智能财务分析与诊断机器人的开发及实证检验——来自我国A股上市公司的经验证据

近年来,随着人工智能技术的发展,金融、财务、投资、审计与会计的智能化问题引起广泛关注。本文应用人工智能技术,依据财务分析的基本理论和方法,结合中国上市公司财务特征,率先尝试开发了"智能财务分析与诊断机器人",用于评价上市公司的综合财务绩效。该款智能机器人具有"速度快""智能化程度较高""专业能力较强""相对公正客观"和"实用性较强"五大特点。本文应用该款机器人设计了两个投资决策实验,个股和组合实验结果均表明该款智能机器人能有效地评价和区分上市公司的财务绩效类型。根据其输出的综合绩效,买入高绩效型股票或组合,或买入绩效成长型的股票或组合,具有显著的超额收益;买入高绩效型股票或组合,比买入绩效成长型的股票或组合,具有更高和更稳定的超额收益。可见,基于人工智能的财务分析与诊断机器人具有稳健和有效的择股能力。     

The global financial crisis and the capital structure of firms: Was the impact more severe among SMEs and non-listed firms?

Using a dataset covering about 276,998 firms across 75 countries over the period 2004–2011, this paper examines the short-run evolution of firms' capital structures following the start of the global financial crisis and its immediate aftermath, comparing the experience of already levered SMEs, large non-listed firms, and listed companies. We find that firm leverage and debt maturity declined both in advanced economies and in developing countries, even in those that did not experience a crisis. The deleveraging and maturity reduction were particularly significant for non-listed firms, including both SMEs as well as large non-listed companies. For SMEs, these effects were larger in countries with less efficient legal systems, weaker information sharing mechanisms, less developed financial sectors, and with more restrictions on bank entry. In contrast, there is weaker evidence of a significant decline in leverage and debt maturity among listed companies which are typically much larger than other firms and likely to benefit from the “spare tire” of easier access to capital market financing. Though our results are robust to many changes in sample and specification, we cannot rule out that survivorship bias and attrition could affect our estimates to some degree.     

独立董事制度有效性与控股股东关联交易——来自深交所制造业上市公司的经验数据

基于2002～2008年深交所制造业上市公司的证据,本文以控股股东与上市公司之间的关联交易作为研究对象,结合独立董事所占比例、专业性和薪酬等基本特征,考察了独立董事能否有效发挥其监督职能。研究发现:独立董事的专业性对控股股东与上市公司的关联交易有显著的抑制作用,独立董事薪酬与控股股东与上市公司关联交易的频率显著正相关,独立董事的比例对控股股东与上市公司关联交易没有显著影响。这些结论有助于我们从新的视角去改进我国上市公司独立董事制度以提高其监督制约控股股东的职能。     

中注协约谈部分证券资格事务所负责人及注册会计师 提示上市公司年报审计风险

为深入贯彻落实会计师事务所执业质量检查制度改革精神和《上市公司年报审计监管工作规程》要求,中注协在系统总结2010年年报审计监管约谈经验的基础上,通过创新约谈工作思路、健全约谈工作机制、加强约谈工作技术支持力量,进一步加大年报审计事前事中监管力度,有效抵制不正当低价竞争,更好地引导和帮助事务所防范审计风险。2012年,中注协先后约谈了9次(其中,当面约谈6次,书面约谈3次)、共20家证券资格事务所,就部分上市公司2011年年报审计风险进行提示,引起社会各界的高度关注和积极反响。为帮助广大读者深入了解中注协年报审计监管约谈机制和全面把握风险提示内涵,现接上期,继续将有关约谈的情况予以刊发。     

金融发展、预算软约束与企业投资

本文利用上市公司的数据,实证检验了在我国转型经济的特殊制度背景下,金融发展促进经济增长的微观传导机制是否存在并发挥作用以及影响这种作用发挥的制度性因素。研究结果发现金融发展水平的提高能够减轻企业的融资约束,降低企业投资对内部现金流的依赖性。但是,预算软约束的存在扭曲了国有企业面临的真实的融资约束,使得其投资对内部现金流的依赖程度要明显低于民营企业,并且这种软约束的存在还减弱了金融发展对国有企业所带来的积极作用,产生了“漏出”效应。本文的启示为:在我国转型经济的特殊制度背景下,如果要真正地减轻企业的融资约束,降低市场交易的成本,促进经济的发展,必须从提高金融发展水平和硬化预算约束同时入手。     

金融错配、非金融企业影子银行化与经济“脱实向虚”

当前,我国一些非金融企业通过直接或间接的方式从事影子银行业务。本文利用2004-2015年上市公司数据研究发现,金融错配程度的提高整体上会提高企业影子银行化规模,并且这种效应仅在金融深化程度较高、经济资源市场化配置程度偏低的地区显著;僵尸企业和盈利性较差的企业,分别受到“利润追逐”和“投资替代”机制的影响,金融错配对其影子银行化趋势的正向作用更为明显。机制检验发现,金融错配水平的上升通过提高融资约束程度从而降低企业实体投资水平,这种效应在资产专用性较强的企业中更为明显;金融错配主要通过融资约束程度和实体投资规模,而非资本回报率渠道作用于企业影子银行化行为。本文研究对于提高信贷资源配置效率,防范经济“脱实向虚”具有较强的政策意义。     

金融错配、非金融企业影子银行化与经济“脱实向虚”

当前,我国一些非金融企业通过直接或间接的方式从事影子银行业务。本文利用2004-2015年上市公司数据研究发现,金融错配程度的提高整体上会提高企业影子银行化规模,并且这种效应仅在金融深化程度较高、经济资源市场化配置程度偏低的地区显著;僵尸企业和盈利性较差的企业,分别受到“利润追逐”和“投资替代”机制的影响,金融错配对其影子银行化趋势的正向作用更为明显。机制检验发现,金融错配水平的上升通过提高融资约束程度从而降低企业实体投资水平,这种效应在资产专用性较强的企业中更为明显;金融错配主要通过融资约束程度和实体投资规模,而非资本回报率渠道作用于企业影子银行化行为。本文研究对于提高信贷资源配置效率,防范经济“脱实向虚”具有较强的政策意义。     

Ties that bind in business ethics: Social contracts and why they matter

How should bankers respond to challenges about whether to separate stock analysis from the other financial functions of financial services companies, or whether to maintain relationships with socially discredited customers? We wrote a book recently, Ties That Bind (Donaldson and Dunfee, 1999), out of our conviction that answering many of these questions requires a new approach to business ethics, one that exposes the implicit understandings or “contracts” that bind industries, companies, and economic systems into communities. In this article we unpack the fundamental elements of our approach called Integrative Social Contracts Theory (ISCT) and demonstrate how the theory can be applied to a particular question currently asked in the financial services industry, namely, “How should accounting firms and banking institutions deal with the increasing criticism alleging that new forms of conflict of interest impair the objectivity of auditors and security analysts.”     

“一带一路”相关上市公司投资效率的静态和动态分析——基于超效率CCR模型和Malmquist指数模型

“一带一路”倡议的提出给相关上市公司带来了重大机遇。以“一带一路”相关概念的55家上市公司2011-2016年的面板数据为研究对象,通过科学选取“投入—产出”指标体系,分别应用超效率CCR模型和DEA-Malmquist指数模型对相关上市公司投资效率的相对效率水平和全要素生产率进行分析和评价。“一带一路”倡议的提出对相关上市公司的经营效率在不同阶段对不同类型公司的影响存在差异性,由此提出提升上市公司投资效率的相关建议。     

上市公司使用金融衍生品避险动机的实证研究——来自金融保险业的经验证据

以我国2006—2008年金融、保险板块上市公司为研究样本，对我国上市公司使用金融衍生品的避险动机，运用Logstic归进行了研究。结果发现，只有公司规模与金融衍生品需求正相关。表明了我国金融衍生产品市场还处于发展初期，使用金融衍生品的公司参与避险的数量不多，资产规模小的金融机构风险管理经验尤为缺乏。     

“一带一路”背景下企业金融化动机研究——基于“中欧班列”开通的准自然实验

基于A股制造业上市企业数据,本文采用多期DID模型研究了“一带一路”背景下中欧班列开通对企业金融化动机的影响。研究发现,中欧班列开通显著加剧了以制造业为代表的实体企业投机性金融化动机。影响机制分析发现,开通中欧班列后,企业融资约束得到缓解,为金融投机提供了资金条件,且班列运行中遇到的现实困境是产生该动机的重要推手。异质性分析表明,班列开通对企业金融化的促进作用在非运输廊道、外围区域、非内陆自贸区及东部地区中更为明显,对非国企、大股东治理效应较弱、股权制衡度较低及高管有金融工作经历的企业边际影响更强。本文结论可为深入推进中欧班列可持续发展、有针对性地监管企业投资行为、合理引导企业“脱虚向实”等政策制定提供参考。     

EQT: Private Equity with a Purpose

The primary factors driving the remarkable growth of private equity have been the industry's attractive and stable returns in combination with its active ownership model. Nevertheless, critics have been questioning whether the PE industry can maintain its historic returns, and challenging its fee and incentive structures as well as its notable lack of transparency and diversity. And the alleged systemic effects of the industry on social problems like income inequality and climate change have become large enough to create a perceived threat to PE's long‐term “license to operate.” In this article, the authors discuss the commitment of EQT, the publicly listed and Stockholm‐headquartered private markets firm (and eighth largest PE fundraiser in the world), to the “future‐proofing” of both its portfolio companies and the company itself. The company envisions itself as undertaking a “journey” toward sustainability and positive impact and, in so doing, furnishing a model that other PE firms might find useful in helping “future‐proof” the entire industry. As part of that commitment, EQT recently published a “Statement of Purpose” signed by its the board of directors that focuses a societal impact lens on its entire portfolio of companies and assets, reinforces its public commitments to diversity and other “clean and conscious” practices, and aims to leverage digital technologies to enhance financial returns and real‐world outcomes. Transparency and a mindset focused on achieving positive impact are the keys to PE's earning high and stable returns and to securing its long‐term license to operate.     

The Evolution of Integrating ESG Analysis into Wealth Management Decisions

Retail investors rely heavily on the advice of their financial advisors. But relatively few of those advisors have begun to incorporate investment strategies based on environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors for their client's portfolios. The author attributes this lack of interest to the disappointing returns of the “first generation” of ESG retail investment products, which approached the topic through a “socially responsible investing” (SRI) lens with mandates to exclude companies and industries viewed as having negative impact on society. These early “negative screening” directives had the effect of reducing the size of the manager's investable universe, which effectively ensured that SRI portfolio would underperform the overall market. The author, who is himself a practicing financial advisor, proposes that an innovative evolutionary process is underway in which investment managers are shifting away from a penchant for “negative screening” to a more inclusive approach he refers to as “best‐in‐class ESG Factor Integration.” And he identifies three main catalysts for this evolution: (1) greater disclosure of ESG data by public companies; (2) the growing accuracy and accessibility of ESG research, from commercial as well as academic sources; and (3) the inclusion of ESG factors with the traditional value drivers emphasized by the fundamental and quantitative methods used by portfolio managers. Although such integration is yet in its early stages, the author is optimistic that this growing trend will become an important part of an overall sustainable investing movement. No longer confined to large institutional investors, ESG factor integration is now available through a growing number of products and investment platforms.     

行业专长与审计质量——基于投资者和财务报告视角的经验研究

本文从投资者和财务报告视角实证检验了行业专长和审计质量之间的关系。我们利用我国2001～2006年约6000家上市公司样本数据,构造了盈余反应系数模型和操控性应计模型,主要采用多元回归方法进行了统计分析。结果显示:在控制了相关变量的影响后,行业专长事务所审计客户的财务报告质量高于非行业专长事务所审计客户的财务报告质量。这表明行业专长促进了审计质量的提高。     

系族集团、集团内部结构与债券融资成本

本文以2007~2016年553家上市公司发行的997只公司债券为研究对象,探讨系族集团及其内部结构特征对企业债券融资成本的影响。文章发现:相较于独立的上市公司,集团上市公司的债券融资成本更低,且这一关系随着外部市场化水平的提高而减弱;进一步地,集团内部结构特征对企业债券融资成本具有重要影响:当集团最终控制人的相对持股比例越高、发债公司在集团金字塔结构中的层级越高、集团中上市公司数量越多以及集团涉足金融行业时,集团成员上市公司的债券融资成本更低。本文基于系族集团的视角考察企业债券的融资成本,既丰富了企业集团的相关文献,又对监管层维护债券市场稳定和深化金融体制改革具有一定的参考意义。     

Using “Statement of Intermediate Balances” As Tool for International Financial Statement Analysis in Airline Industry

Since September 11, 2001 and during the ensuing economic slowdown, a number of airline companies have experienced significant financial difficulties, including bankruptcies and near bankruptcies. In an economic setting where many airlines are struggling to achieve or maintain profitability, it is important for accountants, auditors, and financial analysts to be able to analyze the relative performance of such companies. In this industry, income statements are normally prepared “by nature” rather than “by function.” This differs from the usual presentation found in the income statements of many companies around the world, in particular most American companies. This paper demonstrates how to perform a comparative financial statement analysis when an income statement is prepared “by nature,” through application of a tool called the “Statement of Intermediate Balances.” This tool is illustrated using three companies chosen from different continents: Southwest Airlines, a low cost U.S. air carrier, Air France, the leader in Europe, and China Eastern Airlines, one of the biggest Chinese air carriers.     

上市公司数量与非上市公司创新

本文研究了上市公司数量增加对非上市公司创新的影响。研究发现,上市公司数量增加能够促进相关非上市公司创新。机制分析发现,上市公司数量对非上市公司创新的促进作用在融资约束程度相对严重的非上市公司中更明显,上市公司创新活动、分析师关注和高质量审计能够强化上述促进作用,表明上市公司能通过缓解融资约束,增加知识传播和信息披露,进而促进非上市公司创新。进一步研究发现,更多的地区劳动力供给、较高的地区市场化程度和金融市场化程度也能够强化上市公司数量增加对非上市公司创新的促进作用。本文深化了股票市场发展溢出效应方面的研究。     

REIT Institutional Ownership Dynamics and the Financial Crisis

Collectively, institutional investors hold large ownership stakes in REITs. The traditional view is that institutions are both long-term and passive investors. The financial crisis beginning in 2007 provides an opportunity to analyze the investment choices of institutional investors before, during, and after the crisis. Our results indicate that institutional ownership increased prior to the financial crisis, declined significantly during the period of market stress, but rebounded after. These results hold for four institutional investor subtypes: mutual funds/investment advisors, bank trusts, insurance companies, and other institutions, with mutual funds/investment advisors and bank trusts most clearly exhibiting this pattern. We also find evidence that institutions actively manage their REIT portfolios, displaying a “flight to quality” after the market downturn by reducing beta and individual risk exposure, and by increasing ownership in larger REITs.     

一损俱损:违规事件在企业集团内的传染效应研究

本文以企业集团为对象,研究违规事件的传染效应。利用2003-2015年我国上市公司违规样本,本文发现:(1)当公司发生违规行为而被证监会等监管机构进行处罚公告后,违规公司股价显著下跌的同时,同一集团内其他公司的股价也显著下跌,即违规事件在集团内存在传染效应,而这一传染效应主要存在于与信息披露相关的财务违规事件中;(2)进一步的路径检验发现“被传染公司”较低的盈余质量和集团内财务公司的存在能够解释传染效应的发生;(3)分组检验结果表明:集团内的传染效应在地区市场化程度较低、分析师跟踪人数较少、股权集中度较高的公司和国有企业中更为明显。借助违规事件的传染效应研究视角,本文的研究结果有助于进一步认识新兴市场中的企业集团。     

股票流动性与中国企业创新策略:流水不腐还是洪水猛兽？

中国情境下股票流动性对企业创新的影响是激励机制还是压力机制占主导地位？本文基于上市公司分类专利的申请、授权、终止数据研究发现:一方面,股票流动性使企业发明专利申请显著增加,但能通过实质审查的授权增长极少,说明申请质量明显下滑;另一方面,股票流动性使创新含量较低的实用新型与外观设计授权显著增加,且这些专利拖累了企业盈利表现,法律效力提前终止的数量也明显更多,揭示企业实际上是以“策略性创新”来应对资本市场压力,加剧了“专利泡沫”问题。分样本检验发现,“重数量轻质量”的创新策略集中体现于民营、传统行业及长期机构投资者持股较少的企业。稳健性检验替换关键指标构造和模型估计方法、构造工具变量克服潜在内生性问题,前述结论仍然成立。本文启示,金融制度设计应防范资本市场压力对企业创新的“意外伤害”,更好地实现“以金融助实体、以改革促发展”的目标。