金融危机与对冲基金新趋势

本轮危机之前的对冲基金利用良好的表现遮盖了其高杠杆和其它一些结构性等问题。危机之中，正是对冲基金的去杠杆化使风险放大，引发了全球金融风暴。危机过后的基金，痛定思痛，正通过改变策略，走出困境。重点对对冲基金的最新变化趋势进行了分析。     

公共部门再杠杆化与私人部门去杠杆化的博弈——中国银行全球经济金融展望季报(2012年第三季度)

2012年第二季度,全球金融市场动荡加剧:希腊风雨飘摇,西班牙银行业陷入危机,多国主权评级被下调,欧债危机再趋恶化,投资者避险情绪增加;美国等主要经济体依然疲软,各国政策趋于宽松。展望第三季度,各国政府与央行或将继续推进财政、货币刺激政策,严防欧元崩溃与全球经济二次探底的重大风险。全球经济金融面临着公共部门再杠杆化与私人部门去杠杆化之间博弈的两难:希腊危局及欧洲银行业能否安然渡过难关,一定程度上取决于政府再杠杆化的力度;而美国房地产市场复苏的积极信号,则有赖于私人部门去杠杆化的进展。以"金砖国家"为代表的新兴经济体增长面临新的挑战。     

对冲通货膨胀风险：从未预期角度出发

本文通过对四种资产的月度价格以及美国月度通货膨胀率进行加工,得到资产的月度回报率和未预期到的通货膨胀率来验证哪种金融（实物）资产可以有效的对冲未预期通货膨胀风险。通过三种计算方法来寻找未预期到的通货膨胀,发现持有黄金和欧元作为对冲资产大约可以抵消30％和20％的通货膨胀风险。     

美国经济去杠杆化及其对我国的影响

此次金融危机引发的去杠杆化使得全球流动性过剩转变为了流动性紧缩,去杠杆化成为经济学界关注的主题。本文首先就美国当前的负债情况进行了历史比较和横向对比,说明了美国此次去杠杆的必要性;接着本文对比美国历次去杠杆化的过程和原因,指明了此次美国去杠杆化的特点;随后,本文比较了此次欧洲和美国的去杠杆化进程;最后,本文在基于以上分析的基础上,指出了美国此次持续去杠杆过程对我国可能产生的影响。     

美国对冲基金

一、对冲基金探源 对冲基金在美国有很长的历史。最早记录在案的对冲基金名为 AR Jones,发行于1949年,至今仍活跃在金融市场上。 当这种基金在美国首次出现的时候,因为被准予做空头交易,从而具备了套期保值,控制风险的能力,“对冲基金”即由此得名。     

对冲基金投资收益与风险理论文献综述

另类投资领域中的对冲基金研究对于中国正在兴起的私募基金具有重要的理论和现实意义.本文系统回顾了对冲基金投资收益与风险研究的文献内容,收益的定价方法、收益数据的偏差研究、风险的估测方法、风险测量的不足、对冲基金对金融市场的稳定性影响等,研究发现对冲基金的风险未被正确认识而收益表现被高估.这为全面认识对冲基金的收益风险特征提供了理论基础.     

消费回暖 美国经济增长加速

在经过两年的消费去杠杆化以后,目前美国家庭的资产负债水平回到正常,消费需求回稳。零售销售与商业库存数据连续月度上升,支持美国经济持续复苏,今年美国GDP增速有望达到3%左右。     

环球视野

欧洲：银行业主动去杠杆化;新加坡：成为亚洲最大外汇交易中心;美国：利率上涨致大行纷纷缩减房贷业务     

金融风暴后的对冲基金

自瑞银证券提出《2009年10个出乎意料的事》以来,投资者就一直在思考新兴市场能否重拾平价价值的问题。在过去,随着新兴市场的快速发展,这些市场的市盈率水平已经可以参考发达国家,不过这一状况自2008年10月后出现了逆转,从所谓的高估值变成了高折价。美国对冲基金研究机构(HFRI)的研究表明,全球投资人在2008年底呈现强烈的风险回避意愿,对冲基金从新兴市场中撤出了创记录的资本金。     

危机以来欧洲银行业的经营转型

自2007年开始,欧洲银行业在全球银行业的地位迅速下滑。为应对客观环境变化和自身危机的挑战,欧洲银行业启动了新一轮的经营发展转型;去杠杆化、去国际化和回归传统或核心业务。欧洲银行业经营转型的内因是危机前自我循环、过度扩张的发展模式不再具有可持续性;外因是宏观经济与金融监管环境发生了深刻转变,以及市场竞争格局的根本性转变。中国银行业应客观认识欧洲银行业回归本土的本质,抓住有利的市场环境,推进国际化进程;注重平衡扩张与收缩、专业化与综合化、杠杆化与去杠杆化的发展战略;适应客户需求与信息技术的变化,围绕服务实体经济进行金融创新。     

金融稳定视角下的对冲基金监管框架研究

进入新世纪以来,在低利率环境下对冲基金规模、市场影响和行业特征发生了一系列重要变化。从金融稳定视角看,对冲基金既可以基于不受直接监管的特点,向市场注入流动性,充当系统性风险"缓释器",也可以因高杠杆、隐蔽的操作直接或间接触发市场危机。为趋利避害,在构建对冲基金监管框架时,应遵循如下原则,一是避免直接限制对冲基金投资活动和风险管理细节,防止对其像共同基金或银行那样实施监管;二是在把握对冲基金市场影响传导机制的基础上控制监督关键变量,提高预警能力;三是在多元治理视角下,努力引导加强市场纪律。     

全球金融危机下投资银行发展模式研究

美国华尔街危机是包括银行、保险公司、对冲基金等机构在内的全面危机,是各类机构以高杠杆进行金融市场交易类业务并导致巨额亏损的后果.美国独立投行的消失也并不意味着投行实体的消失,以大型银行为主体的金融控股集团确实具有更强的抗风险能力.承销、并购、财务顾问等投行业务在中国仍然前景广阔,但金融市场交易领域的创新确需谨慎.在重塑...     

Commonality in hedge fund returns: Driving factors and implications

We measure the commonality in hedge fund returns, identify its main driving factor and analyze its implications for financial stability. We find that hedge funds’ commonality increased significantly from 2003 until 2006. We attribute this rise mainly to the increase in hedge funds’ exposure to emerging market equities, which we identify as a common factor in hedge fund returns over this period. Our results show that funds with a high commonality were affected disproportionately by illiquidity and exhibited negative returns during the subsequent financial crisis, thereby providing little diversification benefits to the financial system and to investors.     

The financial crisis and hedge fund returns

The financial crisis has focused the lens of politicians and regulators on hedge funds as a source of systemic and operational risk in asset markets. We examine the extent to which available data can provide useful information regarding the impact of hedge funds on the financial system. Using data from January 1994 through September 2008, we find dramatic changes in the exposures of hedge funds to risk factors, accompanied by a significant and widespread increase in correlation between hedge fund and factor returns. Lastly, the discontinuity at zero in the cross-sectional distribution of hedge fund returns persists throughout the sample.     

对冲基金及其监管问题研究

近年来,随着金融市场的加速创新和结构性调整,对冲基金的规模也迅速扩张,成为国际金融市场的重要参与者。与传统的资产管理、共同基金相比,对冲基金在投资策略、组织形式等方面具有自己的特点。对冲基金日益扩大的资产规模和自由灵活的投资策略增加了金融市场的流动性、提高了市场效率,但同时也给金融体系带来了新的不稳定因素。2006年以来,对冲基金对金融稳定的影响日益成为全球金融监管者关注的问题。有些国家主张通过间接监管的方式,有些则一直推动加强对对冲基金的直接监管。如何加强对对冲基金的监管,减少对冲基金对金融体系稳定性的负面影响,仍然是全球金融业面临的一项挑战。     

全球流动性过剩中的对冲基金:国际新动向及其对中国的启示

全球流动性过剩导致全球金融资产激增,推动对冲基金业规模迅速膨胀。与此同时,对冲基金业也出现了新的变化:投资者结构出现了机构化趋势,并受到监管当局日趋严厉的监管。这也使得对冲基金的收益和风险水平有了新的变化,呈现稳中趋降的态势。全球经济失衡和流动性过剩也推动对冲基金在全球寻找套利和投机机会,对全球的金融稳定产生一定的影响。中国需要审慎地推进资本项目开放和加强对冲基金的监管。     

The performance of emerging hedge funds and managers

This paper provides the first systematic analysis of performance patterns for emerging funds and managers in the hedge fund industry. Emerging funds and managers have particularly strong financial incentives to create investment performance and, because of their size, may be more nimble than established ones. Performance measurement, however, needs to control for the usual biases afflicting hedge fund databases. After adjusting for such biases and using a novel event time approach, we find strong evidence of outperformance during the first two to three years of existence. Each additional year of age decreases performance by 42 basis points, on average. Cross-sectionally, early performance by individual funds is quite persistent, with early strong performance lasting for up to five years.     

Arbitrage crashes and the speed of capital

The imminent failure of prime brokers during the 2008 financial crisis caused a sudden decrease in the leverage afforded hedge funds. This decrease resulted from the asymmetrical payoff to rehypothecation lenders—the ultimate financiers, through prime brokers, to hedge funds. Seemingly long-term debt capital became short-term capital creating a duration mismatch between left-hand side arbitrage opportunities and right-hand side liabilities. Consequently, arbitrageurs became unable to maintain similar prices of similar assets. Mispricing magnitudes, and the time required to correct them, reflect the role of arbitrageurs in maintaining accurate prices during normal times and offer an estimate of discounts at which assets transact during crises.     

Hedge Fund Regulation and Fund Governance: Evidence on the Effects of Mandatory Disclosure Rules

This paper uses three alternating changes in hedge fund regulation to study whether regulation reduces hedge funds’ misreporting, and, if so, why regulation is effective. Relative to public companies, hedge fund regulation is relatively light. Much of the regime is a “comply‐or‐explain” framework that allows funds to forego compliance with governance rules, providing that they disclose their lack of compliance. The results show that regulation reduces misreporting at hedge funds. Further analysis suggests that the disclosure requirements led funds to make changes in their internal governance, such as hiring or switching the fund's auditor, and that these changes induced funds to report their financial performance more accurately.     

Who benefits in a crisis? Evidence from hedge fund stock and option holdings

We use a unique data set of hedge fund long equity and equity option positions to investigate a significant lockup-related premium earned during the tech bubble (1999–2001) and financial crisis (2007–2009). Net fund flows are significantly greater among lockup funds during crisis and noncrisis periods. Managers of hedge funds with locked-up capital trade opportunistically against flow-motivated trades of non-lockup managers, consistent with a hypothesis of rent extraction in providing crisis era liquidity. The success of this opportunistic trading is concentrated during periods of high borrowing costs, in less liquid stock markets, and is enhanced by hedging in the equity option market.