Financial Development and Income Inequality: Long-Run Relationship and Short-Run Heterogeneity

This article examines the dynamic relationship between financial development and income inequality using the PMG. We find that financial development will reduce inequality in the long run, while it can increase inequality in the short run. Using the estimates of country-specific short-run coefficients, we also find that adverse short-run effects of financial development are associated with the vulnerabilities of countries in terms of their greater susceptibility to crises and poor quality of governance. Good governance seems to be important for achieving inclusive growth though financial development.     

Long-run dynamics of official and black-market exchange rates in Latin America

This paper attempts to investigate the long-run dynamic relationship between official and black-market exchange rates for four Latin America markets namely, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. We follow (Moore, M. J., & Phylaktis, K. (2000). Black and official exchange rates in the Pacific Basin: Some tests of dynamic behaviour. Applied Financial Economics, 10, 361–369.) and we distinguish between long-run informational efficiency and short-run predictability in a sense that these notions are compatible with cointegration and error-correction mechanisms (ECM). Our findings indicate a constant black-market premium for each country, which is taken as strong support for long-run informational efficiency between the official and black markets for foreign currency. In addition, the evidence of short-run predictability is not considered as a violation of market efficiency, but it is the outcome of optimal arbitrage by rational economic agents.     

Long-run dynamics of official and black-market exchange rates in Latin America

This paper attempts to investigate the long-run dynamic relationship between official and black-market exchange rates for four Latin America markets namely, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. We follow (Moore, M. J., & Phylaktis, K. (2000). Black and official exchange rates in the Pacific Basin: Some tests of dynamic behaviour. Applied Financial Economics, 10, 361–369.) and we distinguish between long-run informational efficiency and short-run predictability in a sense that these notions are compatible with cointegration and error-correction mechanisms (ECM). Our findings indicate a constant black-market premium for each country, which is taken as strong support for long-run informational efficiency between the official and black markets for foreign currency. In addition, the evidence of short-run predictability is not considered as a violation of market efficiency, but it is the outcome of optimal arbitrage by rational economic agents.     

自然资源核算——从账户到资产负债表：演进与启示

通过梳理和分析自然资源核算的历史演进以及典型国家开展自然资源核算的实践经验,对自然资源核算账户、环境经济综合核算以及自然资源资产负债表的关系进行了辨析,指出作为生态文明建设中的一项重要制度创新,自然资源资产负债表与环境经济综合核算两种核算体系揭示和反映的重点不同,但两者都需要以自然资源核算账户为基础进行编制。自然资源资产负债表的构建有助于健全政府宏观会计体系,完善国家资产负债表的数据基础。     

The Resource Curse and Its Transmission Channels: An Empirical Investigation of Chinese Cities’ Panel Data

This article re-examines the resource curse hypothesis on the city level in China using data from 273 cities during the period 2001–2010. The system GMM dynamic panel estimator is applied to address the potential endogeneity problems. Our empirical analysis suggests that natural resource dependence has a small and insignificant impact on economic output when we control for the negative indirect impacts. If the indirect impacts of the transmission channels through which the resources hinder economic output are included, the total effect of natural resource dependence on economic output increases to 10 times the direct effect. Moreover, the capital investment channel is shown to be the most important of these transmission channels.     

Underpricing of Chinese A-share IPOs and short-run underperformance under the approval system from 2001 to 2005

This paper analyses underpricing and short-run underperformance of the Chinese A-share IPOs from Mar, 2001 to 2005 when the new approval system was adopted. We find that the average market adjusted first-day return is 93.49% in this period, a more reasonable level when compared with those in previous periods in China. The findings show that underpricing in this period is significantly affected by offering mechanisms and inequality of demand and supply of IPOs. The effect of shareholder's structure is tested in the model and state-owned share's weight is shown to increase the degree of underpricing. Meanwhile, this paper analyses IPOs' short-run underpricing on their 10th, 20th, 30th trading days. It is found that most IPOs' underpricing shrinks and the degree of shrinking degrees is different across the groups categorized by offering mechanisms. Further, the underperformance of IPOs which are underwritten by more prestigious underwriters shows a comparatively lower range and is less severe in the short-run.     

Saving-investment dynamics and capital mobility in the US and Japan

This paper points out that a high long-run correlation between saving and investment is better interpreted as reflecting the operation of a country's intertemporal budget constraint rather than as an indicator of capital mobility. Inferences about capital mobility can instead be made from the divergent short-run dynamic responses of saving and investment to shocks. Using post-war quarterly data for the US and Japan, the paper assesses the characteristics of saving and investment behavior under different regulatory environments. It finds mixed evidence of changes in the short-run dynamics of saving and investment that suggest increased capital mobility in the 1980s.     

Second-best tax policy and natural resource management in growing economies

This paper investigates the exploitation of natural resources in a growing economy within a second-best fiscal policy framework. Agents derive utility from two types of consumption goods—one which relies on a natural resource input and one which does not—as well as from leisure and from natural resource amenity values. We connect second best policy to essential components of utility by considering the elasticity of substitution among each of the four utility arguments. The results illustrate potentially important relationships between amenity values and leisure. When amenity values are complementary with leisure, for instance when natural resources are used for recreation, optimal taxes on goods produced with natural resources generally increase over time. On the other hand, optimal taxes on goods produced from natural resources generally decrease over time when leisure and amenity values are substitutes. Under some parameterizations, complex dynamics leading to non-monotonic time paths can emerge.     

The tragedy of the commons in a violent world

Earlier research has shown that the tragedy of the commons may be resolved by Folk theorems for dynamic games. In this article, we graft on a standard natural‐resource exploitation game the possibility to appropriate the resource through violent means. Because conflict emerges endogenously as resources get depleted, the threat supporting the cooperative outcome is no longer subgame perfect, and thus credible. The unique equilibrium is such that players exploit noncooperatively the resource when it is abundant, and they revert to conflict when it becomes scarce. The players' utility is shown to be lower even if conflict wastes no resources.     

Liquidity preference under uncertainty: A model of dynamic investment in illiquid opportunities

Whereas frictionless exchange markets provide a high degree of liquidity for financial assets, investments in real assets and productive capacity may be very costly to modify, and thus effectively irreversible in the short-run. This paper addresses the problem of an investor (individual or enterprise) who must allocate a limited resource to productive investments over time. Investment opportunities arrive in a random sequence and are irreversible in the short-run: thus investment decisions are made under uncertainty as to future opportunities (which may have to be foregone). The analysis demonstrates that a rational investor will demand a higher return on long-lasting opportunities than on those which are instantaneously reversible. The liquidity premium increases with the average duration of the non-liquid investments.     

Sticking to your plan: The role of present bias for credit card paydown

We use data from an online financial service to show that many consumers fail to stick to their self-set debt paydown plans. This behavior is best explained by present bias. Our empirical approach is informed by a parsimonious model showing that the sensitivity of spending to paycheck receipt reflects a present-biased agents short-run impatience, and that this sensitivity is reduced by available resources only for agents who are aware (sophisticated) of their future impatience. Classifying users accordingly, we find that (i) sophisticated users debt paydown decreases with short-run impatience, and that (ii) planned paydown is most predictive of actual paydown for sophisticated users.     

The investigation of the dynamic linkages between real estate market and stock market in Greece

ABSTRACT

We use quarterly data from Greece over the period 1997:1–2015:2 and investigate the dynamic linkages between the price of the real estate market and the price of the stock market focusing on two transmission mechanisms, namely the wealth and credit-price effects. The empirical analysis employs advanced methodological techniques and presents evidence supporting the existence of both the wealth effect and the credit effect in the long-run while in the short-run there is a one-way causal effect running from stock market towards house market. Results reveal asymmetric adjustment to equilibrium process and considerably stronger for positive deviations from the equilibrium.     

What is Community Based Auditing and how does it work?

Community Based Auditing (CBA) has arisen in response to the ongoing conflict over the management of Tasmania's natural resources and in particular publically owned forests and water resource. The origins, philosophy and central methodology of Community Based Auditing are described and discussed. The author discusses how melding the principles of Post-Normal Science with methods of action research and environmental auditing has led to an innovative form of community engagement where empowered citizens undertake disciplined inquiry into issues relating to natural resource planning and management. Of particular concern are the notions of certainty embedded in present frameworks underpinning government legislation, natural resource planning and management. It is believed that this has led to a pattern of decision-making that is inappropriate, unfair and ultimately counterproductive. Case examples are presented where citizens have applied the CBA methodology in dealing with contentious issues within the Tasmanian forestry industry. The author concludes that the CBA innovation has helped to improve the depth and quality of citizen involvement in natural resource management and at the same time provides the impetus for greater accountability on the part of those charged with managing Tasmania's natural resources. It is felt that the methodology may be able to be applied to other contexts where the need for greater inclusiveness in decision-making relating to natural resource management has been demonstrated. The consequences for the evolution of environmental activism are also thought to be significant as a new form of community-based activism is now possible.     

The impact of energy-exporting countries’ EPUs on China’s energy futures investors: Risk preference,investment position and investment horizon

This study brings some new insights into EPU risk management. By categorizing China’s energy futures (CEF) investors by risk preference, investment position and investment horizon, we identify how EPU in four energy-exporting countries affects CEF investors. The Russian EPU mainly produces influence on short-run investors and risk-seeking investors. The Australian EPU affects risk-seeking investors heavily, while the Brazilian EPU acts on risk-seeking investors with short positions. In terms of China’s coking coal futures, changes in Russian EPU generate the weakest impact on various types of investors, while the US EPU affects medium-run risk-averse and long-run investors. The Australian EPU’s impact on investor types covers a wide range, while the Brazilian EPU affects short-run risk-averse and long-run investors. Moreover, for medium-run CEF investors, energy-exporting countries’ EPU risk characteristics is most dynamic. Changes in the EPU risk impact type mainly occurred during the US-China trade war and the outbreak of COVID-19.     

Two-stage capital budgeting,capital charge rates,and resource constraints

We study two-stage, multi-division budgeting mechanisms that allocate scarce resources among divisions using capital charge rates. Each divisional manager observes private sequential project information and competes for scarce resources over two stages. The optimal capital charge rates in our two-stage setting can be quite different from those that arise in a single-stage setting. If the firm faces a resource constraint at only the second stage, a less severe constraint can imply more first-stage project initiation, which can lead to higher second-stage capital charge rates. If resources are constrained at both stages, a decrease in the severity of the constraint at just one stage decreases the capital charge rate at that stage but increases the capital charge rate at the other stage because each constraint affects the intensity of competition at both stages. This result holds regardless of whether the scarce resources are fungible or non-fungible across stages.     

Exploiting short-run predictability

This paper measures the utility gains from exploiting short-run predictability in the volatility of stock returns in a dynamic model in the the presence of transaction costs, short-selling constraints and estimation risk. We find that utility gains are quite significant, both ex ante and out-of-sample.     

Linkages between the ADR market and home country macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence in the context of the BRICs

This study investigates the long-run and short-run lead–lag linkages between American Depositary Receipt (ADR) prices and home country economic fundamentals in the context of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China). In order to obtain an indication of the segmentation or integration between the ADR market and its underlying stock market, the same investigation is also undertaken in relation to the latter. We find that in the long run, economic growth positively drives ADR returns in the cases of Brazil and China but negatively in the cases of Russia and India. In the short-run, economic growth and money supply lead ADR prices but ADR prices predict inflation and oil prices with regard to Brazil while in Russia, oil prices predict ADR returns but the ADR market leads monetary policies and real economic activity. As regards India, in the short run, oil prices and economic growth lead ADR prices but ADR prices predict money supply changes. Finally, with respect to China, the ADR index lead economic growth and inflation but economic variables do not predict ADR prices in the short-run. In the long run, with the exception of China, we find the same kind of linkages between these economic fundamentals and the underlying stock market although the linkages are somewhat stronger. The short run dynamics for ADRs with respect to economic fundamentals are, however, different for that of the respective home country stock market. This would imply that the ADR market and its underlying stock market, as far as the BRICs are concerned, are integrated in the long-run but not in the short-run.     

The impact of monetary policy shocks on stock prices: Evidence from Canada and the United States

Using structural VAR models with short-run restrictions appropriate for Canada and the United States, we empirically examine whether trade and financial market openness matter for the impact on and transmission to stock prices of monetary policy shocks. We find that, in Canada, the immediate response of stock prices to a domestic contractionary monetary policy shock is small and the dynamic response is brief, whereas in the United States, the immediate response of stock prices to a similar shock is relatively large and the dynamic response is relatively prolonged. We find that these differences are largely driven by differences in financial market openness and hence different dynamic responses of monetary policy shocks between the two countries that we model in this paper.     

Do private firm valuations contain incremental information content over routine analyst valuations?

In this study, we seek to investigate whether private expert valuations commissioned for specific transactions outside the exchange contain incremental information content over public analyst valuations published routinely by investment houses. First, we find that public valuations are based to a larger extent on financial statements and market quotes, whereas private valuations tend to be based on other, non-public information. Second, we show that investors’ response to both public and private valuations is cautious in the short-run as well as in the long-run. Third, we provide evidence that despite the fact that private valuations have the advantage of time, human resources, and better access to non-public information, they do not provide different results than those obtained from public valuations. We conclude that while private valuations may be captured as more accurate and reliable, their superiority over public valuations is questionable at best.     

Financial dollarization: Short-run determinants in transition economies

This paper examines the determinants of financial dollarization in transition economies from a short-run perspective. Using aggregate monthly data of deposit and loan dollarization we study the drivers of short-term fluctuations in dollarization and test their importance at different levels of dollarization. The results provide evidence that (a) the positive (negative) short-run effects of depreciation (monetary expansion) on deposit dollarization are exacerbated in high-dollarization countries; (b) short-run loan dollarization is mainly driven by banks matching of domestic loans and deposits, currency matching of assets and liabilities, international financial integration, and institutional quality; and (c) both types of short-run dollarization are affected by interest rate differentials and deviations from desired dollarization.