Free Cash Flow,Issuance Costs,and Stock Prices

We develop a dynamic model of a firm facing agency costs of free cash flow and external financing costs, and derive an explicit solution for the firm's optimal balance sheet dynamics. Financial frictions affect issuance and dividend policies, the value of cash holdings, and the dynamics of stock prices. The model predicts that the marginal value of cash varies negatively with the stock price, and positively with the volatility of the stock price. This yields novel insights on the asymmetric volatility phenomenon, on risk management policies, and on how business cycles and agency costs affect the volatility of stock returns.     

Do Stock Prices of Property Casualty Insurers Fully Reflect Information about Earnings,Accruals, Cash Flows,and Development?

This paper examines whether the stock prices of property and casualty (P&C) insurers fully reflect information contained in earnings, cash flows and accruals, and one particular accrual—development of loss reserves. The reserve for policy losses is a major accrual for P&C firms, requires substantial judgment and is the subject of unique disclosures that reveal the ex post error in management estimates. We find that investors underestimate the persistence of cash flows and overestimate the persistence of accruals for P&C insurers, but our evidence suggests the market does not underestimate the persistence of the development accrual.     

The Information Content of Cash Flows and the Random Walk: Evidence from the Helsinki Stock Exchange

Using a sample from the Helsinki Stock Exchange, this paper examines whether observed market reactions to unexpected cash flows are sensitive to the random walk assumption of cash flow behaviour. We consider the random walk (with drift) model commonly used in related literature, and we consider cash flow expectations generated with individually estimated parsimonious univariate time series models and an index model. Market reactions to unexpected cash flows are indiscernible under the random walk assumption, while significant market reactions are found when expectations of cash flows are measured with models which better capture their time series properties. Prior studies that rely on the random walk assumption have probably been biased against finding a significant market reaction to cash flow information.     

公司操纵经营活动现金流量的三种手法

现金流量表以现金收付制为编制原则,通常认为经营活动现金流量(以下简称经营现金流)与会计盈余相比,不容易被操纵,是相对可靠的“硬”数字。然而,现金流量表并非净土,其“三分法”为经营现金流的确认提供了“会计选择”余地,为操纵经营现金流提供了空间。本文将操纵经营现金流的手法分为三种类型:“操纵准则”——利用现金流量表准则提供的判断空间和选择余地;“操纵业务”——利用理财工具影响现金流的时间;直接造假。这三种手法单独或综合使用的现象均较常见。一、操纵准则现金流量表采纳国际上较通行的“三分法”,将现金收支分为投资、筹…     

Dividend Surprises Inferred from Option and Stock Prices

This paper introduces a new method to measure the unexpected component of dividend announcements. While measures used previously were based on various arbitrary models of dividend expectations, our suggested method compares the reaction of stock and option prices to dividend announcements. Our measure is compared to commonly used model-based measures, to a Box-Jenkins time-series-based measure, and to a Value-Line Investor Survey-based measure of dividend surprises. The new measure is more highly correlated with the market's reaction to the announcements than are alternative measures of dividend surprises. The new measure is also shown to be insensitive to the extent to which the options used to identify unexpected dividend announcements are in- or out-of-the-money.     

Prediction of Operating Cash Flows: Further Evidence from Australia

This paper examines empirically the relative abilities of current operating cash flows (hereafter OCF) and earnings in predicting future operating cash flows in Australia. It extends prior Australian research on cash flow prediction ( Percy and Stokes 1992 ; Clinch, Sidhu and Sing 2002 ; Farshadfar, Ng and Brimble 2009 ) by examining future cash flow predictions for one‐, two‐ and three‐year‐ahead forecast horizons; incorporating additional contextual variables likely to affect the predictive association between current cash flows or earnings and future cash flows; and comparing cross‐sectional versus time series‐based prediction models to ascertain the relative superiority of one approach over the other. Regression results reveal that the cash flow‐based models are more accurate in predicting future operating cash flows than earnings‐based models. This result, however, is moderated by firm‐specific contextual factors like firm size, negative versus positive cash flow pattern, cash flow variability and firm operating cycle. Finally, a comparison between cross‐sectional and time series approaches reveals that the cross‐sectional model outperforms the time series model for both the operating cash flows and earnings models in most of the forecast years.     

Corporate Data and Future Cash Flows

Abstract:   This article examines the ability of current accounting data to explain future cash flows for UK firms, as disclosed under FRS1 (1991). Rather than examining price data — from which cash flow implications have to be inferred — we follow the more direct approach used in several recent US studies, in which actual future cash flow data are examined. Specifically, our methodology is a development of the OLS regression framework employed by Barth et al. (2001) . We provide a replication of their main OLS analysis, and then extend this to deal with fixed effects and time trends in the levels of cash flow data. Our study finds that the disaggregation of earnings into cash flows and accruals, generates superior explanatory power with regard to future cash flows.     

Idiosyncratic Cash Flows and Systematic Risk

We show that unpriced cash flow shocks contain information about future priced risk. A positive idiosyncratic shock decreases the sensitivity of firm value to priced risk factors and simultaneously increases firm size and idiosyncratic risk. A simple model can therefore explain book‐to‐market and size anomalies, as well as the negative relation between idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns. Empirically, we find that anomalies are more pronounced for firms with high idiosyncratic cash flow volatility. More generally, our results imply that any economic variable correlated with the history of idiosyncratic shocks can help to explain expected stock returns.     

Feedback Effects and Asset Prices

Feedback effects from asset prices to firm cash flows have been empirically documented. This finding raises a question for asset pricing: How are asset prices determined if price affects fundamental value, which in turn affects price? In this environment, by buying assets that others are buying, investors ensure high future cash flows for the firm and subsequent high returns for themselves. Hence, investors have an incentive to coordinate, which may generate self‐fulfilling beliefs and multiple equilibria. Using insights from global games, we pin down investors' beliefs, analyze equilibrium prices, and show that strong feedback leads to higher excess volatility.     

Do Stock Prices and Volatility Jump? Reconciling Evidence from Spot and Option Prices

This paper examines the empirical performance of jump diffusion models of stock price dynamics from joint options and stock markets data. The paper introduces a model with discontinuous correlated jumps in stock prices and stock price volatility, and with state-dependent arrival intensity. We discuss how to perform likelihood-based inference based upon joint options/returns data and present estimates of risk premiums for jump and volatility risks. The paper finds that while complex jump specifications add little explanatory power in fitting options data, these models fare better in fitting options and returns data simultaneously.     

Skewness and Stock Option Prices

Abstract

In the classical Black-Scholes model, the logarithm of the stock price has a normal distribution, which excludes skewness. In this paper we consider models that allow for skewness. We propose an option-pricing formula that contains a linear adjustment to the Black-Scholes formula. This approximation is derived in the shifted Poisson model, which is a complete market model in which the exact option price has some undesirable features. The same formula is obtained in some incomplete market models in which it is assumed that the price of an option is defined by the Esscher method. For a European call option, the adjustment for skewness can be positive or negative, depending on the strike price.     

预测盈余的价值相关性研究——来自深圳、上海股市的经验证据

研究表明，盈利预测不仅具有可靠性，而且还起到了引导投资投资行为的作用。     

Selective Publicity and Stock Prices

I examine how media coverage of good and bad corporate news affects stock prices, by studying the effect of investor relations (IR) firms. I find that IR firms “spin” their clients' news, generating more media coverage of positive press releases than negative press releases. This spin increases announcement returns. Around earnings announcements, however, IR firms cannot spin the news and their clients' returns are significantly lower. This pattern is consistent with positive media coverage increasing investor expectations, creating disappointment around hard information. Using reporter connections and geographical links, I argue that IR firms causally affect both media coverage and returns.     

Reaction of Bank Stock Prices to Loan-Loss Reserve Announcements

Significant own and contagious stock-price effects of bank LLR announcements exist despite the fact that these accounting adjustments have no concurrent cash-flow implications. Consistent with expected information effects, negative abnormal returns surrounding LLR announcements tend to be much more important in the case of regional as opposed to money-center banks. Accounting measures of bank soundness, and possibly regulatory pressure, appear to influence the market's assessment of LLR information for both announcing and nonannouncing banks.     

The Adjustment of Stock Prices to Information About Inflation

This paper analyzes the reaction of stock prices to the new information about inflation. Based on daily returns to the Standard and Poor's composite portfolio from 1953–78, it seems that the stock market reacts negatively to the announcement of unexpected inflation in the Consumer Price Index (C.P.I.), although the magnitude of the reaction is small. It is interesting to note that the stock market seems to react at the time of announcement of the C.P.I., approximately one month after the price data are collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.     

Number of Shareholders and Stock Prices: Evidence from Japan

Merton (1987) proposes that an increase in a firm's investor base increases the firm's value. In Japan, companies can reduce their stock's minimum trading unit—the number of shares in a round lot—which facilitates trading in the stock by small investors. We find that a reduction in the minimum trading unit greatly increases a firm's base of individual investors and its stock liquidity, and is associated with a significant increase in the stock price. Further, the stock price appreciation is positively related to an increase in the number of shareholders.     

Dividend Policies and Price-Volume Reactions to Cash Dividends on the Stock Market: Evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange

This study examines the effects of cash dividend payments on stock returns and trading volumes in the stock market. It also investigates whether there is any difference in the investment behavior of investors with respect to the dividend pay out ratio and size in the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE)from 1995 to 2003. Prices start to rise a few sessions before cash dividend payments, and on the ex-dividend day, they fall less than do dividend payments, finally decreasing in the sessions following the payment. Trading volume shows a considerable upward shift before the payment date and, interestingly, is stable after Thus, cash dividends influence prices and trading volumes in different ways before, at, and after payment, providing some profitable active trading strategy opportunities around the ex-dividend day. The findings support price-volume reaction discussions on the divident payment date and the significant effect of cash dividends on the stock market.     

The Diversification Discount: Cash Flows Versus Returns

Diversified firms have different values from comparable portfolios of single-segment firms. These value differences must be due to differences in either future cash flows or future returns. Expected security returns on diversified firms vary systematically with relative value. Discount firms have significantly higher subsequent returns than premium firms. Slightly more than half of the cross-sectional variation in excess values is due to variation in expected future cash flows, with the remainder due to variation in expected future returns and to covariation between cash flows and returns.