturn. In particular, the study examines the market valuation of discretionary accruals for debt renegotiating Malaysian firms during the Asian financial crisis. Our analysis shows that negative discretionary accruals for debt renegotiating firms are associated with higher market values of equity and are not related to the firms' future earnings. These findings are consistent with investors placing a positive value on the probability that negative accruals increase the likelihood that concessions can be extracted from lenders during renegotiation. In contrast, discretionary accruals for a control sample of non-debt renegotiating firms are not significantly associated with stock prices but are positively associated with future earnings.     

Highly Valued Equity and Discretionary Accruals

Abstract:  Overvalued equity provides a strong incentive for managers to report earnings that do not disappoint the market (  Jensen, 2005 ). We find that this can be extended to highly valued equity more generally. In the year following the classification as highly valued and compared to firms with less extreme valuations, highly valued firms have significantly higher discretionary accruals and exhibit a more pronounced positive association between discretionary accruals and proxies for the likelihood of failing to meet earnings targets. These findings are consistent with the use of discretionary accruals to manage earnings in support of extreme valuation. Because highly valued equity will likely result in CEOs with valuable stock and stock option portfolios, we test whether and show that the overvalued equity incentive is incremental to a CEO's equity portfolio incentive. One implication is that directors and audit committees should be especially on guard for possible earnings management when a firm has extremely high valuation multiples and when the CEO has a lot of equity at risk.     

Rare disaster risk and the expected equity risk premium

Consistent with the predictions of rare disaster models, we find that a proxy for the time‐varying probability of rare disasters helps to explain fluctuations in expectations of the equity risk premium. Our proxy for disaster risk is a recently developed measure of global political instability, and the expected market risk premium is from Value Line analysts' expected stock returns. Consistent with long‐run risk models, uncertainty about expected GDP growth and expected consumption growth is also significantly positively related to the expected market risk premium. We obtain similar results when we use the earnings–price ratio and the dividend–price ratio as proxies for the expected market risk premium.     

Capital Structure, Information Acquisition and Investment Decisions in an Industry Framework

This paper analyzes the relationship between a firm's capital structure and its information acquisition prior to capital budgeting decisions. It is found that low-growth industries can sustain a large number of levered firms. In these industries, leverage is negatively related to a firm's incentive to acquire information during the capital budgeting process. In contrast, high-growth industries only sustain a small number of levered firms. In these industries, levered firms acquire more information than all-equity financed firms. The model yields empirical predictions regarding the effects of leverage on the expected amount and the volatility of corporate investment. While leverage does not affect firm value, highly levered firms generate a more volatile cash flow than firms with low debt levels.