The robustness of output measures in property-liability insurance efficiency studies

We empirically examine two methods for measuring output in property-liability insurer efficiency studies: the value-added approach and the “flow” (or financial intermediation) approach. The approaches are not mutually consistent. The value-added approach is closely related to traditional measures of firm performance, but the flow approach is not. In addition, efficient value-added approach firms are less likely to go insolvent, while firms characterized as efficient by the flow approach are generally more likely to fail. We also find that the theoretical concern regarding the value-added approach’s use of losses as a measure of output is not validated empirically.     

Foreign Ownership and Non‐Life Insurer Efficiency in the Japanese Marketplace

Traditional shareholding patterns in Japan have experienced significant change beginning in the early 1990s. Since that time, foreign institutional shareholding has increased significantly largely at the expense of domestic financial institution ownership. This article examines whether these changes in ownership patterns share a relationship with insurer performance in the non‐life insurance market. Using data from 1992 to 2005, we assess performance in terms of efficiency measures using data envelopment analyses (DEA) techniques. Our results show that higher levels of domestic financial institution ownership in Japan are associated with insurer inefficiency. Relative to that relationship, the foreign ownership–insurer efficiency relationship is found to be positive. Additionally, we find that the disparity between those relationships has become more acute since 2001 when the Japanese non‐life insurance market experienced significant consolidation.     

An Analysis of Contingent Commission Use by Property–Liability Insurers

The payment of contingent commissions in the property–liability insurance industry has long been commonplace, but recent events have made the practice highly controversial. Even prior to these events, wide variation existed among insurers in their use of contingent commissions. In this article, we examine the determinants of whether or not an insurer chooses to pay contingent commissions at all, as well as the determinants of the extent of their use for those insurers that pay them. We find a number of variables that have a significant relation to the use and extent of use of contingent commissions.     

The relationship between business strategy, management control systems and performance: Evidence from China

Over the past two decades, China has emerged as a global economic power, ranking behind only the USA, Japan and Germany. China's continuous global economic power has therefore prompted a surge in interest in understanding Chinese business practices. This paper reports on the results of a survey on the contingent relationship between business strategy, management control systems (MCS) and performance in Chinese Enterprises. The analysis is based on data gathered from 215 enterprises operating within the Xinjiang autonomous region of China. For those firms that were classified as pursuing differentiation strategy, the use of more non-financial based MCS has a positive effect on performance and this finding is consistent with the literature. We also found that for those firms classified as pursuing a low cost strategy, the use of more financial based MCS had a positive effective on performance as suggested in the literature. Our research has implications for understanding management accounting practices in Chinese enterprises.     

Loan loss provisions and return predictability: A dynamic perspective

This paper examines the impact of loan loss provisions (LLPs) on return predictability during 1994–2017. We find that on average, LLPs are negatively associated with one year ahead stock returns. This effect is particularly significant during the global financial crisis but much weaker during the Basel II and III periods. Consistent with these findings, a long–short trading strategy based on LLPs generates positive abnormal returns during the Basel II and III periods but negative abnormal returns during the financial crisis. Cross-sectional tests show that this effect is more pronounced among banks with greater information asymmetry. Decomposition of LLPs suggests that these findings are driven mainly by nondiscretionary LLPs. Overall, our results suggest that the relationship between LLPs and future stock returns is not linear but contingent on bank regulations and macroeconomic conditions.     

Moral Hazard in Reinsurance Markets

This article attempts to identify moral hazard in the traditional reinsurance market. We build a multiperiod principal–agent model of the reinsurance transaction from which we derive predictions on premium design, monitoring, loss control, and insurer risk retention. We then use panel data on U.S. property liability reinsurance to test the model. The empirical results are consistent with the model's predictions. In particular, we find evidence for the use of loss‐sensitive premiums when the insurer and reinsurer are not affiliates (i.e., not part of the same financial group), but little or no use of monitoring. In contrast, we find evidence for the extensive use of monitoring when the insurer and reinsurer are affiliates, where monitoring costs are lower.     

An Option-Pricing Approach to the Costs of Export Credit Insurance

This article investigates the relationship between a debtor country's external financial indicators and the costs associated with the insurance of export credits to that country. For this purpose a stylized model of export credit insurance (ECI) is developed, the central idea being that ECI is similar to a contingent claim such as a European put option. Thus, tools from option pricing theory were used to calculate the price of ECI, implying that not only the current financial position but also the volatility of the changes in that position determine such costs. The empirical results of a statistical analysis of the premium rates for ECI, applied by a private export credit insurer to seventy-seven developing countries during 1993, provide some support for these hypotheses. In particular, the reserves-over-imports ratio of a debtor country and the volatility of the rates of change of this ratio appear to contribute significantly to the premium rates that apply to that country. Thus, the article provides evidence that option pricing parameters do play role in practical insurance pricing, even if this pricing is not explicitly based on these parameters. Premium rates are set as if an underlying option market operated. Thus, the trade of countries with volatile external financial positions is saddled with higher costs than that of countries with more stable positions.     

Fair Valuation of Equity-Linked Policies under Insurer Default Risk

Abstract

We consider the problem of computing the fair value of equity-linked policies with an interestrate guarantee when the insurer is subject to credit risk. The framework is developed based on modern financial theory using the no-arbitrage principle. In this context, an equity-linked policy is considered as a vulnerable contingent claim that expires before maturity if the firm asset value reaches a prespecified default threshold depending on the firm’s liabilities. We derive a closedform formula in a continuous-time environment to compute the fair value of the contract. We also develop a discrete-time model that allows us to address fair evaluation when the policy embeds a surrender option.     

Market Reaction to Regulatory Action in the Insurance Industry: The Case of Contingent Commission

We examine the market's reaction to New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's civil suit against mega‐broker Marsh for bid rigging and inappropriate use of contingent commissions within a generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) framework. Effects on the stock returns of insurance brokers and insurers are tested. The findings are: (1) GARCH effects are significant in modeling broker/insurer returns; (2) the suit generated negative effects on the brokerage industry and individual brokers, suggesting that contagion dominates competitive effects; (3) spillover effects from the brokerage sector to insurance business are significant and mostly negative, demonstrating industry integration; and (4) information‐based contagion is supported, as opposed to the pure‐panic contagion.     

Performance measures and short‐termism: An exploratory study

We examine the relationship between performance measurement systems and short‐termism. Hypotheses are tested on a sample of senior managers drawn from a major telecommunications company to determine the extent to which the diagnostic and interactive uses of financial and non‐financial measures give rise to short‐termism. We find no evidence to suggest that the use of financial measures, either diagnostically or interactively, leads to short‐term behaviour. In contrast, we find a significant association between the use of non‐financial measures and short‐termism. Results suggest that the diagnostic use of non‐financial measures leads managers to make inter‐temporal trade‐off choices that prioritise the short term to the detriment of the long term, while we find interactive use is negatively associated with short‐termism. We find an imbalance in favour of the diagnostic use over the interactive use of non‐financial performance measures is associated with short‐termism. Overall, findings highlight the importance of considering the specific use of performance measures in determining the causes of short‐termism.     

“Analysis of Incremental Returns of Canadian Mutual Funds”, J. F. Carrière; C. F. Hill,April 2001

Abstract

The determination and allocation of economic capital is important for pricing, risk management, and related insurer financial decision making. This paper considers the allocation of economic capital to lines of business in insurance. We show how to derive closed-form results for the complete markets, arbitrage-free allocation of the insurer default option value, or insolvency exchange option, to lines of business for an insurer balance sheet. We assume that individual lines of business and the surplus ratio are joint log-normal although the method we adopt allows other assumptions. The allocation of the default option value is required for fair pricing in the multiline insurer. We discuss and illustrate other methods of capital allocation, including Myers-Read, and give numerical examples for the capital allocation of the default option value based on explicit payoffs by line.     

Bank stability and market discipline: The effect of contingent capital on risk taking and default probability

This paper investigates the effects of financial institutions issuing contingent capital, a debt security that automatically converts into equity if assets fall below a predetermined threshold. We decompose bank liabilities into sets of barrier options and present closed-form solutions for their prices. We quantify the reduction in default probability associated with issuing contingent capital instead of subordinated debt. We then show that appropriate choice of contingent capital terms (in particular the conversion ratio) can virtually eliminate stockholders' incentives to risk-shift, a motivation that is present when bank liabilities instead include either subordinated debt or additional equity. Importantly, risk-taking incentives continue to be weak during times of financial distress. Our findings imply that contingent capital may be an effective tool for stabilizing financial institutions.     

Auditor monitoring and verification in financial contracts: evidence from earnouts and SFAS 141(R)

We study how monitoring and verification of accounting-based performance benchmarks influences the design and efficiency of earnout contracts. Earnouts are commonly used to resolve agency conflicts arising in mergers and acquisitions, but these contracts create measurement and other agency problems when contingent payments are tied to future accounting-based performance. Exploiting changes in auditor monitoring of earnouts that arose as\ a consequence of SFAS 141(R), we find that acquisition contracts are more likely to incorporate accounting-based earnouts and that contingent payments tied to accounting-based performance benchmarks make up a larger portion of the consideration when acquiring firms have high-quality auditors. We also find that market reactions to announcements of earnout deals are more positive after SFAS 141(R) for acquisitions most susceptible to disputes over accounting-based performance metrics and these results are more pronounced for acquiring firms with high-quality auditors. By exploiting the features of this unique setting, we illuminate the role of monitoring and verification of accounting information in financial contracts.     

The performance of insolvency prediction and credit risk models in the UK: A comparative study

Theoretically-driven, market-based contingent claims models have recently been applied to the field of corporate insolvency prediction in an attempt to provide the art with a theoretical methodology that has been lacking in the past. Limited studies have been carried out in order directly to compare the performance of these models with that of their accounting number-based counterparts. We use receiver operating characteristic curves to assess the efficacy of thirteen selected models using, for the first time, post-IFRS UK data; and investigate the distributional properties of model efficacy. We find that the efficacy of the models is generally less than that reported in the prior literature; but that the contingent claims models outperform models which use accounting numbers. We also obtain the counter-intuitive finding that predictions based on a single variable can be as efficient as those which are based on models which are far more complicated – in terms of variable variety and mathematical construction. Finally, we develop and test a naïve version of the down-and-out-call barrier option model for insolvency prediction and find that, despite its simple formulation, it performs favourably compared alongside other contingent claims models.     

Hedging,financing, and investment decisions: Theory and empirical tests

In this paper we theoretically and empirically examine the interaction between hedging, financing, and investment decisions. A simple equilibrium model with costly financial distress suggests that as firms become more efficient at risky investments vis a vis low risk investments, they will borrow less, invest more in risky assets, and hedge more. The model also predicts a positive relationship between hedging and leverage – a result consistent with debt capacity arguments. We test the model empirically using a simultaneous equations framework to investigate the determinants of firm-level hedging, financing and investing decisions. The results strongly support the hypothesis that the hedging, financing and investment decisions are jointly determined. In addition, we find strong support for the central hypothesis that firms more efficient investing in risky technologies more aggressively hedge and use less debt financing in order to maximize their comparative advantage.     

Accounting quality,bank monitoring,and performance pricing loans

We provide new evidence on the determinants of performance pricing provisions in bank loan contracts. We find that firms that are easier to monitor, such as those with better accounting quality, lower information opacity, or a stronger relationship with the lender are more likely to have performance pricing loans. The use of performance pricing is less likely after financial restatement events. Furthermore, we find that the likelihood of using accounting-based (as opposed to credit-rating-based) pricing provisions increases as the firm’s accounting quality increases, and as the strength of the prior lending relation increases. Our results are robust to alternative measures of accounting quality, information opacity, and bank monitoring, and suggest that monitoring costs have a significant impact on the design of debt contracts.     

Interest Rate Risk and Equity Values of Life Insurance Companies: A GARCH–M Model

The importance of managerial decisions related to interest‐sensitive cash flows has received considerable attention in the insurance literature. Consistent with the interest‐sensitive nature of insurer assets and liabilities, empirical research has shown that insurer insolvency is significantly related to interest rate volatility. We investigate the interest rate sensitivity of monthly stock returns of life insurers based on a generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic in the mean (GARCH–M) model. We examine three different portfolios (equally weighted, risk‐based, and size‐based) with binary variables to explicitly account for varying interest rate strategies adopted by the Federal Reserve System. Results based on data for the period 1975 through 2000 indicate that life insurer equity values are sensitive to long‐term interest rates and that interest sensitivity varies across subperiods and across risk‐based and size‐based portfolios. The results complement insolvency research that links insurer financial performance to changes in interest rates.     

TOP MANAGEMENT TEAM CHARACTERISTICS AND LIFE INSURER PERFORMANCE: DO TOP MANAGERS MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

Abstract: This study examines the impact of top management team characteristics on life insurer performance. The authors argue that greater social cohesion among team members makes it less likely that the insurer will be able to adapt to the changes that have characterized the U.S. life insurance industry over the past decade and will, therefore, be detrimental to performance. Our findings support this assertion and suggest that life insurers driven by more diversified top management teams outperform life insurers with more homogenous top management teams.     

Banking system control,capital allocation,and economy performance

We observe less efficient capital allocation in countries whose banking systems are more thoroughly controlled by tycoons or families. The magnitude of this effect is similar to that of state control over banking. Unlike state control, tycoon or family control also correlates with slower economic and productivity growth, greater financial instability, and worse income inequality. These findings are consistent with theories that elite-capture of a country’s financial system can embed “crony capitalism.”     

An Investigation of the Short‐Run and Long‐Run Stock Returns Surrounding Insurer Rating Changes

We find that stock returns move in the direction of insurer rating changes in the 12‐month period prior to the announcement. There is an additional stock price response following the announcement of a downgrade, but no response to upgrade announcements. The reaction to a downgrade is more pronounced when it involves a smaller insurer, when it spans multiple levels, or when it is a threshold downgrade. Returns are significantly more negative during the 12 months leading up to a downgrade announcement during the financial crisis (2008 and 2009) compared to other sample years.