美欧债务危机应对政策的国际比较

金融危机后为刺激经济复苏,各国采取了非常态经济刺激计划,最终引发了债务危机。此次欧债危机是复合型危机,既是债务危机,又是政治危机与社会危机。长期以来,由于多数欧洲国家都面临经济增长缓慢、福利开支较高、人口老化严重的问题,财政压力一直都比较大。再加上受金融危机冲击较大,欧元区的经济和政治体制性缺陷,因此演变成主权债务危机。面对债务危机,各国采取不同的应对政策,通过对美欧债务危机发生的原因及应对债务危机政策比较,从中得到对中国的启示。     

我国财政支出结构对经济增长的影响研究——基于两次金融危机期间的比较分析

本文通过对我国在东南亚金融危机和次贷危机引发的全球金融危机中财政支出结构变化对经济增长影响的实证研究,研究结果显示:在两次金融危机中,财政支出结构性指标对经济增长的影响结果迥异;在现行财政体制下试图单纯依靠扩大财政支出规模来促进经济增长的效果已十分有限;今后应把稳步推进公共财政转型、努力实现公共财政均等化和进一步优化财政支出结构作为财政体制改革的重点.     

欧债危机是各种矛盾的综合结果

出处:《中银财经述评》(第107号),"欧美债务危机的异同和发展趋势"除金融危机催化和加剧债务危机负担外,欧债危机的根源更多在于欧元区自身货币环境、经济政策以及经济结构等层面所累积的问题。货币环境方面,在欧洲走向货币联盟过程中,欧元区各国尤其是非核心国利率大幅下调。利率下跌为公共及私营     

浅析后危机时代河北省对外贸易发展战略

世界金融危机爆发已经有三年时间,在世界各国政府积极救助和协调下,各国经济逐步回暖.对外贸易也慢慢走向正轨,后金融危机时代的世界经济格局迎来了新的重组和变革.但是伴随着经济复苏,后危机时代也呈现出很多不确定因素,一些发达国家和地区的经济出现了增长乏力、主权债务危机等经济现象,加之国内人民币升值压力以及劳动力、原材料、燃料...     

历次主权债务危机的成因与启示

主权债务危机是指一国政府不能及时履行对外债务偿付义务的违约风险.历次主权债务危机的成因有诸多相似之处,如大量举借外债,财政支出居高不下,税收锐减,经济结构脆弱,采取固定汇率制度,外部经济环境恶化等.本文比较分析了1980年代拉美、2001年阿根廷、2009年迪拜和2010年希腊主权债务危机的成因,并提出对我国的若干启示.     

财政“自动稳定器”为何失效?

自动稳定器若要发挥作用,需要一对齿轮。财政收入是其中一个齿轮,另一个齿轮则是财政支出。在号称百年一遇的金融危机中,各国政府发挥了神奇的救市功能。然而,希腊债务危机提醒人们,即使是政府的钱袋子也会出问题,各国于是纷纷开始对自身财政状况进行体检。     

从金融危机到债务危机的规律文献综述

世界各国爆发的金融危机和债务危机在表面上看各不相同,但历次危机通常都会表现出一些共同的规律。本文旨在梳理历次主权债务危机、金融危机的特征以及两者之间的内在关系。     

从金融危机到债务危机的规律文献综述

世界各国爆发的金融危机和债务危机在表面上看各不相同,但历次危机通常都会表现出一些共同的规律.本文旨在梳理历次主权债务危机、金融危机的特征以及两者之间的内在关系.     

基于刺激计划视角的主权债务危机与财政安全

2009年全球经济出现了脆弱复苏,但2010年又笼罩在主权债务危机的阴影下,未来经济走势的不确定性加大.主权债务危机的发生与金融危机中各国推出的非常态经济刺激计划紧密相关,刺激计划实施后,政府赤字和公共债务水平飙升,而缓慢的经济复苏不足以支撑如此庞大的赤字和债务.当前,中国财政安全同样受到严重威胁,4万亿经济刺激计划暗藏财政风险,地方政府债务特别是隐性财政负担问题日趋严重.必须以此次主权债务危机为契机,及时有效分散化解财政危机隐患,构建可持续财政体系.     

欧洲主权债务危机的现状及经济前景展望

在全球金融危机的背景下,各国政府为刺激经济增长而相继采取扩张性的财政政策和宽松的货币政策,欧盟也不例外。希腊的债务困境所引发的欧洲主权债务危机本质上是政府预算赤字规模过大造成的。本文重点分析欧洲主权债务危机的现状并对经济的前景进行展望。     

How the German government responded to the financial,economic and fiscal crises

This paper explains the German government's response to the financial, economic and fiscal crises. It covers the financial crisis in 2008 when banks were supported (SoFFin), the economic crisis in 2009, and the fiscal crisis of increasing state debts and budget deficits which caused the German government to cut spending (Sparpaket) in 2010. The author looks at the contents of the government's responses, but also at the political and administrative aspects of the government's decision-making processes.     

The Government Spending Multiplier in Turkey

This study aims to measure the size of the government spending multiplier in Turkey for post-2001 financial crisis period within a structural VAR framework. The analysis demonstrates that a positive shock to government spending tends to increase output, tax, and real interest rate on impact and the size of the fiscal multiplier is relatively large at first few quarters. The fiscal multiplier reaches a peak value of 1.5 at second quarter and then starts to diminish. Furthermore, investigating the effects of the components of government spending reveals the fact that government investment expenditures, rather than consumption expenditures, have a profound impact on output at first few quarters.     

Assessing long-term fiscal developments: A new approach

We use a new approach to assess long-term fiscal developments. By analyzing the time-varying behaviour of the two components of government spending and revenue - responsiveness and persistence -, a feature not captured by automatic stabilisers, we are able to infer about the sources of fiscal deterioration (improvement). Drawing on quarterly data, we estimate recursively these components within a system of government revenue and spending equations using a Three-Stage Least Square method for eight European Union countries plus the US. The results suggest that significant changes in the fiscal stance (including those related to the current crisis) are reflected in the estimates of persistence and responsiveness.     

Fiscal Policy Shocks in the Euro Area and the US: An Empirical Assessment*

We analyse the impact of fiscal policy shocks in the euro area as a whole, using a newly‐available quarterly data set of fiscal variables for the period 1981–2007. To allow for comparability with previous results on euro‐area countries and the US, we use a standard structural vector autoregressive (VAR) framework, and study the impact of aggregated and disaggregated government spending and net‐tax shocks. In addition, to frame euro‐area results, we apply the same methodology for the same sample period to US data. We also explore the sensitivity of the results to the inclusion of variables aiming to control for underlying financial and fiscal conditions. The main new findings are that: expansionary fiscal shocks have a short‐term positive impact on GDP and private consumption, with government spending shocks entailing, in general, higher effects on economic activity than (net) tax reductions; output multipliers to government expenditure shocks are of similar size in the euro area and in the US; the persistence of a fiscal spending shock is higher in the US than in the euro area, which appears to be related to military spending in the US; and fiscal multipliers have increased over the recent past in both geographical areas.     

Macro‐Fiscal Volatility and the Composition of Public Spending*

Earlier empirical literature has examined some long‐ and medium‐term aspects of macro‐fiscal volatility while leaving its short‐term fiscal impact unexplored. To help fill that gap, we examine the impact of macro‐fiscal volatility on the composition of public spending. To that end, we analyse a panel of 10 EU countries during 1991–2007. Our results suggest that increases in the volatility of regularly‐collected and cyclical revenues such as the VAT and income taxes tend to tilt the expenditure composition in favour of public investment. In contrast, increases in the volatility of ad hoc taxes such as capital taxes tend to favour public consumption spending, albeit only a little. We interpret such volatility innovations as conveying news to the fiscal policymaker about the underlying economic conditions, with especially regularly‐collected and cyclical taxes prompting short‐term cyclical fine‐tuning.     

How the UK government responded to the fiscal crisis: an outsider's view

This article presents an outsider's view of the UK government's response to recent financial, economic and fiscal crises. The article covers the financial crisis in 2008 when the then New Labour government rescued UK banks; the economic crisis in 2009 which resulted in economic stimulus measures; and the fiscal crisis of increasing national debts and budget deficits which led the newly-elected coalition government in 2010 to take fiscal consolidation measures. The author is an administrative scientist, and unpicks government responses, focusing on the political and administrative aspects of the governmental decision-making processes. The article ends with some lessons and foreign perspectives.     

Fiscal Decentralisation and Local Economic Growth: Evidence from a Fiscal Reform in China

This paper uses a fiscal decentralisation reform in China – namely, the province‐managing‐county (PMC) reform – to examine the effects of fiscal decentralisation on local economic growth. The PMC reform abolished the subordinate fiscal relationship between prefectures and counties and transferred much of the tax and spending authority from the prefecture to the county level. Exploiting a county‐level panel data set over 2001–11, we find that the reform has led to a significant increase in the GDP growth rate. The effect is considerably more pronounced in regions with superior initial institutional quality. We also identify channels: the PMC reform induced county governments to exert lower tax burdens on firms and increase spending on infrastructure construction.     

How the Dutch government responded to financial,economic and fiscal crisis

This article describes how the Dutch government responded to that country's financial, economic and fiscal crises. The article covers the financial crisis in 2008 when the Dutch government took measures to support and save banks; the economic crisis in 2009, which forced the government to take economic recovery measures; and the resulting fiscal crisis of increasing state debts and budget deficits which led the incoming government in 2010 to begin cutbacks in public expenditure.     

财政竞争、地方政府政策选择与经济增长——基于中国省际面板数据的实证研究

分税制背景下财政分权体制使得地方政府之间存在着激烈的财政竞争,其典型特征表现为税负、公共投入支出和公共服务支出三种政策工具之间的策略互动,从而影响各地区的经济增长。基于1997～2009年中国省级面板数据,通过估计交互项系数的符号,结果发现:地方政府的三种政策工具是相辅相成的;交互项的作用也存在着地区的差异;税负、公共服务支出和公共投入支出对经济增长有着不同的边际影响。     

Financial Crisis, Fiscal Policy, and the 1995 GDP Contraction in Mexico

In 1995 Mexico experienced its largest contraction of gross domestic product (GDP) since the early twentieth century. I propose a simple mechanism to partially account for the contraction: the effects of changes in fiscal policy. The contraction of GDP was preceded by a financial crisis. The government responded by raising taxes and reducing spending. Using a model with taxation and government consumption, and the business cycle accounting methodology, I measure the impact of fiscal policy. Fiscal policy accounts for 20.7% of the fall in output.