Selling winners, holding losers: Effect on fund flows and survival of disposition-prone mutual funds

Recent studies suggest that presence of a disposition effect in a large subset of investors can create stock mispricings, which has serious implications for market efficiency. We examine whether US equity mutual funds are disposition-prone, how that effect influences performance, investor flows and fund survival, and whether the disposition orientation of mutual funds affects stock prices in a sustained manner.We find that about 30% of all funds exhibit some degree of disposition behavior and that such funds underperform funds that are not disposition-prone by 4-6% per year. Moreover, after controlling for performance, tax overhang and other factors that potentially affect flows, disposition-prone funds attract significantly smaller flows than other funds. The results suggest that mutual fund investors are smart enough to minimize investment in disposition-prone funds. Consequently, disposition-prone funds have significantly higher rates of failure than other funds, thereby reducing the impact of such trading behavior on security prices.     

Mutual Funds and Stock and Bond Market Stability

The unprecedented growth of mutual funds has raised questions about the impact of mutual fund flows on stock and bond prices. Many believe that the equity bull market of the 1990s is attributable to the huge flows of funds into equity mutual funds during this period and that a withdrawal of those funds could send stock prices plummeting. This article investigates the relationship between aggregate monthly mutual fund flows (sales, redemptions, and net sales) and stock and bond monthly returns during a 30-year period beginning January 1961 utilizing Granger causality and instrumental variables analysis. With one exception, flows into stock and bond funds have not affected either stock and bond returns. The exception is 1971–1981, when widespread redemptions from equity mutual funds significantly depressed stock returns. In contrast, the magnitude of flows into both stock and bond funds are affected significantly by stock and bond returns.     

中国公募基金挖掘了股票市场异象吗？

公募基金是我国重要的机构投资者之一,分析其投资逻辑对理解机构投资者行为和公募基金的选择至关重要。基于2005年至2019年主动管理偏股型开放式基金数据,本文检验了公募基金对A股市场87个异象因子的挖掘。为解决因子维度过大问题,本文采用非参方法从87个异象因子中提取有效信息的综合指标A-Score,并根据基金持仓构建基金的异象投资指标AIM(Anomalies Investing Measure)。结果显示:(1)中国公募基金挖掘了市场异象;(2)利用AIM可以选择表现更好的基金,并能获得0.45%的月度多空组合收益;(3)基金经理的选股能力、风格选择能力和风控能力是其挖掘异象收益的主要来源;(4)异象挖掘可以为基金带来长期资金流,同时也缓和了市场的错误定价。     

Relations between mutual fund flows and stock market returns in Korea

This paper analyses relations between stock market returns and mutual fund flows in Korea. A positive relationship exists between stock market returns and mutual fund flows, measured as stock purchases and sales and net trading volumes. In aggregate, mutual funds are negative feedback traders. Standard causality tests suggest that it is predominantly returns that drive flows, while stock sales may contain information about returns. After controlling for declining markets, the results suggest Korean equity fund managers tend to increase stock purchases in times of rising market volatility, possibly disregarding fundamental information, and to sell in times of wide dispersion in investor beliefs.     

The dynamics between stock returns and mutual fund flows: empirical evidence from the Greek market

This paper examines the interaction between mutual fund flows and stock returns in Greece. Specifically, we investigate the possibility of a causality mechanism through which mutual funds flows may affect stock returns and vice versa. The statistical evidence derived from the error correction model indicates that there is a bidirectional causality between mutual fund flows and stock returns. Cointegration results show that mutual funds flows cause stock returns to rise or fall. This may be explained by the fact that, in Greece, equity mutual funds are obliged by law to invest a certain percentage of their cash in stocks. Thus, inflows and outflows of cash in equity funds seem to cause higher and lower stock returns in Greek stock market.     

What determines mutual fund trading in foreign stocks?

We examine the portfolio rebalancing, measured by the equity churn rate, of mutual funds from 29 countries based on annual stockholdings over the 1999–2006 period. We find that funds more often trade the stocks of companies located in countries with higher degree of information asymmetry and are less familiar to fund managers, after we control for the effects of stock market development and investor protection. Consistent with the behavioral bias, fund managers more often rebalance stocks in foreign markets that perform well. This bias is exacerbated when fund managers are less familiar with and less informed about those markets.     

Mutual funds flows and the geography of contagion

This paper studies the dynamics and geography of investments made by international mutual funds located in advanced markets. I identify precise global and regional dynamics in equity and bond flows. Very few countries receive (or lose) funding in isolation. I also find strong evidence of global contagion: when financial conditions in developed markets change, emerging markets' funding is heavily affected. I illustrate this finding by deriving contagion maps showing where contagion spreads and with what intensity. In general, the results suggest that push effects from advanced market investors affect massively developing countries and expose them to sudden stops and surges.     

How smart is money? An investigation into investor behaviour in the Australian managed fund industry

Gruber [Gruber, M., 1996. Another puzzle: the growth in actively managed mutual funds. Journal of Finance 51, 783–810] and Zheng [Zheng, L., 1999. Is money smart? A study of mutual fund investors’ fund selection ability. Journal of Finance 54, 901–933] document that managed fund investors demonstrate fund selection ability as they invest in funds whose subsequent performance is greater than that of funds from which they divest. This phenomenon has been since been termed the ‘smart money effect’. In contrast, Sapp and Tiwari [Sapp, T., Tiwari, A., 2004. Does stock return momentum explain the ‘smart money’ effect? Journal of Finance 59, 2605–2622] find that after controlling for stock return momentum, there is no evidence of a smart money effect. In this paper, we investigate whether a smart money effect exists in the Australian managed funds industry. The key findings of our paper are that there is a smart money effect in Australia and that stock return momentum does not explain this effect. We also find that the effect is not conditional on fund size. Our cross-sectional analysis indicates that investors are chasing funds that have performed well in the past and that cash flows to funds are persistent. However, we do not find any evidence that investors are pursuing funds that employ momentum trading strategies.     

What Determines the Domestic Bias and Foreign Bias? Evidence from Mutual Fund Equity Allocations Worldwide

We examine how mutual funds from 26 developed and developing countries allocate their investment between domestic and foreign equity markets and what factors determine their asset allocations worldwide. We find robust evidence that these funds, in aggregate, allocate a disproportionately larger fraction of investment to domestic stocks. Results indicate that the stock market development and familiarity variables have significant, but asymmetric, effects on the domestic bias (domestic investors overweighting the local markets) and foreign bias (foreign investors under or overweighting the overseas markets), and that economic development, capital controls, and withholding tax variables have significant effects only on the foreign bias.     

Mutual fund flows,expected returns,and the real economy

This paper investigates the relation between mutual fund flows and the real economy. The findings of this paper support the theory that the positive co-movement of flows into equity funds and stock market returns is explained by a common response to macroeconomic news. Variables that predict the real economy as well as the equity premium – in particular dividend-price ratio, default spread, relative T-Bill rate and consumption-wealth ratio – are related to fund flows and can account for the correlation of flows and market returns. Furthermore, consistent with the information-response hypothesis, mutual fund flows are forward-looking and predict real economic activity.     

Evidence of herding and positive feedback trading for mutual funds in emerging Asian countries

When analysing the behavior of investors, the emphasis is usually on positive feedback and herding behavior, and the existing literature abounds with studies on the domestic strategy of mutual funds or on their impact. Due to the advantages in terms of the data, many studies investigate US data. However, with the increased flows of capital into emerging markets, studying the behavior of international mutual funds in emerging markets has become more and more important. Nevertheless, studies involving emerging markets are relatively rare. This study examines whether the positive feedback effect and herding behavior exist in Asian markets based on mutual fund data covering the period from 1996 to 2004. The long period enables us to test the sensitivities under the following four conditions, namely the capital volatility (volatile vs. stable), the degree of suffering during the Asian crisis (more suffering vs. less suffering), and the timing of the Asian crisis (pre-, during, and post-crisis), using the exchange rate regime. It was found in this study that mutual fund inflows into the Asian market were attracted by positive stock returns and currency appreciation. Furthermore, it was found that the positive feedback effect and herding behavior did exist in the Asian markets. However, the extent of the above behavior is not the same under different conditions.     

Should investors invest in hedge fund-like mutual funds? Evidence from the 2007 financial crisis

This study empirically examines the value added for investors during the 2007–2009 financial crisis from hedge fund-like equity mutual funds, including 130/30, market neutral, and long/short equity funds. We find that based on the information ratio, all market neutral funds, top 90% of long/short funds, and top 25% of 130/30 funds outperform a long-only passive index fund over the crisis period. However, we find little evidence of abnormal performance by the average and median funds in our sample, based on either unconditional or conditional four-factor alphas. The reason for the overall under-performance in the crisis period is that while short positions taken by these funds do generate alpha, the gain from their short positions is not sufficiently large to offset the loss from their long positions. Finally, the abnormal performance of short positions is found to be attributable to managers’ characteristic-adjusted and industry-adjusted stock selection skills. One implication of this study is that even though market neutral and long/short funds on average may not generate alpha, investors can benefit from holding these funds, especially the former, that can provide a hedge against down markets due to their low betas and that can be useful for asset allocation.     

Dividend or growth funds: What drives individual investors' choices?

We study dividend fund buying behavior using over 80,000 individual Chinese mutual fund investors from a private Chinese mutual fund account dataset. Based on a variety of specifications and logistic regressions, we empirically investigate investors' characteristics in choosing dividend-paying and/or growth mutual funds under different market scenarios. To the best of our knowledge, this research represents an initial attempt to study individual dividend investors in mutual fund markets. We find that older Chinese investors prefer dividend-paying funds less than growth funds, but this depends on different market conditions, and the age effect shows a nonlinear mode when considering age grouping. Moreover, investors' prior experience plays a crucial role in choosing the fund type; however, the conclusions vary with market scenarios. In addition, female investors prefer more dividend-paying funds than do male investors, but investing experience counteracts this difference. We also find that geographic location is a contributor when investors decide the fund type.     

Flight-to-liquidity,market uncertainty,and the actions of mutual fund investors

We explore the trading decisions of equity mutual funds during ten periods of extreme market uncertainty. We find that mutual funds reduced their aggregate holdings of illiquid stocks. Exploring the drivers behind this result reveals that this is mainly driven by larger withdrawals from funds that hold less liquid stocks. We further find that the sell-off of illiquid stocks occurred only after initial deterioration in market conditions, consistent with retail investors’ response to bad performance. At a broader level, this shows that mutual funds consumed liquidity during periods where liquidity was most valuable. Moreover, the fact that fund managers traded in response to these withdrawals suggests a potentially magnifying channel for the drop in illiquid stock prices, also known as flight-to-liquidity.     

Liquidity Dry-ups in equity markets

This paper examines how mutual fund investors’ demand for liquidity provision endogenously affects stock liquidity in the equity market. We find that actively managed funds in the US tend to hold less liquidity than their respective benchmarks, which leads them to rely on only a small fraction of liquid stocks when it comes to liquidity demand. Using mutual fund sell transactions, we further show that mutual funds tend to sell more liquid stocks in their holdings when experiencing outflows. Concentrated sales of liquid stocks, however, significantly reduce the liquidity of these stocks, resulting in liquidity deterioration or dry-up among highly liquid stocks in periods of high market-wide liquidity demand. Overall, the results indicate that mutual funds fail to predict the liquidity of the asset at purchase.     

Retail Financial Innovation and Stock Market Dynamics: The Case of Target Date Funds

Target date funds (TDFs) are designed to provide unsophisticated or inattentive investors with age-appropriate exposures to different asset classes like stocks and bonds. The rise of TDFs has moved a significant share of retirement investors into macrocontrarian strategies that sell stocks after relatively good stock market performance. This rebalancing drives contrarian flows across equity mutual funds held by TDFs, stabilizing their funding, and reduces stock returns for stocks disproportionately held by these funds when stock market returns are relatively high. Continued growth in TDFs and similar investment products may dampen stock market volatility and increase the transmission of shocks across asset classes.     

Pricing credit default swaps with bilateral value adjustments

The aim of this work is to examine the influence of mutual fund flows on market timing models, thus providing unbiased timing coefficients. However, as this control is motivated by the existing relationship between mutual fund flows and market returns, we first analyse this relationship, considering previous and concurrent market returns. However, unlike existing studies, we do not consider future returns, since investors do not observe them when making investment decisions. Thus, we feel it is more appropriate to consider expected market returns. We construct the expected market returns by running an AR model and considering the available public information about the macro-economy. The relationship is analysed under different conditions, considering a variety of different mutual fund flow measures, and considering (or not) the sensitivity of mutual fund flows to positive and negative market returns. We also propose different controls for the traditional timing models, and we further analyse the reverse-causality problem. The study demonstrates, for a sample of equity mutual funds registered for sale in the USA, that the poor market timing performance found in this and other prior studies can be completely attributed to the perverse effect of the fund managers’ liquidity service.     

The Determinants and Implications of Mutual Fund Cash Holdings: Theory and Evidence

In this article, I examine the determinants and implications of equity mutual fund cash holdings. In cross-sectional tests, I find evidence generally supportive of a static trade-off model developed in the article. In particular, small-cap funds and funds with more-volatile fund flows hold more cash. However, I do not find that fund managers with better stock-picking skills hold less cash. Aggregate cash holdings by equity mutual funds are persistent and positively related to lagged aggregate fund flows. Aggregate cash holdings do not forecast future market returns, suggesting that equity funds as a whole do not have market timing skills.     

Financial consequences of mutual fund mergers

This study examines the impact of mutual fund mergers on performance and investment flows of target and acquiring funds. Results indicate some improvements in the post-merger performance for target funds shareholders. Results also confirm prior evidence of negative net asset flows in target funds in the pre-merger period as well as negative, but not significant, net asset flows in the years following the merger. However, a more detailed analysis allows us to observe that this lack of significance in the negative reaction of investors to mutual fund mergers is explained by the compensation of abnormally high inflows and outflows in the resultant funds. These substantial flows are significantly above the average in their market segment, especially regarding money flows. This finding provides evidence that investors pay attention to mutual fund mergers, especially institutional investors who are concentrated on the market possibilities resulting from these organizational processes.     

Mutual fund advertising: Should investors take notice?

This research investigates the relationship between advertising, quality, and price in the mutual fund market, considering both equity and fixed income funds. The research considers these relationships based on the results for a time period following the advertisement. Given the complexity of the mutual fund purchase decision for investors, this research provides an initial investigation into whether investors can infer mutual fund quality and price from the presence of mutual fund advertising. Post-advertising period results show a negative relationship between advertising and fund quality, indicating that previously advertised funds exhibit weaker performance than nonadvertised funds. During the post-advertisement period, both equity and fixed income funds exhibit lower expenses (ie, price) than nonadvertised funds. These research findings and implications for theory are discussed.