A hybrid bankruptcy prediction model with dynamic loadings on accounting-ratio-based and market-based information: A binary quantile regression approach

While using the binary quantile regression (BQR) model, we establish a hybrid bankruptcy prediction model with dynamic loadings for both the accounting-ratio-based and market-based information. Using the proposed model, we conduct an empirical study on a dataset comprising of default events during the period from 1996 to 2006. In this study, those firms experienced bankruptcy/liquidation events as defined by the Compustat database are classified as “defaulted” firms, whereas all other firms listed in the Fortune 500 with over a B-rating during the same time period are identified as “survived” firms. The empirical findings of this study are consistent with the following notions. The distance-to-default (DD) variable derived from the market-based model is statistically significant in explaining the observed default events, particularly of those firms with relatively poor credit quality (i.e., high credit risk). Conversely, the z-score obtained with the accounting-ratio-based approach is statistically significant in predicting bankruptcies of firms of relatively good credit quality (i.e., low credit risk). In-sample and out-of-sample bankruptcy prediction tests demonstrated the superior performance of utilizing dynamic loadings rather than constant loadings derived by the conventional logit model.     

Auditor choice and bank risk taking

We investigate the importance of auditor choice on bank risk-taking in a cross-country setting for 5498 banks from 116 emerging and developed countries. Using the Z-score as our main proxy for bank risk, we report evidence that hiring a Big Four auditing firm reduces bank-risk even after controlling for bank and country variables. The reported evidence is valid for banks outside the United States and is robust to concerns relating to endogeneity and alternative banking risk measures. The results are economically meaningful. All else constant, the Z-score of a bank audited by a Big Four firm is 10.4% higher than a similar bank with a non-BIG Four auditor. Moreover, consistent with the view that Big Four auditors serve a corporate governance mechanism in emerging markets, we find that Big Four auditors maintain the ability to curb bank risk in countries characterized by weak institutions. Finally, our results suggest that while audit quality is associated with bank safety, its impact is reduced in countries that require audit-oversight.     

Strategic Bankruptcies and Price Reactions to Bankruptcy Filings

This study investigates whether the stock market differentiates between firms that file bankruptcy petitions for strategic reasons and firms that file bankruptcy petitions for financial reasons. We perform both univariate and regression tests on a sample of 245 firms that filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy petitions between 1981 and 1996. After controlling for bankruptcy outcome, probability of bankruptcy, firm financial condition, and firm size, we find that, in the period around bankruptcy filing, firms that file bankruptcy petitions for financial reasons have significantly larger stock price declines than firms that file bankruptcy petitions for strategic reasons.     

CEO turnover and bankrupt firms’ emergence

This paper examines whether CEO turnover within a bankrupt firm predicts the firm's likelihood to reemerge from bankruptcy proceedings as a reorganized entity. Using 836 bankruptcy cases filed under Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code from 1989 through 2016, we show that firms that undergo CEO turnover are significantly more likely to emerge from Chapter 11 proceedings. We conduct further analyses to examine the potential mechanisms through which CEO turnover is linked to a firm's chance of emergence. Consistent with the perspective that CEO turnover constitutes an observable event that can signal creditor support, we find that CEO turnover in bankrupt firms is positively associated with debtor-in-possession financing. Additionally, there is a significant increase in managerial quality post-turnover. Further, we document that the predictive power of CEO turnover is stronger in bankruptcy cases with greater uncertainty, such as in free-fall bankruptcies, where there is less preexisting agreement between the firm and its creditors. Overall, our findings provide valuable insight into external investors and stakeholder groups, whose interests are significantly impacted by corporate bankruptcies.     

A Monitoring Role for Deviations from Absolute Priority in Bankruptcy Resolution

Firms that have successfully reorganized under Chapter 11 of the bankruptcy laws of the United States frequently award shares of common stock in the reorganized firm to pre‐bankruptcy shareholders, even though pre‐bankruptcy creditors' claims are not fully satisfied. Using a sample of large publicly traded firms, these deviations from absolute priority (DAPR) are found to be positively related to the severity of agency costs within a financially distressed firm. US bankruptcy laws may exacerbate these agency costs by granting exclusivity to management during the reorganization period. Firms in which outside shareholders are more concentrated have a lower occurrence of DAPR indicating that blockholders provide an effective monitoring mechanism for controlling managerial behavior during reorganization. On the other hand, firms without this monitoring mechanism have a higher probability of DAPR indicating that creditors attempt to control managerial behavior by providing them with some sort of financial compensation via their equity holding in the firm. Finally, the evidence indicates that DAPR can be used to mitigate the hold‐up problem resulting from voting rights granted to both junior and senior claimants of the firm by US bankruptcy laws.     

Reporting Discretion and the Choice of Fresh Start Values in Companies Emerging from Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

Using a sample of seventy-two firms that adopted fresh start reporting upon their emergence from Chapter 11 bankruptcy, I test whether management estimates of fresh start equity values are misstated and whether such misstatements are related to characteristics of individual firms' bankruptcy process. I predict that the reported fresh start value reflects a tension between managerial incentives to promote the acceptance of the plan of reorganization, and incentives to enhance future reported performance. I test whether the tendency to overstate the fresh start equity value is increasing in factors affecting the acceptance of the reorganization plan (i.e., bankruptcy claimants' relative bargaining power) and decreasing in factors affecting postbankruptcy reported performance (i.e., the probability of future losses). I find that, relative to the market value of equity immediately after emergence from Chapter 11, the fresh start equity value is, on average, understated by about 4%. The difference between the fresh start equity value and market value also exhibits significant cross-sectional variation (an average absolute error of 11%). Consistent with my first prediction, the misstatement is increasing in the relative bargaining power of junior claimants. In contrast to my second prediction, the misstatement is also increasing in the likelihood of future reported losses. This result suggests that firms that are more likely to experience postbankruptcy financial distress are more concerned with obtaining acceptance for their plan than with the effects of the fresh start equity value on postbankruptcy performance. Finally, I document that the misstatement in the fresh start equity value is negatively related to whether firms have undergone prepackaged bankruptcies, and positively related to replacement of a prebankruptcy CEO.     

International Evidence on Risk Taking by Banks Around the Global Financial Crisis

This study models the risks of commercial banks from the United States and developed, emerging, and frontier countries while controlling for bank- and country-specific variables within a panel framework. Bank risk is measured by both the traditional Z-score and a composite bank risk index proposed by the authors. The findings suggest that even though the riskiness of all banks from different country groups increased following the financial crisis, the magnitude of the change is not the same across groups. During the post-crisis period, banks in developed, emerging, and frontier countries experienced a smaller increase in their risk compared to their counterparts in the United States. This article provides support for the claim that banks in emerging and frontier countries have experienced the effects of the financial crisis to a lesser extent compared to those in the United States.     

保险公司破产的国际经验与借鉴

本文结合国外保险公司破产的具体案例,综合分析了保险公司破产的原因,这些原因既有保险公司内部的原因,也有外部的竞争和经济环境因素,而这些破产的历史教训是预防保险公司破产、及时甄别出有破产风险保险公司的宝贵经验。本文还介绍了英国、美国和日本的保险监管措施,以及RBC、IR IS、FAST、动态财务分析四种偿付能力监管系统。最后总结了国外保险公司破产对我国的启示。     

Forum-Shopping and Personal Bankruptcy

The dramatic increase in U.S. personal bankruptcy filings of the last fifteen years has focused attention on the wide disparities between different states' personal bankruptcy exemptions. These differences have been criticized both on the grounds of equity and also because they provide an incentive to move to a state with a higher exemption before declaring bankruptcy, that is to forum-shop. This paper focuses on the latter of these objections. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), we estimate a Nested Logit model of the household migration decision. Our econometric approach specifically avoids the problem of endogenously induced bankruptcy filings by examining the effect of filing propensity, rather than the actual event of filing, on the tendency to migrate to a higher exemption state. We conclude that while there is indeed evidence that considerations of bankruptcy laws do influence interstate migration, the actual effect is relatively modest. We estimate that, in any given year, roughly one percent of moves to higher-exemption states are motivated by considerations of differences in bankruptcy laws; by way of comparison, this is roughly comparable to the magnitude of recent estimates of welfare-induced migration. This suggests that the emphasis on differences in exemptions which has been a feature of recent attempts to reform the bankruptcy code is somewhat exaggerated.     

Empirical comparison of hazard models in predicting SMEs failure

This study aims to shed light on the debate concerning the choice between discrete-time and continuous-time hazard models in making bankruptcy or any binary prediction using interval censored data. Building on the theoretical suggestions from various disciplines, we empirically compare widely used discrete-time hazard models (with logit and clog-log links) and the continuous-time Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH) model in predicting bankruptcy and financial distress of the United States Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs). Consistent with the theoretical arguments, we report that discrete-time hazard models are superior to the continuous-time CPH model in making binary predictions using interval censored data. Moreover, hazard models developed using a failure definition based jointly on bankruptcy laws and firms’ financial health exhibit superior goodness of fit and classification measures, in comparison to models that employ a failure definition based either on bankruptcy laws or firms’ financial health alone.     

Predicting Bankruptcy Resolution

This study examines classification and prediction of the bankruptcy resolution event. Filing of bankruptcy is resolved through one of three alternative resolutions: acquisition, emergence or liquidation. Predicting the final bankruptcy resolution has not been examined in the prior accounting and finance literature. This post-bankruptcy classification and prediction of the final resolution is harder than discriminating between healthy and bankrupt firms because all filing firms are already in financial distress. Motivation for predicting the final resolution is developed and enhanced. A sample of 237 firms filing for bankruptcy is used. Classification and prediction accuracies are determined using a logit model. A ten-variable, three-group resolution logit model, which includes five accounting and five non-accounting variables is developed. The model correctly classifies 62 percent of the firms, significantly better than a random classification. We conclude that non-accounting data add relevant information to financial accounting data for predicting post bankruptcy resolution. Further, public policy implications for investors, researchers, bankruptcy judges, claimants and other stakeholders are discussed.     

Using neural networks to predict corporate failure

Predicting corporate failure or bankruptcy is one of the most important problems facing business and government. The recent Savings and Loan crisis is one example, where bankruptcies cost the United States billions of dollars and became a national political issue. This paper provides a ‘meta analysis’ of the use of neural networks to predict corporate failure. Fifteen papers are reviewed and compared in order to investigate ‘what works and what doesn’t work’. The studies are compared for their formulations including aspects such as the impact of using different percentages of bankrupt firms, the software they used, the input variables, the nature of the hidden layer used, the number of nodes in the hidden layer, the output variables, training and testing and statistical analysis of results. Then the findings are compared across a number of dimensions, including, similarity of comparative solutions, number of correct classifications, impact of hidden layers, and the impact of the percentage of bankrupt firms. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparing the performance of market-based and accounting-based bankruptcy prediction models

Recently developed corporate bankruptcy prediction models adopt a contingent claims valuation approach. However, despite their theoretical appeal, tests of their performance compared with traditional simple accounting-ratio-based approaches are limited in the literature. We find the two approaches capture different aspects of bankruptcy risk, and while there is little difference in their predictive ability in the UK, the z-score approach leads to significantly greater bank profitability in conditions of differential decision error costs and competitive pricing regime.     

Effects of Bankruptcy Exemptions and Foreclosure Laws on Mortgage Default and Foreclosure Rates

This study analyzes the effects of state bankruptcy asset exemptions and foreclosure laws on mortgage default and foreclosure rates across different segments of the mortgage market. We found that the effects of these legal provisions are larger for subprime than for prime mortgages and larger for adjustable rate mortgages than for fixed rate mortgages. These results demonstrate that the effect of variation in bankruptcy exemptions and foreclosure laws is most pronounced in the most risky segments of the mortgage market, which are those that have been most affected by the continuing housing slump in the United States.     

“大而不能倒”的法律困境

由于各国政府未能就大型金融机构跨境破产清算达成协议，包括美国在内的世界各国都未形成处理大型金融机构破产的有效方法。这就要求进一步提高系统重要性金融机构的资本金，以为其提供缓冲。而最好的方法是控制金融机构的规模。     

Gains from Mergers and Acquisitions Around the World: New Evidence

Using a global M&A data set, this paper provides evidence that the empirical observations relating public acquisitions to, at best, zero abnormal returns, and their stock-financed subset to negative abnormal returns for acquiring firms around the deal announcement are not unanimous across countries. Acquirers beyond the most competitive takeover markets (the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada) pay lower premia and realize gains, while share-for-share offers are at least non-value-destroying for their shareholders. In contrast, target shareholders within these markets gain significantly less, implying that the benefits generated are more evenly split between the involved parties.     

Effect of cash flow risk on corporate failures,and the moderating role of earnings management and abnormal compensation

In this study, we find that United States firms' average cash flow risk (CFR) shows a significantly increasing trend over the past four decades or so. This does not portend well considering the significance of cash flows in maintaining a firm's financial health and going concern status. The CFR also increases dramatically for firms approaching financial distress or bankruptcy, suggesting its important role in predicting a firm's failure. Empirically, we find that CFR has a strong positive effect on a firm's financial distress likelihood. We also find that the association between CFR and financial distress is negatively moderated in firms with high earnings management and abnormal compensation. The results suggest that managers in firms with high CFR are more likely to use heuristics in form of earnings management. Thus, supporting the upper echelons theory related to managers under performance pressure. Meanwhile, consistent with the notion in the agency theory that financial incentives serve as effective monitoring mechanisms, compensation packages can incentivize better risk management practices and decrease the likelihood of a firm's failure. Our findings are also robust to alternative definitions of a firm's failure: financial constraints, presumed debt covenant violation and legal bankruptcy filings.     

Innovate or die: Corporate innovation and bankruptcy forecasts

We investigate the relationship between a firm’s innovation performance and its probability of bankruptcy. Estimating the discrete hazard model with a comprehensive set of bankruptcies spanning the period of 1980–2009, we find several previously neglected innovation-based variables are important determinants of bankruptcy probability, especially for firms belonging to technology-intensive industries. R&D productivity demonstrates persistent significance across different prediction horizons while the predictive power of patent count becomes larger and more significant at longer prediction horizons. We also find that a firm’s organization capital intensity correlates positively with future bankruptcy.     

The Interaction of Solvency with Liquidity and its Association with Bankruptcy Emergence

Prior research has shown that accounting information available prior to a bankruptcy is associated with the likelihood of bankruptcy. We show that additionally, the accounting information available prior to bankruptcy is associated with whether or not a firm will emerge from bankruptcy. We predict that firms that exhibit low solvency risk and high liquidity risk are most likely to emerge from bankruptcy. Firms that exhibit high solvency risk and high liquidity risk are predicted to be least likely to emerge from bankruptcy. Cross–sectionally, our results support these predictions, but our findings differ across large and small firms.     

Convertible Securities and Bankruptcy Reforms: Addressing Too Big to Fail and Reducing the Fragility of the Financial System*

Eliminating too big to fail should be the first priority of any regulatory reform. But this is easier said than done. As the crisis has taught us, when the systemic risks are perceived to be large, regulators will be very reluctant to close down insolvent firms or impose losses on creditors. So how do we reduce these risks so that regulators can credibly commit to a policy of allowing financial companies to fail and not resort to rescues or bailouts? The author proposes two complementary approaches to this problem: The first is to design capital structures with corrective mechanisms that kick in when a financial firm displays signs of trouble, but still has positive economic capital. To this end, the author endorses the Squam Lake Report's proposal that encourages financial firms to issue convertible debt with an “automatic” provision for converting to equity. In contrast to the Squam Lake proposal, however, the author argues that the conversion to equity should not depend on regulators' decisions and should take place before individual banks and the financial system are in full crisis mode. The second approach is to design a resolution mechanism that will close failing financial firms when early intervention has not led to the firm's recovery. The author argues that the best model for this mechanism is bankruptcy, because of its resolution of claims according to predetermined rules rather than regulatory discretion. However, certain forms of early intervention can also help to lower the costs of permitting firms to fail. For example, the Squam Lake idea that financial institutions be required to develop living wills should make it easier to unwind these firms in an orderly fashion and provide regulators with insight into the degree of systemic risk that these firms impose. The author notes that the challenges associated with getting the executives of healthy banks to plan for their own bankruptcy may indicate that a better use of regulatory resources might be to view the living will as one of the tools of prompt corrective action for firms that become undercapitalized but are still solvent. Once a firm has been declared undercapitalized, regulators would have greater bargaining power to insist on a serious plan for bankruptcy.