金融危机爆发前后各相关国家主要经济指标规律性波动趋势探讨的文献综述

本文基于经济学文献的理论与经验分析,回答了主要经济指标在金融危机爆发前后是否存在规律性波动这一命题.为回答这一命题,我们从文献评述的视角对金融危机爆发前后资产价格的波动趋势、CDP的波动趋势和经常项目差额占GDP比例的波动趋势进行了考察.本文的研究结果表明,从上述三个角度来看,主要经济指标的波动趋势在金融危机爆发前后是存在规律性和相似性的.     

浅析金融危机传染机制及防范对策

1997年一场震惊世界的亚洲金融危机让人们近距离的体验到金融体系脆弱性的破坏力。而在十年后的今天,我们到底从那场危机中得到了什么?假如危机再次来临,我们又是否做好了准备呢?本文旨在通过对20世纪90年代以来爆发的三次世界性金融危机的历史回顾,来进一步揭示金融危机传染机制的原理,并透过其原理表层找出当今中国可能面临危机的引致因素。最后通过对原理以及我国实际国情的深入分析,总结出可行、有效的防范对策。     

论金融创新与金融危机——对次贷危机的分析

2007年末爆发的美国次贷危机已经过去一年,但是世界经济仍然在这场金融风暴的漩涡中挣扎.西方国家从科技革命开始已经经历了上百次大大小小的金融危机,但是最近30年金融危机的爆发频率和危机程度似乎越演越烈,这一场场危机的背后总是伴随着金融创新的身影.次贷危机的全面爆发让整个世界把目光都聚集在了以前百般赞美的金融创新上,金融创新与金融危机被描述成一对孪生兄弟,金融创新是导致这次绵延全球的瘟疫的源头吗?本文通过对次贷危机的深层次的剖析,对次货一系列链条中的金融创新进行了叙述,揭示了金融创新的本质和创新与这次金融危机的辩证关系,并沿着次贷爆发的逻辑链条揭示了问题的根源,最后对创新和危机做了理论思考.     

后金融危机时代东亚美元本位模式考察

2008年的美国金融危机的爆发使得实施美元本位模式的东亚地区因此受到冲击,美元的地位受到人们的质疑,所以,对后金融危机时代东亚美元本位模式的研究对于东亚区域货币合作的未来走向和操作具有重要的理论意义。本文首先从汇率的低频和高频波动这两个角度考察东亚美元本位模式在美金融危机前后的表现程度,以及后金融危机时代它的发展趋势,进而通过加入＂估值效应＂和资产不完全替代的转移效应模型说明了东亚美元本位模式继续存在的内在机制,以及美元本位下的双重矛盾,指出后金融危机时代东亚美元本位模式的持续使得未来美国金融危机还有持续爆发的可能,研究表明,放弃美元本位后的均衡状态完全取决于放弃东亚美元本位的时间,越早放弃美元本位,东亚国家付出的成本越小。而替代东亚美元本位模式主要依靠＂亚元模式＂和＂东亚人民币化＂。     

金融危机与公允价值计量

公允价值计量是金融危机爆发的原因之一,它在金融危机的扩大和加深过程中起到了推波助澜作用,但金融危机是资本主义制度内在矛盾的必然结果,公允价值计量并非罪魁祸首。本文主要探讨了2008年金融危机的爆发原因与公允价值计量的关系以及危机下对会计准则制定的反思等几个方面内容。     

大萧条与美国金融危机的比较

1929年的大萧条和2008年的金融危机是近百年来对美国乃至整个世界经济发展影响最为严重的两次危机.本文通过对两次金融危机的梳理,比较分析了二者在危机爆发过程、对经济的影响、所处的货币环境及相应的金融监管等方面的相似性和差异性,并提出制度性缺陷是两次危机爆发的主要根源这一观点.     

王君:中国经济发展的角色错位与角色归位

2008年金融危机以后国内曾经一度迷漫过一种乐观情绪,认为我们的经济制度、政治制度很多地方都是优于西方的发达国家的,正因如此,金融危机才没有在中国爆发,反而我们的一些大型国有银行还一举占据全球银行业排名的最前列。那么在中国目前的体制机制下,金融危机是否会爆发?有人将中国金融业与外国金融业的比较深层次地归纳为国家资本主义和自由资本主义的比较,二者的优劣现在无法定     

亚洲金融危机后中国的金融监管

1997年8月爆发的亚洲金融危机，虽然时移世易，但至今仍使人记忆犹新。这是因为这次金融危机是20世纪所发生的金融危机中最具特殊意义的一次。它改变了历史上大的金融危机多在西方发生的历史，显示了亚洲经济对西方用至整个世界经济的影响。从这次金融危机所应吸取的教训，我认为主要是三点。     

迪拜金融危机的成因分析及对中国的启示

迪拜金融危机是继全球性金融危机发生一年后，爆发的一次国别性金融危机。它虽然发生在中东地区，但由于近几年迪拜创造的“沙漠神话”而成为世界瞩目的地方，故此次金融危机的影响很大。本文在阐述了迪拜金融危机发生过程和不良影响的基础上，着重分析了此次金融危机的成因，并从中得出了对我国有益的启示。     

两次金融危机对香港对外贸易影响比较研究

金融危机成为现代经济发展的周期性特征之一。东南亚金融危机和本世纪爆发的国际金融危机虽然产生的原因、影响范围和程度不同,但是两者都对严重影响了香港的对外贸易。本文实证分析分析两次金融危机对香港对外贸易的影响,从对外贸易的主要指标和金融危机对香港对外贸易的影响机制进行了比较分析。结果表明,东南亚金融危机主要从汇率机制影响香港对外贸易,国际金融危机对香港对外贸易的影响主要是外部需求下降和周边国家发展疲软。     

从金融产品异化角度解析次贷危机的特征、发展和前景

人们之所以对次贷危机一再判断失误和低估其影响,主要在于采用了传统观念来评估这次前所未有的危机。次贷危机和以往历次金融危机相比最大的特征在于它是首次由产品异化引发的全面金融危机,所以从产品异化角度来审视这次危机,有助于揭示其中许多新的特征和发展脉络。相应地,传统的危机对策难以完全应对这次新型危机,只有同时对业务模式和产品重新调整,才能最终恢复市场信心和信任。在业务模式和产品经过调整的后危机时代,美国金融市场将会进入更加健康持续深化发展的新阶段。     

Using local Gaussian correlation in a nonlinear re-examination of financial contagion

This paper examines financial contagion, that is, whether the cross-market linkages in financial markets increase after a shock to a country. We use a new measure of local dependence (introduced by Tjøstheim and Hufthammer (2013)) to study the contagion effect. The central idea of the new approach is to approximate an arbitrary bivariate return distribution by a family of Gaussian bivariate distributions. At each point of the return distribution there is a Gaussian distribution that gives a good approximation at that point. The correlation of the approximating Gaussian distribution is taken as the local correlation in that neighbourhood. By examining the local Gaussian correlation before the shock (in a stable period) and after the shock (in the crisis period), we are able to test whether contagion has occurred by a bootstrap testing procedure. The use of local Gaussian correlation is compared to other methods of studying contagion. Further, the bootstrap test is examined in a Monte Carlo study, and shows good level and power properties. We illustrate our approach by re-examining the Mexican crisis of 1994, the Asian crisis of 1997–1998 and the financial crisis of 2007–2009. We find evidence of contagion based on our new procedure and are able to describe the nonlinear dependence structure of these crises.     

A Review of the Role of Financial Reporting in the Global Financial Crisis

The aim of this article is to review the recent literature that examines the performance of financial reporting in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In analysing the GFC a large number of commentators have attributed blame to financial reporting, in particular to the use of fair values (FVs) in reporting financial instruments in bank balance sheets. Based on a review of the emerging evidence, the main conclusions are that: (i) there is no empirical evidence that fair‐value accounting (FVA) during the GFC added to the severity of the crisis; (ii) further research is required to determine whether FVA in the years immediately preceding the crisis exacerbated the GFC because of the possibility that some of the FV gains reported may have been illusory; (iii) the existing literature has largely ignored the role of financial reports in the determination of a firm's cost of capital, although it is through this avenue that, in a crisis, financial reporting could play its most significant role; and (iv) the bulk of the commentary associated with financial reporting and the GFC has revolved around the valuation objective of financial reporting, even though financial reports also have a stewardship objective. Failure of financial reporting to satisfy this objective in the years preceding the GFC could have exacerbated the crisis. More consideration needs to be given to this latter issue to enable a complete assessment of the role of financial reporting in the GFC.     

Perceived vs actual financial crisis and bank credit standards: Is there any indication of self-fulfilling prophecy?

We link senior banks loan officers’ responses regarding their decisions for bank credit standards, from successive surveys from the European Bank Lending Survey to investigate two important issues. First, we examine the relationship between bank credit standards (CS) and perceived and actual financial crisis. Second, we investigate whether the notion of the self-fulfilling prophecy is applicable in the case of the 2008 financial crisis. In particular, the second main research question that we try to answer is whether the perceived crisis (as implied by the Google search query “financial crisis”) contributed to the acceleration of the outburst of the actual crisis. We find that both perceived and actual financial crisis affect senior bank loan officers’ credit standards, with the actual crisis having the greatest impact. These results are consistent both in the short and in the long run. Finally, by putting forward a binary choice model we find sufficient evidence to support the Self-Fulfilling Prophecy notion.     

Developing an alert system for local governments in financial crisis

This article presents a new model which will show whether a local authority is heading for financial trouble. The model is simple for national audit bodies to use and provides an early warning of financial tensions allowing corrective action to be taken before there is a crisis.     

金融监管体系演进与发展趋势问题研究——基于金融危机视角

从金融危机的视角看,金融监管体系演进与发展和金融危机密切相关。监管当局为了维护金融体系的安全与稳定,降低金融危机的影响与危害,避免金融危机的再次发生,总是不断寻找新的监管重点、变革监管范围和手段,来保持金融监管的有效性。本文从三代金融危机导致金融体系不稳定的因素存在差异出发,阐述金融监管体系变革的过程和发展趋势,并得出了几点启示。     

Perpetuating traditional influences: Voluntary disclosure in Malaysia following the economic crisis

Prior research on listed companies in Malaysia, Hong Kong and Singapore during and before the 1997 financial crisis has reported a significant association between ownership structure and the extent of voluntary disclosure in annual reports. We examine data for Malaysia after the 1997 financial crisis to assess whether the regulatory reaction to the crisis increased the awareness of disclosure as a tool of corporate governance and reduced the influence of insider domination on voluntary disclosure. We contrast director ownership and government ownership as determinants of voluntary disclosure in Malaysian company annual reports. Additionally, we include consideration of proprietary costs by testing whether industry competitiveness has an impact on voluntary disclosure.We find that director ownership is significantly associated with the extent of voluntary disclosure while government ownership, new governance initiatives and industry competitiveness are not significant in pointing companies towards greater transparency. We conclude that, despite the upheaval of the economic crisis, traditional influences of director ownership and family domination of the board outweigh the effect of government-backed accountability initiatives in determining the extent of voluntary disclosure.     

Exchange rate volatility response to macroeconomic news during the global financial crisis

We investigate the volatility reaction to macroeconomic news in major currency markets during the recent global financial crisis. We first present an alternative method for determining the changes in economic states by endogenously estimating crisis thresholds. Second, we assess which macroeconomic indicator gave the earliest warning signal for the upcoming contraction. Third, we investigate whether there is a systematic change in the volatility reaction of exchange rates to news during the crisis period. We find that the estimated logistic transition function based on the housing starts data exhibits the earliest warning signal compared to other indicators. Our results suggest that although volatility response to most news indicators is larger in expansion, currency market reaction to new home sales and Fed funds rate news is larger in the crisis period. We attribute this finding to the context-specific relevance of the housing and credit sectors in the evolution of the global financial crisis.     

Bank soundness and bank lending to new firms during the global financial crisis

This paper examines how the soundness of financial institutions affected bank lending to new firms during the 2008 financial crisis by using a unique firm–bank match‐level dataset of 1,467 unlisted small and medium‐sized enterprises incorporated in Japan. We employ a within‐firm estimator that can control for unobserved firms’ demand for credit through firm ? time fixed effects. The major findings of this paper are the following four points. First, sounder financial institutions may be generally less likely to provide financing to new firms. Second, our results suggest that sounder financial institutions were less likely to provide loans to new firms during the 2008 financial crisis. Third, financial institutions were less likely to provide financing to new firms during such crisis as compared to those with the same soundness during non‐crisis periods. Finally, such lending relationships to new firms that are established during the financial crisis by sounder financial institutions are more likely to be continued than such lending by less sound financial institutions.     

Internal Market Efficiency,Market Co-movement,and Cross-Market Efficiency: The Case of Hong Kong and Shanghai Stock Markets

We examine the effects of the 2008 financial crisis on the cross-market efficiency of the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock markets. Our results show a sharp decline in the cross-market efficiency during the financial crisis. We investigate whether this is due to lower internal market efficiency or higher market co-movement. The results show no evidence that the internal market efficiency dropped in Hong Kong or Shanghai during the crisis. In contrast, we document a strong increase in the market co-movement during the crisis. These results suggest that the decline in cross-market efficiency during the financial crisis is due to increased market co-movement and not a decline in internal market efficiency.