International Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from Stock Prices

This paper analyzes intraday changes in firm‐level equity prices around interest rate announcements to assess the transmission of U.S. monetary policy to the global economy. We document that foreign firms on average are roughly as sensitive to U.S. monetary policy as U.S. firms, although we also find considerable cross‐sectional variation across firms. In particular, foreign stocks in cyclically sensitive industries show stronger responses to interest rate surprises, consistent with a demand channel of policy transmission. In addition, transmission of U.S. policy appears to be stronger to economies with fixed exchange rates. Evidence for a credit channel is weaker.     

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on transmission of monetary policy to financial markets

This study uses event-study methodology to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets, based on a sample of 37 countries with severe pandemics. Financial markets include government bond, stock, exchange rate and credit default swap markets. The results suggest that the emergence of pandemic has weakened the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets to a more significant degree. During our sample period following the outbreak of pandemic, neither conventional nor unconventional monetary policies have significant effects on all four of the financial markets. Of course, the unconventional monetary policies are slightly more effective as they can affect the stock and exchange rate markets to some extent. Therefore, in the post-pandemic period, if the monetary policy is used to stimulate financial markets, stronger policy adjustments, or other macro policies such as fiscal policies, may be needed to achieve the desired effect     

U.S. Monetary Policy and International Bond Markets

This paper analyzes how U.S. monetary policy affects the pricing of dollar‐denominated sovereign debt. We document that yields on dollar‐denominated sovereign bonds are highly responsive to U.S. monetary policy surprises—during both the conventional and unconventional policy regimes—and that the passthrough of unconventional policy to foreign bond yields is, on balance, comparable to that of conventional policy. In addition, a conventional U.S. monetary easing (tightening) leads to a significant narrowing (widening) of credit spreads on sovereign bonds issued by countries with a speculative‐grade credit rating but has no effect on the corresponding weighted average of bilateral exchange rates for a basket of currencies from the same set of risky countries; this indicates that an unanticipated tightening of U.S. monetary policy widens credit spreads on risky sovereign debt directly through the financial channel, as opposed to indirectly through the exchange rate channel. During the unconventional policy regime, yields on both investment‐ and speculative‐grade sovereign bonds move one‐to‐one with policy‐induced fluctuations in yields on comparable U.S. Treasuries. We also examine whether the response of sovereign credit spreads to US monetary policy differs between policy easings and tightenings and find no evidence of such asymmetry.     

Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound

We show that conventional dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) estimated on recent U.S. data severely violate the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates and deliver poor forecasts of future short rates. In contrast, shadow‐rate DTSMs account for the ZLB by construction, capture the resulting distributional asymmetry of future short rates, and achieve good forecast performance. These models provide more accurate estimates of the most likely path for future monetary policy—including the timing of policy liftoff from the ZLB and the pace of subsequent policy tightening. We also demonstrate the benefits of including macroeconomic factors in a shadow‐rate DTSM when yields are constrained near the ZLB.     

The interest rate effects of government bond purchases away from the lower bound

I analyze the recent experience of unconventional monetary policy in Sweden to study the interest rate transmission mechanisms of government bond purchases when interest rates are away from the lower bound. Using dynamic term structure models and event study regressions I find that government bond purchases have important portfolio balance and signaling effects. The signaling channel operates mainly by lowering short-rate expectations in the intermediate segment of the yield curve, while the portfolio balance channel is effective in lowering longer maturity term premia. In addition, I find that target interest rate policy and government bond purchases operate in different segments of the yield curve. This suggests that a combination of the two policies can be used to lower interest rates across the whole maturity spectrum, making monetary policy more expansionary.     

Macroeconomic cycles and the stock market’s reaction to monetary policy

This paper examines cyclical variation in the effect of Fed policy on the stock market. We find a much stronger response of stock returns to unexpected changes in the federal funds target rate in recession and in tight credit market conditions. Using firm-level data, we also show that firms that face financial constraints are more affected by monetary shocks in tight credit conditions than the relatively unconstrained firms. Overall, the results are consistent with the credit channel of monetary policy transmission.     

Evaluating the Macroeconomic Effects of the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies

We quantify the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank's unconventional monetary policies using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which includes a set of shadow interest rates. Extracted from the yield curve, these shadow rates provide unconstrained measures of the overall stance of monetary policy. Counterfactual analyses show that, without unconventional measures, the euro area would have suffered (i) a substantial loss of output since the Great Recession and (ii) a period of deflation from mid‐2015 to early 2017. Specifically, year‐on‐year inflation and GDP growth would have been on average about 0.61% and 1.09% below their actual levels over the period 2014Q1–17Q2, respectively.     

Fiscal Policy in a Currency Union at the Zero Lower Bound

This paper constructs a two‐country core–periphery New Keynesian model of a currency union to address the interaction between the objectives of regionally directed fiscal policy constrained by a single currency and the aggregate use of fiscal policy in face of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on policy interest rates. We identify an optimal path of aggregate and relative fiscal policy responses to a negative region‐specific demand shock. Our results show that (i) in a monetary union, the optimal policy response to an asymmetric reduction in demand concentrated in the periphery always entails a relative shift of fiscal expenditure toward the worse‐affected regions, (ii) though no aggregate fiscal response is required outside the ZLB, and (iii) optimal union‐wide fiscal policy is expansionary at the ZLB. Therefore, optimal policy always entails an expansion in the periphery at the ZLB, but the optimal fiscal response in the core regions can be either expansionary or contractionary depending on the parameters of the model. However, (iv) fiscal expansion in the core is warranted if the periphery cannot implement an expansion due to constraints on public spending.     

How successful are banking sector reforms in emerging market economies? Evidence from impact of monetary policy on levels and structures of firm debt in India

Many emerging markets have undertaken significant financial sector reforms, especially in their banking sectors, that are critical for both financial development and real economic activity. In this paper, we investigate the success of banking reforms in India where significant banking reforms were implemented during the 1990s. Using the argument that well-functioning credit markets would reflect a credit channel for monetary policy at work, we test whether a change in monetary policy has a predictable impact on borrowing behaviour of several types of firms, including business group affiliated, unaffiliated private firms, state-owned firms and foreign firms. The empirical results suggest that unaffiliated private firms have the most vulnerable to monetary policy stance during tight policy regimes. We also find that during tight monetary policy regimes, bank credit of smaller firms is more sensitive to changes in the interest rate than that of large firms. In an easy money regime, monetary policy and the associated change in interest rate does not affect change in bank credit, change in total debt and the proportion of bank credit in total debt for any of the firms. We discuss the policy implications of the findings.