Do credit rating agencies add to the dynamics of emerging market crises?

This study investigates the role of credit rating agencies in international financial markets. With an index of speculative market pressure it is analyzed whether sovereign ratings changes have an impact on the financial stability in emerging market economies. The event study analysis indicates that sovereign rating changes have substantial influence on the size and volatility of emerging markets lending. The empirical results are significantly stronger in the case of government's downgrades and negative imminent rating actions than in the case of agencies’ positive rating adjustments. Sovereign rating changes anticipated by market participants have a smaller impact on financial markets in emerging economies.     

The (un)informative value of credit rating announcements in small markets

This work examines the information value of local Israeli credit rating announcements. This matter is also important to other small markets, in which a debt issuer may take advantage of a “rating shopping” process or choose to avoid a rating procedure altogether, because the agencies do not carry out unsolicited rating. We analyze the bond and equity markets response to various rating announcements at different time periods. We find that except for downgrades in 2008–2009 the rating announcements have no information value. It seems that generally the market internalizes most of the information prior to the rating announcements.     

Credit ratings and the cross-section of stock returns

Low credit risk firms realize higher returns than high credit risk firms. This is puzzling because investors seem to pay a premium for bearing credit risk. The credit risk effect manifests itself due to the poor performance of low-rated stocks (which account for 4.2% of total market capitalization) during periods of financial distress. Around rating downgrades, low-rated firms experience considerable negative returns amid strong institutional selling, whereas returns do not differ across credit risk groups in stable or improving credit conditions. The evidence for the credit risk effect points towards mispricing generated by retail investors and sustained by illiquidity and short sell constraints.     

The Information Content of Ratings: An Analysis of Australian Credit Default Swap Spreads

We examine the information content of Australian credit rating announcements by measuring the abnormal changes in credit default swap (CDS) spreads. CDS spreads provide a direct view of credit quality and thus should impound information quickly when investors receive new credit risk related information via a rating event. Using an event study methodology, we show that watch downs and rating upgrades contain valuable information even after controlling for sources of contamination. We find that watch downs elicit statistically significant market reactions, while subsequent downgrades are anticipated. Upgrades are associated with a significant but small abnormal reduction in CDS spreads, whereas watch ups appear to contain no new information.     

A multicriteria discrimination approach for the credit rating of Asian banks

In this paper we develop a multicriteria decision aid model, to investigate whether it is possible to replicate the credit ratings of Fitch on Asian banks using publicly available data. The model is developed with the Multi-group Hierarchical DIScrimination (MHDIS) approach, following a tenfold cross validation procedure. Five financial variables are selected from a list of nineteen ones through factor analysis. An additional set of five non-financial variables covering ownership, corporate governance, auditing, strength of bank’s franchise and its banking environment is also being used. The results show that equity/customer and short term funding, net interest margin and return on average equity are the most important financial variables. The number of shareholders, the number of subsidiaries and the banking environment of the country in which the banks operate are the most important non-financial ones. In terms of classification accuracies, the results show that the MHDIS model can replicate the credit ratings of Fitch with a satisfactory accuracy and is more efficient than discriminant analysis and ordered logistic regression that are used for comparison purposes.      

Understanding credit ratings quality: Evidence from UK debt market participants

This study seeks to identify: (i) the demand for corporate bond ratings provided by credit ratings agencies (CRAs); (ii) how issuers select CRAs; and (iii) to better understand ratings quality, a term widely used by commentators, politicians and regulators, but under-explored in the academic literature. Interviews identify the principal source of demand for rating information is to reduce agency conflicts between issuers and investors. Issuers typically engage between one and three credit ratings agencies to rate their debt, implying a heterogeneous demand for ratings services, and different levels of ratings quality. However, ratings quality extends beyond competence and independence to include factors relating to professional judgment, communication, transparency, and the quality and continuity of analytic staff. Findings were discussed in the light of the ongoing international policy debate concerning CRAs.     

Explaining credit rating differences between Japanese and U.S. agencies

We compare credit ratings assigned to Japanese firms by the two leading U.S. rating agencies and the two leading Japanese agencies. Our goal is to investigate the complaint that the U.S. agencies Moody's and Standard and Poor's (S&P) ignore special corporate governance features of Japanese firms, i.e., keiretsu affiliation. We find that it is true that ratings of Japanese firms by the U.S. agencies are systematically lower than those assigned by Japanese raters. However, the reasons for the differences are not found to be related to keiretsu affiliation. Thus, we reject one of the prominent reasons for rating differences put forth by managers of Japanese firms. This leaves open the question of what drives the difference. The phenomenon is clearly consistent with more general home bias documented in previous work.     

The impact of sovereign credit ratings on Eurobond yields: Evidence from Africa

The importance of sovereign credit ratings and Eurobonds issued by governments have come to the fore in Africa in the last decade. We examine whether changes in sovereign credit ratings impact Eurobond yields in 8 countries over the period of 2014–2019. Our approach reviews rating changes impact on Eurobond yields utilising the event study methodology. Our findings reflect that, on average, close to a third of rating actions directly impact bond yields in African countries. The statistically significant events include the downgrades of South Africa and Namibia to non-investment grade in 2017 reflecting critical transitions and bond investors’ reactions. Overall, the low percentage of a third, relative to previous international studies, suggests that largely rating changes are anticipated, do not have much new information and perhaps the perceived power of credit rating agencies may be overstated. In our view, the results reflect that pre-announcements of rating review dates since 2014 makes rating actions predictable and less impactful to bond yields. In addition, they reflect that bond investors adjust in real time as new information come in, resulting in less reliance on the opinions of CRAs and using their own assessments.     

Testing excess returns on event days: Log returns vs. dollar returns

The results of academic and practitioners’ event studies are often translated from excess log returns into excess dollar returns. The prior literature argues for a difference between the statistical significance of excess log returns and that of excess dollar returns. In contrast, we show analytically and using simulations that specifying event study hypotheses in terms of excess dollar returns is equivalent to specifying them in terms of excess log returns. The prior literature’s result was due to a bias in the estimator of expected excess dollar returns, an incorrect assumption that it is approximately normally distributed, and a misapplication of the delta method.     

Quantitative easing and credit rating agencies

This paper investigates the behaviour of credit rating agencies (CRAs) using a natural experiment in monetary policy. We exploit the corporate QE of the Eurosystem and its rating-based specific design which generates exogenous variation in the probability for a bond of becoming eligible for outright purchases. We show that after the launch of the policy, rating activity was concentrated precisely on the territory where the incentives of market participants are expected to be more sensitive to the policy design. Our findings contribute to better assessing the consequences of the explicit reliance on CRAs ratings by central banks when designing monetary policy.