金融危机的原因以及中央银行在避免下一个危机所起的作用(英文)

最近一次的金融危机揭示了在大量信息不对称,金融尝新复杂和监管框架不完整这样的金融世界里,"自我调节"显然不能起到作用。本文认为,已经至少有两个主要政策影响着金融危机。一个是监督管理政策,另一个是货币政策。此外,本文还分析了中央银行能如何来帮助避免下一场财政危机。特别是,对于宏观审慎性政策的作用和限制进行了讨论。     

金融危机的原因以及中央银行在避免下一个危机所起的作用

最近一次的金融危机揭示了在大量信息不对称,金融尝新复杂和监管框架不完整这样的金融世界里,自我调节显然不能起到作用.本文认为,已经至少有两个主要政策彩响着金融危机.一个是监督管理政策,另一个是货币政策.此外,本文还分析了中央银行能如何来帮助避免下一场财政危机.特别是,对于宏观审慎性政策的作用和限制进行了讨论.     

Pursuing financial stability under an inflation-targeting regime

We evaluate two main views on pursuing financial stability within a flexible inflation-targeting regime. It appears that potential gains from an activist or precautionary approach to promoting financial stability are highly shock dependent. We find support for the conventional view that concern for financial stability generally warrants a longer target horizon for inflation. The preferred target horizon depends on the financial stability indicator and the shock. An extension of the target horizon favoring financial stability may contribute to relatively higher variation in inflation and output.      

Monetary and financial stability in the euro area: Pro-cyclicality versus trade-off

This paper investigates the nexus between monetary stability and financial stability. We examine, in the experience of EMU between 1994 and 2008, first, the response of the term structure of interest rates, share prices, exchange rates, property price inflation and the deposit–loan ratio of the banking sector (our proxies for financial stability) to changes in the consumer price level and ECB policy rate (our proxies for monetary stability); second, whether and to what extent lower inflation has caused share price stability and how ECB policy rate has reacted to inflation. Using a sign-restriction-based VAR approach, we find that there is a pro-cyclical relationship between monetary and financial stability in the long-run. With a positive inflation shock, we find on average a 2% estimated decline in share prices. This suggests that the interest rate instrument used for inflation targeting is conducive to financial stability.     

货币政策十大理论问题辨析

采取对比分析的研究方法,讨论了当前流行的有关货币政策10大理论问题,得出了有别于传统观点的新的结论:货币政策不等同于金融政策;存款准备金政策的真正价值不在于\"存在\"而在于\"实际应用\";货币政策与金融监管之间不是平行关系而是主从关系;货币政策4大目标之间不是并存关系而是继起关系等.在此基础上,结合中国实际提出了充分发挥货币政策结构性调控功能、财政政策与货币政策的组合搭配应审时度势、灵活运用的对策思路.     

Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro–macro approach

Evidence on central banks’ twin objective, monetary and financial stability, is scarce. We suggest an integrated micro–macro approach with two core virtues. First, we measure financial stability directly at the bank level as the probability of distress. Second, we integrate a microeconomic hazard model for bank distress and a standard macroeconomic model. The advantage of this approach is to incorporate micro information, to allow for non-linearities and to permit general feedback effects between financial distress and the real economy. We base the analysis on German bank and macro data between 1995 and 2004. Our results confirm the existence of a trade-off between monetary and financial stability. An unexpected tightening of monetary policy increases the probability of distress. This effect disappears when neglecting microeffects and non-linearities, underlining their importance. Distress responses are largest for small cooperative banks, weak distress events, and at times when capitalization is low. An important policy implication is that the separation of financial supervision and monetary policy requires close collaboration among members in the European System of Central Banks and national bank supervisors.     

资产价格波动与金融不稳定性:传导机制与政策选择

美国次贷危机之后,资产价格对经济金融稳定的影响受到广泛关注。本文首先指出,金融的不稳定性很大程度上根源于资产价格周期性的波动;然后从银行信贷、市场流动性、信息不对称以及非理性行为四个方面具体阐述了资产价格波动对金融稳定的影响机制;最后提出应对资产价格波动的政策建议,包括货币政策应该关注而非盯住资产价格、关注资产价格背后的信用扩张而非资产价格本身、监管部门应加快构建宏观审慎监管框架等。