Are inflation expectations rational?

Several recent papers report evidence of an apparent statistical bias in inflation expectations and interpret these findings as overturning the rational expectations hypothesis. In this paper, we investigate the validity of such an interpretation. We present a computational dynamic general equilibrium model capable of generating aggregate behavior similar to the data along several dimensions. By construction, model agents form “rational” expectations. We run a standard regression on equilibrium realizations of inflation and inflation expectations over sample periods corresponding to those tests performed on actual data and find evidence of an apparent bias in inflation expectations. Our experiments suggest that this incorrect inference is largely the product of a small sample problem, exacerbated by short-run learning dynamics in response to infrequent shifts in monetary policy regimes.     

Unexpected inflation and bank stock returns: The case of France 1977–1991

This paper evaluates the impact of unexpected inflation on the stock returns of a sample of French banks. It offers an empirical test of theories that have predicted an impact of inflation on the stock returns of banks. The paper complements a large literature that has focused exclusively on the impact of unexpected interest rates. The analysis provides empirical support to the hypothesis that, in periods of volatile inflation, there exists an inflation risk factor which is independent of the well-documented interest rate factor.     

Are equities good inflation hedges? A frequency domain perspective

By using industry level data, we examine the relation between equity returns and inflation in a frequency dependent framework. Our analysis shows that a positive relation in fact exists between equity returns and high frequency inflation shocks for commodity and technology related industries. Since higher frequency shocks are independent from trend and are transitory in nature, our findings imply a positive relation between stock returns and the unexpected component of inflation. Furthermore, we show that the results are robust to firm-level data by using a sample from the oil industry. Hence, our study provides a new look at the impact of inflation on equities by showing the sensitivity of conclusions in prior work to frequency dependence in data.     

Is gold a hedge against inflation? A wavelet time-scale perspective

Among the many presumed characteristics of gold, the ability to act as an enduring store of value is frequently noted. In this paper, the ability of gold to dynamically hedge against inflation is examined for various holding periods using the continuous wavelet transformation. Gold is first established as both a short- and long-term hedge against realized inflation for a number of developed economies. Dynamic analysis demonstrates that these hedging properties are not limited to a single historical cohort. Next, gold is shown to comove with unexpected inflation across all countries examined, albeit with some variation in the direction of the relationship. Finally, the capacity of both gold futures and gold stocks to act as a hedge against inflation is demonstrated.     

How important is the financial sector to price indices in an inflation targeting regime? An empirical analysis of the UK and the US

This paper investigates whether there are benefits in terms of higher economic stability from incorporating stock prices into the price index targeted by the central banks. It also looks into the question of whether central banks should use stock prices as a component of the output stability index and how the index can be constructed. An optimization technique is employed to estimate weights for the various sectoral prices. The obtained weights, which depend on sectoral parameters, differ from those used in the construction of the consumer price index, CPI. Using data from the UK and the US, our analysis demonstrates that in comparison to the CPI, our measure of inflation leads to a higher output stability. Thus, in an inflation-targeting monetary policy environment, it is important to adopt a broader inflation benchmark than the CPI for the general macroeconomic stability.     

Are common stocks a good hedge against inflation? Evidence from the Pacific-rim countries

We explore whether the observed real stock return–inflation relations in the U.S. and 10 Pacific-rim countries for the sample period of 1970–1997 can be explained by the interaction between real and monetary disturbances. Ten countries exhibit a negative relation between real stock returns and inflation. Malaysia is the only country that exhibits a positive relation. For nine countries, real output disturbances drive a negative stock return–inflation relation, while monetary disturbances yield a positive relation. In addition, real shock components appear to be relatively more important than monetary shock components for these countries, and as a result the observed relation between stock returns and inflation is negative. Neither the tax hypothesis nor the monetary regime hypothesis seems to be easily compatible with the diverse experiences of the Pacific-rim countries.     

Bias in Federal Reserve inflation forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve irrational or just cautious?

Inflation forecasts of the Federal Reserve seem to have systematically under-predicted inflation from the fourth quarter of 1968 until Volcker's appointment as Chairman, and to systematically over-predict it afterwards until the second quarter of 1998. Furthermore, under quadratic loss, commercial forecasts seem to have information not contained in those forecasts. To investigate the cause of this apparent irrationality, this paper recovers the loss function implied by Federal Reserve's inflation forecasts. The results suggest that the cost of having inflation above an implicit time-varying target was larger than the cost of having inflation below it for the period since Volcker, and that the opposite was true for the pre-Volcker era. Once these asymmetries are taken into account, the Federal Reserve's inflation forecasts are found to be rational.     

Work and Babies

Four best friends met at the hospital since their wives were giving births to their babies. The nurse came up to the rst man and said, "Congratulations, you got twins." The man said, "How strange, I’m the manager     

Partners and Competitors

The United States and China are entering an entirely new and complex era in their economic relationship. In a nutshell, China is both partner and competitor, and simplistic efforts to cast the complexity of U.S.-China economic relations as either one of partnership or competition are unhelpful to the development of     

Of stars and galaxies – Co-authorship network and research

We examine the association between network centrality and research using the accounting research community setting. We establish co-authorship network using papers published in the five top accounting journals from 1980 to 2016. We find that the co-authorship network in accounting is a “small world” with some most connected authors playing a key role in connecting others. We use machine learning to label published papers with multiple topics and find patterns in topics over time. More importantly, we find that co-authorship network centrality is positively associated with future research productivity and topic innovation and that the impact of centrality on productivity is higher with more senior authors. Further, centrality of an author’s co-authors also has an incrementally positive impact. We conclude that network centrality positively influences research output.     

Sand and Stone

A story goes that two friends were walking through a desert. During some point of the journey they had an argument, and one friend slapped the other one in the face. The one who got slapped was hurt. But without saying anything, he wrote in the sand with his finger： ＂TODAY MY BEST FRIEND SLAPPED ME IN THE FACE. ＂     

Corruption and the shadow economy: like oil and vinegar, like water and fire?

From a theoretical point of view, the relationship between corruption and the shadow economy is ambiguous: They can either be substitutes or complements. This paper contributes to this debate by using a structural equation model with two latent variables to extract information on various dimensions of corruption and the shadow economy. Analyzing a sample of 51 countries around the world over the period 2000 to 2005, we present empirical evidence for a complementary (positive) relationship of corruption and the shadow economy.     

An examination of state and local government pension underfunding – Implications and guidance for governance and regulation

State and local government pension underfunding has become a major focus of public policy debate due in large part to recent Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) actions that have brought national attention to the issue. The extent of these plans underfunding has been debated, along with the necessity for state government intervention and the level of regulatory actions that should be enacted by state legislatures. State and local public pension plans do not fall under the enumerated powers of the federal government in the Constitution and are therefore left to each individual state to regulate. The amount of plan underfunding and enacted public policy by state varies greatly. Additionally, in contrast to numerous state balanced-budget laws, legal directives for fully funding public pensions are virtually non-existent. This paper analyzes the state and local public pension crisis, examines current and long-term risk, studies public employee fiscal conditions, considers the societal impacts of these plans, considers the strengths and weakness of pension plan types, recommends public policy and regulation, and offers strategies for managers, board members, and public officials to adopt.     

CEO stock options and analysts’ forecast accuracy and bias

This paper investigates the relationship between CEO stock options and analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy and bias. A higher level of stock options may induce managers to undertake riskier projects, to change and/or reallocate their effort, and to possibly engage in gaming (such as opportunistic earnings and disclosure management). These managerial behaviors result in an increase in the complexity of forecasting and hence, less accurate analysts’ forecasts. Analysts’ optimistic forecast bias may also increase as the level of stock options pay increases. Because forecast complexity increases with stock options pay, analysts, needing greater access to management’s information to produce accurate forecasts, have incentives to increase the optimistic bias in their forecasts. Alternatively, a higher level of stock options pay may lead to improved disclosure because it better aligns managers’ and shareholders’ interests. The improved disclosure, in turn, may result in more accurate and less biased analysts’ forecasts. Our empirical evidence indicates that analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy decreases and forecast optimism increases as the level of CEO stock options increases. This evidence suggests that the incentive alignment effects of stock options are more than offset by the investment, effort allocation and gaming incentives induced by stock options grants to CEOs.     

High and Low Voice

"Can you explain to me what the difference is between a high-pitched and low-pitched voice?" "A high-pitched voice is when my father scolds me     

Analysts’ forecast revisions and firms’ research and development expenses

This study examines whether reported values for firms’ research and development (R&D) affect analysts’ annual earnings forecast revisions following quarterly earnings announcements. Because R&D introduces uncertainty into earnings forecasts, analysts may benefit from additional information searches in an effort to increase forecast accuracy. Also, accounting standards mandate an immediate expensing of R&D, in essence projecting a zero value for the R&D. To the extent that R&D will produce future payoffs, the expense treatment reduces the informativeness of reported earnings for forecasting future earnings. Thus, the marginal benefit of analysts’ efforts to produce more information may increase with the magnitude of the R&D component of earnings announcements and trigger additional forecast revisions. Alternatively, if the cost of information searches exceeds the benefit, analysts’ forecast revisions may decrease. Our results show a positive relation between R&D expenses and analysts’ forecast revision activity. We also find a positive and significant association between the level of R&D expenses and the magnitude of analysts’ forecast revisions following quarterly announcements. These results point to a greater amount of analyst scrutiny when reported earnings are accompanied by high levels of R&D expenses.

True and Fair View Revisited – A Reply to Alexander and Nobes

This paper is a response to the critical comments of Alexander (2006) and Nobes (2006) on our article on revenue recognition, which was published last year in this journal (Wüstemann and Kierzek, 2005). While Alexander primarily objects to our statement that there is a ‘requirement of legal certainty in the European Union’, Nobes challenges our interpretation of the true and fair view principle and its role in the endorsement and application of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in the EU. We rebut Alexander's objections by providing references, which evidence that the principle of legal certainty represents a fundamental concept of Community law. We refute Nobes' counterarguments by inferring from the objective of the IAS Regulation and the purpose of the endorsement mechanism that a common meaning of the true and fair view principle must exist in the EU, that IFRS should only become applicable in the EU if they are not contrary to this ‘European’ true and fair view principle and that the true and fair view principle should also be considered in the application of IFRS in the EU, particularly in the choice of accounting policies for unregulated issues.     

Do religiosity and political beliefs affect female representation and firm performance?

We investigate the effect of the community values surrounding a firm's headquarters on the percentage of women on a firm's board of directors. We use religiosity and political affiliation measures to capture the values associated with the community norms. We find that firms headquartered in counties with lower religiosity and a lower percentage of Republican voters are more likely to have a greater number of female board members. Furthermore, firms with more female directors located in more Republican areas or more religious cities are more likely to have lower valuations, as measured by Tobin's Q. These results have implications for corporate culture and the supply of female directors.     

Income Distribution and Aggregate Saving: Theory and China’s Evidence

Using a parsimonious heterogeneous-agent general equilibrium model, this study reveals a positive causal effect of income inequality on the aggregate saving rate. In the model economy, benevolent individuals save to leave offspring bequests. Since bequests are luxury, the rich have a higher marginal propensity to save. Then, else equal, a fall in income inequality will lower the economy-wide saving rate. The model predicts an augmented aggregate saving function: the aggregate saving rate depends positively not only on the aggregate income level, but also on the dispersion of income. We find some empirical support for this hypothesis using China’s province-level longitudinal data.