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1.
本文在期货估值研究中引入层次分析法的思想,利用模糊数学以及灰色数学作为估值评判的工具,全面考虑影响期货的各个因素,建立了多层次指标估值体系,并把评判结果定量化。以上海铜期货为例进行了实证分析,开辟了期货定价的一条新思路。  相似文献   

2.
本文从LGD的定义和性质出发,分析了LGD的研究难点,介绍了国际上LGD主流建模方法,并结合国情分析了我国LGD的影响因素,对开发LGD计量模型提出了建议。  相似文献   

3.
本文在分析公司治理机制的基础上,将影响公司治理的各个因素进行量化,通过构建上市公司估值模型,对公司治理影响估值进行实证分析.本文的结论是,公司治理对上市公司估值的影响很大;治理结构完善的公司,其估值水平相对较高,反之亦反之.  相似文献   

4.
估值定价问题是商业银行进行个人不良资产转让过程中必须面对的一个问题,本文结合个人不良资产实际处置经验、分析了现有不良资产估值工作中存在的各种难点和问题,研究表明,目前个人不良资产的估值方法中对经济周期、监管政策、季节性波动和地区差异等因素考虑不足,影响了估值的准确性,为了提高估值定价模型的准确性,本文提出了将经济增长趋势、季节性因素、政策性因素和市场化指数纳入个人不良资产估值模型中的具体建议。  相似文献   

5.
股权估值方法是建立在预期基础上的。由于关键估值变量的不同选择,产生了三种基本的股权估值模型:红利贴现模型、贴现现金流量模型和剩余收入模型。本文对三个基本模型进行了理论和实证的分析、综述,研究了基本模型之间的关系,比较了基本模型及其引申模型之间的优劣。  相似文献   

6.
根据郑州棉花期货市场日内交易高频数据,首先基于Thompson-Waller模型测度了棉花期货市场不同交割月份期货合约的流动性成本大小。实证研究表明:不同合约流动性成本大小受交易量和合约距交割期时间长短的影响,除此之外还有其他因素影响流动性成本,并且棉花期货市场符合萨缪尔森假说;而后以买卖价差代替流动性成本,根据LSB模型考察了流动性成本的日内变化特征,实证研究显示流动性成本中的信息不对称成分、指令处理成分、指令持续成分呈现明显的日内变化特征。  相似文献   

7.
抵押贷款违约损失率研究   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
新巴塞尔资本协定将违约概率(PD)和违约损失率(LGD)纳入监管资本衡量的基本框架,国际活跃银行内部风险管理指标已从不良贷款率转向PD和LGD。本文简要综述了国际上LGD理论与实证研究的成果,并对国内商业银行抵押贷款LGD进行了实证研究,得出了一些重要结论与管理建议。  相似文献   

8.
张楠 《西安金融》2007,(1):41-43
本文就全流通对于股票估值体系的影响进行分析,选择股票定价体系中基础理论-资本资产定价模型(CAPM)进行实证分析,选取具有代表性的股票,通过对比股价和大盘股指,建立计量经济学模型,对全流通前后模型的稳定性进行检验,从而研究全流通对于资本资产定价模型的影响。  相似文献   

9.
沉没成本与沉没成本谬误所有证券的估值、公司的估值都是以预期的将来收益为基础。与此相同,讨论投资时,对待成本也是只关心预期发生的成本,而不关心过去发生的成本。过去发生的成本有一专门术语,叫"沉没成本"。它是指业已发生或承诺、无法回收的成本支出,如因失误造成的不可收回的投资。根据理性原则,在进行项目预算或决策时,沉没成本是不应该考虑的。但人不是理性的,而只是有限理性,所以发生了"沉没成本谬误"。  相似文献   

10.
以河南省9家上市公司的具体情况为例,在MM模型与资本资产定价模型的基础上,对影响股权资本成本的各种因素进行理论研究;并通过建立回归模型,进行单因素与多因素分析,研究哪些因素对股权资本成本的影响较为稳定与深远。具体来说,主要包括三个方面的内容:一是分析研究河南省上市公司资本成本的现状;二是对各影响因素归类,并进行理论与实证分析;三是在研究结论的基础上,从降低企业股权资本成本的角度出发,提出如下相应对策:扩大公司规模、降低企业风险、提高股票流动性与经营能力等,以降低股票资本成本。  相似文献   

11.

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.  相似文献   

12.

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.  相似文献   

13.
The Japanese disclosure system of consolidated statements was introduced in 1977 and extensively revised in 1997. The role of the bureaucracy has been significant in these developments and seems to be part of Japan's closed culture. However, other explanations could also be applied. In particular, although Japanese firms opposed such disclosures on the basis of preparation costs, the Japanese government had to modernize the disclosure system, including consolidation, in order to develop the securities market regardless of an individual company's interests.  相似文献   

14.
After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.  相似文献   

15.
This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.  相似文献   

16.
正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note:1 Submissions must be original  相似文献   

17.
Short selling may accelerate stock price adjustment to negative news. However, the literature provides mixed evidence for this prediction. Using short-sale refinancing and a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model, this paper explores the effect of short selling on stock price adjustment. Our results show that (1) short-sale refinancing improves the speed of stock price adjustment to negative news. This result holds after we control for endogeneity. (2) The positive relationship between short-sale refinancing and stock price adjustment speed is significant in subsamples of stocks with higher earnings management or lower accuracy of analyst forecasts, indicating that firms with more opaque information are more likely to be targeted by short sellers. In subsamples of stocks with a higher ownership concentration or lower ownership by institutional investors, short selling is more likely to increase the speed of stock price adjustment, indicating that ownership structure may influence negative news mining. (3) As short-sale refinancing exacerbates the absorption of bad news by stock prices, it increases crash risk. This study enriches the research on the economic consequences of short selling and provides empirical evidence supporting regulations on short selling in China.  相似文献   

18.
China’s slowing economic growth and rapid urbanization have made local government debt financing a significant issue.This study uses a sample of China’s provinc...  相似文献   

19.
The trading station or factory maintained by the Dutch East India Company (VOC) was Japan's sole window on the Western world during most of the Tokugawa period (1600-1868). While many aspects of the factory's role in Dutch/Japanese cultural exchange have been researched little is known in the West of the accounting at the factory. This paper considers the possibility that double-entry bookkeeping employed by the Dutch may have been diffused to the Japanese. The available evidence is synthesized after considering the accounting system in the Dutch factory.  相似文献   

20.
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