Creativity and dysfunction in strategic processes: The case of scenario planning

This paper attempts to open up a new line of enquiry into the dysfunctions of creativity within strategic processes. Generally, the impact and results of introducing creativity (and innovation) into organisational life are perceived to be wholesome and beneficial. But recent research in the area of organisational psychology has documented a ‘dark’ side to its introduction, e.g., low employee morale, stress, theft, sabotage, destructive conflict. Learning from this work and shifting the domain to strategic management, this paper focuses on scenario planning—a strategy process widely regarded by participants and facilitators as creative and innovative in structure, content and output. First, the creative credentials of the process are established with reference to the literature and definitions from the creative and cultural industries. Second, the process is deconstructed into activities and each is examined for the extent of its embedded creativity. Third, informed by case evidence, four dysfunctions of the scenario planning process are conjectured: creativity layered on fantasy; heightened expectations and confusion; pride and passion; and creativity leading to excess. The paper concludes by suggesting four options for handling these potential dysfunctional effects and, in the light of the dialogue presented, re-interprets the definition of scenario planning presented earlier in the text.     

Critical and strategic factors for scenario development and discontinuity tracing

This paper discusses the contribution of critical and strategic factors to three open questions in scenario development and futures research: discontinuities, multi-dimensionality in scenarios, and communicating and learning about change and complexity. It is observed that discontinuities do not necessarily take the form of rapid breaks within one single field. The term “hidden discontinuity” is employed to describe developments that arise from (a) the combination of several trends that may each be unspectacular or (b) gradual, long-term processes. The second open question concerns the tension between the need to work in multi-dimensional spaces while also keeping complexity manageable and selecting “representative” futures. The third problem concerns difficulties to recognize, accept and communicate the above two effects (a) and (b). After discussing these questions, two examples of recent scenario studies are used to illustrate how the identification of critical factors can contribute to identifying meaningful discontinuities and meaningful subsets within the multidimensional space of possibilities, and to learning about the scale and scope dimensions of long-term change processes and the impact of the interplay between different fields.     

Exploring the relationship between scenario planning and perceptions of learning organization characteristics

This article attempts to verify some assumptions evident in the scenario planning literature through the application of quantitative measures. The Dimensions of the Learning Organization Questionnaire is used to measure participant perceptions of the learning organization characteristics pre- and post-scenario planning intervention. Results are discussed, limitations are identified and clarified, and conclusions are drawn with speculations and refinements for future research.     

First steps: towards purposeful activities in scenario thinking and future studies

In this paper, we contribute to the understanding of the field of scenario development and future studies, which has been a key debate in Futures over the past three of four years. Our contribution is less on the philosophical issues surrounding future studies, but more on the hurdles faced by those interested in practising in the area of scenario planning and future studies. The issues presented and discussed in this article arise from a number of action learning research projects that we have conducted with small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in Scotland, who have embraced scenario development for the first time as part of their strategic management and learning process.Our contribution is targeted at identifying and understanding the hurdles to be overcome when (such) organisations consider adopting scenario development or future studies. The contribution is designed to first, help those in the field of scenario development and future studies be mindful of these hurdles and to build a trusting relationship between the scenario practioner and the client, and secondly, help those managers willing to engage in such activities to better understand the purpose of such work.First we identify three key hurdles: (a) organisational culture (i.e. tacit assumptions on scenario development and future studies); (b) “client” state of mind; (c) fear of engaging with the outside/fear of the future. We argue that these hurdles are a serious threat to the relevance and effectiveness of futures work. We argue that these hurdles need to be better understood as a basis for improving the impact and contribution that scenario development and future studies can make.Later in this article we propose a framework to help understand the purpose of scenario development or future studies work. This framework can be used at the outset of any engagement or study, to help the “client” to identify the purpose of such work and to understand its role and scope. We argue that this framework contributes to more purposeful, relevant and actionable scenario development and future studies in the future.Unless you changed something in the minds of managers, a scenario project had failed (Harvard Bus. Rev. 63(6) (1985) 139). Going one-step further, we would argue that unless something tangible happens as the result of the scenario development and future studies work, we have wasted our time.     

Structure in creativity: An exploratory study to analyse the effects of structuring tools on scenario workshop results

Scenario projects increasingly combine quantitative models with qualitative, participatory products in order to make scenarios more coherent, relevant, credible and creative. A major advantage of adding participatory, qualitative scenarios is their ability to produce creative, innovative, non-linear products. Integrating participatory results with quantitative models, however, can lower their credibility of both products when they are not consistent. The low level of structure in most participatory output limits possibilities for linking them to quantitative models. More structure could be introduced, but this might hamper the creativity of the workshop results: outcomes (process) and outputs (storylines). This paper tests a new method to analyse the creativity of scenario storylines in order to analyse the effects of structuring tools on the creativity of workshop results. Both the perceptions of participants and the resulting storylines of nine case studies across Europe are used in the analysis. Results show that the use of structuring tools can have a negative effect on the creativity of the workshop, but the influence seems to vary between the different tools. The study shows the benefit of using indicators for the scenario quality criteria. More research is needed to develop indicators for other scenario quality criteria, to improve those developed here and to study the impact of structuring tools with a larger data set.     

Experience, instruction and knowledge acquisition: a study in taxation

This study examines the effects of direct work experience, gained through internships and cooperative educational experiences, on subsequent knowledge acquisition. In particular, theoretical and empirical research in education, cognitive psychology and accounting suggests that experienced individuals develop organizational knowledge structures which allow them to better assimilate new information into memory than inexperienced individuals. Consistent with this notion, the research investigates whether the benefits of prior direct work experience on knowledge acquisition is a function of the nature of the learning tasks (structured versus unstructured) used in subsequent educational experiences.As hypothesized, the results indicate that inexperienced subjects were assisted to a greater extent in the knowledge acquisition process by structure oriented tax return preparation tasks than by relatively unstructured tax research assignments. Also consistent with expectations, the opposite was true for experienced subjects. When experienced subjects were provided with instruction supplemented by unstructured tax research assignments, they demonstrated a greater level of tax knowledge than when assigned structured tax return problems. Further, the knowledge level of experienced subjects was found to be greater than that of inexperienced subjects only when unstructured tax research assignments were provided. These findings suggest that all benefits of direct work experience on the knowledge acquisition process cannot be realized without the specific consideration of such experiences on the design of educational and firm training materials. Finally, the study also indicates that the benefits of direct work experience on subsequent knowledge acquisition are generally greater for individuals with low versus high learning aptitudes.     

Smart work and hard work: explicating a learning orientation in strategic management accounting

This paper examines the skills and aptitudes necessary to undertake a strategic management accounting project. It argues that individuals involved in such projects are required to work both smart and hard. This argument is developed theoretically by reference to the work of educational psychologists who have identified two different types of goal orientation which people pursue in achievement situations: the learning orientation and the performance orientation. Evidence that strategic management accounting requires a learning orientation is provided by means of a case study which describes its use in a competitive tendering situation. This is followed by a discussion of the potentially symbiotic relationship of strategic management accounting and organizational learning. The discussion leads to the specification of a research agenda that may have significant implications for the practice and learning of management accounting.     

Connecting adaptation and strategy: The role of evolutionary theory in scenario planning

In this study, evolutionary theory is used to analyze and critique the strategic process of scenario planning. We argue that scenario planning can be strengthened as a theory- and practice-oriented process through the incorporation of evolutionary theory in the scenario narrative process, and in the subsequent implementation phases in response to environmental change. First, this paper addresses scenario planning in relation to theoretical perspectives on strategic planning and forecasting. Then, the concepts of variation, selection, retention, organizational learning and inertia are used to analyze scenario planning as a strategic process. This study argues that because scenario planning mirrors modes of variation and selection at the organizational level, evolutionary theory is a useful approach for assessing the plausibility of scenario narratives and strengthening the theoretical foundation of scenario planning as a process. By utilizing an evolutionary framework throughout the scenario planning process, this method has a better chance of encouraging exploratory strategic thinking without reinforcing non-blind variation or inertial practices. Concepts including inertia can also be used to better address bias and myopia in the scenario planning process. Additionally, evolutionary theory can be used to assess how entities learn from the outcomes of scenario planning as the environment changes over time.     

FRA: Teaching Financial Accounting with a Goal-Based Scenario

This paper reports on the development of FRA (Financial Report Analyst), an intelligent, multimedia educational software system which is designed to teach financial statement analysis to business students and professional trainees. FRA is based on a new kind of teaching architecture called a goal-based scenario, a “learning by doing” environment in which the student acts in a realistic role and obtains helpful coaching while performing assigned tasks. In FRA, the student plays the role of a lending analyst at a bank who must make important commercial lending decisions. Usability tests of FRA have been conducted with students in the Kellogg Graduate School of Management at Northwestern University. The paper discusses: theoretical advantages of goal-based scenarios; the architecture of FRA; and ongoing and future research.     

Problematizing international business futures through a ‘critical scenario method’

This paper proposes the need for change in how managers in international business (IB) determine organisational objectives and what criteria they use in addressing complex problems. We propose a move from a largely firm-centric focus; on profit maximization and shareholder value; to a broader societal and environmental view. We see the educational context as the locus for initiating such a shift. However, we see obstacles within the canon of mainstream IB textbooks, with their focus on exposition of normative models of managerial action, illustrated by case studies of successful multinational enterprises (MNEs). Whilst we acknowledge their incorporation of critical issues, we view the lack of substantive critical reflection on the wider implications of IB activity as underpinned by an implicit assumption of the ‘good’ of IB. We posit that the normative structure of mainstream texts militates against students understanding the full range of possible futures for IB practice, and against developing the capability to cope with situations of uncertainty and ambiguity. Seeking to promote a critical pedagogy that accommodates consideration of both mainstream approaches and critical responses to these, we propose one approach to teaching and learning about IB futures that is based upon development of what we term ‘critical scenario method’. This offers a basis for active investigation of complex problems in the ‘real’ world from a range of perspectives, beyond that of profit maximization. We provide a worked, case example of our new method and demonstrate how it will enhance perceptions/understandings of involved and affected actors’ interests and their likely (re)actions as a particular scenario unfolds. The theoretical grounding for this approach is based upon contemporary social science interpretation of the Aristotelian concept of phronēsis, or ‘practical wisdom’.     

探析高校教学设计的发展方向

随着社会对高校培养的人才素质要求的提高和教学手段的多样化,学习理论发生了一些新变化,认知学派虽然保持了在教学设计中占优势的地位,但人们对于一味的强调认知而忽视情感并不满意,人本主义因此受到了前所未有的青睐,新崛起的建构主义对学习理论进行了革新,代表了学习理论的发展方向;学习理论是教学设计的心理学基础,它的变革必然导致教学设计向前发展。     

The critical role of history in scenario thinking: Augmenting causal analysis within the intuitive logics scenario development methodology

The historian Eric Hobsbawm stated that ‘The safest empirical generalization about history is still that nobody heeds its obvious lessons much’. Whether at a macroeconomic level or within individual organisations there are numerous examples of this, such as the economic crash of 2008, the causes of which had many parallels with those that caused the great depression 80 years previously. On the other hand however, overly-relying on the past as a guide to the future has its own obvious dangers—not least that important future events may have no past precedent. As such, the present paper firstly provides a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of using the past as a guide to the future. It then examines the role of history in scenario work, arguing that history should receive greater emphasis as part of the scenario planning process. We suggest changes to the standard Intuitive Logics (IL) approach to scenario planning which would render learning from history a more central component of the scenario process, in contrast to its current peripheral role. Rather than diminishing scenario planning’s ability to facilitate a consideration of how the future may differ from the past, we show how a greater emphasis on history can enhance consideration of the causality of future change. An adapted IL that has more emphasis on historical analysis can augment scenario planning’s effectiveness as a tool for consideration of the future.     

The world in 2050 and the New Welfare scenario

The PASHMINA (paradigm shifts modeling and innovative approaches) project grew out of the need to improve our understanding of the paradigm shift in the energy-transport-landuse nexus and, more broadly, in world development. In envisioning the world at 2050, we envisaged future growth in four possible directions: growth without limits, growth within limits, stagnation, and New Welfare. The scenario considered as preferable reflects a transition toward a New Welfare, characterized by a high level of cooperation, heightened concern for the environment and for social welfare, and an increased share of immaterial consumption. This scenario is based on the recognition that the development of new technologies – although relevant – turns out to be insufficient to resolve the issue of resource scarcity alone. Important behavioral changes are also needed. In the New Welfare scenario, GDP as a measure of growth becomes obsolete and needs to be replaced with ways of measuring progress that are more reflective of natural, human, and social capital. The New Welfare scenario also charts a pathway toward a low-carbon future, with an overall reduction in energy consumption, density, and intensity, and a greatly reduced reliance on fossil fuels. A new, smart electric grid facilitates active demand management and decentralized production of power. Natural gas or even small nuclear plants tackle problems associated with the intermittency of renewable energy sources. Among other likely shifts under this scenario is a re-conceptualization of production, from short-lived to longer-lasting goods and from private to open source knowledge products and services; growth in recycling and zero-waste processes; and a shift from profit-driven business to entrepreneurship that seeks to satisfy social needs and build local capital. The world undergoes a transition from unequal growth to prosperity in a multi-polar, globally interdependent world. New global democracy networks and institutions are created, and constitutions extend beyond the protection of human rights to the recognition of “nature rights.” Citizens’ income is tied to the social welfare-oriented duties and participatory governance. This scenario further leaves room to new forms of self-regulation of common resources. Actions necessary for the shift to the New Welfare paradigm include the adoption of new metrics for measuring progress, measures to increase public acceptance of technological and societal change, the creation of new global and local institutions devoted to sustainable management of shared environmental resources, sustainable production and consumption patterns, and a low-carbon energy and transport systems.     

Leveraging the synergies between design science and behavioral science research methods

For over two decades, information systems researchers have grappled with defining what constitutes good design science research. With too many older papers simply documenting the development of systems without a clear message of the contribution to science, design science fell out of favor with the information systems discipline. With the emergence of intelligent systems and the re-shaping of knowledge work, substantial effort has recently focused on articulating what constitutes a design science research contribution. In recent years, however, the discussion on the role of behavioral theory and behavioral research in complementing design science research has faded away. In this paper, we argue for a broader view on the synergies of behavioral and design science research with an emphasis on the greater role that behavioral science can take in shaping and validating design science research and motivating future research. We use the INSOLVE program of research as a proof of concept for how this synergistic relationship can be leveraged.     

Interactive multimedia teaching of Accounting Information System (AIS) cycles: Student perceptions and views

This paper describes the design and development of a CD ROM intended to assist students’ learning by bringing a sense of reality to the concepts studied in relation to accounting information systems cycles. The educational design is underpinned by constructivist theories of learning which espouse the benefits of experiential learning in facilitating effective student learning. Three Australian companies – Warner Brothers Movie World, Golden Circle and Zupps Parts – are featured on the CD ROM to provide virtual “experiential learning experiences” for students. An extensive evaluation of the CD ROM was conducted, involving both qualitative and quantitative methodologies, to ascertain students’ perceived value of the CD ROM in assisting their learning. Results indicate that the CD ROM offered students a real life understanding of applicable concepts and that students were receptive to learning in online environments which are appropriately designed and constructed.     

Creating narrative scenarios: Science fiction prototyping at Emerge

Scenarios are stories. In the diverse field of scenario planning, this is perhaps the single point of universal agreement. Yet if scenarios are stories, their literary qualities are often underdeveloped. Scenarios used in business and government frequently do not contain a relatable protagonist, move a plot toward resolution, or compellingly use metaphor, imagery, or other emotionally persuasive techniques of literature. In these cases, narrative is relegated to an adjunct role of summarizing the final results of the workshop. While this neglect of narrative may be reasonable in some contexts, the power of narrative should not be underestimated. Scenario planning methodologies can benefit from using diverse narrative techniques to craft compelling and infectious visions of the future. This article explores the relationship between science fiction and scenarios as story genres and investigates a creative story-telling technique, “Science Fiction Prototyping” (Johnson, 2011). While the method is promising, it is an ultimately problematic means to incorporating narrative into scenario planning.     

Accounting information systems research over the past decade: Past and future trends

This article reviews the extant accounting information systems (AIS) literature by conducting an analysis of AIS articles published in 18 leading accounting, management information systems, and computer science journals from 1999 to 2009 with a view to identifying whether or not the focus of AIS research has changed, and if so how it has changed, since the Poston and Grabski’s (2000) review of AIS research from 1982 to 1998. We also report our insights into where AIS research is likely to be heading in the future. We analyse each of the 395 articles identified as reporting AIS research to identify their underlying theory, research method and research topic. Our results confirm the continuing decline in analytical and model‐building research in AIS‐related research and this decline is associated with a similar decline in the use of computer science theory to motivate this research. We also find that two theoretical platforms, in particular, now account for almost half (48 per cent) of all AIS research: cognitive psychology and economics. Experimental research methods and archival studies continue to grow as the preferred methods for testing the AIS‐related theories derived from these theory domains.     

Changing organizational culture with scenario planning

This paper explores scenario planning as a tool to help change organizational culture. Changing the culture of the organization to adapt to changes in the environment is an important concern for most organizations—yet this change is often reactive. The authors present scenario planning as a proactive tool for developing alternative, possible cultures as an initial step toward effecting change. The following describes and clarifies the relationships between scenario planning and the cultural framework, along with research suggestions to determine the validity of this argument.     

Exploring the interaction between technology and morality in the field of genetic susceptibility testing: A scenario study

With the rise of genomics promises and concerns have emerged about future possibilities for screening of genetic susceptibilities to common diseases in the population. In this article we start from the assumption that for a better understanding of the future ethical implications of genetic susceptibility screening we need to address the interaction between technological and moral developments in society. We introduce a techno-ethical scenario approach and show how it may help us to explore more systematically potential future interactions between technological and moral developments in the field of genetic susceptibility screening. The first step is a historical account of population screening, focussing on the ways in which emerging practices of (genetic) screening have been mediated by an evolving moral landscape in our society. Based on this history we present a techno-ethical scenario of the future, showing how technological developments may shape conditions in our society in which the introduction and use of genetic susceptibility tests more and more become a matter of private decisions, reinforcing claims to individual self-determination as a deeply rooted value in the moral landscape of our society.